Penultimate Update

John Rodriguez left Friday's game in the first inning with a left shoulder injury.Rodriguez, who has been troubled by the shoulder all spring, was hurt while using his arms to brace himself against the wall down the left-field line and appeared to be in quite a lot of pain. If he needs to join Larry Bigbie on the DL to start the season, the Cardinals could reconsider sending down Chris Duncan.

This is a good guy for a buck or 2.

Pirates purchased the contract of infielder Jose Hernandez. Hernandez secured a job by hitting .295/.319/.409 in 44 at-bats this spring. He shouldn't have any fantasy value as the Pirates' sixth infielder.

Freddy Sanchez will get the starts that don't go to the regulars.

Cubs manager Dusty Baker suggested Thursday that he sees Mark Prior being "five, six weeks behind."Prior, who played catch again yesterday and had no problems, didn't think he was starting completely over after taking two weeks off with a strained muscle in his right shoulder. Baker seems to feel differently, so it looks like Prior has little chance of pitching in the majors during April.

Might be cheaper than you think.

Mariners returned LHP Luis Gonzalez, a Rule 5 pick, to the Dodgers.Gonzalez walked 12 while giving up 10 earned runs in 11 innings this spring. The Mariners are looking to avoid another last place finish this year, and that means not handicapping themselves with another Matt Thornton. It's likely that Jake Woods will claim the last spot in the bullpen.

You can’t have enough guys on your team named Luis Gonzalez.

The Pirates confirmed that Nate McLouth has won a spot on the team, but they're not naming him the starting center fielder.It appears that he'll play behind Chris Duffy initially. McLouth is the better hitter of the two, whereas Duffy has a substantial advantage when it comes to range in the outfield. Unless injuries open up additional playing time in the majors, we're guessing one of the two players will be back in Triple-A by mid-May. There's just not going to be enough at-bats available for both.

Might be cheaper than our infl number.

Zack Duke surrendered five more runs in five innings Friday to finish the spring with a 7.62 ERA.Duke should be fine given time, but it doesn't look like a very good April is on the way. He's been searching for his rhythm all spring long.

Scary. This season’s Noah Lowry? Or worse? Can’t spend $20 on this guy. We’d better review our max here. Maybe half that.

Aaron Miles went 2-for-3 with a double Friday to raise his spring average to .353.The extra-base hit was his second in 34 at-bats. With Junior Spivey still struggling mightily, Miles has a very good shot at being the Cardinals' second baseman on Opening Day. It remains likely that Spivey will win out in the end, but Miles might have a little early value in NL-only leagues

Decent $1 player.

Pedro Martinez pitched four innings and allowed three runs Friday in a loss to the Cardinals. Martinez wasn't particularly sharp, but he did work at 87-88 mph often enough, which was fairly encouraging considering how late of a start he got off to. Martinez is in line to start the third game of the season. It seems doubtful that the Mets would move him up to start game two as a result of Victor Zambrano's injury, though he would be going on four days' rest if it happened.

Not us. It should be interesting to see what he actually goes for.

Update by Pefacommish

Closer Handcuffs

These are the available closers, with their backups to get as protection:

1-Billy Wagner
a-Duaner Sanchez
b-Jorge Julio

2-Armando Benitez
a-Tim Worrell
b-Tyler Walker
c-Steve Kline
d-Merken Valdez

3-Jason Isringhausen
a-Braden Looper

4-Eric Gagne
a-Danny Baez
b-Brazhoban
c-Broxton

5-Tom Gordon
a-Arthur Rhodes
b-Julio Santana
c-Aaron Fultz

6-Ryan Dempster
a-Bobby Howry
b-Scott Williamson
c-Scott Eyre

7- Joe Borowski
a-Travis Bowyer eventually
b-Chris Resop
c-Todd Wellmeyer
d-Josh Johnson

8-David Weathers
a-Todd Coffey
b-Ryan Wagner
c-Kent Merker

Written by Dr. Tailgate

3/30 Daily Update

KLESKO/GONZALEZ:

The Padres are leaning toward placing Ryan Klesko on the disabled list for the first week or two of the season.

"There's a good possibility he may go on the disabled list," manager Bruce Bochy said. "We want him real close if not 100 percent. It's the best thing for him and the club. We feel like we can give him a little bit of time right now if he does start on the disabled list." Klesko's not going to be 100 percent without a time machine. His shoulder just isn't going to allow it. The Padres would certainly get better defense from Adrian Gonzalez at first base, and the offense production might be pretty similar. If Klesko decides to undergo surgery, it'd hardly be the end of the world.

THIS WILL RAISE GONZALEZ' VALUE

Juan Cruz

Juan Cruz pitched three hitless innings of relief Wednesday in his Diamondbacks debut.

The Diamondbacks would probably help themselves if they had Cruz replace Russ Ortiz in the rotation this very moment, not that there's any chance of it happening. Cruz struck out three and walked one today. He'll make the D'Backs as a middle reliever.

HE'S AN INTERESTING GUY, THOUGH STILL SCARY

RYAN WAGNER

According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Reds scouts suspect that Ryan Wagner might be available through a trade.

Some team needs to go get him. As things stand now, it appears that the Reds are leaning toward carrying Mike Burns over him on their Opening Day roster

SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE, HE COULD BE SENT TO MINORS. WOULD CHANGE THE PITCHING VALUES

JERRY HAIRSTON/TODD WALKER

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that manager Dusty Baker is leaning toward giving Jerry Hairston most of the playing time at second base.

Of course he is. Todd Walker was one of the best players on the team last season, but it looks like he might be limited to pinch-hitting duties. Until Hairston shows more speed than last year, he's not a great fantasy option

LOOKS LIKE HAIRSTON NEEDS TO BE RAISED IN VALUE AND TODD WALKER LOWERED

JOHN THOMSON

John Thomson (elbow) may begin the season on the disabled list.

So much for the Braves trading him. If Thomson is out Kyle Davies will replace him in the rotation. The Braves are still hoping Thomson can throw in a minor league game Sunday.

NO SURPRISE HERE, HIS VALUE NEEDS TO BE LOWERED

GAVIN FLOYD

Manager Charlie Manuel announced Thursday than Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson will have spots in Philadelphia's rotation.

Ryan Franklin will open the season in middle relief. A curveball that looks a lot more like it did two years has keyed Floyd's turnaround this spring and could make him a quality starter for the Phillies. He's not a bad choice in NL-only leagues

FLOYD PROBABLY WILL BE DRAFTED FOR $1-3.

Cheap Hitting

CHEAP HITTING

Corey Hart – has 10-10 or better potential. Had 17 HR – 31 SB in AAA
So Taguchi – went 8 HR-11 SB last year. Could do similar
Marlon Byrd – if gets AB’s could be 8-10 HR and SB
Shane Victorino – 5-8+ HR and SB potential
Kaz Matsui – has HR/SB potential, just never has lived up to it
Aaron Miles – in the running for playing time in MI in StLouis

CHEAP STEALS

Brandon Watson – could win the starting CF job. Has 10-20 SB potential
Hector Luna – will be utility, but lose AB’s to Spivey and Miles. Look for 10+ SB
Damien Jackson – routinely gets 10-15 SB
Endy Chavez – never lived up to potential, but still could get 10+ SB
Cesar Izturis - when healthy, needs AB’s, but is behind Nomar, Furcal, and Kent. Still has 10+ SB potential
Jeff Davanon – has always had speed with 10 SB potential in limited AB’s
Bernie Castro – another fast Wash guy, will back up Vidro
Eric Young – not young. Is fast, but has to play and stay healthy
Reggie Abercrombie – starting CF, unsure if can hit
Ellison - #5 OF, so won’t get many AB’s

CHEAP HR’s

Corey Hart – see above
Kelly Johnson – 10 HR, in Atlanta OF rotation
Mike Lamb – 10 HR potential
Adrian Gonzalez – 8-10 HR if gets AB’s, has potential for future
Jason Werth – 10-10 guy, more if healthy
Eli Marrero – Bave not as good, but can get 10 HR
Ricky Ledee – cheap HR’s
Rich Aurilia – behind Freel and Womack for AB’s
Ben Johnson – young guy in SD
Todd Linden - #6 OF, no AB’s if still in SF

Written by Dr. Tailgate

Cheap Pitching & COF Candidates

Recap of cheap relief and Closers of the Future

CLOSERS of the FUTURE

This is the list of guys who could easily vulture saves or the job this year

1 – Cincinatti Relief – Todd Coffey has the hype, but he or Ryan Wagner could either replace Weathers at any time.
2 – Oscar Villareal – he’s probably going to get the first shot at saves after Reitsma 24 yrs old. His #’s were good in 2003, but has had limited innings the past 2 years due to injuries, without good #’s in AAA or majors. I don’t see him as a real choice.
3 – Kerry Ligtenberg – With Bowyer sent down, he’s the backup for Borowski He was good in AAA after injuries last year, but ugly in 9 innings in majors. Was always solid until past 2 years. Could be decent if healthy.
4 – Braden Looper – Isringhausen is always hurt
5 – Brandon Lyon – He actually had crappy #’s, 6.44 ERA, 1.84 Whip. He’s kind of like Jose Mesa, who no one would want. But he is probably the next in line when Valverde gets hurt.
6- Tyler Walker – could be the guy again if Benitez is hurt (and he hasn’t pitched well). Though could also be Tim Worrell. His #’s weren’t good, but he did get 24 of 28 Saves, and he’s got real stuff. So, could have upside for the future, especially if Benitez was gone in 2007. He’d probably have the inside track on closing.

These are guys with established closers who could be a future closer

1 – Danny Baez - He was the closer in Tampa Bay, 41 SV, 72 inning, 51 K, 2.86 ERA, 1.33 Whip. He’ll be the back up if Gagne isn’t right, and has the track record. Will be a Free Agent after this year, so might be moving on. If he’s cheap or reasonable, he has a 50-50 chance of being a closer in NL in 2007.
2 – Blaine Boyer – 24 yr old, OK #’s last year 3.11, 1.30. Talk is about Devine, but he’s also in the mix
3 – Jose Capellan -He’s making the opening day roster. If Mark doesn’t activate him, then he’s an interesting future closer guy with 100 MPH fastball potential
4 - Chris Resop - If he makes the majors, it would be a stretch for him to be the closer as Bowyer is really the guy. He’s 23 yr old, was in AA – 24 of 26 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.29 Whip, 56 K in 49 inning, 96 MPH fastball. Probably goes to AAA, but could be a closer in future if Bowyer bombs.

CHEAP RELIEF WITH GOOD #’S

1- Brandon Medders 26 yrs old. He had solid #’s last year. 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 1.05 Whip, 31 SO’s. He has a 92-95 MPH fastball. He could be a good setup guy with #’s. But there are lots of guys here who could be a backup closer.
2 – Bob Howry He was given a chance as closer early in his career with the 1999-2000 White Sox, but didn’t really make it. As setup man past 2 years in Cleveland has been studly: 2004: 2.74, 1.15, 2005: 2.47, 0.89. Would be reasonable safe choice for #’s and would be the closer if Dempster was bad or out.
3 – Clay Hensley He was solid in AAA and in 47 innings in SD, which allowed SD to trade Otsuka and Hammond. In AAA (PCL – hitter’s league) 90 inning, 3.00, 0.94, 71 K. In Majors: 47 inning, 28 K, 1.70 ERA, 1.05 whip. Worth a $1 chance.
4 - Dan Wheeler He was very solid last year, 73 inning, 69 K, 2.21 ERA, 0.98 Whip. Good choice for safe innings, and could get the saves if Lidge was hurt or somehow traded
5 – Matt Wise He’s fully recovered now from Tommy John. Was solid last year in Milw, with 64 inning, 62 K, 3.36 ERA, 0.96 Whip, fairly safe, but no big upside.
6 - Duaner Sanchez He’s not going to close anymore, but could get wins in 7-8ths innings. #’s were same for 2004 and 2005 – 3.38.1.35 and 3.73, 1.35
7 – Salomon Torres Definitely keepable. He’s had solid years 2004 and 2005, since was pulled out of any starting spots. Should continue to have good #’s, and could get occasional right handed saves or if Gonzalez gets hurt
8 - Brad Thompson good setup/middle guy, but not a power pitcher. Had good #’s in first year in Majors last year
9 – Damaso Marte Actually the reverse. Had a bad year in 2005: 3.77, 1.72. He had been steady for the previous 3 years. No real upside, but would probably be a safe bet for good #’s
10 - Scott Eyre He was really good for Giants, but as a lefty won’t be a closer. He had just decent #’s. Doesn’t get wins either. 11 – Kent Merker 38 years old. Last 3 years ERA increasing 1.95 – 2.55 – 3.65 with Whips 1.41 – 1.25 – 1.35. Not a good trend.
12 – Jorge Julio He closed in Baltimore 2002 – 2005, but had bad #’s, and was replaced in 2005. Don’t expect any good #’s in a set up role either, as his best was 4.38 ERA and 1.40 Whip over past 3 years.
13 – Arthur Rhodes In 2005 he returned to the top level setup man form that he had in 2001 and 2002. He got hurt in 2004 when he was put in closer role in Oakland, but he’s not a closer. He’s a setup guy, and when he’s right, he’s a really good one
14 – Tim Worrell His #’s have steadily worsened since 2003 career year in SF. He’s 38, so this could be a real trend. Only upside is he’ll get the saves when Benitez is out hurt.
15 – Gary Majewski Good stuff, but has control and Whip problems. He’s #1 Setup after Ayala got hurt. ERA should be around 3.00, but Whip could be anything. Not big upside

