Closer to Auction Day

There will be a number of high priced closers available this season in the BABI draft. We assume that the following will be kept:

Capps - 5 (Cartel)
Corpas - 2 (Cartel)
Gregg – 5 (Hobo)
C. Cordero – 24 (Hobo, on a contract)
F. Cordero - 27 (Bats, probably)
Isringhausen – 24 (Pounders)
R. Soriano – 12 (Cappers)
Wilson – 11 (Falkuhns, nice FAAB pickup)

All of those team situations are settled for the moment, and the teams with the closers under $20 have a good leg up. In fact, we show the Cartel in the lead in value at the moment. If Lyon (see below) ends up closing for the DBacks, Geo's Cappers will be another team to be reckonned with. Having a cheap closer is the fantasy equivalent of winning the lottery.

The auction pool will likely include:

Saito (Bums have him at 28, we think he’ll go back)
Valverde
Wagner
Hoffman
Lidge
Gagne

All of these pitchers except Wagner have issues. And all of these guys are going to be costly.

Lidge just went under the knife, though for his knee, not his pitching arm. Who knows, though, what that will mean as the season wears on. Hoffman’s 2nd half went downhill, and he’s now 40. Valverde was great, but has been an injury risk throughout his short career. Saito was pristine, but he’s 38 and has Broxton breathing down his neck.

And of course there is Gagne. Milwaukee has a pretty nice team. I just can’t believe they threw $10 million at this guy. He is unlikely to be on the Pecklers this season, or any season. Of course, though we’re never wrong, we might be a little short on being right.

In Arizona, Lyon has been given first shot, and he will surely be kept at 2 by the Cappers. Pena and Qualls will be available. This one is a quagmire. If I were Geo, I’d buy the other 2 guys.

In Chicago we assume Kenny 9 will keep Howry at 8, and we’re going to keep Wood at 3 (we can hope, can't we?). Marmol will be available in auction. Maybe spring training will sort this out, but we might not know who the best bet is until the end of the season.

There are 6 BABI teams without a sure thing closer. It will be interesting to see if any of the teams chooses not to buy one. These guys are land mines, and they will be expensive. A few of them are bound to blow up. I like the idea of starting the auction by saying Eric Gagne, pitcher, Milwaukee, $1, just for fun.

Ralph Terry

Sorry, boys, I’ve been sick this week, and just don’t have the gumption to keep up with both the mountains of work and the mountains of phlegm in addition to the molehill that is this blog. But I did read something this week, that I’ll write about, and get back to it in a couple of days.

I’ve been reading historical sports books by great writers, and am currently working on some of the late, great David Halberstam’s baseball books. I’m in the middle of “October, 1964”, a recount of one of the greatest World Series ever between the Yankees and the Cardinals. It’s a wonderful period piece, and as a 12 year old Yankee fan at the time, it was a truly memorable series.

It was Mickey’s last series, during which he hit WS homer #18, a record that’s never going to be broken. Never. It was Gibson’s and Brock’s first, two guys who were incredible Series performers. It came at the end of the great Yankee run, and was in the early part of the National League’s dominance. Highly recommended.

In the middle is a great little story about Ralph Terry, who has a special connection to the Giants. Terry was the pitcher who won game 7 in 1962, getting McCovey to line out to Bobby Richardson with runners on second and third in the ninth to preserve a complete game 1-0 shutout. The story that Halberstam wrote that I love came a few years before his great triumph, when he was first signed out of a small town in Oklahoma by the same great agent, Tom Greenwade, who signed Mantle. Halberstam writes:

…He had even played on the same Baxter Springs team that Mickey Mantle had once played on, and in time Greenwade showed up at Terry’s home – a lean, older man driving a black Cadillac. Tom Greenwade, Terry thought, had a pretty good line when he dealt with country boys. “Ralph,” he said, “how would you like to play baseball in the biggest city in the world?” Terry liked that idea immediately, and he liked it even better when Greenwade told him that Terry’s timing could not be better. “Why, son, the Big Three (Raschi, Reynolds, and Lopat) are getting old. You’ll be coming up just in time.” And Terry loved the sound of Greenwade’s words, but with the confidence of the young, he believed them as well. He signed with the Yankees for a small bonus and was sent to Binghamton, New York, to play with one of the Yankee Class A teams.

Since Cooperstown was not very far away, he got permission from his manager to go over and watch the annual hall of Fame game there, where the Yankees were playing that day. Jim Turner, the Yankee pitching coach, recognized him and, because it was not a league game, told him it was all right to sit down at the end of the Yankee dugout.

Terry walked down to the end of the bench, where he found three very old men sitting together. Very full of himself, and sure that the big leagues were just around the corner, Terry introduced himself to the nearest of the men. “Hi, I’m Ralph Terry, and I’m pitching for the Binghamton Yankees,” he said, and the tone of his voice, he later decided, was more than a little cocky, implying that within a year or two he would be with the big-league club. The older man, one of the most courteous people Ralph Terry had ever met, said, “Well, Ralph, it certainly is a pleasure to meet you. Now, my name is Cy Young. And these fellas over here next to me are Zack Wheat and Ty Cobb.” Just as Terry decided that he was the youngest and biggest fool in professional baseball, Cy Young moved over a little closer, to sit next to him, and he talked pitching with him for the rest of the day.

That story probably took place in about 1954. Cy Young was born in 1867, so that would have made him 87. In fact, he died in 1955. What an incredible and lucky moment for any young man. As for Cobb, well let’s just leave it to Ray Liotta who as Shoeless Joe Jackson, said it best: “Ty Cobb wanted to play, but none of us could stand the son of a bitch when he was alive, so we told him to stick it!”

The Need for Crede

Grant over at McCovey Chronicles wrote something very funny yesterday. He linked to a San Jose Mercury article in which Aaron Rowand recommended the Giants trade for his former White Sox teammate, third baseman Joe Crede. Here is the quote that got to Grant:

The Giants might be able to get Crede without parting with a pitcher like Jonathan Sanchez. Outfielder Fred Lewis is out of options and generated interest with several teams this winter.

Although Crede will be a free agent after this season, the Giants consider him a potential long-term piece because they have no third-base prospects in the system. Crede might not be as athletic as the Giants would prefer - he has four stolen bases in 701 career games - but Rowand said his agility at third base ranks with that of Gold Glove fielders Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez.

