Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Closer to Auction Day

There will be a number of high priced closers available this season in the BABI draft. We assume that the following will be kept:

Capps - 5 (Cartel)
Corpas - 2 (Cartel)
Gregg – 5 (Hobo)
C. Cordero – 24 (Hobo, on a contract)
F. Cordero - 27 (Bats, probably)
Isringhausen – 24 (Pounders)
R. Soriano – 12 (Cappers)
Wilson – 11 (Falkuhns, nice FAAB pickup)

All of those team situations are settled for the moment, and the teams with the closers under $20 have a good leg up. In fact, we show the Cartel in the lead in value at the moment. If Lyon (see below) ends up closing for the DBacks, Geo's Cappers will be another team to be reckonned with. Having a cheap closer is the fantasy equivalent of winning the lottery.

The auction pool will likely include:

Saito (Bums have him at 28, we think he’ll go back)
Valverde
Wagner
Hoffman
Lidge
Gagne

All of these pitchers except Wagner have issues. And all of these guys are going to be costly.

Lidge just went under the knife, though for his knee, not his pitching arm. Who knows, though, what that will mean as the season wears on. Hoffman’s 2nd half went downhill, and he’s now 40. Valverde was great, but has been an injury risk throughout his short career. Saito was pristine, but he’s 38 and has Broxton breathing down his neck.

And of course there is Gagne. Milwaukee has a pretty nice team. I just can’t believe they threw $10 million at this guy. He is unlikely to be on the Pecklers this season, or any season. Of course, though we’re never wrong, we might be a little short on being right.

In Arizona, Lyon has been given first shot, and he will surely be kept at 2 by the Cappers. Pena and Qualls will be available. This one is a quagmire. If I were Geo, I’d buy the other 2 guys.

In Chicago we assume Kenny 9 will keep Howry at 8, and we’re going to keep Wood at 3 (we can hope, can't we?). Marmol will be available in auction. Maybe spring training will sort this out, but we might not know who the best bet is until the end of the season.

There are 6 BABI teams without a sure thing closer. It will be interesting to see if any of the teams chooses not to buy one. These guys are land mines, and they will be expensive. A few of them are bound to blow up. I like the idea of starting the auction by saying Eric Gagne, pitcher, Milwaukee, $1, just for fun.

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