Written by Dr. Tailgate

3/29 Daily Update

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright yielded two runs and seven hits in four innings Tuesday against the Rockies. Wright is going to be the Giants' fifth starter after outperfoming Brad Hennessey this spring. There shouldn't be many worse pitchers for fantasy purposes

He still sucks, let one of the Giant Homers buy him

Ryan Wagner

Ryan Wagner turned in two scoreless innings of relief against the Red Sox on Tuesday. Since allowing three runs in his first appearance of the spring, Wagner has yielded one run and four hits in 11 innings. He's still not assured of a place in Cincinnati's bullpen, but he's moving closer
He's still the most likely future closer here, worth bidding on at reasonable price

Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez homered and doubled to lead the Padres to a 7-6 win over the Angels on Tuesday. As long as Ryan Klesko's shoulder feels OK, it's expected that Gonzalez will begin the year in Triple-A. He's ready to start now, but the Padres will stick for Klesko until the veteran gives them reason not to

He's a risk, but how can they send him down??

Brandon Watson

Brandon Watson will split time with Marlon Byrd in center field for the Nationals after Ryan Church was sent down on Tuesday.

With almost no power and mediocre on-base skills, Watson is a long-term reserve at best. Since he'll bat leadoff and he's a quality basestealer, he should have some value in NL-only leaguers until the Nationals figure that out. Byrd will likely start in his place against lefties, which is the same thing he would have done had Church won the job

He's a good SB potential guy. And Byrd gets 1/3 of the AB's also

Claudio Vargas

After learning he'd be the Diamondbacks' fifth starter before he took the mound, Claudio Vargas limited the White Sox to one run and two hits over six innings Tuesday. He struck out five and walked two. Vargas has a 4.50 ERA and a 20/5 K/BB ratio in 20 innings, which is pretty good for Arizona. We don't recommend him in NL-only leagues, but he should be an adequate fifth starter for the D'Backs

He's not really what we want

Heilman/Brian Bannister

The Mets confirmed that Brian Bannister will open the season in the rotation and Aaron Heilman will pitch out of the bullpen. Bannister's stuff is below average, so he's going to have to keep hitters off balance, something he'll have an easier time doing his first time around the league. As a result, April and May could be his best months of the season. It's likely that he'll have some value in NL-only leagues initially. Heilman, who should often work a couple of innings at a time in front of Billy Wagner, is worth $4-$5 as a reliever. With both Heilman and Duaner Sanchez available to protect leads, Jorge Julio is going to enter a lot of games with the Mets down.

As he should. Bannister looks high risk. I don't get it. Heilman has done everything he can to be a starter, and this lowers his value some.

Eric Reed/Abercrombie

Eric Reed went 3-for-5 with two RBI and stole his sixth base today. With Josh Willingham set to spend time in the outfield and Reggie Abercrombie likely to start in center field, it wouldn't make any sense to keep Reed in the majors as a bench player. He's missed a lot of time due to injuries the last two years and needs to play regularly in Triple-A.

He'll need to be voted on. Abercrombie should be cheap though.

JD Closser and Jeff Baker

Rockies optioned C J.D. Closser and OF Jeff Baker to Triple-A Colorado Springs; reassigned RHP Jose Acevedo, RHP Miguel Asencio, 1B Carlos Rivera and 3B Ian Stewart to minor league camp. The Rockies wouldn't even carry Closser if Yorvit Torrealba needed to go on the DL. They maintain he needs to play regularly in Triple-A, though since he's 26, there's not much left for him to learn in the minors. Asencio and Acevedo should both see considerable time in the majors with the Rockies this season. Stewart, despite his impressive spring, is at least a year away

This means Ardoin is the catcher and Omar Quintanella and Jamey Carroll are the reserve infielders

Adam Wainwright

Adam Wainwright is reportedly likely to make the Cardinals' Opening Day roster out of the bullpen. Wainwright lost out on the battle to be St. Louis' fifth starter, but working him into the majors as a reliever is a good idea anyway

He's got stuff, and could be a future guy at cheap price

Jose Capellan

General manager Doug Melvin indicated Tuesday that Jose Capellan will make the Brewers' Opening Day roster. He'll pitch out of the bullpen, likely in middle relief initially.

Capellan has future closing potential, depending on what Milwaukee does with Derrick Turnbow long term. He's probably the #2 closer on this team with future upside

Dewan Brazelton

The former 1st rd pick of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays has flown under the radar this spring but has seemed to harness the stuff that warranted his top prospect status. Now with Padres, Brazelton has only allowed 2 ER in 15 1/3 innings this spring while striking out 15 and walking only 4. Brazelton moves from a situation with high expectations as a signing bonus baby in Tampa, to relative obscurity making the league minimum in San Diego. His regained form in spring along with the spacious confines of Petco Park as his home stadium put Brazelton as a potential deep sleeper. Brazelton’s situation mirrors that of John Patterson who struggled living up to the top prospect label in Arizona, but flourished with a move to a new club with a spacious home ball park. Brazelton only warrants consideration in deep leagues, but is someone to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

He's another high upside potential guy

Ryan Madson

Madson was very impressive on Tuesday night, shutting down the Yankees in 6 plus innings. Madson gave up 4 hits and walked 1, while striking out 3 and shutting out the Yankees through 6 1/3 innings. Madson had been very strong for a year and a half in the Phillies bullpen before fading in the 2nd half last year. Madson has been given the opportunity to earn a starting spot in the rotation this spring and has been extremely impressive. In 19 IP, he’s struck out 14, walked 4, and only given up 4 earned runs. His competition for the rotation has also been very strong with Gavin Floyd regaining top prospect form and Ryan Franklin pitching solidly as well. The Phillies may believe it’s a better option to move Madson to the bullpen, which appears to be thin, but it would be difficult to keep an arm the quality of Madson’s out of the rotation

He's pitching well and looking like could be good. But, it's still only Spring Training

Update by Dr. Tailgate

3/28 Daily Update

Ryan Klesko/Adrian Gonzalez

Padres sent first baseman Walter Young outright to Triple-A Portland.

And

PER FANTISTICS: According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, "First baseman Ryan Klesko, encouraged by the results of a cortisone shot for his left shoulder, said he expects to return to the lineup today and should be ready for the start of the season. ... Klesko, who is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, said if the pain worsens, he could have surgery that could sideline him 4-6 months. But Klesko said he's determined to have a fun, productive season – even if his home run power is compromised. ... Bochy said Klesko's ailment increases the chances that reserve first baseman Adrian Gonzalez will make the team. The Padres still must trim eight players from the roster by Opening Day."

Young was the only other 1B backup, so looks like Gonzalez will stay up??

Matsui/Anderson Hernandez

The Newark Star-Ledger reports that "Randolph confirmed the obvious when he said that Matsui, who has missed the past two weeks with a knee sprain, will open the season on the 15-day disabled list."

Hernandez should be the starting 2B in NY, could keep the job, but he probably isn’t a good enough hitter to own.

Danny Ardoin

Yorvit Torrealba’s shoulder issues will likely make Danny Ardoin the Rockies’ primary catcher early on, but it should be a temporary arrangement.

Ardoin should be an interesting end game catcher Eli Marrero/Shealy Since Ryan Shealy is Triple-A bound, Eli Marrero figures to be the usual right fielder against left-handers. When he eventually becomes catcher eligible, he’s going to be handy to have around in NL-only leagues.
I’m not convince Eli can hit anymore, but if he does play catcher, he’d be an interesting pickup

Jerry Hairston

If the Cubs follow through with their old plan to dump Todd Walker, Jerry Hairston Jr. could be one of the NL’s better bargains. He’d likely hit second in the lineup, which might help him get back to 25 steals

He’ll probably get bid up like last year, but Haiston is still an interesting player. We probably need to increase his Inflated value and lower Walker

JD Drew

I was concerned about whether J.D. Drew’s power would come back right away, so it’s encouraging that he has managed to slug .613 while returning from wrist and shoulder injuries this spring. …

Looks like JD is back for now and he may not get much love from the other bidders

So Taguchi

The stress fracture in Larry Bigbie’s left foot will likely make Taguchi the Cardinals’ Opening Day left fielder. Bigbie didn’t make much of an impression before getting hurt, so he’ll probably have quite a bit of trouble breaking into the lineup after returning in mid- to late April.

Where was So when we needed him 2 years ago? He’s going to get some AB’s.

Nationals OF

National CF the Nationals only have to settle on a center fielder. GM Jim Bowden seems to prefer Ryan Church, whereas Frank Robinson is intrigued by having a pure leadoff hitter in Brandon Watson. A Church/Marlon Byrd platoon would be quite a bit more productive than Watson, though it wouldn’t quite measure up defensively.

Brandon Watson has speed and would be a reasonable low cost option/risk

Craig Wilson

The latest rumor has Craig Wilson being traded to the Braves for John Thomson. Rarely has a team been so interested in trading one of their best players at any cost. "At this point, I'm really not going to worry about it," Wilson said. "The only thing I can do is go out and hit the ball and catch the ball and throw the ball. If something happens, it happens. I'll pack up and go.

He could be cheap now that Greg sent him back to draft

Mock Drafts

With $200+ to spend and lots of positions, there are lots of ways to go. We've penciled out multiple possible senarios. Here's some to explore.

Currently, Travis Bowyer now in AAA and not available as closer of future, and Devine was kept. Shealy likely going to minors, but Adrian Gonzalez our other interesting cheap 1B is up, but unknown if staying.

1) No big time hitters (Pujols, Beltran, Lee), but can spend on corners
C - BARRETT 3
C - Greene/Fick/Ardoin 2
1B - Niekdro 12
2B - COL. GONZALEZ 1
SS - FURCAL 30
3B - Rolen 30 MI - Luna 4
CI - Zimmerman 18
OF - Lots of guys 24
OF - JD Drew/Other Gonzalez 22
OF - Finley 15
OF - Damian Jackson 4
OF - 7
UT - 3
UT - 2

Hitters 177

SP - WEBB 14
SP - SEO 5
SP - Duke/Odalis Perez 19
SP - Bush 6
SP/RP - Sosa/Maholm 5
RP - 1
RP - 2
RP - Looper 7
RP - Baez 14
Closer - Any/Gordon 30

Pitchers 102

2) With Big Al Pujols

C - BARRETT 3
C - Greene/Fick/Ardoin 2
1B - Niekro 12
2B - COL. GONZALEZ 1
SS - FURCAL 30
3B - Zimmerman 18
MI - Luna 4
CI - Ad Gonzalez/Sweeney 5
OF - Lots of guys 18
OF - JD Drew/Other Gonzalez 22
OF - Finley 15
OF - Damian Jackson 4
OF - 3
UT - 2
UT - 1

Hitters 181

SP - WEBB 14
SP - SEO 5
SP - Odalis Perez 17
SP - Bush 6
SP/RP - Sosa/Maholm 5
RP - 1
RP - 2
RP - 5
RP - Baez 14
Closer - Any/Gordon 30

Pitchers 99

3) With Carlos Lee and Rolen

C - BARRETT 3
C - Greene/Fick/Ardoin 2
1B - Niekro 12
2B - COL. GONZALEZ 1
SS - FURCAL 30 3B - Rolen 30
MI - Luna 4
CI - Castilla 10
OF - Carlos Lee 38
OF - JD Drew/Other Gonzalez 22
OF - Finley 15 OF - Damian Jackson 4
OF - 4
UT - 2
UT - 1

Hitters 179

SP - WEBB 14
SP - SEO 5
SP - Duke/Odalis Perez 19
SP - Bush 6
SP/RP - Sosa/Maholm 5
RP - 1
RP - 2
RP - 6
RP - Baez 14
Closer - Any/Gordon 30

Pitchers 101

We could possibly get Zimmerman if he's 17-18 instead of Castilla with Perez, less for $6 reliever, and depending on whether we get Baez or Gordon. We could also drop the 5th starter to a $1-2 reliever

Written by Dr. Tailgate

Getting Started with Starters

This was done 3/15, long before keepers done.

