The Fumble

It's Super Bowl week, and I can only write so much about Pedro Feliz. So here's a little football nostalgia.

There’s The Play (I was there), The Catch (I shoulda been there), The Drive (1986 AFC Championship Game) and The Fumble (1987 AFC Championship Game). I imagine there is another “The” out there, but my focus today is on The Fumble.

Reading Posnanski’s blog, it is clear that as an old Clevelander, he has not yet recovered from the Browns losing the ’86 and ’87 AFC Championship games to the Broncos. He hates John Elway, who, by the way, was involved with three of those events mentioned above.

I was flipping channels last night and the Duece had a 90 minute retrospective on the 1987 AFC Championship Game. It was one of the great all-time games, and an incredible bookend for the ’86 game in which Elway drove the Broncos 98 yards in overtime to win it. In the ’87 game the Browns showed great heart, coming back from being down 21-3 at the half to tie it at 31, only to give the Broncos another touchdown with 4 minutes to go. That fateful drive by the Browns was tragic for their best player, Earnest Byner, who despite a fine NFL career, will always be remembered for his fumble at the 2 yards line as he was going in for the tying score. It was a Buckneresque moment.

As an old fantasy football player, it was fun to see those names from the past: Bernie Kosar, Webster Slaughter, Brian Brennan, Kevin Mack and Ozzie Newsome for the Browns, Sammy Winder, Ricky Nattiel, Mark Jackson and Vance Johnson (weren’t they the 3 Amigos or was that someone else?) for Denver. This game was about Earnest Byner, who strapped the Browns on his back and carried them back to the brink of the Super Bowl. He rushed 15 times for 67 yards and a touchdown, and caught 7 passes for 120 yards and another score. In PEFA terms, it was a 30 point game.

Byner was a hell of a player. A 4th round pick of the Browns in 1984, he had a 14 year career in which he rushed for 8,261 yards, which puts him 31st all-time. He was an all-pro three times including 1987-8, the year of The Fumble. He also caught 512 passes, which is a big number for a running back, and he’s 37th all-time in total yards from scrimmage. He’s probably not a hall of fame player, but he was a top player for a long time. He got a ring, too, as an all-pro running back for the Redskins in the 1991-2 season.

Byner and Mack were probably the greatest ever power running tandem. Mack was a brute, but he didn’t hit people any harder than Byner. And in this specific game, Byner was just killing the Broncos defense. On the play for which he will always be remembered, Jeremiah Castille, a cornerback, stripped him at the 2 and recovered the ball for what was surely his greatest moment ever. Castille was out wide covering Slaughter, and at the last second he dropped back a few yards instead of jamming him at the line. This gave Castille the perspective to see it was a run over tackle, and he abandoned Slaughter to fill the hole. Byner never saw him.

In an interview, Castille said that he had time to decide what he should do to try to stop Byner. He said that Byner had just been punishing everyone all day, and there was no way he could stop him if he tried to tackle him. He was faced with the desperation move – strip the ball. So he ran across Byner’s body, and swiped at the ball which he held wide in the crook of his arm. The ball came out clean, and Castille fell on it. What I like about this story is that it shows the respect the Broncos had for Byner, who could really give out punishment.

Everyone participating in the game likes to note that there would be no way the Browns would have come back without Byner’s great play. Unfortunately, he is forever remembered for that one, disastrous moment. Art Modell said that Byner was inconsolable after the game, having felt he let down both his teammates and the City of Cleveland. Byner said he tried to take it like a man, but on the plane back to Cleveland he broke down and cried. He’s never made excuses. Fine player, Hall of Fame heart.

Volvo's Old Peter Happy Model

I am the current owner of 2 Volvos. Sorry, let me correct that for accuracy. My wife owns a Volvo and she and I own a second Volvo.

We've owned nothing but Volvos since we bought our first one in 1983. She has insisted on it, and frankly, in my unmanly manner, I don't really give a shit. I'm a "My car is transportation" kind of guy. For those concerned to hear those words, allow me to allay your fears by confirming that I have an incredibly expensive and spectacular barbeque grill, which I use almost as much as I use my car (ok, my half a car).

So it is with much personal interest that I read in The McCovey Chronicles Grant's nostalgic comparison of his former 1984 beat to shit Volvo with his feelings for Pedro Feliz. You can read it here. It's one of the cleverest pieces I've seen Grant write, and I congratulate him. Here is a lovely paragraph at the end which sums up his feelings:

Every time I see an early '80s Volvo, it's nostalgia time. I don't think about
the hectares of black smoke that flowed from the exhaust every time the car was started. I don't think of the possum-in-a-rice-cooker smell of the interior. I just think of the car as a lyric in the opera of my early 20s. And if I were to see that exact Volvo again -- say, batting seventh for the Phillies -- I would stand and applaud.

Wow. Hectares of black smoke. Can't say I've ever used that word in a sentence. Woo - Hoo!

I love the writing, and I appreciate the sentiment, but I can't agree with it.

First, let me say something good about Pedro. He was the best home grown hitter on the Giants since Matt Williams. And since Matt is now under suspicion by the curmudgeonly Uncle George, maybe he's the best since The Thrill. Unfortunately that says more about the Giants' system than it does about Pedro the hitter.

But I just can't get over my feeling that he should be a better hitter than he is. He has all the tools, but he just can't lay off those first pitch curve balls. It feels like a flaw you can't forgive. Omar Vizquel is not a big guy, so he doesn't hit homeruns, and we can forgive him that shortcoming (so to speak). Pedro has the ability and the physical presence to really make contact with a ball, but it seems his head gets in the way, which makes it his fault. I know it isn't really, after all, hitting a major league curve ball that you don't know is coming is almost certainly the toughest thing in sport. I don't care. He should have been better.

And maybe he'll be better, particularly in the Phillies bandbox. Good luck to you, Pedro. I wish you well, and I won't boo you like the other idiots boo Jeff Kent. But applaud? I think I'll have another forkful from my Cha Cha Bowl while Grant is applauding.

As for our Volvos, they are almost certainly our last. Hey, they're just Fords now. But I'll have my 2001 S-60 for quite a while longer, as I really don't drive all that much. There's only 56,000 miles on it, and I'm a drive-it-into-the-ground kind of guy. And speaking of my S-60, Grant has made an apt comparison between Pedro and Volvos in one regard: as I type this, my car is in the shop.

Stream of Unconscious

Today I’m going to try something new, albeit in an abbreviated way. At 12:55 I have opened a word file and begun a blog entry. I’m going to keep it open until I have to leave to pick up my car, which is in the shop. I’ll post whatever I’ve written along the way, in between tax returns.

It might suck. If it does, maybe I’ll post it anyway.

I’ve been reading Posnanski. What an amazing writer. If Joe were to raffle off hanging out with him for a day of covering baseball, I’d bid a real number. It would cost me the round trip from SFO to Kansas City, and I’d even throw in Joe’s dog and beer.

Of course, I’d be in Calvin Trillin’s old stompin’ grounds, KC, a place I’ve always dreamed of going to eat. The opening sentence of ol’ Cal’s first eatin’ book, “American Fried” is something along the lines of: “Not all of the best restaurants in the world are in Kansas City, just the top four or five.”

Look at all the cool apostrophes and dropped “g’s” in that paragraph! Now that’s writin’!

So I’d have a second great reason for going to Kansas City: a trip to Arthur Bryant’s BBQ, and Winstead’s for the greatest burger in the world, and the other not so fancy shmancy places Calvin recommends from his home town.

Of course, KC isn’t Joe’s real home town. He’s a Cleveland guy, though he appears to prefer Cincy chili. You notice I wrote “Cincy” instead of “Cincinnati” because I’m not really sure how to spell Cincinnati. I’m not sure where the “n’s” go. I think I have it right because my Word Spellcheck hasn’t underlined it, but then I don’t know why abbreviated box scores list the Reds as “Cinn.”