Now lest we forget, Crede is the guy with the Pedro Feliz career statistics. And he's coming off surgery for a herniated disk. Ouch. He once hit 30 homers, but I believe Grant was not thrilled with giving up a lot for Crede. Grant imagines an interview between an unnamed reporter and Brian Sabean:

Sabean: We have three players with an outside shot of helping the next good Giants team. Let's send one to AAA, think about benching one in favor of Ray Durham and Rich Aurilia, and trade the last one for a one-year rental.

Reporter: Nice. What do you call this strategy?

Sabean: The Aristocrats!

You either get that or you don't. If you don't, I don't want you reading my blog any more.

Uh, actually my readers are scarce. Just go rent the movie The Aristocrats, and come back, any time.

Cheating Stats

Unless you are playing in a keeper league and you have an incredible keeper list, when the auction is over you are going to be short stats in some categories. Maybe you’ve got lots of power but not enough steals, or you’ve got plenty of saves but not enough starting pitching, or the starting pitching you’ve got isn’t very good. Something is going to be lacking.

Of course, you will have gotten more players you wanted that you expected. That is because you like some guys that others don’t so they go chepaer than you expect. And you’ll be happy, until your beloved Jim Bullinger goes out there and gets lit up like a nuclear reactor. But no matter how happy you are, your team is going to be missing some stuff that you will have to adjust for as you go along.

When Tom Gordon started to suck (I believe that is the technical phrase), we simply fell off the face of the earth in saves, and we never recovered. We even had made a point to purchase his likely replacement, Ryan Madson, but instead the Phillies came up with the brilliant and unexpected strategy of moving the really sucky Brett Myers to the bullpen. We had to punt saves, even though we had several guys who we hoped might garner a few. In 4x4, punting a category is virtually impossible.

Somewhere in the auction you’ve got to cheat. What I mean is that you have to pick areas that you simply don’t spend enough on, and use that extra money in some other area. We all do it, to some extent. That’s why a cheap closer is so valuable. The Bums had a $4 Valverde. They did purchase Saito for $28, giving them 12 saves points, but they could have used that $28 for more of the other things they might need, and then with the base of saves Valverde gave them, worked to pick up some more saves down the road. Since they ended up with plenty of everything, they are a bad example, but they sure had a great start on the saves category for almost no money.

Which gets me to the team I want to focus on, the one owned by the greatest BABI player ever, Mr. Leaguer. Year in, year out, he cheats on starting pitching. He usually has something like $11 for 7 players in the end game, and 6 of those players are pitching slots. The other is usually his backup catcher, though that was not true last season. And he seems to find some quality there, enough to fake it with his pitching categories at least for a while.

Mr. Leaguer went into the 2007 auction with 1 keeper at pitcher, Derek Lowe at $13. That’s it. No closers, no semi-closers, no #2. He bought the cheapest closer, the one everyone thought would be the first guy to lose his job, David Weathers. Weathers finished with 33 saves, an ERA for 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.21, way better than anyone had a right to hope. When he traded for Brad Lidge in mid-season, he was able get enough saves to finish with 6 points in the category.

He bought his other 8 pitchers (7 starters, 1 reliever at the start of the season) for $26. He had a total of $54 in his 10-man pitching staff. He had $226 to spend on hitting, though he only ended up spending $212, wasting $14 in an end game miscalculation. You can buy a lot of hitting for $226 (or even $212), particularly if you’ve got Hanley Ramirez kept at $11. Mr. Leaguer finished the season with 43 of a potential 48 points in hitting.

With his $54 pitching staff, he got 23.5 points. He finished in 3rd place with 66.5 points. Pretty impressive.

Of those 8 pitchers after the kept Lowe and his closer Weathers, only 1, Tom Gorzelanny, was actually any good. He got rid of all of the other 7 by July 24, via waiver or trade. When we traded Derek Lee and Cliff Floyd to him for Carlos Gomez and Tony Clark, he demanded that we give him Carlos Villenueva for a bum of his choice, John Suppan. We actually kept the $4 Suppan for a few weeks, but he was creating a bad odor in our ERA and WHIP and wasn’t actually getting any wins, so we waived him.

At the beginning of last season, do you remember how Matt Morris and Braden Looper started out hot as in “hot hot hot”? Mr. Leaguer was looking pretty brilliant at the end of April, but he ended up waiving Morris in June and Looper in July. He waived Livan in July as well, and found a sucker for Claudio Vargas. His only non-starter, Kevin Correia, was a call option on the Giants’ closer role for a buck. We had the same thought. Mr. Leaguer was right about Buttmondo, but Correia never got a chance. He traded him as a throw in to the Rips, who soon waived him. When he got into the Giants’ rotation in August, the Pecklers picked him up in a desperate attempt to chase wins. He pitched well, and now he’s a starter who would have been kept at a buck.

The point is for the most part, these guys all sucked, and yet he squeezed 23.5 points out of that staff. Pitching, unlike hitting, can be fixed, at least a little. But man, it takes some major league cajones to spend only $26 on 8 pitchers. Mr. Leaguer does it every year. And every year he’s got lots of hitting. He cheats his pitching, and works that side of his roster to make it good. And if he actually hits on a few of those guys, he’s in the race for first. Last year he didn’t do so well, so he only finished third.

That’s a shame.

He's got only 1 pitching keeper again for 2008, Gorzellany at $7. You watch, he'll do it again.

Balance, Daniel-San

Several years ago the Pickled Pecklers proposed that all the teams in BABI throw in all their cards and start over. There is so much inflation that has built up over time, we thought it would be fun to have a complete auction where everyone starts exactly even. The owners debated this mightily, and then we were mightily hooted down.

I specifically remember a conversation with Mr. Leaguer in which he explained what he liked best about our game. He said that the most challenging aspect of keeper-style fantasy sports is to balance the needs of the current season against the needs of future seasons.

Toward the end of the season those still in the race trade away some of their future for an improved chance at the present. In many years, dump trades have indeed ruined teams for the next year. The deals will, generally, improve the futures of the dumpers, though less than they would hope. This is the most obvious and dramatic moment of adjusting the balance between years.

Each spring we face those questions as well. Contract extensions require evaluations of the needs of this year against the needs of next season. Mr. Leaguer faces an extension decision on Hanley Ramirez, currently at 11-08. 16-09C? 21-10C? 26-11C? There is no right answer. Well, no, that’s not right either. There is a right answer, and we’ll be able to confirm it in October, 2011. In the meantime, Mr. Leaguer has to decide just how much in profits in 2008 he’s willing to sacrifice for future years.