Well here’s the list of starters. Well, I can now see why Mark wanted Oswalt and Smoltz, as there’s not much at the top. We should have tried to trade him Pedro.

Top Tier #1 Starters – Not much at the top available. We’ll have to remember that Peavy, Sheets, Zambrano will be in draft 2007, maybe with overpriced Pedro and Prior.

Pedro Martinez Peck 30/07 – AVAILABLE
Pretty studly #’s, even with the slide he had down the stretch with his toe injury: 15-8, 2.82 ERA, 0.95 Whip. Toe still could be a problem and he won’t go for much if any more. Unless guys overvalue the Mets hitting or chase him as the top pitcher available. Probably will go around $30 again.

Mark Prior – AVAILABLE
He’s a star when healthy. But, he’s already hurt with shoulder pain and may not start the season in Chicago. He was injured for part of 2005, still got 166 innings, 11 wins, 3.67, 1.21. He was healthy star in 2003. But, hurt 2004 and 2002. He’s a big risk. Interesting at $15-18, but not worth it at $22+ where he’ll likely go on name alone

Chris Carpenter Hobo 1/06 – EXTEND to 6/07C, maybe 11/08C
Hard to extend any starter more then 1 year, but Cy Carpenter could be the exception. Just getting better every year and on a great team.

Roy Oswalt Rips 31/07 – KEEPER, full price
a star, true #1 starter. Got to keep a guy you trade a $2 hitter with 20-20 potential

Jake Peavy Bums 15/06C – KEEPER
I saw him pitch 2 years ago against Giants and here was this scrawny little guy getting beat up and he didn’t look like anything. True that’s when the Giants knew how to hit. Man was I wrong, this guys a stud. How does he have only 12 wins, with 2.93/1.031 #’s, but I guess Clemens is asking the same. A stopper for this team

Ben Sheets Busch 17/06C – KEEPER
When not hurt last year, he pitched great. 10 wins, 3.33, 1.07 in 156 innings. Jeff’s not going to buy him out

John Smoltz Rips 20/07 – KEEPER
we were all scared by his opening start and injury fear. 14 wins, 2.95, 1.135

Carlos Zambrano Pounders 8/06C – KEEPER
3rd great year, and Whip has improved to .115, with 14 Wins and 3.26 ERA and 200 K’s is a true #1 pitcher

2ND TIER

Tim Hudson Bats 33/07 - AVAILABLE
Was OK, but not worth 33. He had 14 Wins, 3.52, 1.35 aren’t earth shattering for that price. Still will go around $25-28.

Jason Schmidt - AVAILABLE
He was hurt to start last year and never quite got his 95+ MPH fastball then. If it’s back, he could go back to his previous 2 year SF #’s with ERA 3.2 or less, and 1.08 Ratio. He could easily stay similar to 2005: 4.40, 1.42. Likely, he’ll be in the middle 4.0, 1.25 with 15 wins. Worth $15, but will go $20-25.

Mark Mulder Pounders 26/07 – PROBABLY AVAILABLE
turned out to be the ex-A’s pitcher to have, 16 Wins, 205 inning, 3.64, 1.38 and he’s on best team in NL, so should do as well.

Dontrell Willis Falkuhns 14/07 – KEEPER
A star for years to come. Probably won’t match last year’s #’s, he was bad down the stretch, but still 3.3, 1.25 could be reached.

Andy Pettitte Cappers 16/07 – KEEPER
I didn’t like his Ratio history and Injury History. Man he was great. 15 wins, 2.48, 1.056. A steal. Probably will go back to 3.5, 1.25 #’s.

Brandon Webb PECK 14/07 – KEEPER
solid #’s, 14-12, 229 IP, 3.54 – 1.26. Got to keep him, though I can’t say I like the Diamondbacks hitting or defense behind him

3RD TIER

Zach Duke – AVAILABLE
Wow, what a start as a rookie. 8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 Whip in 84 inning, 14 starts. #’s were also good in 108 innings, 16 starts in AAA: 2.92, 1.21. He looks for real, but don’t expect the same wins with Pitt in a full season, but ERA and whip could be sub 3.00 and 1.2. Worth $15-20

Kerry Wood – AVAILABLE
He’s 28 going on 33 years old. He was a star when healthy until 2003. Had 140 innings in 2004 and only 66 innings in 2005. He had knee surgery last month, so he’s probably not back until May. He’s already pitching now. He could easily get 3.5, 1.2 #’s, but in how many innings. There’s also talk he could be a closer in the future to minimize his innings, and he has closer stuff. He could be any price, depending on fear of his injury. He could be $12-15 or bid up to $20. Interesting at the lower range.

Derek Lowe Busch 13/07 – PROBABLE KEEPER
Not a stud, but solid year. 222 innings, 3.61, 1.25, 12 wins. And LA will be better, both offense and in bullpen

Aaron Harang Busch 1/06 – KEEPER
Hard to complain about 211 innings, 11 wins, 3.83, 1.27 in Cinci. Jeff likes him, but I don’t see him being extended

Brad Penny Bums 15/07 – PROBABLE KEEPER
has pitched solidly since return from DL, but LA just doesn’t get wins for him. Still worth his $$

4TH TIER

Chris Young - AVAILABLE
He’s 26, and was in Texas, which is a big time hitter’s park. He was 12-7, 31 starts, 165 innings, 137 K, 4.26, 1.26. He’s now in a pitcher’s park in SD. This should lower his ERA to sub 4.0, possibly to 3.5-3.7 with Whip around 1.2. He could be $8 on last years #’s or $15 on youth and hype. I like him and could be good value under $15.

Roger Clemens – Won’t be available for draft.Not going to be on an opening day roster, so not worth drafting and having to throw him back.

John Lieber Bats 14/07 – BORDERLINE KEEPER
He had 17 wins, 218 inning, 4.20, 1.21 #’s in Phili. He was better after All Star Game, with 3.28, 1.03 #’s. At $14 he’s certainly keepable, with potential to have sub 4.0 ERA and 1.2 #’s. If returns, will go for the same $12-15.

Doug Davis Lickers 12/07 – SHOULD BE KEEPER
Worth every penny, 11 wins, 222 innings, 208 K, 3.84, 1.30 are all solid #’s for the price. And the Lickers don’t have much else to keep

John Patterson Hobo 2/07 – KEEPER
Too many of us have owned him in the past to like him at the draft, but he’s finally showed he did really have major league stuff: 2.74/1.19, we’ll see if it’s real. He’s certainly cheap

Noah Lowry Pounders 11/07 – KEEPER
a tale of 2 half-seasons. ERA 5.07 in 1st half, then ended up with 13 wins and 3.78 ERA for season. August was 5-0 with 0.69 ERA. Unbelievable.

Brett Myers Cappers 2/07 - KEEPER
George was mad he didn’t take Ohka at draft instead of him, but 12 Wins, 3.63/1.222 later, he had a bargain.

Matt Morris Rip 10/07 - KEEPER
Now in SF. He had a great recovery year. SF is good, but not as good as StLouis. Still should be keeper.

5TH TIER

John Thomson Pounders 15/07 - PROBABLY AVAILABLE
He had a breakout year in 2004, with 3.72, 1.32, which drove him to $15 price. He started out 3-2 with 3.42 last year, then tore a finger tendon and never returned to form. 99 inning, 4.47, 1.41. Career #’s were in Colorado and Texas, so you can’t really use them, but were 4.65, 1.3. So to expect 3.72, 1.32 in an uninjured Atlanta season, isn’t unrealistic. His price will drop though to $8-10. He’d be interesting at that price, but not at $13-15.

Odalis Perez Any9 20/07 - AVAILABLE
He was hurt last year and never did return to form. So, value should drop after 7 Wins, 4.56, 1.26 year. His career has been up and down every other year with ERA 3.25 or 4.5, but Whip is 1.25 or less. LA should be good team, so if healthy he could have 15 wins, sub 4.0 and 1.2 #. Could drop to $12-15 or less, and would be good risk at that price.

Tom Glavine Rip 10/06 - BORDERLINE KEEPER
He’s old guy, but had solid year in NY. Should have better wins and bullpen protection after all the pickups by the Mets. He’s not really tradable unless he’s super hot, so he’s better for a team with good keeper list. Not for a team with nothing, as he could be good, but no upside.

Livan Hernandez Licker 9/07 - BORDERLINE KEEPER
He keeps surprising us, sometimes good and others bad. He says he’s 31 years old, give or take 10 years. Still he was 15 Wins, 246 Innings, 3.98 ERA last year, but 1.43 Whip is a killer. Lickers don’t have much, so he’s easily keepable at $9, but unless Whip is better and he can get 15 wins again, he could hurt more then help. I’d pass unless cheaper if he’s returned to draft.

Jason Marquis Licker 13/07 - BORDERLINE KEEPER
He’s 27, an inning eater on great team, but #’s dropped to 4.13 and 1.33 in 207 innings. He’s a free agent after the season, so long term, likely elsewhere, with Anthony Reyes poised to take his spot. Would go for same, not worth more.

Jeff Suppan
Being in St.Louis has been perfect for him, with 16 wins x 2 years. He had a career year for ERA last year with 3.57, and was 4.16 and 4.19 the previous 2 years (also his best at the time). His Whip is 1.38 (consistent past 5 years). Expect him to be 15 wins, 4.00 ERA, 1.38 Whip this year. He’d probably be $3-5 elsewhere, but in St. Louis he’ll get the wins to drive him up to $7-10. The #’s probably aren’t worth that price, only the wins. Would be solid in the $5-8 range.

Jae Weong Seo Peck 5/07X – Borderline Keeper
Now the #5 starter for Dodgers. Nice stats: 8-2, 2.59 ERA, 1.11 Whip. LA is good pitcher park. Lineup should be good behind him also for runs and bullpen. As a #5, his price will be down, but price could go up to $5-7, just due to his #’s last year. He’s definitely of interest at that price, especially if ends up at $3-5.

Chris Capuano Hobo 9/07 – KEEPER
Went full price at the time, but easily paid for himself. 16 wins on Milwaukee with 3.6 ERA, are solid, though 1.32 Ratio isn’t studly. Still solid keeper with great stuff.

Oliver Perez Busch 3/06 – KEEPER
A true bust last year with his shoulder problems. Could be kept on potential and his 2004 stats, as he’s cheap with upside. If returns to draft, could drop to $5-8, but 2004 #’s could raise him to $12. He’d be worth the low spot, not the risk at the upper price.

Matt Cain Bats 5/07F – KEEPER
He’s a future star, but rookie years are always a crap shoot. Still worth the gamble, especially with Barry back

6TH TIER

Greg Maddux Busch 16/07 – AVAILABLE
His #’s have been worse past 3 yeas from his career, but 4.24, 1.22 last year isn’t terrible. He should easily keep around the same # or better, 4.05, 1.20, 15 wins. Worth $7-10, not more for a 39 year old, near the end of his career.

Jorge Sosa
He was terrible in Tampa Bay, but he shined under Leo Mazzone last year (but Leo is gone). He’ll be the #3 or #4 starter in Atlanta. He was 2.55, 1.39 last year, all killing his previous best #’s. You can’t expect a 2.55 ERA again, but 3.5, 1.39 with 15 wins would certainly be doable, but so could a reverting to 4.6, 1.5 #’s. He’ll go for $8-12 on last year’s #’s, but would be worth the rist at the lower end, probably not the upper end of the value.

Orlando Hernandez
He was probably the worst of the White Sox pitchers last year at 5.12, 1.46 in 128 innings, both career worst. He was much better in 2002 and 2004 with NY Yankees, but hurt in 2003. I don’t see Arizona as a great team, so can’t expect more then 10-12 wins with 4.0-4.2 ERA, 1.25+ Whip would be his upside, and he could really have a downside. Worth around $5-6 if upside reached, really more of a $3-5 guy. Remember he’s 36 + years old.

David Bush Milw
He was traded from Toronto for Lyle Overbay. He’s like Oliver Perez and Willis who had big rookie years, then slumped, so has the talent to be good. In 2004, he had 16 starts, 98 innings, 3.69 ERA, 1.23 Whip. He slumped in 2005 some. In 10 starts early, he got beat up by Red Sox 3 times enroute to 4.89 ERA, but was 3.40 without the 3 Boston games and went back to AAA. After All Star Game, he was 5-6, 4.23, 1.23. Milwaukee is a bad park, but Sheets, Davis, and Capuano have all done well recently. Bush could be #5 or #6 starter, but hard to believe he won’t beat out Helling. He could be a break out guy with sub 4.0 ERA, 1.25 Whip. He’ll be $1-5, depending on whether declared starter or not. Has upside.

