We're going to post Kevin's post draft issue of BABI Talk so that it has a permanent place somewhere in the cyberspace. As always, it's great stuff:
BABI Talk
Volume 2, Number 1
Post-draft issue.
Okay, this is a problem. I’m in first place after two weeks, having defied logic, physics and the Pecklers’ computer. Can we just quit now? But this puts me in a quandary as I contemplate this first issue of BABI Talk. How smart-alecky can I be without inviting scorn? Is it worse or better to critique from the top?
The way I figure it, I took my lumps last year and didn’t complain, so I’m entitled. And Ken assures me that my reputation is now intact as “an objective journalist.” Which is a nice way of saying nobody pays attention to my crap anyway.
First, a few general observations. Continuing a trend of recent years, three category players went for what were once four-category prices. Adam Dunn and Corey Patterson are good examples. Neither of them has ever hit for average and probably won’t this year, either. Both sold for $39. Indeed, one could argue that Dunn is a two-category player until he proves otherwise. (I may eat my words if he steals 20 bases as he boasted he would this spring.) I think this trend has developed in part because owners covet players who will dominate one category. Dunn is one of only three or four players capable of hitting 50 homers. You lock him up, it gives your team a great head start in the power categories. But these guys are definitely coming at a premium, and so far nobody who has paid these prices has won the league.
With Randy Johnson gone and Greg Maddux well past his prime, few starting pitchers command superstar prices. Roy Oswalt was highest at $31, well off the totals once paid for sure-thing ERA and Ratio eaters like Maddux and Big Unit.
The discretionary money nowadays is going to basestealers, even if they’re unproven. Examples: $17 for Jerry Hairston, $19 for Willy Taveras, and most remarkably of all, $24 for Dave Roberts. Roberts is hurt, hits for a poor average, contributes nothing in homers or ribbies, and may not even play if Xavier Nady keeps hitting so well. He’s a year or two away from being Tom Goodwin. But steals are at such a premium, he went for more money than all but a handful of outfielders. Supply and demand is an amazing economic determinant.
But let’s talk about the teams …
Hobo. Hank and Noel get my vote for best draft completed while half in the bag. That wine seemed to clarify strategy, or maybe just blurred their vision enough for them to get it right. Let’s see, is that a 5 or a 2 next to Alfonzo’s name? Hobo’s roster looks pretty tasty. They’re solid in most categories and if both Utley and Relaford play, they’ve got 13 everyday players. Relaford was a great late sleeper pick. I’m not sure you can compete in wins with only four starting pitchers, though. I see trades coming.
Lickers. As usual, Lou’s roster is full of bashers. Delgado, Thome and Dunn are a formidable trio, and he filled out the offense with some good late picks like Spivey and Nady at 10 bucks each. I can’t see where the steals are going to come from, and that pitching staff is a five-run inning waiting to happen. Capuano. Loaiza. Lidle. Reuter. These are not the names one associates with championships. These are the names one associates with exorbitant transaction totals. However, Lou must be congratulated both for drafting decently and for foiling Busch at several turns. You licked him for at least one day, Lou.
Busch. Unlike last year, when Jeff cherry-picked several productive players at below-market prices, he paid full value and perhaps more to fill out his team. Poor guy. He has to compete against the entire league on every player. Let’s face it, Jeff, you’re the Yankees and we’re everybody else. Although TQStats toys shows Busch winning the league, I think he’s vulnerable. There are a lot of unproven players here. Colorado or not, you have to wonder whether Closser, Holliday, Hawpe and Atkins are going to pan out. Hee Seop Choi seems to be regressing as a hitter. Polanco may get beat out of his starting position. Guzman could get 500 at bats and hit .220. Outside of Pujols and Beltran, there aren’t many sure things in Jeff’s offense. For that matter, his pitching staff isn’t likely to strike fear in opponents’ hearts, either. Then again, there’s always the strong possibility that Jeff knows something I don’t.
Old Rips. I like sitting within earshot of Mark during the draft to hear his mumblings about who is going for how much. My personal favorite is the “woooooo” sound he makes, followed by a barely audible “hee-hee-hee” when a particularly egregious bid comes forth. It’s like having a fun little soundtrack for the draft. This year, Mark was his usual self in every respect but one: his ability to assemble a good team. Among the hitters, three guys are going to have good years—Rolen, Glaus, Abreu. Two others, Walker and Hollandsworth, will be decent if they stay healthy, a big if. Beyond that, it’s a collection of has-beens and never-gonna-bes. Wil Cordero, Hector Luna, Jason Grabowski and Jeff Cirillo are worth $1 between them. Derek Lowe was a good buy at $13, but $7 for Julian Tavarez? Wooooooo.
Kuhns. The Falcones are going to get a lot of saves. And now on to the bad news. The Fullcans have 65 percent of their payroll locked up in five players. And two of them, Garciaparra and Wagner, are injury prone. Oops. Same problem here as the Rips ran into—too much reliance on cheapo fill-ins. Not much depth in starting pitching, especially if Vazquez continues his strange descent toward Chan Ho Park-ville. I heard somebody say Jeff Francis would be a $15 pitcher if he weren’t in Colorado. Maybe, but he is in Colorado. Prepare to duck.