The Pecklers have already decided to extend Eric Byrnes from 13-08 to 18-09C. Hitters are usually a lot easier than pitchers. But now we’re evaluating Adam Wainwright.

CARTWRIGHT!

Wainwright is currently at 4-08. We got a trade feeler this week for him, and the feeler said he assumed we would extend him. It’s a close call, and when you are talking about pitching, close calls should more often than not be decided against the extension. We asked this question on Shandler’s forum area, and got some interesting responses.

Two guys writing for HQ both responded that we should extend him to $9. They saw this move as buying an extra year, and we’d still have a “nice profit” as they each put it. Let’s assume he’s worth somewhere between $13 and $16. Big profit for one year, smaller profit for two years.

Then a fellow named Kevin wrote an intriguing entry leaning against extension. I quote:

I think that you should not. Ignoring any discount rate applied to future seasons (which I generally do not ignore), if we call Wainwright a $15 in your format (that's what the custom valuator says), if you have him for $4 this year that's $11 in profits. If you have him for $9 this year and next, that's $12 in profits. Virtually identical, and you still need to factor in:

- The discount rate, which like I said before, I generally don't ignore completely

- The fact that you lose the ability to cut Wainwright should he implode on you this year. I watched it happen to my arch-rival with Jose Lima in 2000. It was an unmitigated catastrophe for him not to be able to get Lima off of his roster. Wainwright had a nice year overall, but he also has the power to suck for extended stretches - his ERA though his first 10 games last year was 5.59. All I'm saying is, do not underestimate the value of the put option, especially in a close decision.

Fantastic advice, I think, and against what I would call the conventional wisdom. His reference to the put option is so easily ignored with pitchers. Hitters can’t hurt you too much, but pitchers can be painful. Geo believes you should virtually never extend a starting pitcher, possibly for just that reason. He got awfully lucky last season when he extended Myers. As bad as the Cappers season was last year, it could have been a lot worse.

I also suggested in the forum that we have a competitive keeper list. I hear you: “There the Pecklers go again, pumping up their keeper list.” We base this on having both Pence (The Glassman) and Loney at $5 contracts this year, both likely to be $15 in 2009, plus we have our pitching anchor, Webb, entering the last year of his contract. We have to have a good chance this year, and run with it, because we can see some major negatives for 2009 unless we draft brilliantly. BRILLIANT!

To this, Kevin added: You're telling me you have a competitive keeper roster. Then try to win this year! The decision is close, save that $5 and spend it on upgrading a $15 hitter to a $20 hitter!

We followed this once. We had a great keeper list, and we didn’t extend anyone. We used all that extra money in the draft. We had a great team that season, but we ended up with almost nobody we could trade. When our team got a lot of injuries near the end, we couldn’t fix things, and we finished second. Some of those guys we could have extended would have still been tradable. It was a mistake, and it was the closest we ever came to winning it all.

Of course, in order to be able to be the recipient of dump deals, you have to have some guys dumpers want. You can’t just have a bunch of players at the right prices. So in some respects having that extra $5 can be a negative, because it doesn’t force you to find a couple of those cheap guys who might have great trade value.

We’re not decided on Wainwright. He’s probably not very tradable at $9-09C. He’s probably a good keeper in 2009 at that price, though. And we want to find the right balance between 2008 and 2009. We always want to be competitive. Of course, we want to win it all, too. And when we do, we’re going out for real food after the season, food that the Bums will say “I’m glad the Pecklers won so we don’t have to eat that fru-fru crap.”

A Little Trick With Nick

Bonana Fanna Fo Fanna.

Can we all agree that despite all the protestations of “good chemistry” and “aggressiveness” and “speed” that the Giants’ offense is going to stink this season?

Here is the projected lineup according to Lefty, give or take one crappy player for another:

LF- Roberts/Davis
3B - Frandsen
RF - Winn
C - Molina
CF - Rowand
2B - Durham
1B - Ortmeier
SS - Vizquel
Pitcher

The rush to Momo’s after the bottom of the sixth may result in several deaths by trampelling this season.

I know all the Giant fans like various pieces, but allow me to insult you all by stating my feeling: the Giants have 2 guys in that lineup who are legitimate starting players (Rowand and Molina) and one (Winn) who is acceptable if the rest of the lineup is good. Is Molina the worst cleanup hitter in baseball? Is Winn the worst #3 hitter in baseball? As for the rest, well, everyone else is a throw away piece, or in the case of Frandsen and Ortmeier, a questionable project.

That’s my opinion, and I’m never wrong, although to paraphrase Henry Fonda in “In Harm’s Way”, I have been known to be a little short on bein’ right.

Based on reports, there is a deal to be made that can help. Washington’s best two hitters both play first base. Nick Johnson, out all of 2007 with a broken leg, appears healthy again. Meanwhile, the Nats signed his 2007 all-star replacement, 2007 NL Comeback Player of the Year Dmitri Young, to a $10 million two year extension this winter. They are scheduled to pay Johnson $5.5 million in 2008 and 2009. If Johnson is really healthy, one of them has to go.

So how about Johnson at first base for the Giants? Say for a couple of these young guys: Davis, Lewis, Ortmeier, Schierholtz, Sanchez, etc. etc. etc., come on, who cares?

First of all, the Giants can afford it, moneywise. Remember, I keep pounding on the fact that the Giants have money, real money, as a result of this huge (and hugely unreported) TV deal with Comcast in which they now own around 30% of Fox Sports Net. OK, they aren’t the Yankees, but this moves them up to around 5th or so in cash flow. The CEO of Comcast told the Giants: “I gave you all this money, and all you’ve bought so far is Aaron Rowand?”

Second, if he’s healthy, Nick Johnson can play. In the 500 at bats he had in 2006 before he was injured, he had 23 homers, 46 doubles, 77 RBIs, 100 runs and was hitting .290/.428/.520. And just for kicks, he had 10 steals. And he’s only 29 years old. Why not take the chance?

That might make the lineup, as I would order it:

LF- Roberts/Davis/et.al.
RF – Winn
CF – Rowand
1B - Johnson
C - Molina
2B - Durham
3B - Frandsen
SS - Vizquel
Pitcher

Better. We even have that L-R-L-R thing going in the middle of the lineup (ok, S-R-L-R, but close enough). Make a deal for Crede or possibly a legitimate third baseman, and maybe the crowd will stay to the eighth inning. And the crowd will buy an extra 5,000 beers at the ballpark instead of Momos, so the deal actually pays for itself.