Miguel Batista
He’s 35, and back in Arizona where he had his best years 2001-2003. he was bad in Toronto and was changed to a closer last year with ugly #’s. The time of him having sub 4 ERA is likely gone. A good year would be 9-10 wins, 4.2 ERA, 1.35 whip. He’s a $2-3 guy, who could be $1 or $5.

Brett Tomko Lickers 10/07
His only sub 4.0 ERA was in 1997 and sub 1.33 whip was 1997 and 98. He’ll be helped being in LA, so could get 10-12 wins, 4.2 ERA, 1.35 Whip, better would unrealistic. He’s a $2-4 player, on someone else’s team.

Woody Williams Bums 7/07 – PROBABLE AVAILABLE
He’s 39, and looking it, with ERA and Whip each climbing every year for past 4 years. Even bad in SD pitcher’s park. He was studly in 2002 if only 102 innings. Otherwise 4.5 ERA, 1.3+ Whip is as good as could hope, and could be much worse. Not worth chasing. He could be $1-3 based on stats or $5-7 based on name

Jerome Williams
After being traded to Chicago, he went 6-8, 3.91, and he’s only 24. The key will be how much he starts. Prior and Wood are hurt, Wade Miller is hurt. So, he’ll likely start out in the rotation, but could be dropped at any time. If he got 25-30 starts, he has the talent to get 10-15 wins, 3.8-4.2 ERA, 1.29 whip. He’ll only go $2-5, and could be only $1-2. He’s an interesting risk

Horacio Ramirez
He looked great in his 60 innings in 2004. In 2003 and 2005 with 29 and 32 starts, he did get 11 and 12 wins, but ERA was 4.00/4.63, and 1.29 Whip both. He’ll be #5 starter, would be lucky to be 4.2, 1.39 with 10 wins. Not worth the #’s for the wins. Will go $2-5.

Tomo Ohka Bats 1/07 – Could be Kept due to $1 only
He either gets low 3.3-3.4 or 4-4.2 ERA’s, and 1.39 Whip. That was in good parks, which Milwaukee isn’t. Expect him to be worse then last year, so 4.2+, 1.39, 8-10 wins. He’ll be $1-2. I’d rather take a chance on David Bush.

Brandon Claussen Bums 1/07 – Doubt makes Bums cut
It’s hard to like anyone pitching in Cinci, and his #’s are below average, for season 4.11/1.37, but was better after all star game. So, could be worth the $1 for a team without enough keepers. Will be $1 again. There's some talk about him being a closer in the future

Anthony Reyes Pounders Farm – Keeper, he’s a Cardinal
He’s losing the starting job now to Sir Sidney Ponson, but he is a star in the making. If he’s in AAA or declared he’s a starter, he’ll be a Pounder. But, does Kevin keep him if he’s in the bullpen? If thrown back, he’s got huge future upside. He’ll eventually replace Marquis or Suppan (both in last year of contract) or Sir Sid (who sucks). If returns to draft, will be $3-5 on potential.

The Rest of the Pack

Sir Sidney Ponson (aka: Sir Drinkalot)
He’s in St. Louis, which helps. But he was ugly since the Giants playoffs in 2003. He’ll be better, but let someone else pay the $2-3. He looks like he’d fit on the 300 Pounders: Both for his weight and he’s a Cardinal

Paul Maholm Pitt
He broke his orbit in 2004, but looked good in Minors and Majors last year. He came up in August, 6 starts, 41 innings, 2.18 ERA, 1.16 Whip, 26 K. In minors AA/AAA, he was 3.35, 1.3 guy. Has the potential to be good, 3.8-4.1, 1.3 and will be only $2-4. Might be a guy to risk on.

Jason Vargas Bat 7/07X
He tore up the minorsA/AA, then came up to Florida and in 74 innings, 59 K, 4.03, 1.38. He should be better as he learns, but it’s on the job training on a bad team. He could be a future star, but not likely this year. Will be $2-3 with upside and downside risks

Steve Trachsel
He was out last year with injury. He was pretty good 2002-2004: ERA’s 3.38, 3.78, 4.00 (all increased, but still good), but Whip’s were 1.38,1.31, 1.41. He’ll be cheap, so could be worth the $1-3.

Wade Miller CHC
He’s been hurt for 2 years, getting 88 and 92 innings past 2 years. If he could be healthy, he’d be an interesting risk at cheap price. He was really good in Houston from 2001-2004 when healthy. Could be only $1

Ryan Madson
Looked like closer of future, but now he’s #3 starter. He could be sub 4.0 and 1.2, but we have no real track record to go from. He’s been hyped as a $6-8 guy. We’ll see

Kyle Davies Rip 5/07F
Currently #6 Atlanta starter. Will be good in future, but probably starts in the bullpen

Aaron Heilman Doyle 5/07X - AVAILABLE
He could be the Mets #5 starter and was really good last year in relief and starting. He was a star in 2nd half: 0.68 ERA, 45 K in 40 innings. Those are certainly #’s worth taking a risk on, with a young guy, with good stuff and upside. $3-6.

Brandon Backe Lickers 2/07
He didn’t show the stuff he had in 2004 playoffs. He’s only a $1-2 player at best.

Cory Lidle
When your #’s improved the last 3 years, and still you’re at 4.53/1.35, that’s not a guy you want. $0-1.

Victor Zambrano
The wrong Zambrano, will get 12 wins, 4.3, 1.48 or worse #’s

Pedro Astacio and Ramon Ortiz Hobo 5/07X - Wash
Pedro’s #’s have sucked since 1996 and Ramon was only good in 2002, no reason to expect anything better.

Eric Milton
He was terrible last year, but he’s not better then a 4.7, 1.35 pitcher anyway, so don’t even think of it

Sergio Mitre, Brian Moehler - Fla
They’ll be ugly in Florida this year

Shawn Estes
Why do teams keep starting him? He’s not been sub 4.0 or sub 1.43 since 1997, and mostly around 4.8-5.8 and 1.6. Just say no.

Glendon Rusch
A fill-in starter, long reliever. Not worth the $1 as not much upside

Tony Armas Jr Cappers 2/07
Another National getting worse yearly

Brian Lawrence
Out for the year with shoulder problems

Jose Lima
Just say no

Russ Ortiz
Dusty should have left him the playoff game and we’d be world champs. As for 2006, he’s getting worse by the year, no reason to expect a reversal of fortune

Kip Wells
Had a blood clot removed, so will be out up to 2 months. He was really bad in 2004-2005 after career years in 2002-2003.

Mike Hampton Bums 3/07
When healthy he’s been like the Hampton pre-Colorado. But, can he stay healthy. At $3, he’s a safe play.

Brad Hennessey
His #’s sucked. One of the Giant Homers might try him at $1, but why?

Robinson Tejeda
He looked good down the stretch last year. He could be #5 starter or middle relief. He’d be worthy of $1 shot.

Justin Nippert Ariz
Likely going to AAA, but was solid in AA, and could make the majors this year with big future upside

Written by Dr. Tailgate

Turning the Corner

As we discussed, the key to this year’s draft is getting relative bargains. But, the position of scarcity is CORNER infield. I hate to agree with Larry.net but he is correct . So, here are the corners. Instead of looking at it by position 1B/3B. Let’s group them by money. As what we really have is money slots and we’ll just fill in players.

The list we printed is similar to "Around the Corner" so I'm not going to repeat it here.

Written by Dr. Tailgate

Looking for a 3rd Draft Pick

We'd like another draft pick this year. If there is a team with 2 sure keepers in their draft, we could offer them a player for their pick, which is useless. Hopefully we swap our 1st round for their higher 1st round and their 2nd round.

The Bait - Andruw Jones

300 Pounders:
Has 2 players, either could make majors or go to farm again. So, might have to use only 1 pick.
1) Anthony Reyes StL Pitcher – he’s #6 starter now, will eventually be a starter. Could start season in the farm or the bullpen
2) Dave Krynzel Mil OF – big potential hurt by injury last year. Probably starts season in farm

Falkuhns:
Has 4 players, but 2 will be in majors
1) Prince Fielder – will be in Milwaukee 1B
2) Jeremy Hermida – will be in Florida OF 3
) Michael Bourn Phi OF – He was disappointing last year. Could be kept or returned to farm draft
4) Felix Pie CHC OF – He’s probably ready, but will be back in the farm

ANY 9:
3 players, but questionable keepers

1) Merkin Valdez SF P – will be in farm and kept
2) Brian Dopirak CHC 1B – he has been dropping in value. Could be put back into farm draft
3) Josh Anderson Hou OF – low level value player. Probably returned to draft

BATS:
2 players, neither huge keepers

1) Angel Guzman CHC P – He’s OK, will be kept. Will be back in the farm this year
2) Fred Lewis SF OF – He’s probably not a true keeper. But, he’s a Giant, so Barry will keep him.

BUMS:
3 players, only 1 is really a keeper

1) Lastings Milledge NYM OF – He’s still on the fast track to stardom. Will be in the farm this year
2) Norihiro Nakamura LA 3B – he didn’t make it up last year, no reason to think he can this year. Look for him to be returned to the farm draft list
3) Nate Schierholtz SF 3B – He’s a Giant, so Doug has to keep him. Though, he’s probably not of high enough value

Busch:
2 players, could keep 1 or 2

1) Yusmeiro Petit NYM P – big power. He’s a keeper, will be in the farm
2) James Loney LA 1B – He never has lived up to the hype. Probably goes back into the farm draft

Cappers:
3 players, but only 1 will return to his farm list

1) Edwin Encarnacion – he’ll be starting 3B for Cinci
2) Ian Stewart Col 3B – he’ll be in the farm this year and Colorado soon enough, a sure keeper
3) Freddy Guzman SD OF – he should have dropped him last year then he got hurt. He’ll be dropped for someone new this year

DOYLE:
3 players, 2 will be in majors, maybe all 3

1) Dioner Navarro LA C – starter in LA
2) Josh Barfield SD 2B – will make SD
3) Cole Hamels Phi P – probably back in farm, but could make majors

HOBO:
4 players, interesting choices
1) Carlos Quentin Ariz OF – star, will be in farm this year, a keeper
2) Adam Wainwright Atl P – he’s decent, could be kept or sent back to farm draft
3) Brad Nelson Mil 1B – he’ll return to farm draft
4) Joey Votto Cin 1B – no star, could be kept, probably back to draft

Lickers:
2 players, but Reed will be in majors
1) Eric Reed – starting OF for Florida
2) Chad Billingsley – will be kept, back in farm

PECK:
1 player for us
1) Chris Nelson SS Col – keeper, could drop if we got something better

RIPS:
2 players, 1 in majors

1) Conor Jackson – will be 1B in Arizona
2) Jose Capellan Mil P – could make the bullpen in Milwaukee or back to farm

Best shot -- HOBO. They probably don't need a second draft pick. I'm going to offer them Andruw Jones.

The Inside Scoop

Larry was in today. Not Dot Net, the other Larry.

He's pretty haggard looking with all the Barry to do. We showed him his picture with Petey in the Examiner today looking, well...looking pretty much like he did in my office.

I showed him my blog and my writeup of the game with Canoodler and Yamid Haad. He said he too, like the Doc, has haad it with Haad. He also said that although he is from Columbia, his ancestry is Lebonese, so the Colonel is probably right...he's a potential terrorist. Anyway, he said Haad is history. Canoodler is going down too, for Todd Greene.

Anyway, you guys won't see this until after the draft, and won't see it at all unless you drill down to here. But I got one fantasy useful piece of information. Steve Finley. He's in great shape, and he really is looking good. And the Giants expect him to get over 400 AB's. With his numbers last year, he can't be too expensive. Larry said last year he played through an injury that affected him all season. He finished strong, but it won't be very obvious. I say we buy him, no questions asked, whatever it takes. If we're wrong, we'll blame Larry, and he'll owe us. Life is good.

Oswalt for Hall

Trade from Busch to Rips. Team Outlook changes:

BUSCH LEAGUERS:

Billy Hall was good keeper to pick up. He gives HR and SB for $2, or extended to $7. He even gets a move up in the minor league draft, giving up a $31 great pitcher. He’ll have money to spend.