One of Calvin’s foody books includes an essay on Cincy Chili. I vaguely remember something about “3-way”, but being from San Francisco, I’m a little suspicious of that kind of arrangement, even if it’s just in my food. I’d be willing to give it a try, despite my periodic heartburn, but only if Ruhlman joins us.

Cincy is also famous for ice cream. I know this because I have a lovely client whose family was interned for a few years in Cincy, OH. She’s back on the west coast now, but she kept bragging about this great ice cream made at a place called Graeters. We had a weird hot spell in March a few years ago. We were working on Saturday (it’s what we do, after all, in the income tax world) and it was about 90 degrees in the office. Suddenly some guy from Fed Ex shows up with a big box. Inside was Graeters’ ice cream, about 4 pints of different flavors, being kept cold by dry ice. Believe me, 2000 mile ice cream on a 90 degree Saturday work day is might tasty. My client moved WAY up the list of favorite clients.

Speaking of ice cream, I’ve always loved coffee ice cream, even as a kid when I thought coffee itself tasted like somebody’s old shoe. I guess if you put enough sugar in something, you’ll like it. For those scoring at home, the same can be said for bacon, although since that goes without saying, I won’t actually say it. In fact, I simply don’t understand why everyone on earth doesn’t think coffee ice cream makes all the other flavors taste like, if not an old shoe, we’ll say something worth paying money for.

I also really like something crunch in my ice cream, either nuts, or chips, or something to provide resistance to my teeth as I bite. So why don’t we ever see “Coffee chip” or “Coffee Almond?” Instead, Baskins has Jamocha Almond Fudge. First of all, what’s with the “Ja” in front of “mocha?” Is that some kind of German or Swedish influence?

I’ll be back to ice cream in a moment, but I am suddenly reminded of a ski trip I took a few decades ago to the Laurentian Mountains with mon frère, Noah. I took some private lessons during the week from a ski teacher from Switzerland, who kept calling me “Yosh.” I liked it. I also remember it was mad cold that week, like twenty below. That week I also heard a young French-Canadian woman call somebody a cock-suck-aire, with accent on the “aire.” Larry David used that as a joke in Curb Your Enthusiasm, which made me think he might have been on that ski trip with us.

So back to coffee ice cream with something to chew in it. Why does Baskins have to shove a bunch of fudge in there? You can order coffee, or the gummed up fudgey coffee, and nothing in between. I don’t want it fudgey, I want it chewy. Hey, throw in bacon if you want, but keep the chocolate out. Putting chocolate in is for people who don’t actually like coffee. And it’s coffee ice cream, so everybody loves coffee ice cream, except I guess the people who have made Mango ice cream the #1 seller at Mitchell’s.

So I’ve yet to have a baseball reference in here yet. Hey, it isn’t baseball season. There is no baseball news out there unless you think Pedro Feliz signing with Philly (see, not Philadelphia, because I kinda get lost on the “l”) is worth more than these 11 words. I could throw in a few words about the Super Bowl, but aren’t we all sick of the New York – Boston sports rivalry?

OK, lemme find some baseball. I've opened another window and I’m looking on Rotoworld. And right away, here is a big Uh Oh:

USA Today believes the Mets have landed Johan Santana from the Twins for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber. A contract extension would still have to be worked out, so even if it is officially agreed to, this will likely linger through Friday at least. It's a pretty disappointing day for Twins fans. Both packages being discussed by the Red Sox and Yankees during the winter meetings seemed more attractive to us. Gomez and Guerra are big-time talents, but Gomez lacks plate discipline and might not fit in the top half of the lineup and an awful lot could go wrong before Guerra even sniffs the majors. Mulvey and Humber are third starters at best and probably more like fourths. It's a whole lot better than losing Santana for draft picks next winter, but we'd have taken a Phil Hughes or Jacoby Ellsbury package over this.

Not good for the Pickled Pecklers. We’re counting on Carlos Gomez playing for the Mets, or at least staying in the NL. Let’s hope the Twins come to their senses. Now I’m depressed.

Screw it, I’m going to pick up my car from the shop. I think I’ll stop at the Stone Cold Creamery on the way for ice cream made my way: Coffee with Bacon Bits. Yum.

Webbaaahhhh!!!

Rumor has it that Chris Webber is going to bookend his career with the Warriors, returning to be the power forward he never actually was for them. We certainly need one, though I guess we’re likely to find out if he’s got any gas in his tank. Given the high price of gas, it’s surprising he’ll sign for the prorated minimum salary.

Don Nelson and Chris Webber are together again. Wonderful! I was there, present and accounted for, the last time they played a game together. It was game 3 of the first round of the 1994 playoffs, in which Charles Barkley and the Suns won a classic shootout, 140-133 to sweep the Warriors. It was the Warriors’ last playoff game until last season.

The good old days: let’s reminisce. The starting lineup consisted of Latrell Sprewell, Chris Webber, Chris Mullin, Billy Owens and Avery Johnson, who replaced Tim Hardaway who tore his ACL or something during the preseason. Backups included Fatso and Skinny (Big Vic Alexander and Floppin’ Chris Gatling), Byron Houston, Keith Jennings and Jud Buechler. Now there are some names from the past.

It wasn’t long until Nellie traded Owens to one of those Florida teams for Rony Seikaly, which turned horribly ugly when Webber voided his contract. Webber bagat Tom Gugliatta, who begat Donyell Marshall in short order. Of the three, only Marshall is technically still playing. You could have gotten some serious odds against that back in 1995.

Maybe it will be ugly, and maybe it won’t. I don’t actually care much anymore, but one thing we know – if Nellie and Webbahhh get together again, it will be interesting. And after all of those bad, bad, bad years in the interim, interesting is good.

I got a comment today from Rickey Henderson about my column this weekend. I have no idea how he found it, or why he commented, but I exchanged some emails with him. I checked out Rickey’s blog. It’s damned funny. It makes me think he’ll give a great speech when he heads into the HOF next summer. Check him out, and now since we’re friends, I’ll link Rickey’s blog on my site.

I actually met Rickey once. The Doc and I were selling baseball cards at a show in Santa Clara back in 1989. Rickey was signing autographs there. He walked through the place, and stopped at our table. We featured a lot of old Giants baseball cards, and we also had our famous complete Bob Uecker card collection as our big draw. We sold a lot of Uecker cards for ridiculous prices.

Anyway, we had some Willie Mays cards in the case, and next to them we had a Rickey Rookie, which was selling for more than the later Mays cards. He asked how a Rickey Henderson card could possibly sell for more than a Willie Mays card. I explained the premium for rookie cards, and I pointed out that he would eventually break the all-time record for stolen bases as well as runs, and would end up in the Hall of Fame. I added that he would eventually manage a blog which would become world famous and would be linked to my blog which would be a little less famous. He immediately signed me up as his accountant and his personal financial representative, and a few years later I was the best man at his wedding. We now go hunting and fishing together, and he came with me to Oslo last year when I was awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. In my acceptance speech I acknowledged Rickey’s immense influence on my theories in which I disproved Einstein’s bullshit equation (E doesn’t equal squat). Rickey stood up to thunderous applause, as tears rolled down his cheeks. After all, he’s always been an emotional guy who loves Chick Flicks.

Somewhere in the middle of that paragraph (ok, probably near the beginning of that paragraph) I had a short break with reality, although the Nobel stuff is true.

Anyway, Rickey says check out Rickey's blog.

Weekend Update

Here’s a little weekend round up of items in baseball news. Some have a fantasy bent, some have a Giants bent, and some are just bent. Here is Sour Grapes post #350:

Free agent Mike Lieberthal said he's retiring after 14 big-league seasons. The Dodgers declined to bring Lieberthal back for $1.5 million. "If they would have picked up my option, I probably would have played one more year," Lieberthal said. "But I didn't want to go anywhere else. ... I'm totally in a very happy place now." Lieberthal, who turned 36 last month, finishes his career with a .274/.337/446 line, 150 homers and 610 RBI in 4,218 at-bats. The two-time All-Star had his best year in 1999, hitting .300 with 31 homers and 96 RBI.

