Monday, February 15, 2010

2010 F

Pure BABI here. If you’re looking for the brilliant stuff, keep looking.

Our champion sent me an email asking for the Prestigious Pickled Pecklers’ annual roster analysis. OK, as soon as Dr. Tailgate writes it, I’ll edit and post it.

Don’t hold your breath.

I don’t have time to write stuff like that at this time of year. If I’m going to waste time during the tax season, I’m going to pick a subject I’m curious about. Here’s one.

One of the better rules changes we’ve passed was to increase extended farm contracts to $15 rather than $10. It’s not at all what I really want or wanted, but it’s a step in the right direction. A small step.

I’d like to eliminate the farm draft entirely. I don’t think that one is going to pass.

I’m a believer in eliminating any keepable contracts that are not created by some kind of auction, either a draft day auction contract or a FAAB bid, open to all. I think great farm players absurd contracts screw up the league. Of the 101 keepers last season, 30 had F contacts.

And I hate that I will not have a shot to own Ryan Howard until he’s 31 years old.

Kenny 9 has taken a lot of crap for the 30-2011F contract he slapped on Howard 3 years ago. If he doesn’t trade him, he’ll have owned Howard for 6 seasons. So far, it’s been pretty damned glorious*.

* This is from Vision Quest, a great, great movie about high school wrestling. J.C. Quinn, a character actor, has a brilliant soliloquy about seeing Pele on TV. It ends, “It’s not the 6 minutes. It’s what happens in those 6 minutes.” If you’ve read this far and have not seen Vision Quest, put it RIGHT NOW on your Netflix list. Hey, Madonna was in it, her 1st movie. Well, she sang in it.

I know Larry Dot Net and Boof insist Kenny 9 was an idiot for extending him so far, thereby ruining his trade value. I’ve felt all along that it was a great move, though I’m not sure I’d have had the stones to do it. Here is what he’s gotten for only $30 ever since he locked in that 2011-F contract:

2007 – 47/136/1/.268
2008 – 48/146/1/.251
2009 – 45/141/8/.279

He was 2nd, 1st and 3rd in homers in these years and 2nd, 1st and 1st in RBIs. Top 5 all three years in the MVP voting. He’s 243rd on the career homer list, and he’s only played 4-1/2 seasons. He’s 47th on the active list, ahead of J.D. Drew, Raul Ibanez, Miguel Cabrera and Jason Bay. He’s just behind Derek Jeter (46th), Nomar Garciaparra (44th), Cliff Floyd (43rd) and Mark Teixeira (41st). He’s averaging 49.5 homers and 143 RBIs per season during his 4 full seasons. Crazy, baby!

Kenny 9 locked him in at only $30, and now he’s got a big jump in the power categories. Who cares if he’s minimized his trade value? Kenny doesn’t plan to trade him. Ever. That would be my bet, except possibly as a dump trade in the summer of 2011. And hold on there – do you think he can’t trade him at 30-2011F right now?

One more thing – if he’d only raised him to $20, he’d be back in the pool now. Instead, he’s got 2 more of those potentially glorious years at only $30. Larry Dot Net stopped at 20-2011F on the other Ryan, Braun. In the first of his 3 contract years, Braun put up this line:

2009 – 32/114/20/.320

Look at that line! Now that is a true 4 category player. He’s superb in all 4 categories. Hell, he could improve all of those numbers in 2010 (except maybe BA). He’d go for $50 in the auction, easy. I’d say Larry screwed up by not locking him in longer. Do you think if Braun was 30-2013F that Larry couldn’t trade that contract?

That’s because Larry and others only see the $30. Kenny9 sees the 2013F, years of bargains, years of stats, years of competing his ass off. For him.

A number of farm players are now in their extension year. $5? $15? $20? More?

Here are the 2010F players:

Any 9 – Joey Votto
Bums – Clayton Kershaw
Cappers – Ian Stewart
EB Padres – Andy LaRoche and Chase Headley
Pecklers – Jay Bruce

They may all be extended, though I’m less excited about those 2 Padres. Thornton Melon would trade those guys in a heartbeat if he could. Bruce and Stewart both showed big power and lousy BA. Kershaw is a pitcher, and though he’s good, it’s always scary. It will be interesting to watch the owners make their decisions.

And then, of course, there is Kenny 9, with Joey Votto, the best of them all by far. Will he go balls out? Votto’s only 25 and he put up these numbers last season:

2009 – 25/84/4/.322, in only 131 games.

He did have those problems with depression, and it cost him games. I don’t know how to value that, but he did have a great excuse – he was a member of Any 9. He was afraid he’d get locked up in a 30-2014F contract, and like Ryan Howard, he’d have to live up to it. That’s pressure! Kenny had better hope Votto loves old beer cans.

Monday, February 01, 2010

The Real David Wins

A few years ago I got rid of my overpriced Warriors season tickets, and replaced them with season tickets to the USF Dons. I've got 4 tickets in row E at the mid-court line that cost me a grand for the season, total. Parking is free. Home by 9:15. It's a great local diversion.

USF Basketball has been pretty bad for quite a while.* Pretty Bad. The low point was the Eddie Sutton Era (lasting about a dozen horrid games) two seasons back. Sutton said the team had less talent than any team he had ever coached, and he's been around for a very long time. It was a mean spirited thing to say, but it was almost certainly true.

* At least they haven't been pretty bad as long as the Warriors, who have been bad since 1978.

Last year the school hired ex-Kansas All-American, ex-NBA first round pick, ex-player for Roy Williams and Chuck Daly and Pat Riley, Rex Walters. Walters is a young guy who has brought great spirit to the Hilltop. He could play. Apparently he can coach, too.

Saturday night, the Dons upset #8 Gonzaga in overtime. Gonzaga was undefeated in the conference this season. And last season. In fact, they had a streak of 26 consecutive regular season WCC wins. The basketball world thinks of Gonzaga as David, but in the WCC, Gonzaga is Goliath. They have been able to recruit big-time for 10 years, and they've got huge Nike backing that out-raises all of the athletic programs in the conference by a mile.

The Dons are a young team, and in what we hope is a breakthru game, youth was served. They were led by their senior and best player, Dior Lowhorn, but all of the kids pitched in, and left it all on the floor. And that's where they ended up when it was all over - on the floor. First the players stormed the court, followed immediately by the student section (which was packed for the first time this season), and then by hundreds of fans coming out of the stands. It was the biggest moment in decades for a program that used to be the Gonzaga of the WCAC (now WCC).

Look at the joy on Dior's face in the picture (#33). Huge smile, tongue hanging out. That's not joy, that's pure joy. You just know that moment will be in his heart for the rest of his life.

And one more subtle thing in that picture. All the way on the right, in front of the scorer's table, in the white shirt is Rex Walters. The players are delirous, the student section is emptying onto the court from the other side, the fans behind him are going wild. But there is Rex, walking over to shake hands (his right arm is extended) with Mark Few. Rex is a young guy, and would not have been faulted for celebrating like everyone else, but for him, it's first things first - it's time to be a gracious winner. That's who I want coaching young men.

It was special. Even the boss, who hates sports, had a great time, cheering like mad everytime the Dons hit another critical shot. None of my regulars could go, and so my extra 2 seats were empty for the event. Too bad. It was the place to be in San Francisco on Saturday night.

I hugged our embattled young A.D. who was just bubbling with the thrill of it all, and headed out with the boss into that inviting San Francisco night. I think I can confirm - I'll likely never go to another NBA game. Color me green and gold.