8 Players - $70 Will likely keep Benitez also: 9 Players - $100

Probable Keepers:
1) Garrett Atkins 3B 14-07 – an everyday Rockie is hard to pass on, but only had 13 HR, but did get 87 RBI and hit .287. He’s at value and has upside to hit .300 and more HR’s
2) Billy Hall 3B/SS - $2/06 – when did this guy learn to play, 15-15, another steal, but is a stretch to extend. Will have to be 3B, not good enough MI keeper for this team
3) Adam Everett SS 6-06 – only hit .248, but his 11 HR – 21 SB’s easily were worth his money
4) Brad Hawpe OF 14-07 – you have like a starting Rockie OF’er. Wasn’t great last year, hitting .262, 9 HR in 305 AB. Has 20 HR power and better BAve potential. But, could lose time to Ryan Shealy. Still should be keeper at $14
5) R. Langerhans OF 3-07 – He’ll at least be a platoon left fielder with Kelly Johnson or Matt Diaz. Should get 300+ AB’s, so will be worth $3
6) Aaron Harang P 1-06 – hard to complain about 211 innings, 11 wins, 3.83, 1.27 in Cinci. Jeff likes him, but I don’t see him being extended
7) Derek Lowe P 13-07 – not a stud, but solid year. 222 innings, 3.61, 1.25, 12 wins. And LA will be better, both offense and in bullpen
8) Ben Sheets P 17-06C – when not hurt last year, he pitched great. 10 wins, 3.33, 1.07 in 156 innings. Jeff’s not going to buy him out

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Ricky Ledee OF 2-07 – with all the injuries in LA, he’ll get to play some. Is good for 7-10 HR if gets 200-250 AB’s
2) Bobby Abreu OF 40-06 – His #’s crashed in second half – 6 HR, 10 SB enroute to 24 HR and 31 SB. He could rebound, but isn’t a keeper at $40 again
3) Armando Benitez P 30-06 – he’s at value and should earn it. Jeff may keep, or could throw him back as so many closers available, there’s no real upside to keep
4) Oliver Perez P 3-06 – a true bust last year with his shoulder problems. Could be kept on potential and his 2004 stats, as he’s cheap

OLD RIPS:

I like Oswalt, but he’s no bargain at $31. It seems like there has to be someone out there to spend on for starters, rather then giving up a $2, cheap 3B who solidifies SB with some HR’s. With Lidge, didn’t need closer. So, could have spent $50 on 2 upper level guys to really set up the starters, with $$ to spare. Still, it solidifies his starting pitching. Look for Mark to pay big for a 3B – Rolen, Ensberg, Chipper. Then if keeps Glavine, will not spend much else on his other pitchers. Could also go for Pujols to really set up his HR and Bave.

9 players - $97

1) Yadier Molina C - $3/07 – starting catcher, who doesn’t suck. But, no bargain
2) Felipe Lopez SS - $2/07 - 20 HR-15 SB for $2 is a bargain
3) Chase Utley 2B– $13-07 - should have been a Peckler. Another 20+ -15 MI guy
4) Clint Barmes 2B - $13/06X - .330 / 15+ HR Colorado guy.
5) Jason Lane OF - $7/06 – should continue to improve, 20-25 HR, probably goes to $12/07C
6) Conor Jackson 1B – 5/F – will likely be starting in Arizona, has nothing left to prove in AAA
7) Brad Lidge Closer - $13/07C – one of best keeper values in league
8) Roy Oswalt SP - $31/07 – a star, true #1 starter
9) Matt Morris SP - $10/07 – Now in SF. He had a great recovery year. SF is good, but not as good as StLouis. Still should be keeper.

Other potential keepers:
1) Mike Cameron OF $19/07 – now in SD, so will hurt his HR’s, but still has SB potential. Though not worth $19 without the HR’s
2) Kylie Davies P $5/07F – currently #6 Atlanta starter. Will be good in future, but probably starts in the bullpen
3) Tom Glavine P $10/07 – old, but had solid year in NY. Should have better wins and protection after all the pickups by the Mets
4) Brandon Lyon Closer - $21/07 – looks like lost closer job to Valverde, so not a keeper unless declared he is the the closer.
5) Jose Capellan P – Farm – could make Brewer Bullpen. Has that 100 MPH fastball, and bad control

Written by Dr. Tailgate

Middle of the Road

Here’s a run down on the middle infielders. There is depth at the middle and lower levels of these positions. But, at the top, there are very few players: with 10 of top 15 top 2B kept and 9 off 13 and maybe 11 of 13 top SS kept. Could mean we definitely should keep Eckstein, unless we’re comfortable with the guys left.

2ND BASE:

This is a deep position. There are a lot of keepers, but still a lot of value and low priced players available.

TOP TIER:
1) Alfonso Soriano – AVAILABLE He’s in a war of position with the Nationals, refusing to play OF. So, he could be dealt at any time. Still he’s had 3 years with 30-30 at least in last 4 yrs. He’ll get the 30 SB’s, at least 25 HR even in Wash. He’ll be expensive, $35+
2) Jeff Kent Any9 25-07 – PROBABLY AVAILABLE Another studly 29 HR, 100 RBI, 6 SB, .289 year. But, he had wrist surgery in January, so is a risk. Otherwise Ken would keep him. He will still go the same though around $25. I’d rather go with a cheaper guy
3) Chase Utley Rips 13-07 – KEEPER Coulda, woulda, shoulda. And we shoulda. Though he wouldn’t be a Peckler right now if we had. He’s a stud. Future $18 contract extention next year
4) Marcus Giles Falkuhns 15-06C – KEEPER He was healthy and great, with 15 HR, 16 SB, .291. He’s now the leadoff hitter in front of Renteria, so will get few more steals.

2ND TIER
5) Jose Vidro Pounders 24-07 – AVAILABLE He’s actually only 31 yrs old. But, he’s been hurt past 2 seasons with 412 then 309 AB’s past 2 seasons. But, he’s a professional hitter. If he gets 450 AB’s, he’ll hit .290-.300, 15 HR, 65 RBI.. So, he’d be worth $12-15.
6) Todd Walker Bats 9-06 – KEEPER He’s solid, with 12-15 HR, 50 RBI, .280-.300 stats every year. Should be kept
7) Craig Counsell Falkuhns 5-07 – KEEPER He’s 35, but just gets better. Increased SB 7 to 11 to 17 to 26 past 4 years. He even had 9 HR’s last year. He’s got to be kept as a starting SS with SB’s
8) Ryan Freel Doyle 8-06 KEEPER, possibly extendable After 37 and 36 SB’s past 2 years, he’s a no brainer. Could be extended.
9) Craig Biggio ANY9 13-06 – Could be Ken’s only KEEPER 40 years old, and also playing great. He’s had 24/26 HR’s past 2 years and even 7/11 SB’s. He’ll probably lose a little, but still worth the $13.
10) Bill Hall Rips 2-06 - KEEPER, probably extended 7-07C Already in the 3B lists. No brainer keeper, even without a position to start at.
11) Rickie Weeks Doyle 5-07F - KEEPER He’ll be a 20-30 guy in the future, could be this year.

3rd TIER
12) Orlando Hudson – AVAILABLE He’s been decent in AL, but not studly. He’s a 10-15 HR, 7 SB, .275 hitter. Solid #’s, but no star. He’ll go $10-12.
13) Jerry Hairston Bums 17-07 - 2B/OF - AVAILABLE Needs to get AB’s. In 380 AB, got 4 HR, 8 SB, .261 last year. If Walker got traded, he’d be worth more, with .275, 20-25 SB potential. As backup, only worth $5-7
14) Damien Jackson Wash – 2B/SS AVAILABLE Hurt in 2004, otherwise has had 15-34 SB every year since 1999. He had 15 SB in 275 AB 2005 and 16 SB in 161 AB in 2003. He’ll be good cheap SB guy, could be $3-5 for 15 SB’s.
15) Ray Durham - AVAILABLE Not the leadoff hitter with SB’s the Giants paid for. Has had more HR then SB all 3 Giant years. So, should be .285, 10-14 HR, 60 RBI, 6 SB guy. Worth around $10
16) Hector Luna – 2B/OF AVAILABLE He’s 26 years old, will get AB’s as the utility. Really should be starting at 2B, but Junior Spivey will probably get the job. Still, had .285 with 10 SB in 137 AB last year. Could be a 20 SB guy if gets 250-300 AB’s. Worth going for in cheap slot. I’d rather buy him then Spivey for the $3-5
17) Junior Spivey – Lickers 10-07 – AVAILABLE He’s never been healthy since career year in 2002. Still he had 7 HR, 9 SB in 259 AB’s though with a .232 Ave last year. He could be starting in StL, so could be 10 HR, 8 SB in 350+ AB. Worth $5-7. Bave could hurt.
18) Tony Womack – AVAILABLE He’s now in Cinci. He can steal bases, stole 26+ every year since 1997 except his stint with Cubs. Bave is always suspect, .250-.270. Could be $2-5 if he’s not declared the starter, and could be $10+ if declared starter.
19) Luis Gonzalez – PECK 1-06 – KEEPER .292, 10 HR, and will qualify elsewhere. All for an open spot. Pretty good trade.
20) Josh Barfield – Doyle 5 – 08F – KEEPER He’ll be really good. But, still not worth Valverde.
21) Rich Aurilia – 2B/SS AVAILABLE He was pretty good last year, .282, 14 HR, 68 RBI, but he doesn’t have a set position. He’s behind Lopez at SS and Freel/Womack at 2B. So, AB’s could be tough to get. Still could be decent $3-5 guy.

3RD TIER
22) Alex Cintron – TRADED TO AL
23) Jose Castillo – Falkuhns 2-06 – Keepable, may not make the cut .268 with 11 HR in 370 AB is certainly worth keeping or going for $5
24) Kaz Matsui – AVAILABLE And we could have had Utley and Eckstein for his money. Still, if gets 450-500 AB in NY, he could get 7 HR, 15 SB, .270. He’ll certainly drop in price, but how far? $3-7??
25) Mark Bellhorn – AVAILABLE Looks like he’s losing the job to Barfield. He’s had big years in 2002 and 2004, but sucked last year .210, 8 HR with Yankees. Not a guy to gamble on, no long term upside.
26) Dan Uggla FLA – probable starter now that Pokey Reese was released Currently the starter, but we’ll see if Florida signs someone else. He hit .297 with 21 HR and 15 SB in 498 AB in AA last year. May be overmatched if is in the majors this year. But, looks like he has tools. Could be guy with upside for cheap $$

4TH TIER - The Rest
27) Aaron Miles – Falkuhns 10-06 – AVAILABLE He’s behind Spivey and Luna right now. He’s a $1-2 guy.
28) Damion Easley – AVAILABLE 36 yrs old, behind Hudson in Arizona. Can’t hit. He’s a .240 hitter with 8-10 HR potential. $0-1. Not worth drafting
29) Neifi Perez – 2B/SS Cappers 5-07X – AVAILABLE Got AB’s last year and wow: 572 AB, .274, 9 HR, 8 SB. All better then 3 years before combined. He’s functional I guess for $1-2. Depends on whether gets AB’s or they go to Cedeno
30) Eric Brunlett – AVAILABLE He’s behind Biggio and Everett in Houston, so doesn’t get AB’s. But, he has speed, 7 SB in 109 AB last year. He’ll go $0-1.
31) Abraham Nunez – PHI – 2B/SS/3B AVAILABLE Backup to Bell, who’s hurt now. Still got 421 AB in StL last year, 5 HR, .285 isn’t much to get excited about.
32) Freddy Sanchez – 2B/3B AVAILABLE He got 453 AB last year with .291, 5 HR. that’s pretty much his upside. $1 33) Marlon Anderson – Wash 1B/2B/OF AVAILABLE He’ll be backup and pinch hitter. .250+, 7 HR guy. $0-1

SHORTSTOPS:

Not much left at top, but there is some guys in the middle group left. And some upside guys like Hardy, Hanley Ramirez, Damian Jackson

TOP TIER
1) Jose Reyes – Cappers 15 – 06C, KEEPER He’s now an elite SB guy in NL, had 60 SB last year
2) Felipe Lopez – Rips 2 – 07, KEEPER He really broke out last year with 23 HR, 15 SB, .291 year
3) Rafael Furcal – Lickers 30-07 – KEEPER, at price He started to steal again, had 46 SB last year. And he has 10 HR, .285 stats to go with it. He’s at his price, but SB’s get bid up
4) Jimmy Rollins – Bats 27 – 06, KEEPER I don’t think you extend him, but 12 HR, 41 SB, .290 is worth his price
5) Billy Hall – Rips 2 – 06, KEEPER, likely extend to 7 – 07 See above 2B