=> We at the Pickled HQ have always had a fond spot for Mike Lieberthal. We discovered him in BABI. He was actually on our list in 1996 for a $1 backup catcher slot. We ended up picking him up during the season, and bought him in the 1997 draft for about $6, which earned us 20 homers, 77 RBIs and even 3 steals. Lieberthal was a pretty solid hitter for a while, but he was injury prone, so he was quite inconsistent. But he showed enough hitting ability that he was always overpriced in his later years, including 2007 when he went for $2. That 1999 season kind of smells of steroids, doesn’t it? We forgive him, because we like Mike.

The Mets have no plans to sign Livan Hernandez or another starter before resolving the Johan Santana situation, according to the The Daily News.

=> Rototimes says that Livan is about to turn 33. If you believe that, I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you cheap. He had over 200 innings last season with a 1.60 WHIP. The Mets need just that kind of player to keep them from a September collapse this season.

The Brewers are planning on giving Mat Gamel another year at third base before they consider moving him. Gamel, the MVP of the Hawaiian Winter League, made 53 errors on lousy infields in low-A ball last year. He's one of the Brewers' top prospects, but he may end up in the outfield.

=> Who the heck?? He’s 22 and just finished a season with the Brevard County Manatees. He’s got pop (only 9 homers, but 37 doubles and 8 triples) and he stole 14 bases while hitting .300. I like blaming the lousy infields in low-A ball. Isn’t 22 old for low-A? I think you guys should draft him high, but beware: his family couldn’t afford the second “t” in Mat.

Free agent Trot Nixon has been working on his defense at first base in order to increase his versatility. The Red Sox are looking for a left-handed hitter capable of backing up at first base, and Nixon has his agent asking whether they're interested. They'd probably prefer someone with more power, but it's possible they'll consider him if they can't land Brad Wilkerson.

=> I don’t want to write about Trot. I want to write about Brad Wilkerson. What the hell happened to him? He’s been playing for the Rangers, but is a free agent. Remember when he was a monster prospect? He had 32 homers and stole 13 bags for the Expos in 2004 at the age of 27. He’s 30 now, and is coming off a season when he hit 20 homers, but only had a .234 BA. He seems like the kind of guy the Giants should take a chance on.

At the Twins' request, Boof Bonser said he has lost about 20 pounds since the end of last season.

=> While dieting, he also lost the “f” at the end of his name.

The Dallas Morning News believes the Rangers turned down an offer of Matt Murton for Marlon Byrd.

=> I’d love to see the Giants make a run at Matt Murton. First of all, he has the second “t” in his name. Second, he’s 27, and he had the lowest BA of his career at .281, which doesn’t exactly stink. I had forgotten about ol’ Marlin Byrd when he headed to the AL last year, but he did hit .307 and 10 homers, albeit, in Arlington. In my mind, Byrd does stink, though I guess I can be wrong. Nahhh. I would have made that deal in a second if I were the Rangers’ GM.

Jason Bay isn't happy with the Pirates' direction, but he'd still prefer to stay with the team. "No, not at all," said Bay when asked if he wanted out. "I've always wanted to be a Pittsburgh Pirate. But I've wanted to play for a winning group of Pittsburgh Pirates. Hopefully, we can turn this team into a winner."

=> Why would anyone always want to be a Pirate? They suck, and they’ll always suck.
Bay only has $13.25 million left on the last 2 years of his contract. I know he had a bad year in 2007, but how can you not want to give him a shot? Come on, Sabes, go make a deal.

Pirates president Frank Coonelly said Friday that his team has offered Freddy Sanchez a long-term deal. There was no indication that the two sides were close to getting a deal done. Sanchez is asking for $4.9 million in arbitration and was offered $4.1 million. He'll be eligible for free agency after 2009.

=> See Jason Bay above.

Giants GM Brian Sabean said it's becoming increasingly unlikely that he'll add a first baseman prior to the start of spring training. The Giants have been rumored to be after Tony Clark, but Sabean doesn't seem interested in going there. "I don't know that we could marginally improve ourselves with anybody out there," he said. If the Giants don't add a first baseman, Dan Ortmeier would be the favorite to start at the position over Rich Aurilia. They'd have to be projected to have the worst first base production in the majors.

=> I have nothing to say except that this is your Giants’ front office. There is nobody out there who can marginally improve us over Rich Aurilia (5/33/0/.252) and an unproven Ortmeier? Nobody?

MLB.com reports that Paul Lo Duca suffered a right knee injury while working out at a New York gym earlier this week. The injury is being described as a "tweak," but he's expected to be examined further by Nationals team doctors after undergoing an MRI on Friday.

=> Yeah, that tweak in his knee is nowhere near as bad as the tweak in his head.

Free agent Damian Miller is leaning towards retirement at age 38. Miller was hoping to stay close to home and has turned down chances to compete for reserve jobs elsewhere. The Brewers, though, have decided to go with Eric Munson or Mike Rivera.

=> I’m no particular fan of Miller, but Munson has a lifetime BA of .214 and Rivera is at .239. What exactly was wrong with Johnny Estrada last year, who hit 278 with 10 homers?

The Yankees and Robinson Cano have agreed to a four-year, $30 million contract with two option years, according to SI's Jon Heyman. The option for 2012 is for $13 million and the option for 2013 is believed to be for about $15 million. Those would cover his first two years of free agency.

=> I don’t get why someone would sign a contract with 2 gigantic option years. Either he’s going to be worth a hell of a lot of money after 4 years, in which case he can sign a gigantic contract, or the Yankees are going to pass. I feel that Cano is shortchanging himself one way or the other. Remind me to check on this in 2012.

Federer, Nadal, Djokovic And The Other Guy

What the hell happened down under in Melbourne yesterday?

I saw online during the early afternoon (PST) that some guy nobody ever heard of beat the puss out of Raffy Nadal. He didn’t just win, he crushed him 2, 3 and 2. Beaten by a guy unseeded and unknown, Raffy said afterward he didn’t know how to deal with incredible screaming shot after incredible screaming shot.

As I said, I read about it during the day at work. When I got home, I kept watching Sports Center on ESPN for a report on that match, and on the Federer-Djokovic match which must have followed.

Not a peep.

I kept wading through the reports of all of those NBA games I could care less about, and all of the those NHL games I care even less about, and Tiger in the first round of the Buick and women’s college basketball. I think there was even a report on a curling match in Altoona.

Nothing on the men’s semi-finals of the first of tennis’ grand slams.

I did not find out until this morning that Federer also went down in three sets yesterday. Two enormous, gigantic, gargantuan upsets of the number 1 and 2 players in the semi-finals of a Grand Slam event, and not one word last night on ESPN, the station that IS BROADCASTING THE FREAKING EVENT.

It kind of tells you where tennis stands as a sport.

The funny thing is, for the first time, I’ve really been following the Australian Open. On Friday night, I started watching Federer and Tipsarovic, a match which began at 10PM. It ended 4-1/2 hours later, and I was still watching. It both made and ruined my weekend. I’ve even watched some of these Serbian girls play. Just as I’m been getting into it, Nadal and Federer went down in the semis – and suddenly it’s nowhere to be found. The Doc said ESPN broadcast the Federer match last night starting at 12:30 AM.

I guess the final is on sometime tomorrow. Or is that today, since they are on the other side of the international date line? I have yet to see this “other guy” who is playing Djokovic. Notice I actually can spell his name correctly, but I don’t know the other guy’s name. Is it Jon Bon-Jovi, or Bonomo Turkish Taffy, or Jo Jo White, or something like that? He's the guy who looks like Muhammad Ali.

ESPN could care less – the deuce is broadcasting the finals of a Scrabble Tourney. "Yeah, baby! Double word score!"

Pedro, Nice To See You (Leave)

We spoke, we yelled, we screamed, we cursed, and the Giants finally, finally, finally have heard. The Pedro Feliz era in San Francisco is over.

