Johan Santana, P, Mets - $42

The one monster player that went from the AL to the NL this off season is new Met, Johan Santana. So what is he worth in BABI?

Shandler projects the following numbers:

232 IP
20-6 W-L record
2.87 ERA
1.03 WHIP

Let’s compare that to our last two Cy Young winners:

2007 Jake Peavy

223 IP
19-6 W-L record
2.54 ERA
1.06 WHIP

2006 Brandon Webb

235 IP
16-8 W-L record
3.10 ERA
1.13 WHIP

I was ready to say that those are amazing numbers being projected for Santana, and they certainly are, but I realize that Peavy was equally good in 2007. Webb was somewhat worse in all categories, though taking the hitters’ paradise that he pitches in compared to the others, it was quite a fine year.

Shandler calls Santana’s numbers worth $42 in standard Rotisserie. This is before taking inflation into account. I can’t imagine that is right. Nobody would pay $42 for those numbers without taking into account inflation. First, there is the risk. Second, there is the risk. Third, there is no way that is worth $42. And of course, there is always the risk.

Here is what might be worth $42:

336 IP
31-6 W-L record
1.96 ERA
0.905 WHIP

Yeah, I’d pay $42 for that. Man, look at those innings! Now that’s a staff anchor!

If you are wondering, that is 1968 AL MVP Denny McLain’s incredible season. And if McLain was a free agent after that season, would you still pay $42 for 1969? Uh….I don’t think so. And for those of you wondering, here are his 1969 stats:

325 IP
24-9 W-L record
2.80 ERA
1.092 WHIP

That’s a pretty good year following a 336 inning all-time great season. Those ERA and WHIP figures are worth a LOT more because of the huge number of innings pitched. If I had paid $42 for his 1969 numbers, I guess I would have been pretty happy with the result.

By the way, in 1970 he pitched 91 innings, going 3-5. So if you had paid the $42 in 1969 and were happy, and then kept him for 1970, your team probably finished in last place.

Just for kicks, I’d like to look at a few other great seasons from that era. Here are 3 of them. Can you identify them? They all won Cy Young awards, and the first two were MVPs. The third was 5th in the MVP voting.

304 IP
22-9 W-L record
1.12 ERA
0.853 WHIP

311 IP
25-5 W-L record
1.88 ERA
0.875 WHIP

346 IP
27-10 W-L record
1.97 ERA
0.993 WHIP

The first has a stat that makes it pretty identifiable. Bob Gibson led the Cardinals to the World Series with that ridiculous ERA in 1968. The league ERA, though, was 2.90, and resulted in the pitching mound being lowered. Yaz won the AL batting crown hitting 301 that season, his triple crown year. He was the only player to hit over .300 in that league. Pete Rose won the NL crown batting .335 and beating out the brothers Alou (Matty and Felipe finished 2 and 3).

The second set of stats is Sandy Koufax at the height of his powers, pitching for the World Champion Dodgers in 1963. His WHIP in his last 5 years was: 1.036, 0.875, 0.928, 0.855 and 0.985. Whoa! That seems untouchable, but the great WHIP master of the current era, Greg Maddux, actually had a 5 year run from 1994-1998 that is comparable: 0.896, 0.811, 1.033, 0.946, 0.980. Here I am comparing Maddux to Koufax. With all the hubbub about Roger Clemens, we don’t completely appreciate Maddux’s greatness.

That last guy didn’t win the MVP. It’s a famous season, so maybe you’ve got it figured out. The reason he didn’t win the MVP is that his team, the 1972 Phillies only won 59 games. That is Steve Carlton’s savant season, in which he won almost half his team’s games. Look at those innings! How could guys pitch so many innings and have such outrageous numbers?

Would you pay $42 for those seasons? I say for sure, and the main reason is those innings. If you are wondering if you should pay $42 after those seasons for the next season, Gibson followed with 20 wins, Koufax went 19-5 in 1964, and Carlton LOST 20 games in 1973. I wonder how many Hall of Fame pitchers lost 20 games in a season, particularly after 1930. It’s got to be a short list.

So what is Santana worth? No way we’re going to pay $42. But let’s not forget – we’ve got 25%+ inflation on top of everything. So if he’s worth $35,that is really $44. And that is the price The Elder Barry claims he’s going to bid in a preempt bid. Will anyone say $45?

Maybe, if he guarantees 300 innings this season.