Johnson is back. The Nats are dying to do a deal. It’s mostly a matter of money, which is the Giants’ only long suit.

Hey, their offense is still going to stink. But we can’t really go into the season without a single player who is sure to hit 15 homers. Plus Johnson is another legitimate piece, like Rowand and Molina. Come on, Sabes – make the call.

And now, back to Shirley Ellis and The Name Game. Let’s do Chuck!

Ultimate Pitching

I want to follow up about Johan Santana’s value this year and the value and consistency of super starting pitchers. There will be a lot of historical pitching lines in this piece, but I’d like to start with a challenge: Here are the pitching lines of a Hall of Famer in consecutive years. Can you name him? Answer at the end, but try this, and don’t peek!

Year 1 – 323 IP, 23 Wins, 1.75 ERA, 1.075 WHIP
Year 2 – 326 IP, 24 Wins, 2.01 ERA, 1.079 WHIP

Pretty fantastic, and incredibly consistent. I’ll even give you a hint: He was 21 and 22 years old in these years. That makes these lines more than pretty fantastic.

On to Santana. I’m going to admit something that I am not embarrassed about. Until this summer, I didn’t know who he was. Really. I really do follow baseball, but as I have said many times, I only follow NL baseball (baseball and NL baseball is redundant). AL? Feh. I was not conscious of a guy who won the Cy Young award 2 of the last 4 years until the Twinkies were negotiating with NL teams. So I had to look up his figures in Baseball Reference to understand what they were talking about. Here are the last 4 years:

2004 – 228 IP, 20-6, 2.61 ERA, 0.921 WHIP – Cy Young
2005 – 231 IP, 16-7, 2.87 ERA, 0.971 WHIP – 3rd in CY
2006 – 233 IP, 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 0.997 WHIP – Cy Young
2007 – 219 IP, 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 1.073 WHIP – 5th in CY

These are some pretty great stats, in a league where they have a DH instead of a pitcher hitting in the lineup. 2007 was a drop in every category, and yet, unless you really did pay $42, you’d be fairly happy with those numbers up to around $30. I don’t know if there were injuries that caused the drop off, but the Mets seemed comfortable giving him their Swiss bank account. I imagine they are expecting a return to the sub-3 ERA and sub-1 WHIP form.

(Note: WHIP for you non fantasy types is hits plus walks divided by innings. A WHIP of 1.00 is spectacular.)

I am particularly impressed with those sub-1 WHIP numbers. With enough innings, that can really hold a fantasy pitching staff together, even with a few Bullingers thrown in. In looking at some of the great pitchers of the past 20 years, even in some of their greatest seasons, you won’t see too many sub-1 WHIPs, even with low 2 ERAs.

That’s one of the things that made Maddux so special. Though he hasn’t been sub-1 for a while, even in 2007, at the age of 41, with an ERA of 4.14, Maddux had a 1.242 WHIP, which is pretty darn good. And that was his highest WHIP since 1990!

With Roger Clemens in the news, I took a look at some of his best seasons. I’m particularly interested in his consistency from year to year, because if you’re going to bid huge on someone after a great season, I’d like to get some idea on what you can count on. Clemens was pretty good at back to back seasons:

1986 – 254 IP, 24-4, 2.48 ERA, 0.969 WHIP
1987 – 281 IP, 20-9, 2.97 ERA, 1.175 WHIP

1990 – 228 IP, 21-6, 1.93 ERA, 1.082 WHIP
1991 – 271 IP, 18-10, 2.62 ERA, 1.047 WHIP

1997 – 264 IP, 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 1.030 WHIP
1998 – 234 IP, 20-6, 2.65 ERA, 1.095 WHIP

Roger won the Cy Young in five of those seasons. He was runner-up in 1990 to this line:

1990 – 238 IP, 27-6, 2.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

That’s Bob Welch, for those of you playing along in the home version of our game. Roger kicked his ass in every category except wins. I’d be inclined to take that sub 2 ERA from Roger on my fantasy team. But kudos to Welch, who I didn’t realize had a year like that in him. He pitched for the A’s that year, and followed his masterpiece season with a record of 12-13. Just in time for those fantasy players to bid $32.

I had in my head that Ron Guidry had one ridiculous season in him. I was right:

1978 – 273 IP, 25-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.946 WHIP

I particularly like the high IP, which makes those great ERA and WHIP numbers monsters. He followed it up with an 18-8 season with great numbers, finishing 3rd to Mike Flanagan and Tommy John in the Cy Young voting. All of his numbers were better except his won-loss record (Flanagan and John had over 20 wins). Guidry also had 2 saves that year.

Randy Johnson, the pre-eminent power pitcher since Nolan Ryan retired, had that streak of Cy Young seasons. Here are a couple of back to back seasons that are pretty spectacular:

1997 – 213 IP, 20-4, 2.28 ERA, 1.052 WHIP – 2nd to Clemens in CY
1998 – 244 IP, 19-11, 3.28 ERA, 1.183 WHIP – N/A, switched from AL to NL

2001 – 249 IP, 21-6, 2.49 ERA, 1.009 WHIP – won NL CY
2002 – 260 IP, 24-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.031 WHIP – won NL CY

Great numbers, though I guess the power pitchers must give up a few more walks than the finesse pitchers. That had to be a great Cy Young race in 1997 – uh, nope. Not even close. Clemens got 25 first place votes, Johnson got only 2. The difference wasn’t strikeouts – Clemens had 292, Johnson 291. Interestingly, somebody else might have even had a better year in 1997, the NL Cy Young winner, Pedro Martinez, who had a phenomenal run from 1997-2000:

1997 – 241 IP, 17-8, 1.90 ERA, 0.932 WHIP – won NL CY
1998 – 233 IP, 19-7, 2.89 ERA, 1.091 WHIP – 2nd to Clemens in AL CY
1999 – 213 IP, 23-4, 2.07 ERA, 0.923 WHIP – won AL CY
2000 – 217 IP, 18-6, 1.74 ERA, 0.737 WHIP – won AL CY

Man, look at those numbers in 2000! The league ERA in 2000 was 5.07. The next best WHIP (Mussina) in the AL that year was 1.178. As it turns out, Pedro is 3rd all-time with a 1.030 WHIP behind 2 guys no one can remember who pitched at the beginning of the 20th century. I’ve never looked at this list before. Maddux, who I assumed was way up there, is 46th. Marichal was 17th, Koufax 22nd, Seaver 30th. Schilling is 44th, Johnson is 76th, Smoltz is 82nd and Clemens is 86th. And it’s always good to know how ol’ Cy Young did. Pretty fantastic, given the ridiculous number of innings he pitched – he is 35th at 1.130.