Pedro is a funny piece of our puzzle. If you have a good team with a strong lineup, you can afford Pedro. He’ll hit his 20 dingers, strike out too much, drive in a bunch of runs (mostly when you don’t need them), have his usual sub .300 OBA, and field third base (and the occasional first base, and shortstop and even catcher) with the best of them, maybe even better than the rest of them. If the Giants had swapped Pedro for Lowell last season, the Red Sox would still have won it all.

On a team like the Giants, though, which is clearly at the least going to stink offensively, how can you justify a slick fielding third baseman with a little power whose only consistency at the plate is swinging and missing first pitch curve balls? They have to do better at the corners. By the way, Pedro's not exactly an up and comer anymore - he’s going to be 33 in April. His final stats as a Giant: 109 homers, 418 RBI’s, 12 steals and a .252 BA over 7 years plus 7 at bats. See ya.

The Giants are talking about Joe Crede. Now I don’t know Joe Crede from Joe Bonano, Crede being a career American Leaguer. I do know he hit 30 homers in 2006, but he had back surgery last year.

Actually his major league career is almost exactly the same at Pedro’s. They both came up for a few games in 2000 - Crede's career is 7 seasons plus 14 at bats. His numbers include 108 homers, 367 RBI’s, 4 steals and a .259 BA. His on base percentage is consistently slightly over .300. He has struck out 14.7% of the time compared to 17.6% for Pedro. I assume he doesn’t field as well.

He will be only 30 in April. On the other hand…HE’S COMING OFF BACK SURGERY.
He sounds like the perfect downgrade. $50 million, 5 years. Don’t worry – you’re gonna love him! Like Rowand, he’s a gamer! Oh yeah - he'll only cost us Noah Lowry.

Let's try to do a little better. Oh, one last thing...as far as I can tell, Crede has no major league catching experience. Pedro, on the other hand, was a catcher in every NL-only fantasy league in the country for the second half of last season.

New Friends

I've added 4 sites and removed a couple of obsolete ones from my links on the left side of this page. You'll be happy to know that Larry Dot Net Dot Com is NOT one of the obsolete links that I have removed. Larry, I have faith.

Anyone who read the Buck Book ("The Soul of Baseball") knows Joe Posnanski. Joe Pos now has a blog, and it is killer stuff. You should all be regular readers. I've also provided a link to his Kansas City Star columns.

I actually found Joe's site by being directed to ShysterBall, written by a lawyer/baseball fan. Remember in My Cousin Vinny when Ralph Macchio's friend points to Vinny and says "I want that guy?" Well, if I ever get in real trouble, I want this guy.

Finally, there is a group site called Baseball Analysts. There is a lot of stuff there. Some of it is readable, some not readable, at least by me. Don't get me wrong - it's great stuff and great writing, but god, these guys make The Doc look like he's got a life. But I've got to link any site that has 22 entries on why Bert Blyleven should be in the Hall of Fame.

If you have time to kill, check out Posnanski's blog. Incredible. Hilarious. What I wish Sour Grapes could be. And would be, if I had professional talent. And don't forget to pick up a dozen copies of the book.

Blyleven's Shutouts

Man, there are a lot of baseball websites out there. Today I found BaseballAnalysts.com, which has a whole series of articles on whether Bert Blyleven should be in the HOF. This is definitely a bunch of guys with a lot of time on their hands.

As you know, I’m all for Bert getting into the Hall. My principle argument is that he’s 5th all-time in strikeouts, and he has more than Walter Johnson. Walter Johnson is my Mason-Dixon line. If you have more K’s than The Big Train, you’re in. Well, for Bert, not yet.

In one of the articles on the BaseballAnalysts.com site, they compare Blyleven’s shutout totals to his contemporaries in the Hall. Those contemporaries are: Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal, Fergie Jenkins, Phil Niekro and Catfish Hunter. This is an awfully good list of pitchers. Here’s what they said:

Shutouts may not be as meaningful of a gauge in today's era when complete games are a rarity, but they were a great measure of pitching prowess prior to the 1990s. More than anything else, dominant pitchers threw shutouts….

Blyleven, who ranks ninth in career shutouts, is third among his HoF contemporaries in blanking the opposition, one behind the leaders (Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver). He ranks sixth in shutouts as a percentage of games started. As such, you can see that Blyleven's success was not just about longevity. He had more white washes and notched them at a greater rate than Don Sutton, Steve Carlton, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins and Phil Niekro.

Blyleven won 15 1-0 games - more than of any of these pitchers. He ranks third all time in the number of 1-0 victories, trailing only Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson. On the other hand, Blyleven lost nine 1-0 games - also more than any of these pitchers. That's not a negative. If anything, it is indicative of his poor run support over the years (which, according to Chris Jaffe's Run Support Index or Pete Palmer's SUP, ran about 3-4% below average for Blyleven's career).

He’s third all time in 1-0 victories behind WHO?? Holey Moley! Dem’s some big names!
The more I look at Blyleven, the more I wonder how the hell Catfish Hunter got in the Hall. Hey, I like Catfish. But his numbers pale in comparison.

This Space For Rent

As I was writing the piece below about the status of our team, it occurred to me that it represented an opportunity to advertise what we have available and that we’re open for business. So I made some sly references to trade possibilities.

The internet is all about advertising. Almost nobody makes any money at it, but figuring out ways to make a buck on the net is the in-thing these days. Figure out a good one, and Google will buy you for a stupid number.

So, let’s see if I can add 1 and 1: I’ve always been willing to publish just about anything in this blog that my boys send. So if you would like, I’ll be happy to publish a self-promoting team analysis for any of you. And unlike the ridiculous prices to be found elsewhere, it will only cost you one thin twenty dollar bill.

In advance.

Just think – you’ll be able to advertise your needs, and earn that $20 back. And if you don’t think this space has power in BABI, if not anywhere else, just remember the day two seasons back when I posted a hint that the Pecklers were going to dump. Within hours, the Elder Barry did one of the ugliest dump deals ever, because Sour Grapes had announced that the GREAT PICKLED DUMP OF 2006 was about to begin.

Our motto: “All the news that’s shit, we print.”

So send in your little ditties. We’re happy to post your BABI infomercials in this hallowed space. And don’t forget to send along a Jackson.

Come and Get 'em

It is sometimes difficult to remember what my purpose is here, what with pictures of ribs and pot shots at my buddies. I do know that one of the purposes is to track the activities of our own Pickled Pecklers. We’ve had some activity recently that affects us, so let me take a masturbatory moment to review where the team stands for 2008:

We have 7 sure fire, no brainer, top quality keepers, the guys you can’t get from us in trade:

1B - James Loney $5/09F – He showed the batting skills he always had shown, and added some serious power that he had only hinted at in the past.

SS - Jack Wilson $4/09 – Wilson had a monster second half, and showed power. Now if the Pirates would only stop batting him eighth...

OF - Eric Byrnes $13/08 – The poor man's Hanley Ramirez. We’re sure to raise him to $18. He became a true 4 category guy for the first time this season, and had 50 steals to go with his 21 homers. We’ll be happy with 20 homers and 30 steals, but he showed monster fantasy upside.

OF - Hunter Pence $5/09F – I think we can assume he won’t start in AAA this year. He’s got great speed for his size, and should mature into a 4 category stud. He’s likely to move to right field from center now that they have Michael Bourn. If will be interesting to see where they bat him in the linup.

SP - Brandon Webb $19/08C – Webb begins his final year for us after another phenomenal, staff anchoring season. I remember that we really liked him when we bid on him, even though we had no intention of actually buying him. When the bidding stopped at $14, we were shocked and thrilled as we moved on to Plan B.

SP - Adam Wainwright $4/08 – We’re not likely to extend him, but he had a good season in every category but WHIP, which improved to 1.243 from June through September. His ERA in the last 4 months was 2.97. Maybe we should extend him, though Geo would say we’re nuts.

RP -Kerry Wood $3/09 – He could be huge, and at worst will be a waste of a slot. If he ends up the closer in Chicago, he’s gold.