Cartel. I’ll say one thing for Greg, he’s stingy with his money and seldom gets pulled into bidding wars. In the past, this has earned him bargains like Sean Casey, but this year none of his choices looks like an honest-to-God value. And the downside of this “never overpay” strategy is that it occasionally leads to situations where you pay extra for mediocre players while the real talent passes you by. Note Raul Mondesi at $19, Orlando Palmeiro (historically, a late-round $1 pick) for $5, and Adam Eaton for $14. (Although Eaton could pay off if he stays healthy all year.) Even if Tsao comes back strong Cartel is looking at next-to-last in saves. Beyond that, I see no glaring weaknesses and no particular strengths. That’s usually a recipe for middle of the pack.
Cappers. Is Brett Myers this year’s Oliver Perez? I had a feeling Myers was on the verge of a breakout, and was hoping to steal him for a dollar. George evidently had the same idea, and got him for $2, which has me kicking myself. He’s probably the best buy of the draft so far. George’s pitching staff is arguably the best in the league, led by Smoltz, Burnett, Myers, Pettitte and three closers. The Cappers have gotten great mileage from Vinny Castilla and Pat Burrell, but I’m not convinced either of them can sustain it. Burrell has a way of tearing it up for short stretches and then disappearing for weeks. We’ll see. Their hot starts have disguised an underlying weakness on offense--namely, a lack of fulltime players. I count only nine everyday guys, including two who are injured (Bonds and Cameron). That’s not enough ABs to stay competitive in the power categories. George will trade one of his closers for a hitter soon. And when he does, watch out. He’s a contender.
Any 9. When I saw Ken’s keeper list and noticed Rich Aurilia on it, I began to speculate on the possible reasons. 1. He lost a bet and this is his payment. 2 Aurilia has a rare beer can Ken really wants. 3. A large object fell on Ken’s head on the day he submitted his list. Nothing I could come up bore any prospect of Aurilia actually being worth $6. Or, come to think of it, $1. Nevertheless, Ken has a nice team here, well balanced on offense and pitching. He has a lot of riding on the arms of Willis, Odalis and the Rocket, though. If any of them falter, could be trouble. It will be interesting to see how Ken’s power numbers look when he gets Alou back. Right now, this is the area that looks weak.
As always, Ken will be super-aggressive in both the free agent and waiver market, and is likely to look much different by the All-Star break. I hear Rich Aurilia is available.
Bums. Strangely, Doug drafted several players who are not currently undergoing surgery. But just to keep tradition alive, he did get two injured pitchers, Brad Penny and Vicente Padilla. But what a bummer, no Rick Ankiel. Solid offense, although not much speed. Several guys with potential upside—Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, Pedro Feliz, etc. Is Doug allergic to saves? For the second year in a row, he appears to be writing off that category. Uh, Doug, you can’t win the league that way. Maybe Ricky Bottalico is the answer. And maybe Joan Rivers will play third for the Mets.
Bat. Oh, that Barry. He’s a sly one. This year, as we waited breathlessly to hear what player would serve as the linchpin of his go-for-broke strategy, the name came forth …. Victor Diaz! He joins Rob Mackowiak on the All-Underappreciated by Everybody Except Elder Barry Team. But I digress. Barry has a good line on closers for next year with Ryan Wagner and Mike Gonzalez. But what about this year? Well, put it this way: Mark Prior and Tim Hudson had better win 25 each. Barry has plenty of power, good speed, decent averages, and Victor Diaz. What more could he want?
Pecklers. Next year, maybe the Pecklers should go back to a Big Chief tablet and a No. 2 pencil. That computer didn’t do a whole lot of good. Actually, that’s too harsh. Josh and Seth made some savvy picks. Maybe. Which Cliff Floyd did they get—the always-injured underachiever, or the four-category guy waiting to break out? Which Mike Hampton did they get—the sinkerballing, tough-in-the-clutch competitor, or mister “here-hit-this-over-the-beer-sign?” Which Kaz Matsui did they get—the “next Ichiro” or the “next Shinjo?” Add enigmatic J.D. Drew and Milton Bradley, and the Pecklers have the All-Possibility Team. Could be real good. Could be real bad. Check back in July.
Pounders. Last season, as I wrote the inaugural issues of BABI Talk, I did so from the cellar. Let’s just say the view is a little better this year. Frankly, though, I’m not sure how strong this team’s legs are. Hot starts by Brady Clark, Randa, Valentin and Tucker have helped offset poor starts by Wigginton, Jenkins and Carlos Lee. Jeff Weaver is either a 20-game winner with electric stuff (see shutouts in games 1 and 3) or a batting practice bum (see game 2—line 3 IP, 8 ER). The other starting pitchers outside of Carlos Zambrano have to be considered question marks. And with only one closer, I can’t expect to finish better than 5th or 6th in saves. But I like my team a lot, didn’t seriously overpay for anybody, and have some potential bargains in Gonzalez ($22) and Randa ($13). It’s nice to be back.
Good luck to everybody, and I’ll see you at the All-Star Break for issue #2.