Coming full circle, here is an important stat: Johan Santana is 16th. He’s second among active pitchers behind Pedro. He has the advantage of still being young. Maddux’s WHIP has increased over the last 10 years from its pristine level in the early part of his career. I’m sure he used to be way up on that list. This is one of the critical things you are buying when you say $42, or whatever on Santana. He’s a guy whose bad WHIP year is 1.073. And he’s only 28, just coming into his prime pitching years.

I think that’s enough pitching stats for today. So here is the answer to who that guy is at the top of this piece. It’s Babe Ruth. What a stud. And by the way, he’s 70th on that WHIP list and 14th in career ERA at 2.28. And just for kicks, he hit 714 homers. Those years were in 1916 and 1917, when he was still with the Red Sox. Remember this the next time you decide to go see No No Nanette.

Johan Santana, P, Mets - $42

The one monster player that went from the AL to the NL this off season is new Met, Johan Santana. So what is he worth in BABI?

Shandler projects the following numbers:

232 IP
20-6 W-L record
2.87 ERA
1.03 WHIP

Let’s compare that to our last two Cy Young winners:

2007 Jake Peavy

223 IP
19-6 W-L record
2.54 ERA
1.06 WHIP

2006 Brandon Webb

235 IP
16-8 W-L record
3.10 ERA
1.13 WHIP

I was ready to say that those are amazing numbers being projected for Santana, and they certainly are, but I realize that Peavy was equally good in 2007. Webb was somewhat worse in all categories, though taking the hitters’ paradise that he pitches in compared to the others, it was quite a fine year.

Shandler calls Santana’s numbers worth $42 in standard Rotisserie. This is before taking inflation into account. I can’t imagine that is right. Nobody would pay $42 for those numbers without taking into account inflation. First, there is the risk. Second, there is the risk. Third, there is no way that is worth $42. And of course, there is always the risk.

Here is what might be worth $42:

336 IP
31-6 W-L record
1.96 ERA
0.905 WHIP

Yeah, I’d pay $42 for that. Man, look at those innings! Now that’s a staff anchor!

If you are wondering, that is 1968 AL MVP Denny McLain’s incredible season. And if McLain was a free agent after that season, would you still pay $42 for 1969? Uh….I don’t think so. And for those of you wondering, here are his 1969 stats:

325 IP
24-9 W-L record
2.80 ERA
1.092 WHIP

That’s a pretty good year following a 336 inning all-time great season. Those ERA and WHIP figures are worth a LOT more because of the huge number of innings pitched. If I had paid $42 for his 1969 numbers, I guess I would have been pretty happy with the result.

By the way, in 1970 he pitched 91 innings, going 3-5. So if you had paid the $42 in 1969 and were happy, and then kept him for 1970, your team probably finished in last place.

Just for kicks, I’d like to look at a few other great seasons from that era. Here are 3 of them. Can you identify them? They all won Cy Young awards, and the first two were MVPs. The third was 5th in the MVP voting.

304 IP
22-9 W-L record
1.12 ERA
0.853 WHIP

311 IP
25-5 W-L record
1.88 ERA
0.875 WHIP

346 IP
27-10 W-L record
1.97 ERA
0.993 WHIP

The first has a stat that makes it pretty identifiable. Bob Gibson led the Cardinals to the World Series with that ridiculous ERA in 1968. The league ERA, though, was 2.90, and resulted in the pitching mound being lowered. Yaz won the AL batting crown hitting 301 that season, his triple crown year. He was the only player to hit over .300 in that league. Pete Rose won the NL crown batting .335 and beating out the brothers Alou (Matty and Felipe finished 2 and 3).

The second set of stats is Sandy Koufax at the height of his powers, pitching for the World Champion Dodgers in 1963. His WHIP in his last 5 years was: 1.036, 0.875, 0.928, 0.855 and 0.985. Whoa! That seems untouchable, but the great WHIP master of the current era, Greg Maddux, actually had a 5 year run from 1994-1998 that is comparable: 0.896, 0.811, 1.033, 0.946, 0.980. Here I am comparing Maddux to Koufax. With all the hubbub about Roger Clemens, we don’t completely appreciate Maddux’s greatness.

That last guy didn’t win the MVP. It’s a famous season, so maybe you’ve got it figured out. The reason he didn’t win the MVP is that his team, the 1972 Phillies only won 59 games. That is Steve Carlton’s savant season, in which he won almost half his team’s games. Look at those innings! How could guys pitch so many innings and have such outrageous numbers?

Would you pay $42 for those seasons? I say for sure, and the main reason is those innings. If you are wondering if you should pay $42 after those seasons for the next season, Gibson followed with 20 wins, Koufax went 19-5 in 1964, and Carlton LOST 20 games in 1973. I wonder how many Hall of Fame pitchers lost 20 games in a season, particularly after 1930. It’s got to be a short list.

So what is Santana worth? No way we’re going to pay $42. But let’s not forget – we’ve got 25%+ inflation on top of everything. So if he’s worth $35,that is really $44. And that is the price The Elder Barry claims he’s going to bid in a preempt bid. Will anyone say $45?

Maybe, if he guarantees 300 innings this season.

The Todd Linden Rule

In today’s paper we saw the following item involving a Pickled Peckler:

Padres agreed to terms with first baseman Tony Clark on a one-year, $900,000 contract. Not exactly the two-year, $3 million deal the Diamondbacks reportedly offered him. Clark will primarily provide a power threat off the bench, but also could spell Adrian Gonzalez at first from time to time. He's a switch hitter, but is really only effective against righties, and would have been better off pouncing on Arizona's offer.

Clark turned down the DBacks’ offer of something like $3 million over 2 years. What a freakin’ idiot.