So that’s 7 for $58 (or $63 if we extend Wainwright). And we have one more guy who we’re pretty sure we’re going to keep, so long as he’s on an NL roster on cutdown day:

OF Carlos Gomez $5/09F – He’s probably the #4 guy in the Mets’ OF. Shawn Green hasn’t signed anywhere, but the Mets don’t seem interested in resigning the free agent. Gomez is faster than Reyes. At the worst he’ll put up Amezaga numbers.

So that’s 8 for $63 or $68. Unfortunately, our long potential keeper list is being whittled away.

The rest of these guys could be available in a deal. (Either a player, or a draft pick – we have no farm keepers). People we are considering keeping but would trade include:

3B - Ryan Zimmerman $21/08 – He had wrist surgery in the off season. If we know he’s healthy, we’ll keep him, partly because he’s worth it and will go for more in the auction, and partly because third base is going to be nasty this year. It’s going to be no fun to be without a keeper at 3B.

1B - Nick Johnson $10/09 –We hear he’s still a slow healer. We won’t know until March, but if you think he’s a bargain, come and get him.

1B - Tony Clark 1B $2/09 – A month ago we were sure we’d keep him. It hurt us and him when he didn’t say OK to the Dback’s 2 year deal. We think he’ll end up with the Giants. He’s a lefty, so you’ve got to figure some of those homers will turn into doubles.

SS Jeff Keppinger $5/09X – He had a great finish last year, but even though he plays all of the infield positions, he’s likely not going to start at any of them. Even as a backup, he might get 300 at bats, but since we already have a SS, we probably won’t keep him. BTW, this is going to be a bad, bad, bad position to fill in the auction.

SP - Kevin Correia $6/09X – We’d keep him if he was a little cheaper, though he could easily earn this pitching in a pitcher’s park.

RP - Mike Gonzalez $9/09 – Hurt. Too bad.

RP - Octavio Dotel $18/09X – Gone to the AL today.

RP - Jon Rauch $5/09 – The Nationals signed Cordero, so it looks like Rauch is still the setup man. Deals could still be made, but he’s probably not going to start the season as a closer.

And don't forget: Craig Wilson $8/09 is also available. It won't take much of an offer to land him.

Keep Hope Alive

I was looking at the 2008 roster of the Busch Leaguers. There are a few nice pieces, but it is clear that a rebuilding program will be required. It’s always fascinating to watch our league’s finest fantasy master manage through the lean times. This will be such a year.

I say this because there is not a single long-term bargain in his system. This looks like his keeper list:

3B – Garrett Atkins 19/08C
Great player, getting better, but it’s the last year of contract

SS – Hanley Ramirez 11/08
BABI’s best keeper, but he’s got to go to at least 21/10. There is a lot of value there, and he is the basis of the Busch Leaguers going forward.

MI – Jimmy Rollins 43/09
The Doc isn’t sure he’ll keep Rollins, but I’m going to guess he will. With Ramirez, he’s already got almost enough stolen bases, and he provides power as well. He’s fine, coming off a career year, but he’s fully priced.

2B – Jeff Kent 22/09
I’m starting to think he’s a keeper. He had 20 homers and 36 doubles, and he hit .347 in the last half of the season. He’s fully priced, but he’s still a legitimate hitter.

OF -- Mike Bourn 6/08X
They say he’s starting in centerfield. Houston’s CF at the beginning of last year didn’t work out so well. We don’t really know if Bourn can hit major league pitching, but apparently we’ll find out pretty quickly. He’s in the final year of his contract.

SP – Tom Gorzelanny 7/09
That was a nice pick last year. He's not exactly a staff anchor, though.

I think that’s it. He’s got Ethier at $13, but he’s going to be a platoon player this season at best. That’s 6 players for $99, including no closers and only one starting pitcher.

There are also a couple of farm players.

Dexter Fowler – He’s a 22 year old speedy outfielder who played at Hi A last season. He’s at least 2 years away.

Brent Lillibridge – He stole 40 bags at AA and AAA last year. He can hit a little and has a little pop. He’s not listed anywhere on the Braves’ depth chart, but it seems he’s ready to play.

I’m sure we can expect him to have $9 for his last 7 spots, 6 pitchers and a backup catcher. It should be entertaining.

In looking at Bourn and the Houston depth chart for this analysis, I realized that the Astros have completely rebuilt their starting lineup in two years. Only Lance Berkman was on the Astros in 2005. Their depth chart for 2008:

C – J.R. Towles
1B – Lance Berkman
2B – Kaz Matsui
SS – Miguel Tejada
3B – Ty Wigginton
LF – Carlos Lee
CF – Michael Bourn
RF – Hunter Pence

The Giants don’t have any pieces to throw around the league in trade, but it’s nice to see that another old team was able to put together an offense that isn’t terribly embarrassing. Keep hope alive!

Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine, Dr. Howard

From Rotoworld:

The Phillies and their young superstar, Ryan Howard appear to be headed to arbitration. The Phils have offered him $7 million, but Howard wants $10 million.

“Hey, I’m worth it” Ryan told the Philadelphia Enquirer yesterday. “I’ve hit 105 homers and driven in 285 runs in the past two seasons. Kenny 9 knows I’m worth it – he extended me until the year 2040. Without me, the Pickled Pecklers would have kicked his ass last season.”

Actually, the Pickled Pecklers did kick Kenny 9’s ass last season, but Howard has seemed confused about BABI matters ever since he made a fool of himself at the Home Run Derby during the All-Star weekend in San Francisco.

Bite Me!

The Doc finally got around to the next 2 installments of my series and we discussed it last night. He confirmed my thoughts – we’re not going to publish it. It is officially proprietary, and will affect Pickled Peckler Purchase Point Philosophy for 2008 and beyond. Is that a Pledge Pin? On your uniform?

We’ve given out all we care to on this subject for free. If you want to purchase our revolutionary information, we are willing to negotiate for either cash, a keeper, or a draft pick. We're willing to throw in the Doc's Jeep, so long as you tow it away.

One caveat on everything I have written about the 2007 BABI auction: it is a market, and markets adjust. When someone has success with a contrarian strategy, others will adopt that strategy such that it is no longer contrarian. Values change, and the new winner will be the new contrarian, possibly doing what everyone else was doing before but no longer are. Or, maybe, some other strategy.

This is a game about value, and value exists when everyone else thinks you are wrong. It is not easy to bet against the herd mentality. We’re all affected by what we read and hear from others, and it takes a special constitution to consistently implement a strategy that flies in the face of conventional wisdom. The Bums have that special constitution. So does Mr. Leaguer, and that has allowed him to be consistently successful over the years.

We’d like to add, so does Kenny 9, our #1 rival, and lately, our whipping boy. He has his own opinions and he is evangelistic about them. Of course, in his case, that is generally a good thing for us all. Just because you are different and are willing to look your opponents in the eye and say “Bite Me”, it doesn’t mean you will be right.

Intermission

I haven't disappeared.

I actually have written the next installments (2) of my series. However, we've had some profound discoveries in the process. I've sent them to the censor department for review. We're deciding whether we're going to publish it. Until then, the information is marked "Classified."

In the meantime, I suggest you head over to Macy*s and ride up and down in the elevator, while you listen to Sour Grapes On Hold music.

Hey, if you want the information, buy a subscription.

Cheap Arms - For A Reason

Fifth of a Series.

We’re looking at the record number of $1 players purchased in the 2007 BABI auction. Traditionally there are a few $1 pitchers who are useful and keepable. It didn’t work out so well in 2007. Here are the cheapos:

Category 1 – The most keepable guy, except he got waived:

Correia, Kevin - waived
4W 7L 101IP 80K 3.45 1.32

The best pitcher picker, Mr. Leaguer, picked up Correia as a possible closer in San Francisco. It didn’t work out that way, so he waived him. At the end of the season, he found himself added to the Giants’ rotation, and he pitched well. The Pecklers, chasing wins, picked him up for $6 and got his last 36 innings. He was actually unlucky, getting only 2 wins despite a 2.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’d definitely be kept at a buck, and he’s a marginal keeper at $6 if you have a crappy keeper list. Yeah, he’s available.