2ND TIER
6) Nomar Garciaparra - 3B/SS ANY 9 – 35 – 07, AVAILABLE He’ll be 1B and maybe OF during season also. Has become an injury risk with only 230 AB last year and 550 over past 2 years. If he could ever stay healthy, he could be 20 HR, 80 RBI, .290+ hitter. Will be $20+. Not worth the risk
7) Edgar Renteria - AVAILABLE He sucked in Boston last year. No reason to expect him to not be good back in NL in Atlanta. .290-.300, 10 HR, 15+ SB
8) Jack Wilson – Available He reverted to the .257 Bave he’d had 2002 and 2003 (not the .305 in 2004), but still had 8 HR and 7 SB. Should be similar, with hope for higher Bave as he played better last 2 months.
9) Clint Barmes – Rips 11 – 06X, KEEPER Started out huge, then got hurt. Still he’s a 15-20 HR, .300 potential
10) Adam Everett – Busch 6 – 06, KEEPER Getting better every year, up to 11 HR, 21 SB last year, but only .248 Bave. He’s a keeper, could be extended with the SB’s
11) David Eckstein – PECK 11 – 07, Possible KEEPER .294, 8 HR, 11 SB were solid. Though the HR’s were higher then usual, maybe due to being in a lineup that gets him more fast balls.
12) Khalil Greene – Bums 5 – 06F, KEEPER He’s good, 15 HR, 70 RBI, but .250 Bave. Still keeper, but extend to $15 isn’t worth it

3RD TIER
13) Cesar Izturis – HOBO 5-06, KEEPABLE, ? makes Hobo’s cut with injury He’s hurt, then when returns, will he start at SS or 2B? had 25 SB in 2004, but was only .257, 8 SB in 444 AB last year. Not as good as I thought.
14) Hanley Ramirez – AVAILABLE Was in the trade of Beckett to Boston. This guy could be big in the future. He only was in AA, but looks like he’ll be starting SS in Florida. He could be 20 SB guy with .270+
15) JJ Hardy – Bums 4-07 - Not going to make the cut for the Bums He learned on the job. Had .308 with 8 HR after the All Star Break. He’d be good guy to get, with upside. His .247 with 9 HR totals may scare people away
16) Ronny Cedeno – Doyle 7-07X, Almost worth Valverde , not KEEPER He looks like he could be the starter. He hit .300+ in AAA and majors last year, but don’t expect much else 5-8 HR and SB, though has upside.
17) Rich Aurliia – 2B/SS Available He was pretty good last year, .282, 14 HR, 68 RBI, but he doesn’t have a set position. He’s behind Lopez at SS and Freel/Womack at 2B. So, AB’s could be tough to get. Still could be decent $3-5 guy
18) Omar Vizquel – Any9 – 17-07, Not going to Keep, AVAILABLE He had good year, 24 SB, but slowed down in 2nd half. Still could be .275, 10-15 SB. He’ll be overpriced by the SF Homers
18a) Damien Jackson – Wash – 2B/SS AVAILABLE Hurt in 2004, otherwise has had 15-34 SB every year since 1999. He had 15 SB in 275 AB 2005 and 16 SB in 161 AB in 2003. He’ll be good cheap SB guy, could be $3-5 for 15 SB’s.

THE REST
19) Damion Easley ARIZ 36 yrs old, behind Hudson in Arizona. Can’t hit. He’s a .240 hitter with 8-10 HR potential. $0-1. Not worth drafting
20) Omar Quintanilla COL You have to like guys in Colorado. Though, he can hit for Bave, he’s not a HR or SB guy in minors. He’s a $1 guy.
21) Neifi Perez CHC – Capper 5-07X - NOT Got AB’s last year and wow: 572 AB, .274, 9 HR, 8 SB. All better then 3 years before combined. He’s functional I guess for $1-2. Depends on whether gets AB’s or they go to Cedeno
22) Royce Clayton WASH – Busch 14 – 07X, We can hope, but NOT He’s old, and lots of guys in Wash. He can still steal 10 SB with .270 if he gets 500 AB as a starter. Otherwise, forget it.
23) Alex Gonzalez PHI – The ex Cub, not the ex-Marlin He’s the bad Alex. He’ll get .230-.245 with 7+ HR
24) Wilson Betemit SS/3B ATL Not much upside being behind Chipper unless he gets hurt. Betemit did hit .300 with 4 HR in 246 AB’s. He’s worth $1, with upside if gets any AB’s
25) Ramon Martinez LA He’s got no upside. Not worth drafting
26) Alfredo Amezaga FLA He’s in the mix at SS and 2B, but can he hit?? He’s not shown anything in the past.
27) Oscar Robles LA This team is deep with infielders, and he’s low on the depth chart. He’ll drop further when Izturis returns. Not worth drafting.
28) Deivi Cruz STL He’s behind a lot of guys. So AB’s will be tough to get. Probably only a $0-1, likely not drafted
29) Cristian Guzman WASH He’s currently the starter at SS, but the worst guy. I’d rather start Clayton or Damian Jackson. Hit .219 last year. Though he’s really a .265 guy. He’s stopped stealing bases also.

Rippin' the Rips

This piece was written by both of us.

Boof Brittain called me last night to report on his recent login in at Larry Dot Net (aka Clavin Dot Com). Larry called to tell him that he had been hornswaggled by Mr. Leaguer in the Hall for Oswalt deal.

I told Boof that the same Larry Dot Net had once told me that I hosed the Elder Barry (I think it was him) when I traded him Luis Gonzalez at 17 and Felix Rodriguez at about 3 for Dave Veres. Gonzalez went on to hit 56 homers that year, Rodriguez won 10 games and was lights out for the Giants, and Veres was an ex-closer before the all-star break. So maybe hearing Larry’s negative opinion was a good thing.

In the course of the conversation, we discussed George’s great keeper list. He insisted that with a $1 Tony Clark, George should trade for Conor Jackson. I said he didn’t have anything worth giving up for a promising part time player. Clearly Boof took that as a challenge, and about 15 minutes later we got the next trade email – Jackson for Smoltz.

I imagine the conversation went something like this:

Boof – Interested in Conor Jackson?

George – Maybe.

Boof – How about Smoltz?

George – Um…ok.

Except, he didn’t say “Um.”

As to him not having anyone worth trading, well, I guess I was wrong. I started to do the starting pitching list when I saw the second trade. The guys at the top available will be Pedro, Mark Prior, Tim Hudson, Jason Schmidt, Zach Duke, Kerry Wood, and maybe Mark Mulder. Everyone has questions, most coming back from injury or Zach going to his sophomore slump. Mark obviously saw this and decided to get his starters now and just spend on hitting, which may be more secure.

George gets the Clark/Jackson platoon and even more money to spend. I think both teams got what they want, and will be the top 2 teams going in. But, I like George’s team now over Mark’s after both trades. George is more balanced and has more money to spend on his needs and he can be very flexible as to how he can fill his needs. Mark has more openings to fill and less money.

Dr. Tailgate’s roster analysis:

OLD RIPS:
He traded away his corners to get 2 front line starters. It’s safer, just more expensive. He lost Hall ($2) + Jackson ($5) = $7 for Oswalt + Smoltz = $51. He will now need to spend money on 2 corners and he still needs another SB guy. He won’t have to spend much on starting pitching, and he may not have money now for a second closer. I don’t know who’s his #10 – Glavine closes out his Starters vs Cameron who gives him SB’s for $19. The team gets more expensive: 10 for $127 or $136.

The team needs to spend on some sure thing hitters: Pujols/Helton + Rolen/Ensberg for $70-80. With only $150 left, that will leave $70-80 for Outfielders, a cheap corner, and 5-6 pitchers, which is certainly doable. But, is this better then Jackson + Hall + Glavine: 10 for $78, with $202 to spend on: Pujols $50, Pierre $36, Pedro $30, Tim Hudson $26, and $60 to spend on Outfielders and backup pitching. This gets him similar starters, more SB’s and can easily get value in outfield. Personally I think I like the flexibility and upside of latter over the more security, but no corners and maybe not enough money for SB’s of Mark’s choice.

It will be interesting to see who he gets in the draft. 9 players - $117 + Cameron ($19) vs Glavine ($10)

1) Yadier Molina C - $3/07 – starting catcher, who doesn’t suck. But, no bargain
2) Felipe Lopez SS - $2/07 - 20 HR-15 SB for $2 is a bargain
3) Chase Utley 2B– $13-07 - should have been a Peckler. Another 20+ -15 MI guy
4) Clint Barmes 2B - $13/06X - .330 / 15+ HR Colorado guy.
5) Jason Lane OF - $7/06 – should continue to improve, 20-25 HR, probably goes to $12/07C
6) Brad Lidge Closer - $13/07C – one of best keeper values in league
7) Roy Oswalt SP - $31/07 – a star, true #1 starter
8) John Smoltz SP $20/07 – He’s a year older and always an injury risk. Still, he was great last year: 14 wins, 2.95, 1.135
9) Matt Morris SP - $10/07 – Now in SF. He had a great recovery year. SF is good, but not as good as StLouis. Still should be keeper.

Other potential keepers:
1) Mike Cameron OF $19/07 – now in SD, so will hurt his HR’s, but still has SB potential. Though not worth $19 without the HR’s
2) Tom Glavine P $10/07 – old, but had solid year in NY. Should have better wins and protection after all the pickups by the Mets
3) Kylie Davies P $5/07F – currently #6 Atlanta starter. Will be good in future, but probably starts in the bullpen
4) Brandon Lyon Closer - $21/07 – looks like lost closer job to Valverde, so not a keeper unless declared he is the the closer.
5) Jose Capellan P – Farm – could make Brewer Bullpen. Has that 100 MPH fastball, and bad control
6) Chad Qualls P a buck – you could spend a buck in a lot of worse ways.

Mark wants to make a 2 for 1. If he doesn’t, I’d bet on Cameron. As for Mark’s situation, the Doc made a very good point: he can have Pedro and Hudson for around $56, give or take. Maybe a little less great than Oswalt and Smoltz, but still pretty good, plus he’d have those 2 cheap guys. The pitchers were replaceable in the draft, but Hall and Jackson probably will not be without a lot of luck.

Back to the Doc’s analysis:

CAPPERS:
He gets the high upside platoon of Clark + Jackson for $6 at 1B/CI, so he doesn’t have to worry about who is playing. He has lots of Power and a great start at SB with Reyes. The keepers got cheaper, with more money to spend on pitching, 2B/MI, and OF. Alfonso Soriano or Beltran or Winn could give him whatever he needs in SB’s and add some power too. And he’ll buy Pedro or Hudson to go with Pettitte and Myers. Spending $60-65 on the multi-category hitter plus the stud starting pitcher still leaves him around $100 for more pitching and OF. He’ll be able to spend for a 2nd closer ($30), 4th Starter ($15-20) and OF’ers at $10 average.

10 players for $118.

1) Javier Valentin C $1/07 – Jason La Who? This guy could play everyday, with .290, 12 HR in only 175 AB’s. But, they resigned LaRue to be the main guy still.
2) Tony Clark 1B $1/07 – WOW. .308 with 25 HR as platoon guy. Where did that .308 come from. This guy couldn’t even play for the Mets last year. Will get AB’s in platoon with Connor Jackson. Now that Tracy is at 3B full time
3) Edwin Encarnacion 3B - $5/07F - should start in Cinci this year. He’s a sure keeper if makes ML roster, and they have no one better
4) Conor Jackson 1B – 5/F – will likely be starting in Arizona with Clark, has nothing left to prove in AAA. Has big power upside.
5) Jose Reyes SS - $15/06C – finally lived up to the hype with 51 SB’s. George probably should have extended him to $20. Got to get a top SB guy to stay in the game, and he’s the best (except for Podsednik of course)
6) Lance Berkman OF $28/07 – started slow after DL, but is now at .295 with 19 HR. Should be back to .300+, 30 HR, 100 RBI’s next year
7) Pat Burrell OF $29/07 – He’s back, no .209 Bave this year. .280 – 30 HR’s – 106 RBI so far. Easy keeper
8) Andy Pettitte SP $16/07 – I didn’t like his Ratio history and Injury History. Man he’s been great. 15 wins, 2.48, 1.056. A steal.
9). Brett Myers SP $2/07 - George was mad he didn’t take Ohka at draft instead of him, but 12 Wins, 3.63/1.222 later, he had a bargain.
10) Trevor Hoffman CL $16/06C – He’s 38 and just gets better. Eliminating the injury year 2003, his worst #’s were his rookie year in 1993. No reason to think he’ll be worse any time soon.