This not only hurt him, it hurt us too. We have Clark on our potential keeper list, with a $2 contract through 2009. Here is his 2007 stats for Arizona:

17 Homers, 51 RBIs, .249 BA. He hit .286 after the All Star break. Ordinarily, 17 homers with a batting average north of the Mendoza line represents an instant keeper at 2 bucks. We figured he was almost a sure keeper as long as he signed in the NL. However, we’ve got a couple of problems:

First, we have Loney inked in to the 1B spot. We also have Nick Johnson at $10 on our roster. Before you start laughing, he’s ready to go. Here is a late January report:

Nick Johnson finally has no remaining physical limitations after a series of surgeries on his broken right leg, and he'll battle Dmitri Young for the first base job this spring. "Nick, even when Soriano was here, was the most productive player we had because of his on-base percentage," manager Manny Acta said. "That prolongs innings, prolongs games. It wins games. It's huge. He has so much value for us."

Johnson had 23 homers and 10 steals while hitting .290 in 2006. We have all of spring training to see how he looks, but we’re hoping he’ll be keepable. So that makes 2 first basemen for us. Clark would be three, meaning we’d have to slot him at non-corner utility.

As for Clark, he can still mash. Don’t forget, he hit 30 homers in 2005. But he’s moving to a team with an all-star at first (Adrian Gonzalez), and to a park where some of those homers are going to disappear. You’ve got to temper his projected stats. Let’s assume 10 homers, 40 RBIs and .245 BA. Is that worth $2 as a keeper?

Not on the Bums or the Falkuhns. Yes on Any 9 and the Bats, two teams short on keepers. So how about us?

We have 7 sure keepers plus Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson. Unless we make a deal, we’re probably not going to hit 10 keepers, so there is a roster spot for Clark. Ten homers for a first baseman with upside for $2?

Close call. This is where our Todd Linden rule comes into play. Last year we had 9 keepers we liked. We also had Linden at $5. Linden was scheduled to be the Giants 4th outfielder, behind Bonds, Winn and Roberts. He tore up Scottsdale in spring training. Larry B. came by the office in early March and I asked him flat out: How many at bats will Linden get? He said 350. That was the number I was guessing. So we made Linden our 10th keeper. And here are Linden’s 2007 stats:

184 at bats, 1 homer, 11 RBIs, 4 steals, .245 BA.

The Todd Linden rule, learned the hard way: Don’t stretch to keep marginal keepers. We’re applying that rule to Kevin Correia, who we have at $6, and who may well be worth more than that in 2008.

So we’re likely not to keep Clark. Actually, the Doc may disagree – we haven’t discussed it. And we may change our mind. But we see a lot of teams likely to keep marginal guys at seeming good prices. Good luck with that. BTW, Clark is almost certainly available. Remember – we’re email guys.

First Peek

I finally got Rotolab installed this week. The Doc set up the projected rosters, and I refined it. Based on Baseball HQ’s preliminary projections and our guess at the keeper and contract decisions, BABI breaks into 4 three team tiers.

Top Tier – Bums, Cartel and Old Rips

The Champs have a great, deep keeper list, but the key profits are in two farm players entering their second year at $5: Ryan Braun and Chris (AZ) Young. Baseball HQ projects $59 in profits on these two guys. They surely looked great last year, and they look like sure fantasy studs, but they are still awfully young. BTW, Braun is projected at 37/97/17/.302, and Young at 28/68/22/.258. These figures both anticipate declines from their performance in 2007, so the profits may prove to be even bigger if they can match or exceed last season’s stats.

A lot of the Cartel profits are wrapped up in their 2 closers, Capps and Corpas. I’m not convinced some of the other profits are such sure things. Both Broxton and Ayala are projected at $9 with several saves (8 for Broxton) and sub 3.00 ERAs. We’ll see, but it will depend on how well Mr. Cartel purchases hitting stats. We have him keeping just 1 non-rookie, the marginally priced Orlando Hudson. Gregg also has the most money to spend, which is not necessarily a good thing.

Boof has a lot of potential keepers, and it will be interesting to see if he can package 2 or 3 for 1 in the pre-season. His big profits are in Victorino (32 steals projected) and Matt Diaz (projecting 488 at bats). Some of the profits will disappear if he extends Freddie Sanchez or Stephen Drew – we have assumed that he will not do so.

Second Tier – Cappers, Pecklers and Falkuhns

We suspect that the Pounders are wondering why they aren’t listed here, but frankly, despite some great names, they barely made the third tier.

Geo has big profits in $5 farm player Troy Tulowitzki and $12 Raffy Soriano. Baseball HQ only gives Lyon 9 saves compared to 22 for Pena, so there may be more profits for the Cappers if they follow through on their announcement this week that Lyon will start as the closer for Arizona. On the other hand, they show Brett Myers at $13, including 11 wins and 4 saves and a 3.88 ERA. We’ll see about that.

The Pecklers feature their 2 $5 farm players, Hunter Pence and James Loney, plus an extended $18 Eric Byrnes (projected at 19 homers and 34 steals, down from 21 and 50). The big upside player is Kerry Wood, being kept at $3, but projected to be worth only $1 with 2 saves. Baseball HQ shows Marmol getting 23 saves for the Cubs.

The Falkuhns have lots and lots of keepers, but not enough spectacular keepers. Plus they have to deal with contract extensions for Fielder (we guessed $20) Phillips ($16), and Kelly Johnson (8). They also project 26 saves for Brian Wilson. That would be a save in every game won by the Giants this season. Speaking of which, Kenny 9 - odds on 100 Giant losses in 2008, please?

Third Tier – Hobos, Busch Leaguers and Pounders

It’s all about Matt Holliday among Hobo hitters. In fact, he’s the only hitter we have them keeping at this point. Noel always has several pitchers to keep, including 2 closers, Cordero and Gregg. We assume they will buy out Carpenter’s contract. Virtually all of their keeper profits are in Holliday and Gregg.

The Leaguers have a short keeper list, but on it is Hanley Ramirez, who is projected at $41 (26 HR, 43 steals, both stats less than 2007). We have him only keeping 1 pitcher, Gorzellany, which fits his tradition of having $10 left for 7 pitchers in the end game. It will be interesting to see how Mr. Leaguer approaches this season.

OK, the Pounders have Wright and Utley. Baseball HQ only has Chris (SD) Young worth $11 (11 wins) which seems awfully low. We have him keeping Pedro, too, in his new hitter’s paradise, which would result in a $4 loss according to Shandler. And for Giants fans who are interested, they project Rowand at 16/69/9/.288. That RBI total shows you what they think of the Giants’ offense.

The Dregs – Any 9, Lickers, Bats

None of these teams is projected to have a great keeper. The best is the Lickers’ Yovani Gallardo, a $15 value kept at $5. He’s been getting hyped in the pre-season press, and based solely on that is our candidate for hyped player of the year. All of these teams have a lot of marginal keepers. I’d be inclined to remember that sometimes less is more.