Category 2 – Not really keepable, but they pitched ok:

Ayala, Luis - Bats
2W 2L 42IP 28K 3.19 1.30

The Nats resigned Chad Cordero, and Jon Rauch is still ahead of him, but Luis Ayala had a pretty good comeback from a serious injury.


There is one interesting statistic for Ayala: he had the only save of anyone on this list.

If Cordero had been (or is eventually) traded, he’ll be a sure keeper, despite suffering an offseason bizarre injury. He has a bruised nerve in his upper forearm from being hit by a shotgun pellet during a hunting trip. He plays for a team in Washington DC. Could it have been this guy? On Ayala, th-th-that's all folks.

Cruz, Juan - Old Rips
6W 1L 61IP 87K 3.10 1.262

He’s 4th in line behind Pena, Lyon and Qualls (in some order, who knows). Or maybe he’s a starter. He did pitch well overall. Check out crazy those strikeouts. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boof finds a place for him on his keeper list.


Category 3 – Technically, he didn’t hurt:

Hampton, Mike - Bums
Not a single stat

We doubt the Bums are planning on keeping him. Offseason update: Hampton hurt himself (his hamstring) in the first inning of his first start in the Mexican Winter League.

Category 4 – Guys that weren’t good, but they weren’t Jim Bullinger:

Coutlangus, Jon - Hobo
4W 2L 41IP 35K 4.39 1.59

Johnson, Tyler - waived
1W 1L 38IP 24K 4.03 1.24

Mitre, Sergio - Falkuhns
5W 8L 149IP 80K 4.65 1.483

Paronto, Chad - waived
3W 1L 40IP 14K 3.57 1.64

My favorite guy on this list is the last, who I nicknamed Tonto Paronto.

We really have nothing to say about these bums except that the bums listed below were even bigger bums than the above bums.

Category 5 – Brutal Relievers

Cormier, Lance - waived
2W 6L 45IP 27K 7.09 1.71

Kuo, Hong-Chih - Old Rips
1W 4L 30IP 27K 7.42 1.62

Stanton, Mike - Any 9
1W 3L 57IP 40K 5.93 1.61

Wagner, Ryan - Cartel
0W 2L 15IP 9K 5.74 1.79

Three of these 4 guys survived on their original teams all season. How?

Remember just one season ago when Stanton was the Giants’ closer?

Category 6 – WHIP Wreckers

Cook, Aaron - waived
8W 7L 166IP 61K 4.47 1.47

Miller, Wade - waived
0W 1L 13IP 6K 10.54 2.20

Moyer, Jamie - waived
14W 12L 199IP 133 5.01 1.44

Tomko, Brett - waived
4W 12L 131IP 105K 5.55 1.50

Wells, David - waived
9W 9L 157IP 82K 5.43 1.54

Wells, Kip - waived
7W 17L 162IP 122 5.70 1.62

If you are a starter and you suck, you'll get waived. Not as true for those relievers, though. And I guess this is an item for rules discussion. Are we too forgiving about these guys? We didn't have anyone on this list, because in the auction, techincally we paid $0 for Mike Pelfrey.

Moyer did get 14 wins, a useful number. But when a pitcher has 199 innings with an ERA over 5, you need a lot of really, really great innings to offset that.

Here is a great BABI stat on Tomko: he was the ONLY pitcher the Bums waived or reserved last season. That’s how bad he was.

Category 7 – Lest we forget:

There was one more guy on this list. His season did not work out too well. Maybe this is the guy that allowed the Pecklers pass Any 9, who used a roster spot for him. This is what we said several months ago when we evaluated him:

Hancock, Josh - sucked, waived, dead

OK, we’re cold. Bite us.

One last entry to this series to come.

The Flip Side

Fourth of a series.

With all the spending on forty and fifty dollar players last season, we ended up buying 39 $1 players in a frenzied end game.

When you buy a one dollar player, you are hoping for one of two things: a guy who will be worth $5 in stats this season, or a guy who will not necessarily have a good season, but who may turn into a good $1 keeper the following year. Here is a list of all the hitters bought for a buck last year.

Category 1 - 2008 Keepers:

Belliard, Ronnie
Old Rips
11HR 58RBI 3SB .290BA 511AB

The only true excellent $1 purchase. He was picked up by the Nats as a last minute injury replacement, and he decided not to completely suck for a change. Good stats, good keeper.

Hopper, Norris
Any 9
0HR 14RBI 14SB .329BA 307AB

Hop hop hop to Hoppers. Showed enough speed and slap hitting to be worth keeping at a buck. They have a crowded OF, but if he can hit over .280, his speed makes him a sure keeper, particularly with Kenny 9’s sparse keeper list.

Category 2 - If you’re keeping these guys, you’ve got a bad keeper list:

Anderson, Marlon
Hobo
3HR 27RBI 4SB .295BA 95AB

He was hurt for a long time last year, but he finished 2006 strong and for a buck, he’ll get you some stats. Hank’s got a pretty non-existent hitter keeper list after Matt Holliday.

Mench, Kevin
Hobo
8HR 37RBI 3SB .267BA 288AB

He was released after the season by the Brewers, so he’s not all that good, and he may not be in the major leagues to start the season, but if you spent a buck on this guy, you’d be satisfied with those stats.

Category 3 - Guys who would be kept, but they were waived during the season:

Frandsen, Kevin
waived
5HR 31RBI 4SB .269BA 264AB

This guy absolutely sucked until September, but he had a great last month in which he got pretty much all of his stats. He has a chance to be the starter at 3B for the Giants, and at the least, he’ll be a super sub in the infield.

Ross, Cody
waived
12HR 39RBI 2SB .335BA 173AB

The Bums were so good they could waive this guy to activate Ryan Braun. The Pecklers picked him up on waivers and he finished the season for them 7-19-0-.375 in 80 at bats.

Category 4 - Why would anyone keep these guys?

Carroll, Jamey - Lickers
2HR 22RBI 6SB .225BA 227AB

Cedeno, Ronny - waived
4HR 13RBI 2SB .212BA 74AB

Cruz, Jose - Lickers
6HR 21RBI 6SB .248BA 256AB

Miller, Damian - waived
4HR 24RBI 1SB .237BA 186AB

Niekro, Lance - Cartel
0HR 0RBI 0SB .217BA 17AB

Pena, Brayan - waived
4HR 3RBI 0SB .212BA 33AB

Saenz, Olmedo - waived
4HR 18RBI 0SB .191BA 110AB

Snelling, Chris Cartel
1HR 7RBI 0SB .246BA 69AB

Olmedo Saenz seemed like a pretty good $1 pick based on his 2006 season: 11 HR, 48 RBI, .296 BA. What the hell happened?

Lance Niekro was a concept. What I love most is that the Cartel spent $10 to reserve him. We shouldn't laugh - we spent $10 to reserve Craig Wilson. By the way, he is available in trade.

Ronny Cedeno was even worse last year than Cesar Izturis.

Is Damian Miller now the starter for the Brewers since they traded Estrada?

Category 5 - Finally, here is the Bizarro World extreme speculation keeper list:

Aybar, Willy - Hobo
Mr. Blutarsky, zero point zero. You have no stats for 2007.

Callaspo, Alberto - Lickers
0HR 7RBI 1SB .215BA 144AB
Is he strictly a AAAA player?

DaVanon, Jeff - waived
0HR 6RBI 1SB .213BA 89AB
Traded to the Lickers by the Pounders. Then traded to Oakland and dropped by the Lickers. Now he's signed with Padres, but only a minor league deal. He's always had speed. He might stick.

Gimenez, Hector - Hobo
2 AB's, no stats
I really don't know who this guy is.

Guzman, Cristian - Lickers
2HR 14RBI 2SB .329BA 174AB
I really don't care who this guy is.