The next guys:
1) Ugueth Urbina CL $17/07 – can a player be called a “free” agent, when he’s in jail awaiting trial for murder.
2) Luis Gonzalez OF $22/07 – I know, he’s an old guy, but he’s always worth $20-25. He’ll go around that in draft, so not worth it on this team.
3) Jim Edmonds OF $29/06 – another stellar year with 25 + HR, just not good enough on Cappers.
4) Russ Branyan 3B $7/06X – solid 15 HR guy undervalued.
5
) Barry Bonds OF $31/07 – if he’s back and healthy, he’s below value
6) Vinny Castilla 3B - $6/06C – Now in SD, a bad HR park. George will probably have to buy out the contract, or will have to drop someone above

Final note from Pefacommish – Boof said he thinks he might not keep Burrell. Gotta be smoke, but who knows? Maybe George doesn’t want to cut Castilla loose for a benjy. And maybe he’s satisfied with 2nd place.

A Fresh Start

I want to review our keepers and propose a new mega-strategy.

I think our best 3 keepers are Webb at 14, Gonzalez at 1 and Barrett at 3. They are all going to be worth more than these figures barring injury, and everyone in the league would pretty much keep them.

Our other guys are all marginal calls.

Eckstein at 11 is probably worth it. He gets a few steals and he hits Mo Vaughn's weight. Last year he demonstrated some power, albeit for the first time, with 8 homers. With the eight homers, he is worth keeping at 11. Without the homers, he's marginal. Furthermore, I don't think he'll go for much more than 11. The one thing that calls for considering the stretch to keep him is the shortage at short, as predicted by Dr. Tailgate. But he's not tradable at this price and he's not in any demand. He's one of those guys that will start and end on your team.

Floyd at 26 seems like a sure thing. Homers, some steals, RBI's and a BA that doesn't hurt you. But he's an ultra-injury guy who nobody trusts, who now has some kind of Peckleritis - high BP, high cholesterol, who the hell knows. We got an incredible season out of him. Aren't we just pushing our luck to keep him another year, as we did last year with JD Drew? Plus, everyone is scared of the guy, which is why we got him for 26. Maybe we'll get a better deal.

Andruw Jones, 51 homers, 36. Worth it. Clearly. But his BA is mediocre, and it could be a career year. He doesn't steal much anymore either. He's Jim Thome, without qualifying at first, with a lower batting average, and with only one year over 36 homers. I think he's for real, but he's got what is going to be a dead contract, making him only tradable to contenders. I say throw him back and give ourselves more flexibility.

Finally, Jae Seo. I like him. I want him. He might be a buck, and he won't be 10. This is the era of the $1 starting pitcher. Why not take a chance to get him cheaper with an extendable contract? Even 7-08 might be better for a good pitcher than 5-7x, and if he's 3-08, it's way better.

As an afterthought, David Bell, 4. Forget it. He'll be 4 anyway.

Three players, $18, or 4 players $29. The big problem? It's hard to have a lot of money at the auction. But it sure would be fun.

Around the Corner

We found out last year it’s important to know the positions of scarcity and those that have interchangeable parts. I will include players who qualify in multiple positions at each position. I will also include players expected to be kept, to rank them in case they aren’t kept. The position of most scarcity I think will actually be SS. There are a lot of SS’s, but not at the high level. I will start with the Corners.

FIRST BASE:

This is a deep position with available top level players and lots of decent players who will be mid range or cheap. I will start with the likely available guys, then the likely keepers in each Tier.

TOP TIER STARS:
1) Albert Pujols – will be $50 doesn’t get any better, .330, 41 HR, 129 RBI, 16 SB.
2) Adam Dunn – 1B/OF - ANY 9 - $39/07 Will go for $30-35. Did have 40 HR – 107 RBI. But, he’s stopped stealing bases (only 4) and BAve dropped to .247. Career high was .266, otherwise never above .249. This should drop his value.
3) Todd Helton - ?$35+ He dropped in all his stats, though still did hit .320, but this was worst since 1998. He only had 20 HR – 79 RBI. He has had lower #’s for past 4 years actually. He had 30-33 HR, 96-117 RBI previous 3 years, which are great. But, this was down from 2 prior star years: 42/49 HR, 147/146 RBI, which will still drive his price. Expect him to return to 30+ HR – 100 RBI - .330 though.
4) Derrek Lee – BATS, $34 /06 – KEEPER Career year. Won’t repeat, but still stud: .290, 35-40 HR, 100 RBI, 12 SB
5) Carlos Delgado – Lickers, $34/07 – Probable Keeper Consistent 32+ HR – 100+ RBI since 1997. BAve goes up or down: .270 or .300. Should have similar #’s with NY Mets.
6) Lance Berkman – Cappers, $28/07, 1B/OF – Probable Keeper Off year due to injury and only 468 AB, but still had 24 HR, 82 RBI. Should return to 30 HR, 100 RBI, .295-300 with full year
7) Ryan Howard – Doyle, $5/07F – KEEPER No brainer keeper for years to come.

2ND TIER
8) Chad Tracy – BUMS 5/6F - KEEPER He’ll be starting 3B, and will get .300, 20 HR with no competition for AB’s
9) Adam LaRoche – BUMS 9/06 – KEEPER Julio Franco’s gone, so should get 500+ AB now. 20+ HR, .275

3RD TIER
10) Nick Johnson – BUMS $15/07 – Doesn’t make the cut for Bums Was injured, so didn’t get full AB’s. Look for 15-20 HR, .280, 75 RBI. Worth $15, but not huge upside
11) Sean Casey – Expect .300+ Bave, but wouldn’t expect more then 10-15 HR, 75 RBI in Pitt. Always gets overpriced. Really shouldn’t be more then $15
12) Tony Clark – Cappers $1/07 - KEEPER Won’t hit .304 – 30 HR again, but still a studly value at $1
13) Conor Jackson – Rips $5/F – KEEPER He’ll have the starting 1B job with Clark getting some of his AB’s. Still has huge upside and obvious keeper
14) Prince Fielder – Falkuhns - $5/F – KEEPER Starting 1B job in Milwaukee, future star
15) Mike Jacobs – Falkuhns - $6/07X – KEEPER Great pickup by Larry.net. Now the starting 1B or at worst platoon 1B in Florida. Had 11 HR in 100 AB, so should be good for 20+ HR in full season.

4th TIER
16) Jeff Bagwell – Doyle $24 – not keeper Houston is trying to declare him disabled. So, may not even play this year. Would be interesting to see where he lands or if he plays. Could be cheap.
17) Lance Niekro Starting 1B, though will lose some AB’s to Sweeney. Still, had 12 HR in 278 AB, so has 20 HR potential, and hitting behind Barry, Alou, and Feliz will get RBI’s. BAve could be anything .250-.285. Could be $8-12, depending on all the Giant homers.
18) Xavier Nady – Lickers $10/07 Looks to be starting or platoon OF with Mets. Figure 10-12 HR, .265, 50 RBI. Not the same hype as last year. Could be $5-8.
19) Hee Seop Choi – Rips $10/07 – not keeper Had 15 HR, but has no job. Could get 10 HR with .260 if gets 250 AB’s. Hard to see him getting them though, unless Nomar goes to OF. Should be cheap $5

5th TIER – CHEAP GUYS
20) Ryan Shealy Future 1B in Colorado and may get some AB’s in OF. He can hit, is big guy. Could be 10 HR in limited AB’s in Colorado, and 20-25 HR if had a job. Could be $2-3 21) Olmedo Saenz LA He had 15 HR in 319 AB last year, but like Choi, he won’t play. But, could be productive when does play. Should be $1-3
22) Mike Lamb He’s gotten 14 and 12 HR in 278/322 AB’s last 2 years in Houston. He plays everywhere and will probably get the 250 AB’s again backing everyone up again. Worth $2-5
23) Adrian Gonzalez SD Traded from Texas. He’ll back up Klesko and could be 15 HR, .290-.300 hitter if got to start. Worth $1-3 on upside alone
24) Scott Hatteberg Cin He’ll have more value, if he gets to play catcher. Otherwise, he’ll be behind Dunn. Would be .260 -7 HR guy if gets to play some. Nothing special. Only worth $1-2
25) Mark Sweeney Depends on whether he gets to play at all, either platoon or if Niekro flops. Look for 150 AB with 7+ HR, .270. Worth $1-2, maybe more if you have Niekro and want protection
26) Robert Fick Wash He qualifies as a catcher. So, no reason to draft at 1B, unless you have 2 catchers and want depth. He’s not worth it at 1B. There’s better $1 guys.
27) Daryle Ward Wash He has 10-12 HR power, .265 Bave if gets 300+ AB’s. Only will get if Nick Johnson gets hurt. Only $1-2.
28) Brad Eldred Pitt Back up to Casey, but he has power. Had 12 HR in 190 AB, but .221 is real. Will get some chances to play, but are the 10 HR in 200 AB, worth the BAve. For $1-2, maybe.
29) Julio Franco NYMET He’s older the I am and still playing. Won’t get much more then pinch hitting unless Delgado gets hurt. $1 if drafted

THIRD BASE: Though Larry Dot Net keeps saying there aren’t enough 3Bmen, there’s actually more depth then there has been in the past few years.

TOP TIER
1) Miguel Cabrera – Falkuhns $15/06C – Keeper Star, but stats may not be as good without any other players in Florida
2) David Wright – Doyle 5/06F – Will be Extended Star, will be better with all the Mets additions
3) Scott Rolen If comes back from injury, could return to 30 HR, 100+ RBI, .280 glory days. He gets AB’s with that lineup. He could slip due to the injury, still could go $25-30
4) Morgan Ensberg Bats should have extended him. Had the career year we thought could happen when we drafted him. After 36 HR, 101 RBI, .283 year, could be $25+ or less if people don’t believe it
5) Chipper Jones Pounders $33/06 – doubt kept If healthy could easily be back to 25-30 HR, 100 RBI, .280 year. Will go around same price at $28-30
6) Aramis Ramirez – Bats $29/06 – probable keeper Could be thrown back, but after .302, 31 HR, 92 RBI, he earns his money. If thrown back will be $30

2ND TIER
7) Nomar Garciaparra – 3B/SS He’ll be 1B and maybe OF during season also. Has become an injury risk with only 230 AB last year and 550 over past 2 years. If he could ever stay healthy, he could be 20 HR, 80 RBI, .290+ hitter. Will be $20+. Not worth the risk
8) Joe Randa – Falkuhns $13/07 – keepable, may not make the cut Had good year: .276, 17 HR, 71 RBI, and is now with Pitt. Could match those #’s. Would go $13-15, depending on the demand for 3B.
9) Bill Hall – Rips $2/06 – KEEPER, extendable, 2B/SS/3B Who’d have thought it, but he’s a stud. .291, 17 HR, 18 SB, 69 RBI., and qualifies everywhere. Easily $15-20 value
10) Pedro Feliz – 3B/OF, Bums $10/06 - KEEPER Well he’s the everyday 3B, and in that lineup should get 20+ HR, 75 RBI. Bave crashed in second half, so can’t expect better then .260. Still he’s a $15 player

3RD TIER: Potential Young and Old
11) Edwin Encarnacion – Cappers $5/F – KEEPER It’s his job now, and 20-25 HR, .265 year, in Cinci is sure possible. He’d be $15 in the draft
12) Garrett Atkins – Busch $14/07 – At value, could be kept He was OK last year, but not worth his cost. Still, he’s in Colorado and is the starter, so could easily improve on rookie year to 15+ HR, 90 RBI, .290. Not bad, worth $10-15. Remember, he’s not the future star here, Ian Stewart should be up in 2007 to take the job.
13) Vinny Castilla – Cappers $6/06C – KEEPER vs BUYOUT? Didn’t live up to previous stats in Washington, 12 HR, 66 RBI, .253. He’s now in SD, which isn’t much better to hit in. So, expect the same 10-15 HR, 70 RBI. He’ll go $5-10.
14) Corey Koskie Starting 3B in Milwaukee, though will lose AB’s to Bill Hall. He’s an injury waiting to happen, hasn’t had 490 AB since 2002, but their usually productive ones. 2004: 422 AB, 25 HR, 9 SB. I don’t see him getting 25 HR again, but he could get 15 HR, 8-10 SB in 425 AB. Worth $15-17.
15) Bill Mueller He’s always been decent hitter, but won’t get batting crown like 2003. Figure .295 with 10 HR and 70 RBI similar to past 2 years. Worth $8-10.
16) Ryan Zimmerman Nats How did we miss a jew on our prospect list. It’s his job without Vinny there. He’ll hit for average, but isn’t a power guy. He looks more like a doubles guy, so as he gets better, might become a HR guy. Could be .310, 10-15 HR guy with future upside. Who knows what he’ll go for, probably $10 range

