The Todd Linden Rule

In today’s paper we saw the following item involving a Pickled Peckler:

Padres agreed to terms with first baseman Tony Clark on a one-year, $900,000 contract. Not exactly the two-year, $3 million deal the Diamondbacks reportedly offered him. Clark will primarily provide a power threat off the bench, but also could spell Adrian Gonzalez at first from time to time. He's a switch hitter, but is really only effective against righties, and would have been better off pouncing on Arizona's offer.

Clark turned down the DBacks’ offer of something like $3 million over 2 years. What a freakin’ idiot.

This not only hurt him, it hurt us too. We have Clark on our potential keeper list, with a $2 contract through 2009. Here is his 2007 stats for Arizona:

17 Homers, 51 RBIs, .249 BA. He hit .286 after the All Star break. Ordinarily, 17 homers with a batting average north of the Mendoza line represents an instant keeper at 2 bucks. We figured he was almost a sure keeper as long as he signed in the NL. However, we’ve got a couple of problems:

First, we have Loney inked in to the 1B spot. We also have Nick Johnson at $10 on our roster. Before you start laughing, he’s ready to go. Here is a late January report:

Nick Johnson finally has no remaining physical limitations after a series of surgeries on his broken right leg, and he'll battle Dmitri Young for the first base job this spring. "Nick, even when Soriano was here, was the most productive player we had because of his on-base percentage," manager Manny Acta said. "That prolongs innings, prolongs games. It wins games. It's huge. He has so much value for us."

Johnson had 23 homers and 10 steals while hitting .290 in 2006. We have all of spring training to see how he looks, but we’re hoping he’ll be keepable. So that makes 2 first basemen for us. Clark would be three, meaning we’d have to slot him at non-corner utility.

As for Clark, he can still mash. Don’t forget, he hit 30 homers in 2005. But he’s moving to a team with an all-star at first (Adrian Gonzalez), and to a park where some of those homers are going to disappear. You’ve got to temper his projected stats. Let’s assume 10 homers, 40 RBIs and .245 BA. Is that worth $2 as a keeper?

Not on the Bums or the Falkuhns. Yes on Any 9 and the Bats, two teams short on keepers. So how about us?

We have 7 sure keepers plus Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson. Unless we make a deal, we’re probably not going to hit 10 keepers, so there is a roster spot for Clark. Ten homers for a first baseman with upside for $2?

Close call. This is where our Todd Linden rule comes into play. Last year we had 9 keepers we liked. We also had Linden at $5. Linden was scheduled to be the Giants 4th outfielder, behind Bonds, Winn and Roberts. He tore up Scottsdale in spring training. Larry B. came by the office in early March and I asked him flat out: How many at bats will Linden get? He said 350. That was the number I was guessing. So we made Linden our 10th keeper. And here are Linden’s 2007 stats:

184 at bats, 1 homer, 11 RBIs, 4 steals, .245 BA.

The Todd Linden rule, learned the hard way: Don’t stretch to keep marginal keepers. We’re applying that rule to Kevin Correia, who we have at $6, and who may well be worth more than that in 2008.

So we’re likely not to keep Clark. Actually, the Doc may disagree – we haven’t discussed it. And we may change our mind. But we see a lot of teams likely to keep marginal guys at seeming good prices. Good luck with that. BTW, Clark is almost certainly available. Remember – we’re email guys.