Repko, Jason - Any 9
Did not play in 2007, but he got paid by the Dodgers.

Every one of these guys had a season narrated by Rod Serling, particularly Willy Aybar. Hey, Willy could be Hobo’s best 2008 keeper.

Again, there is nobody except Cody Ross on this list who was bought by the Bums. Is there a lesson here?

Tomorrow: the $1 pitchers.

The King Stay The King

No baseball here.

The Wire began its fifth and final season this week. As a result, it’s been getting a lot of publicity from the critics who love it.

My opinion: it’s the finest series ever broadcast in television history. So I guess I like it.
In advance of the season, HBO produced a couple of short pieces about the series history and about the fifth season. In one of them, various cast members identify their favorite scenes. I have two, neither of which were mentioned.

The first was a scene from the first season, episode 3. The late, great D’Angelo Barksdale explains chess to Wallace and the late, great Bodie in a way that they can understand. The tag line for the episode comes from this dialogue: “The king stay the king.”

You can see the clip on You Tube here. In the meantime, I found a somewhat edited printout of the dialogue:

"See this?" he picks up and kisses the king. "This the king pin. He da man. You get the other dude's king, you got the game. But he tries to get your king too because that's the game. Now the king he move any direction he damn choose, because he the king. But he got no hustle. The rest of the other motherfuckers, they got his back and they run so deep, he ain't got to do shit."

Now you see this?" He picks up the queen. "This the queen. She smart, she fierce. She move any way she want, as far as she want. And she is the go-get-shit-done piece.

"And this over here is the castle, it's like the stash, it move like this and like this."

One of the kids points to the pawns and says, "What about these little bald-headed bitches here?"

"These the pawns. They the soldiers. One space forward only. Except when they fight, they go sideways. They like the front lines. They be in the field."

"How they get to be the king?"

"It ain't like that. See, the king stay the king. Everything stay who he is, except for the pawns. Now if a pawn make it to the other dude's side, he get to be queen. Like I said, the queen ain't no bitch. She got all the moves."

You’ve got to love it – little bald headed bitches.

The other scene is the opening scene of Season 4, Episode 38. In this scene we meet Snoop, who was actually convicted of juvenile murder in real life. She (yes, Snoop is a she) heads to a Home Depot-like hardware store to buy a nail gun, which she will use to board up dilapidated buildings after burying her murder victims inside.

Unfortunately I don’t have printed dialogue here, because it’s pretty much impossible to understand every word. But you can see the clip posted on You Tube here.

If you are not watching, maybe these clips will give you some idea of what you are missing. And maybe they won’t. All I can say is that in our household, this is priority number two, after ball playing with Max.

BABI's 2007 Over $30 Players

Third of the series.

At the 2007 BABI auction, 9 players went for $40 or more, and an additional 8 went between $30 and $39. Four of the 8 $30-39 players were hitters, two were closers and two were starting pitchers.

We’ll start with the hitters. Here is the list and their stats (HR/RBI/SB/BA), for both 2007 and 2006:

Andruw Jones – 39 (Pecklers)
We discussed Andruw’s travails in the posting two days ago. It was ugly, particularly that .222 BA.

Bill Hall – 33 (Any 9)
2007 -- 14/63/4/.254
2006 --35/85/8/.270

We said “$32.” Before the season, Bill Hall (who qualified at short last year) predicted that he would steal 20 bases. He came up a little short. Fortunately Kenny 9 must have read the same thing, and he topped us. By the way, he thought he stole Hall at $33.

Adam Dunn – 31 (Lickers)
2007 – 40/106/9/.264
2006 – 40/92/7/.234
Dunn always scares people with his .248 lifetime batting average. He’s hit exactly 40 home runs for 3 straight years, and he always steals a few bags to boot. He was a superb value last season, is probably a keeper for 2008.

Ryan Freel – 30 (Cappers)
2007 – 3/16/15/.245 (75 games)
2006 – 8/27/37/.271

Here is the risk of chasing the one category speedster. Freel got hurt, and was history by August 3. But even if he had finished the season, he would have been 4/24/22/.245 at the rate he was going. Here is one of the reasons why Geo quit early.

Three bums, one excellent value. That is a bad percentage, and interestingly, much worse than the over $40 players. You expect the over $40 players to do better, of course, but you would also expect the average overpayment for stats to be higher. I've always theorized that the most expensive players are less affected by inflation than this next tier as a percentage, because it feels so painful to say "$47" or "$58" that there is a natural ceiling. For BABI, though, last year was the ultimate in stars and scrubs auction bidding (39 $1 players), so the expensive guys were really expensive.

The $30+ starting pitchers were:

Jake Peavy – 34 (Bats)
2007 – 19 wins, 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
2006 – 11 wins, 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

There is no denying that the Cy Young winner was worth this huge bid for a starter. It is so risky to buy a starter for a big number, but it certainly worked. Unfortunately for the Elder Barry, the rest of his pitching picks weren’t so great.

What I want to know is where did Barry get the balls to bid $34 on a guy with those 2006 stats? He had a lot of hype as a comeback player, but that is a huge bid for a guy with an ERA north of 4. Plus what I REALLY want to know is: who said $33???

Ben Sheets – 31 (Falkuhns)
2007 – 12 wins, 3.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
2006 – 6 wins, 3.82 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

It certainly wasn’t a $31 year. LDN kept complaining about how Dontrelle was killing his pitching numbers, but this guy did not provide $31 in stats even though he didn’t suck.

Billy Wagner – 38 (Any 9)
2007 – 34 saves, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
2006 – 40 saves, 2.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

I don’t think any closer is worth $38. Wagner had a good year, but even on a good team, he didn’t really get that many saves, and his numbers, while good, were worse than 2006.

Trevor Hoffman – 34 (Falkuhns)
2007 – 42 saves, 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
2006 – 46 saves, 2.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

Another great year, but not as great as 2006 in any category. The guy just looks so hittable.
It is a small sample, but the Bats traded like crazy and only finished 4th, Any 9 finished 6th and the Falkuhns were out of the money. I think it is connected.

Even though Peavy was great, he used up an awful lot of resources. Barry had a monster keeper list, so he may have felt he could afford Peavy (and Carlos Lee at $44), but he also ended up buying guys like Wade Miller, Adam Everett, Mike Lieberthal, Matt Lindstrom and Jeff Baker, in addition to over spending on Wes Helms (19) and Ryan Church (17).

One more thing about these pitchers – they didn’t stink. Sometimes they do, and when that happens to a player over $30, you can just kiss that season goodbye.

Tomorrow’s final installment: the other end of the spectrum.

Fantasy Royalty – The Over $40 Crowd

Second of the series.

At the 2007 BABI auction, 9 players went for $40 or more. No one keeps a history of this, but that has got to be a BABI record. I remember that in my first ever BABI auction, the 2 most expensive players (Reggie Sanders and Greg Maddux) went for $36.

Eight of the twelve teams purchased one player for over $40, and Cartel, in rebuilding mode, bought two. Here is the list of these players and their stats (HR/RBI/SB/BA), for both 2007 and 2006:

Albert Pujols – 59 (Cartel)
2007 -- 32/103/2/.327
2006 --49/137/7/.331

Big Al dropped in all 4 categories, and substantially in homers and RBI’s. He’s down to 2 steals. He had 16 in 2005.

Jose Reyes – 58 (Any 9)
2007 -- 12/57/78/.280
2006 --19/81/64/.300

Reyes is down in every category except stolen bases. Of course 78 steals from one player is a category winner, and Any 9 not only won steals by 8, they finished 39 steals ahead of the 3rd place team. I imagine, though, that Kenny 9 would have preferred those 2006 numbers. Reyes had 681 at bats, so the drop in BA has a huge effect.

Carlos Beltran – 47 (Cartel)
2007 – 33/112/23/.275
2006 – 38/116/18/.276

These are pretty comparable seasons with slightly less power, slightly more steals. His price may have been inflated because he just tore it up in the games before the auction.

