First Peek

I finally got Rotolab installed this week. The Doc set up the projected rosters, and I refined it. Based on Baseball HQ’s preliminary projections and our guess at the keeper and contract decisions, BABI breaks into 4 three team tiers.

Top Tier – Bums, Cartel and Old Rips

The Champs have a great, deep keeper list, but the key profits are in two farm players entering their second year at $5: Ryan Braun and Chris (AZ) Young. Baseball HQ projects $59 in profits on these two guys. They surely looked great last year, and they look like sure fantasy studs, but they are still awfully young. BTW, Braun is projected at 37/97/17/.302, and Young at 28/68/22/.258. These figures both anticipate declines from their performance in 2007, so the profits may prove to be even bigger if they can match or exceed last season’s stats.

A lot of the Cartel profits are wrapped up in their 2 closers, Capps and Corpas. I’m not convinced some of the other profits are such sure things. Both Broxton and Ayala are projected at $9 with several saves (8 for Broxton) and sub 3.00 ERAs. We’ll see, but it will depend on how well Mr. Cartel purchases hitting stats. We have him keeping just 1 non-rookie, the marginally priced Orlando Hudson. Gregg also has the most money to spend, which is not necessarily a good thing.

Boof has a lot of potential keepers, and it will be interesting to see if he can package 2 or 3 for 1 in the pre-season. His big profits are in Victorino (32 steals projected) and Matt Diaz (projecting 488 at bats). Some of the profits will disappear if he extends Freddie Sanchez or Stephen Drew – we have assumed that he will not do so.

Second Tier – Cappers, Pecklers and Falkuhns

We suspect that the Pounders are wondering why they aren’t listed here, but frankly, despite some great names, they barely made the third tier.

Geo has big profits in $5 farm player Troy Tulowitzki and $12 Raffy Soriano. Baseball HQ only gives Lyon 9 saves compared to 22 for Pena, so there may be more profits for the Cappers if they follow through on their announcement this week that Lyon will start as the closer for Arizona. On the other hand, they show Brett Myers at $13, including 11 wins and 4 saves and a 3.88 ERA. We’ll see about that.

The Pecklers feature their 2 $5 farm players, Hunter Pence and James Loney, plus an extended $18 Eric Byrnes (projected at 19 homers and 34 steals, down from 21 and 50). The big upside player is Kerry Wood, being kept at $3, but projected to be worth only $1 with 2 saves. Baseball HQ shows Marmol getting 23 saves for the Cubs.

The Falkuhns have lots and lots of keepers, but not enough spectacular keepers. Plus they have to deal with contract extensions for Fielder (we guessed $20) Phillips ($16), and Kelly Johnson (8). They also project 26 saves for Brian Wilson. That would be a save in every game won by the Giants this season. Speaking of which, Kenny 9 - odds on 100 Giant losses in 2008, please?

Third Tier – Hobos, Busch Leaguers and Pounders

It’s all about Matt Holliday among Hobo hitters. In fact, he’s the only hitter we have them keeping at this point. Noel always has several pitchers to keep, including 2 closers, Cordero and Gregg. We assume they will buy out Carpenter’s contract. Virtually all of their keeper profits are in Holliday and Gregg.

The Leaguers have a short keeper list, but on it is Hanley Ramirez, who is projected at $41 (26 HR, 43 steals, both stats less than 2007). We have him only keeping 1 pitcher, Gorzellany, which fits his tradition of having $10 left for 7 pitchers in the end game. It will be interesting to see how Mr. Leaguer approaches this season.

OK, the Pounders have Wright and Utley. Baseball HQ only has Chris (SD) Young worth $11 (11 wins) which seems awfully low. We have him keeping Pedro, too, in his new hitter’s paradise, which would result in a $4 loss according to Shandler. And for Giants fans who are interested, they project Rowand at 16/69/9/.288. That RBI total shows you what they think of the Giants’ offense.

The Dregs – Any 9, Lickers, Bats

None of these teams is projected to have a great keeper. The best is the Lickers’ Yovani Gallardo, a $15 value kept at $5. He’s been getting hyped in the pre-season press, and based solely on that is our candidate for hyped player of the year. All of these teams have a lot of marginal keepers. I’d be inclined to remember that sometimes less is more.