Our Big Brother

A really great friend of the Pickled Pecklers, Jeff Tiret, passed away yesterday. He was one of our tennis buddies, and among them, he was truly special. Many of the widespread Tiret family are tennis-playing members of the O Club, and the tennis fortunes of the Tiret and Peckler families became intertwined in a way that we really just became one big tennis-playing extended family.

I remember well the first time I played Jeff. We faced each other around 10 or 12 years ago in the first round of the club singles championships. I was just learning the game, and did not have any expectations of winning a championship, but I figured I could hold my own in singles against an out of shape old codger. He creamed me. Creamed me. He bageled me in the first set, and I was lucky to steal 4 games in the second. 6-0 in the first doesn’t come close to describing how badly he beat me. I felt like I was playing against Sampras. Back in the day before his shoulder surgery, Jeff had a huge serve, and he was just crushing it that day.

A few years ago I got to even the score. We played again in the first round of the club singles. I was playing really well that summer, and he was going though one of those out of shape periods. I mashed him up really good (I won’t mention that the score was 2 and 3). But here is where Jeff was really special. The Pecklers are famous for our frustrations when things aren’t going well on the court. Jeff, on the other hand, always had great fun every minute he played, whether he was playing well or not. That looseness often allowed him to play big matches at a level better than his ability.

His nephew Ryan and I faced him and our buddy Armon Cooper in the last round of the Calcutta a few years ago. Winner take all, a big pot on the line. Ryan and I were huge favorites, and we won the first set 6-2. But Jeff and Armon hung in there to win a 2nd set tie breaker, and then they just demolished us in the third set super tiebreaker. Frankly, we choked, and it cost our team a lot of money. I’m sure Jeff picked up those Calcutta winnings on his tax return that year.

I did get my revenge, in the all-time greatest Tiret-Peckler match. This was about 3 years ago, and Jeff’s son Eric and I were Calcutta teammates while Jeff and the Doc were teammates against us. Our teams reached the final round tied for last place. Since the overall match meant nothing, instead of strategically organizing our team orders, we organized a match of Eric and me against Jeff and the Doc. Eric’s game had really taken a jump that summer, so he and I were big favorites despite the fact that I was playing my 5th match in 2 days, which had caused my tennis elbow to flare up horribly. Hey baby, suck it up – this is Tirets and Pecklers! Eric and I won a tie breaker in the first set, and then lost the second 6-4, setting up a 3rd set super-tie breaker to decide it. It was life and death, but Eric and I pulled it out. Throughout the match, Jeff was spectacular despite his troublesome shoulder. Without a doubt, it was the most fun we had all weekend.

What I’ll remember most, though, was the last time we played, back in 2006, before he was diagnosed with leukemia. It was just one of Dale’s Friday stinko matches. In the first set Jeff was making a lot of mistakes, but he just kept laughing and having a great time, keeping everyone smiling. No matter how he played, he always enjoyed himself, just happy to be there. And as a result, his game came around, and started hitting winners. Bad shot, good shot, it was all the same. Jeff just kept smiling and laughing, and made us happy to be with him.

That’s the way he was. All of his friends have great stories, some of which have a lot of alcohol involved. That boy knew how to enjoy life, and he knew even better how to share that joy. The Tirets and the Pecklers will continue their intra-family tennis squabble, I guarantee. After all, Jeff can always use a good laugh. He sure gave us plenty of them.

SF Giants In Only Six Words

Grant over at the McCovey Chronicles wrote a piece about describing the SF Giants in just 6 words. He wrote a few himself, and then turned it over to his readers. You’ve got to read the comments. They are hilarious.

My favorite of Grant's is: Meal ticket indicted. Team even worse.

Here are a few of the better ones from the peanut gallery:

Nvsfg wrote about Aaron Rowand:
Size twenty heart. Size ten talent.

BondOrBust wrote about Barry Zito:
Couldn’t hit 86 on the freeway.

UnleashtheGore wrote about Dusty Baker:
Let’s kill young pitchers with potential.

Howtheyscored made a prediction and a couple of comments:
Smart Over/Under on wins: 70.

Remember splash hits? Yeah, me too.

Much like losing at Penis Fencing.

Yup. Some of these are painful.

Rocknjock remembered an old friend:
Felix Rodriguez: another fastball, another whiplash.

Peteisathug summed up his outlook:
Zito, Durham, Roberts, Aurilia… Why me?

There are a number of Matt Cain comments summarized best by Scottsdale:
Matt Cain, no hitter, tie game.

Stuttering John Tomargo wrote a few. My favorite was:
Bengie Molina, number 5 hitter. Ow.

That’s enough for now. Check out the rest. Damned funny stuff.

Oh, yeah, I posted a few. I started with a pair regarding Buttmondo’s last Giants outing:

Walk, balk, sac, balk. Giants lose.

Walk, balk, sac, balk. You’re Fired!!

Remember Merkin Valdez? He of the 27 ERA:
Pujols smash. Welcome to the majors.

And I wrote a couple about our old pal, AJ Pierzynski:
Right knee to Conte’s nut sack.

And AJ’s response to his Giant fan detractors:
Check out my World Series ring.

Takin' A Dump

George Carlin doesn't understand that phrase. Why would anyone want to Take a Dump? He thinks it makes more sense to Leave a Dump.

We went ahead and bought a 3 month subscription to Shandler’s Baseball HQ. No one on their staff has any sense of humor. It’s like eating Grape Nuts dry. But we did it because we have to own something to allow me to take a break from tax returns periodically during the long weeks to come. Actually we did it because factoring in the purchase of Rotolab, it only cost another $29 net.

There just isn’t all that much baseball to write about during these weeks before P&C descend on Florida and Arizona. This has been a little of a blog problem for me as well, but I don’t make a living at this, not yet anyway, though I am still hoping a crisp Jackson will show up from Larry Dot Net to purchase an ad for his excess keepers.

Today BBHQ published a short piece on fantasy rules to limit dump trades. I believe teams should have the freedom to fix their team for the following season, and that dump trades are part of the game. I am concerned that some dumpers create a huge effect on the current race that they are no longer a part of, and don’t market their players widely enough. We really ought to do something.