Miguel Cabrera – 47 (Hobo)
2007 – 34/119/2/.320
2006 – 26/114/9/.339

The new American Leaguer had more power, but less steals and BA. The seasons are relatively equivalent.

Carlos Lee – 44 (Bats)
2007 – 32/119/10/.303
2006 – 37/116/19/.320

Lee was down in 3 categories including 9 fewer steals. He only increased in RBI’s, by 3.

Aramis Ramirez – 44 (Rips)
2007 – 26/101/0/.310
2006 – 38/119/2/.291

He was down substantially in the power categories and got no steals. His BA did climb. He spent some time on the DL in 2007, though he did get over 500 at bats.

Jimmy Rollins – 43 (Busch)
2007 – 30/94/41/.296
2006 – 25/83/36/.277

The MVP went up in all 4 categories. He was 28 years old, so he was primed for a career year. I admit in my preseason analysis, I said that he was overpriced at $43. Now he looks like the only likely keeper among this group. Interestingly, if Rollins had his 2006 stats instead of his new improved stats, Busch would have finished with exactly the same number of points.

Juan Pierre – 41 (Pounders)
2007 – 0/41/64/.293
2006 – 3/40/58/.292

It was my impression before looking at these stats that Pierre had declined from 2006, but the stats are almost the same. I imagine Kevin was happy to sacrifice the 3 homers for the extra 6 stolen bases. He’s probably more keepable than our Keeper Analysis intimated.

And finally, Derrek Lee – 40 (Pecklers). I discussed Derrek Lee in my previous post. His 2006 injury made comparisons difficult, though he certainly underachieved our expectations.

These 9 hitters are the cream of the crop, but who among them was really worth what was paid? Big Al was certainly not worth $59, a figure that expects 40+ homers and 120+ RBI’s in addition to several steals. The two Cubs, Ramirez and Derrek Lee, had nice enough seasons as well, but their relative lack of power and limited speed (make that no speed for Ramirez) suggest prices in the thirties.

Beltran and Carlos Lee both produced power and speed, though less power for both and less speed for Lee. Beltran went for $47, more than his numbers really suggest. And Lee went for $44, less than the $40 price tag he was thrown back with. It’s nice to have guys with power and speed, but these are truly premium prices paid.

Reyes and Pierre are the speed guys. At $59 Reyes needs to hit better. Those monster steal numbers put him into the 40’s, but to go into the 50’s, particularly the high 50’s, a player needs to bash too. Pierre at $41 probably earned what his owner had hoped, particularly given the premium we pay for speed.

That leaves Rollins, who had less power than Pujols, Beltran, Cabrera and C. Lee, but threw in 41 steals as well. That’s a package that’s worth the money, if you can count on it.

And that brings up the most important issue on paying in full for the top guys: their prices are inflated to represent the surety of performance. There is an insurance cost built into the prices of top guys. You can get more stats per buck out of less expensive guys, but in theory, ignoring injury risk, there is more risk of obtaining the predicted stats as you move down the food chain.

Look at Pujols: those numbers represent his worst season EVER! Those are still mighty tasty figures, probably worth high thirties. He provided decent power numbers and a BA that can carry a fantasy club. If that is the downside, that is worth a premium.

Even Derrek Lee, coming off his injury, had a pretty good season. It’s not what you hope for, but it wasn’t Andruw Jones at a buck less hitting .222. Generally, barring injuries, you’ll get decent stats from these guys.

Here’s an amazing statistic that skews the results: nobody on this list was seriously injured. Ramirez had the fewest plate appearances – 506 AB’s plus 43 BB’s for a total (excluding HBP, SAC and SF) of 549. The next lowest total was Carlos Beltran with 623. The three speed guys, Reyes, Rollins and Pierre were all over 700. One significant injury to any of these guys would demonstrate their true downside. The teams who bought these players were quite lucky, even if their stats weren’t quite what they hoped for.

One last thing to note: the Bums had none of these guys. In fact, they had no one in the thirties either. My theory about paying up for the big guys is that you will get good stats, but you will pay dearly for them. To put together a winning team, though, you need to have several guys outperform their price. That is pretty tough to accomplish when you pay over $40 or $50. Only Rollins did it in 2007.

Tomorrow: the $30+ players.

Fantasy Royalty

This is the first of a series of analyses of expensive fantasy players.

The Pecklers finished 5th last season, coming back from dead last in June thanks to our usual brilliant management. Could we have finished higher?

Unfortunately we made three major mistakes in the auction that doomed us from competing for second place. I say second, of course, because probably no matter what we did, we would not have beaten the Bums. Our mistakes: Derrek Lee at $40, Andruw Jones at $39 and Tom Gordon at $26.

Those 3 players cost 105 of our 280 budget. How did they do?

Lee – 22 HR, 82 RBI, 6 SB, .317 BA

Jones - 26 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB, .222 BA

Gordon – 3 W, 6 S, 4.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

That is certainly not $105 of production. What did we expect?

Lee was coming off a serious injury which ruined his 2006 season. We assumed he was healthy, but he came nowhere close to his career year in 2005: 46 HR, 107 RBI, 15 SB, .335 BA. We were not counting on those numbers coming off the injury, but we assumed something along the lines of 36/100/13/.310, plus upside. He didn't exactly suck, but other than batting average, he didn’t come close to any of those numbers.

Jones led the major leagues in 2005 in homers with 51, and followed it up with 41 HR, 129 RBI, 4 SB, .262 BA in 2006. We expected similar numbers for $39 in 2007. Both Lee and Jones are right smack in their prime years: Lee was 31 and Jones 30. Why shouldn’t they be worth what we paid, and maybe even be keepable in 2008?

As for Flash Gordon, he’s not exactly in his prime years. But in 2006 he put up a solid season worthy of closer money: 3 W, 34 S, 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. He hadn’t been injured since 2002, and his ERA from 2001-2006 was 3.11, his WHIP 1.195. Plus, he was on a good team. He certainly seemed safe enough.

Jones and Gordon became untradeable, and we were able to trade Lee, but only for an activated rookie with a broken wrist who might not make the team this year. And we had to throw in Cliff Floyd (for Tony Clark, which turned out good for us) and Carlos Villanueva for a bum. All three guys will be going for less money this year.

We were ruined. And given that our starting pitching was rotten (we kept John Patterson and Clay Hensley, and bought Mike Pelfrey, plus Wainright got off to a weak start and Webb didn’t hit his stride until the summer) and none of our closer hopefuls worked out (Rauch, Wood, Gonzalez, Meredith and Madson, who was supposed to be the insurance for Gordon), it’s a miracle we finished where we did. Those teams that we passed should be embarrassed, but I guess they must think it was our brilliant management.

They would be right.

Next: an analysis of the 2007 over-$40 crowd.

Happy New Year, Oedipus

Resolution #1 – An entry every day in 2008.

Resolution #2 – Don’t forget resolution #1.

Have you ever actually kept any resolution more than a week or two? This is undoubtedly the biggest sales week for Nutrisystems and 24 Hour Nautilus. Good luck to those of you starting your resolutions, including me.

Here is something you do NOT want to hear on New Years Day, or any other day for that matter:

Last night I cooked dinner for my wife and my mother. I bought a couple of double thick rib eye steaks – I love to BBQ double thick steaks, and get a good char on the outside. I then throw them in the oven until the inside gets to 125 F, and then let it rest. Rib eyes cause a lot of fire in the grill, but that gets that great fast char, while keeping it rare in the center. Don’t forget to let it rest, the longer the better.

Anyway, my butcher special cuts any double thick orders. He grabbed a prime rib roast out of the counter, and cut away the bones, then sliced my steaks. I told him to throw in 4 beef ribs, which are always fun to eat too. I threw those on the grill too, presumably for lunch today.

My mother took a little of everything on her plate, and took one of the ribs. She was dainty at first with it, cutting the meat on the sides with a knife, but she got in there with her hands by the end. This morning we were talking about the dinner, and she said:

“I love a good bone.”

Happy New Year. Excuse me while I tear my eyes out.