4TH TIER – The rest of the bunch
17) David Bell – Pecklers $4/06 – not keeping #’s dropped last year, but if healthy could be 10+ HR, .260, but no big upside. He’ll go same range, $3-6
18) Alex Cintron – 2B/SS/3B Flexible, and will get 350 AB’s as utility. He was pretty good last year: .273, 8 HR, 48 RBI. Not studly, but solid for $1-3 guy who’ll play everywhere
19) Abraham Nunez Phili – 2B/SS/3B He’s the guy who was in StL last year. He’s a bench guy, but could get more play as he’s behind Bell. Hit .285 with 5 HR in 421 AB, so no real power. He’s a $1-2 fill in due to flexibility.
20) Wes Helms Hasn’t done much since had his career year for us in 2003. He’ll backup Jacobs and Cabrera, so could get 200 AB. Still that only means 5 or so HR. So, only worth $1.
21) Jose Valentin NY Met He won’t get much play behind Wright and Reyes. He had 35-30 HR from 2000-2004 with bad Bave. Then he crashed in 2005 in LA to 2 HR in 147 AB. If gets AB’s he’ll get some HR’s, but will kill the Bave. Worth $1-3.
22) Freddy Sanchez Pit – 2B/3B He’ll be utility and get 300+ AB’s. But, other then hitting .290, he won’t help at all with HR or SB’s. Worth only $1-2.
23) Oscar Robles LAD This team is deep with infielders, and he’s low on the depth chart. He’ll drop further when Isturis returns. Not worth drafting.
24) Jeff Baker COL He should change his name to Jeff Brittain, as he basically sucked. He had the chance to be the starting 3B in Col, but he blew it. He’ll only play much if Atkins gets hurt. Worth $1-2, as he’s a Rockie.
25) Wilson Betemit Atl Not much upside being behind Chipper unless he gets hurt. Betemit did hit .300 with 4 HR in 246 AB’s. He’s worth $1, with upside if gets any AB’s
26) Willy Aybar LAD Probably goes to AAA, as there’s no place for him. Not worth more then $1 on potential only.
27) Geoff Blum SD – 2B/SS/3B He won’t get as many AB’s in SD, but could get 250 AB, with 5-8 HR, but crappy BAve. Will go $0-2, but not worth it due to the Bave.
28) Bobby Hill SD Behind Barfield and Bellhorn at 2B, so not going to get AB’s. And he can’t hit even with those AB’s. Worth $0.

So, lots of depth at both positions, with some quality at the top and lower levels.

Written by Dr. Tailgate

The New Guys Looking Up

BUSCH LEAGUERS:

LOST – Roberto Hernandez, Andy Marte, DeAngelo Jimenez

Has good keepers, but not much extra value. Will need to get SB’s, and closer. Has good start at starting pitchers, so Jeff will use his magic and get cheap starters and spend his money on a closer and hitting.

7 Players - $68

Probable Keepers:
1) Garrett Atkins 3B 14-07 – an everyday Rockie is hard to pass on, but only had 13 HR, but did get 87 RBI and hit .287. He’s at value and has upside to hit .300 and more HR’s 2
) Adam Everett SS 6-06 – only hit .248, but his 11 HR – 21 SB’s easily were worth his money
3) Brad Hawpe OF 14-07 – you have like a starting Rockie OF’er. Wasn’t great last year, hitting .262, 9 HR in 305 AB. Has 20 HR power and better BAve potential. But, could lose time to Ryan Shealy. Still should be keeper at $14
4) R. Langerhans OF 3-07 – He’ll at least be a platoon left fielder with Kelly Johnson or Matt Diaz. Should get 300+ AB’s, so will be worth $3
5) Aaron Harang P 1-06 – hard to complain about 211 innings, 11 wins, 3.83, 1.27 in Cinci. Jeff likes him, but I don’t see him being extended
6) Derek Lowe P 13-07 – not a stud, but solid year. 222 innings, 3.61, 1.25, 12 wins. And LA will be better, both offense and in bullpen
7) Ben Sheets P 17-06C – when not hurt last year, he pitched great. 10 wins, 3.33, 1.07 in 156 innings. Jeff’s not going to buy him out

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Ricky Ledee OF 2-07 – with all the injuries in LA, he’ll get to play some. Is good for 7-10 HR if gets 200-250 AB’s
2) Bobby Abreu OF 40-06 – His #’s crashed in second half – 6 HR, 10 SB enroute to 24 HR and 31 SB. He could rebound, but isn’t a keeper at $40 again
3) Armando Benitez P 30-06 – he’s at value and should earn it. Jeff may keep, or could throw him back as so many closers available, there’s no real upside to keep
4) Oliver Perez P 3-06 – a true bust last year with his shoulder problems. Could be kept on potential and his 2004 stats, as he’s cheap

BATS:

LOST – Mackowiak, Javier Vazquez Has a good start on HR and SB’s with 4 infielders. Has 2 closers. Will need starting pitching and OF’ers to complete the team.

9 Players - $129

Probable Keepers:
1) Derrek Lee 1B 34-06 – No brainer. Had his career year: .335, 46 HR, 107 RBI, 15 SB. Doesn’t matter if won’t happen again, still will be worth the money
2) Todd Walker 2B 9-06 – still starting 2B in Chicago, so unless Jerry Hairston is declared the starter, should be worth keeping. Had 12 HR, .305 last year
3) Jimmy Rollins SS 27-06 – SB’s are tough to get. He’s probably extendable to $32 after .290, 12 HR, 41 SB season
4) Victor Diaz OF 3-07 – We laughed at Mackowiak in 2004. We laughed at Diaz, but he got 280 AB’s and made the most of it 12 HR, 6 SB.
5) Aramis Ramirez 3B 29-06 – Solid year .302, 31 HR, 92 RBI. Worth keeping, but he’s at his value, as he gets 0 SB
6) Matt Cain P 5-07F – He’s a future star, but rookie years are always a crap shoot. Still worth the gamble, especially with Barry back
7) Brian Fuentes P 10-07 – lucked into Jeff dropping Fuentes, then he started to close games. And he was studly. 31 Sv, 2.91, 1.25, 91 K in 74 innings. Can he keep those #’s in Colorado. Will he be looking over his shoulder at Jose Mesa (not)?
8) Mike Gonzalez P 12-07 – the one future closer to actually be given the job this year. And with Salomon Torres and Marte setting him up, he should have a good chance to get some leads actually into the 9th inning

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Tomo Ohka P 1-07 – Now in Milwaukee, will be in the rotation. That could be good or bad. He’s going from good pitcher park to a hitter’s park. But, $1 might be worth the risk: 180 inning, 4.04, 1.35
2) John Lieber P 14-07 – At full value, 218 inning, 4.20, 1.21, 17 wins are OK, but ERA could hurt. Phili doesn’t look as good as in the past to get those wins. 3
) Jason LaRue C 7-07 – resigned to be the starter, but is at value. 14 HR, .260 are OK. But, also has Javier Valentin as backup who had great year also.
4) Tim Hudson P 33-07 – Was OK, but not worth 33. Still will go around $30. 14 Wins, 3.52, 1.35 aren’t earth shattering for that price

ANY 9

LOST – Luis Castillo, Vincente Padilla, Alfonseca More like Any 2 or Any 3. Will have lots of money to spend and enforce bidding.

2 Players - $38 or 3 Players - $55 with Vizquel.

Probable Keepers:
1) Jeff Kent 2B 25-07 – now the #2 power hitting 2B in NL (after Soriano), so good starting point: .289, 29 HR, 105 RBI
2) Craig Biggio 2B 13-06 – he’s not playing his age (40), with .264, 26 HR, 11 SB last year. Someday he’ll hit the wall, and it could happen at any time (just ask Sammy Sosa)
3) Omar Vizquel SS 17-07 – probably won’t keep, so look for him to be traded to one of the SF homers after 24 SB year

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Adam Dunn 1B/OF 39-07 – did get the HR’s (40) and RBI (101) as expected, but BAve .247 sucked, and stopped stealing, only 4 SB. Will go for the same, but not worth keeping on chance price drops due to BAve
2) Bobby Hill 3B 2-07 – if was 2B, he might be worth the risk that Bellhorn and Barfield can’t hit. Unfortunately, he can’t either
3) Brazoban P 5-06X – Was unhittable in 2004, but not able to cash in as the closer. Now is the #3 guy, so should have chance to get good #’s, but no saves. Not keepable now
4) Johnny Estrada C 11-06 – After great start in 2004, had disappointing year with only .261, 4 HR year. Value has dropped, not keeper now
5) Odalis Perez P 20-07 – He was hurt last year and never did return to form. So, value should drop after 7 Wins, 4.56, 1.26 year.

POUNDERS:

LOST – Lyle Overbay, Corey Patterson, JT Snow, Troy Glaus, Jeff Weaver A great Pitching staff with 3 front line starters (if Lowry is like 2nd half) and 2 Closers. Can spend almost all his money on hitters.

6 Players - $89

Probable Keepers:
1) Carlos Lee OF 38-07 – He was full priced, but performed. The BAve dropped to .265 in 1st year in NL, but could easily rise back to .290. And the rest was as usual with 31 HR, 114 RBI, 13 SB. I know, he’s no Corey $39 Patterson, but who is.
2) Carlos Zambrano P 8-06C – 3rd great year, and Whip has improved to .115, with 14 Wins and 3.26 ERA and 200 K’s is a true #1 pitcher
3) Mark Mulder P 26-07 – turned out to be the ex-A’s pitcher to have, 16 Wins, 205 inning, 3.64, 1.38 and he’s on best team in NL, so should do as well.
4) Noah Lowry P 11-07 – a tale of 2 half-seasons. ERA 5.07 in 1st half, then ended up with 13 wins and 3.78 ERA for season. August was 5-0 with 0.69 ERA. Unbelievable.
5) Jose Valverde P 4-07 – An injury waiting to happen, but until then, he’s the closer. Brandon Lyon is back, but his #’s sucked, probably due to his injury though.
6) Derek Turnbow P 2-07 – he was a stud, after Brewers gave up on Mike Adams early. His #’s look like he has real stuff, if can continue the good control.

Other Possible Keepers:
1) LoDuca C 14-06 – Not worth the price after BAve dropped to .283, and only 6 HR’s.
2) Chipper Jones 3B 33-06 – He was hurt, so only 358 AB’s, still he did have 21 HR, 72 RBI, .296 year. Would be worth the price if stays healthy. But, won’t go more, and would better off having new 08 contract

LICKERS:

LOST – Nevin, Loaiza, Jim Thome After having no keepers and lots of money last year, will start with

6 Players - $110, so not the spending potential. The players are all near value, but are solid players to start with. And has SB’s, so can spend elsewhere.

Probable Keepers:
1) Carlos Delgado 1B 34-07 – went full price, but is worth it as a true 3 category guy: .301, 33 HR, 115 RBI. Should be similar in NY.
2) Furcal SS 30-07 – Like Rollins, you’ve got to spend for SB’s and he’s a good one. .284 – 12 HR – 46 SB last year
3) Dave Roberts OF 24-07 – He was hurt, only got 411 AB. Didn’t get as many steals as expected, but 23 SB’s is still good, but 12 CS isn’t good. He added 8 HR with .275 BAve. He’s at value, but worth keeping as a SB guy.
4) Doug Davis P 12-07 – Worth every penny, 11 wins, 222 innings, 208 K, 3.84, 1.30 are all solid #’s for the price
5) Blaine Boyer P 5-07X – he’s currently the #2 behind Reitsma in Atlanta, so worth the gamble that he could be the closer at any point
6) Eric Reed Farm – He’s currently the starting CF’er, so worth keeping. Still would be cheap if Florida gets someone else

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Roger Clemens P 24-07 – Not going to be on an opening day roster, so won’t be keepable
2) Livan Hernandez P 9-07 – He keeps surprising us, sometimes good and others bad. He says he’s 31 years old, give or take 10 years. Still he was 15 Wins, 246 Innings, 3.98 ERA last year, but 1.43 Whip is a killer
3) Marquis P 13-07 – inning eater on great team, but #’s dropped to 4.13 and 1.33 in 207 innings. Would go for same, not worth more.
4) Brandon Backe P 2-07 – didn’t show the stuff he had in 2004 playoffs. He’s only a $1-2 player at best anyway.Spivey 2B 10-07 – if is given the 2B job, he’d be keepable. He’ll get pitches to hit in that lineup in StLouis. BAve .232 was bad, but in 259 AB, had 7 HR

Written by Dr. Tailgate