Here is what BBHQ says, along with my take for BABI:

Salary Cap - Perhaps the most common in-season solution is to designate an in-season salary cap and/or floor. For leagues with a standard $260 auction budget, the in-season cap is usually $360-$400. This rule has the benefit of not micro-managing individual trades but, overall, should allow a league to prevent a team from amassing too many high priced players. The drawback, however, is that not all great players are high priced. In theory, a team could have several low priced players at the end of a contract and trading them for low priced keepers could easily allow for the type of unbalanced trade that the rule was put in place to prevent in the first place.

Mr. Leaguer has been pushing this on us for a few years. In theory, I am for it, but I fear its complications. I also know it will never pass. I don’t know how to factor in players picked up on waivers or purchased in FAAB, particularly some BUM with a huge FAAB budget might purchase for a Benji. I suspect this is the only real solution.

Trade Limitations - Other in-season rules include limiting the number of players which could be included in any individual trade, setting time constraints when trades can or cannot be transacted, limiting which teams others can trade with based on position in the standings or any combination of these. While these rules could have an impact on dump trading (though, the level of impact is probably not as great as desired), they also have the adverse effect of potentially limiting "legitimate" trades. For that matter, the in-season salary cap can also have this effect and, for that reason, some leagues look for other alternatives.

I would like to propose two limitations on trades. First, I would limit trades between 2 teams to 7 total players. The odd number allows a trade of someone on a reserve list. I just think that is enough players for someone to get a good keeper and the other team to get some quality. Second, I would allow only 1 trade between any two teams during the baseball season. Make your deal, make it a good one with a limit of 7 total players, and then you are done for this year.

Trade Vetoes - The ultimate trade limitation is the veto. It can be very controversial and often leads to harder feelings than the dump trades themselves. If you are going to look at an option like this, we suggest that the process must involve the support of an overwhelming majority of the owners not involved in the trade.

The Pecklers have always been against this unless it is formally codified and teams must go on record. I believe Mr. Leaguer’s LA league has trade vetoes, and most of the teams will vote based on their own self-interest rather than for fairness. My sense is those guys aren’t friends. For the most part, we are. Many of us socialize outside of BABI (though BABI is never outside of our socializing). Many of my best friends are in BABI, and I wouldn’t like any of them to end up on my permanent Shit List. And Kenny 9 is already going through a divorce. We wouldn’t want him to simultaneously have to get divorced and thrown out on the street by his new wife because he votes against our raping another team.

Punish Losers - If you create a reason not to lose, teams will make a greater effort not to do so. Rules which punish teams that finish at or near the bottom of the standings include decreasing the amount of keepers or teams' salary caps the following season. Still, if teams are not capable of competing through the draft or roster management, inhibiting their ability to improve the following season would seem to perpetuate losing.

Mr. Leaguer has proposed some of this as well. I think the stakes are high enough.

Make Keepers Less Desirable - If dumping teams are not getting much in trade value, they are less likely to give up too much to acquire it. Leagues could implement a rule which increases the salary and/or contract status of acquired players. This would inhibit the 4 for 1 type trades if the '1' becomes less attractive.

Larry Dot Net wants more keepers. That’s because he has a lot of them. We vote no. If anything, we’d vote for fewer keepers. An alternative I would propose is to eliminate extended contracts. Three years is plenty. I’d make everyone an “X” player.

On the other hand, if we have no rules changes, that would be fine by me.

Ooops!

Well, I guess I got that wrong. This is why I don't bet on football.

Good game. Here's to the '72 Dolphins. Again.

Finally. It's baseball season. Play Ball!!!

Game Day

The game just started and I want to put my predictions in writing:

I'll take the Patriots and give 12.

I'll take the OVER 54.

Tomorrow we can start talking baseball seriously.

Good Enough For Me

Just in time. Thank God I didn't already vote absentee.



And if that wasn't enough,

Watching, But Not Interested

It’s the Friday before the Super Bowl, and I’m just not interested. I’m not at my wife’s level of “not interested”, at least not yet. She loves the Super Bowl because there are no shopping lines anywhere in the US.

I am going to watch it, because I always watch it. I’m old enough to confirm that I’ve watched every one, all XLI of them. I’ve seen them at Super Bowl parties, including a PEFA-Super Bowl XXIII party at my home when we saw Montana hit Taylor in the end zone with 34 seconds left to win it for our Niners. I’ve seen them in bars from coast (SB VIII in Killington VT, SB XVI at The Portals in SF from which I have no idea how I got home alive). I’ve seen them with my brothers, my friends, and alone with my best friend, Max.

I’ve never been to one, and that’s ok. The closest I came was SB XVI at Stanford, the super-hyped game between the high-flying Marino-led Dolphins and the 17-1 Montana-led Niners. My buddy Sam Barron said he was going and I should go with him. He guaranteed we’d get a ticket for $100. Face was $60, and tickets were going for $500 and up. I told him he was nuts, so I headed over to West Portal to get blitzed. (On the way home in that car, I pulled my Fiat X-1/9 over to the curb, opened the door, stuck my head out and barfed, then headed home.) Sam told me later that he bought a ticket in the end zone for $100 from a guy who had 2. The guy who sat in my seat said he paid face.

Sure, I’m going to watch it Sunday. I’ve got a streak going – XLI in a row. I’m not going to break it. But even with the Pats going for the perfect season, I’m just not interested. I’m interested in baseball getting started, and I'm really interested in fantasy baseball getting started. In a couple of weeks all this football stuff will finally be off the sports pages, and we’ll start to see the awakening of what is getting my blood up. What’s funny is that for most of those Super Bowls, I craved football, not baseball. I’m not sure what changed, though it may be that I don’t like actually going to football games any more, but I love going to baseball games. And despite having invented online fantasy football, Roto Baseball is just so much more fun. I invented that, too, by the way.

So this weekend I’m going to ramp up my baseball jones and download Rotolab, fantasy baseball software that I bought last season for the first time that has really added to my enjoyment of the game. I used to do it all on a massive spreadsheet, but Rotolab is so much easier. I have some suggestions which I’ll pass on to Merv, my Rotolab guru, but it’s pretty good just as it is. Money very well spent. In fact, while the Super Bowl is on, I’ll be tossing the ball to Max and simultaneously playing around with Merv’s software. Now that’s the way to watch a football game.

Speaking of football, let me leave you with this link to a hilarious video on You Tube. It’s got Hitler in it, so you know it’s in bad taste. But so is the annual Dolphin toast after the last team loses a game each year. Hitler is history, and maybe, finally, so will be that annual toast.