Getting Started with Starters

This was done 3/15, long before keepers done.

Well here’s the list of starters. Well, I can now see why Mark wanted Oswalt and Smoltz, as there’s not much at the top. We should have tried to trade him Pedro.

Top Tier #1 Starters – Not much at the top available. We’ll have to remember that Peavy, Sheets, Zambrano will be in draft 2007, maybe with overpriced Pedro and Prior.

Pedro Martinez Peck 30/07 – AVAILABLE
Pretty studly #’s, even with the slide he had down the stretch with his toe injury: 15-8, 2.82 ERA, 0.95 Whip. Toe still could be a problem and he won’t go for much if any more. Unless guys overvalue the Mets hitting or chase him as the top pitcher available. Probably will go around $30 again.

Mark Prior – AVAILABLE
He’s a star when healthy. But, he’s already hurt with shoulder pain and may not start the season in Chicago. He was injured for part of 2005, still got 166 innings, 11 wins, 3.67, 1.21. He was healthy star in 2003. But, hurt 2004 and 2002. He’s a big risk. Interesting at $15-18, but not worth it at $22+ where he’ll likely go on name alone

Chris Carpenter Hobo 1/06 – EXTEND to 6/07C, maybe 11/08C
Hard to extend any starter more then 1 year, but Cy Carpenter could be the exception. Just getting better every year and on a great team.

Roy Oswalt Rips 31/07 – KEEPER, full price
a star, true #1 starter. Got to keep a guy you trade a $2 hitter with 20-20 potential

Jake Peavy Bums 15/06C – KEEPER
I saw him pitch 2 years ago against Giants and here was this scrawny little guy getting beat up and he didn’t look like anything. True that’s when the Giants knew how to hit. Man was I wrong, this guys a stud. How does he have only 12 wins, with 2.93/1.031 #’s, but I guess Clemens is asking the same. A stopper for this team

Ben Sheets Busch 17/06C – KEEPER
When not hurt last year, he pitched great. 10 wins, 3.33, 1.07 in 156 innings. Jeff’s not going to buy him out

John Smoltz Rips 20/07 – KEEPER
we were all scared by his opening start and injury fear. 14 wins, 2.95, 1.135

Carlos Zambrano Pounders 8/06C – KEEPER
3rd great year, and Whip has improved to .115, with 14 Wins and 3.26 ERA and 200 K’s is a true #1 pitcher

2ND TIER

Tim Hudson Bats 33/07 - AVAILABLE
Was OK, but not worth 33. He had 14 Wins, 3.52, 1.35 aren’t earth shattering for that price. Still will go around $25-28.

Jason Schmidt - AVAILABLE
He was hurt to start last year and never quite got his 95+ MPH fastball then. If it’s back, he could go back to his previous 2 year SF #’s with ERA 3.2 or less, and 1.08 Ratio. He could easily stay similar to 2005: 4.40, 1.42. Likely, he’ll be in the middle 4.0, 1.25 with 15 wins. Worth $15, but will go $20-25.

Mark Mulder Pounders 26/07 – PROBABLY AVAILABLE
turned out to be the ex-A’s pitcher to have, 16 Wins, 205 inning, 3.64, 1.38 and he’s on best team in NL, so should do as well.

Dontrell Willis Falkuhns 14/07 – KEEPER
A star for years to come. Probably won’t match last year’s #’s, he was bad down the stretch, but still 3.3, 1.25 could be reached.

Andy Pettitte Cappers 16/07 – KEEPER
I didn’t like his Ratio history and Injury History. Man he was great. 15 wins, 2.48, 1.056. A steal. Probably will go back to 3.5, 1.25 #’s.

Brandon Webb PECK 14/07 – KEEPER
solid #’s, 14-12, 229 IP, 3.54 – 1.26. Got to keep him, though I can’t say I like the Diamondbacks hitting or defense behind him

3RD TIER

Zach Duke – AVAILABLE
Wow, what a start as a rookie. 8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 Whip in 84 inning, 14 starts. #’s were also good in 108 innings, 16 starts in AAA: 2.92, 1.21. He looks for real, but don’t expect the same wins with Pitt in a full season, but ERA and whip could be sub 3.00 and 1.2. Worth $15-20

Kerry Wood – AVAILABLE
He’s 28 going on 33 years old. He was a star when healthy until 2003. Had 140 innings in 2004 and only 66 innings in 2005. He had knee surgery last month, so he’s probably not back until May. He’s already pitching now. He could easily get 3.5, 1.2 #’s, but in how many innings. There’s also talk he could be a closer in the future to minimize his innings, and he has closer stuff. He could be any price, depending on fear of his injury. He could be $12-15 or bid up to $20. Interesting at the lower range.

Derek Lowe Busch 13/07 – PROBABLE KEEPER
Not a stud, but solid year. 222 innings, 3.61, 1.25, 12 wins. And LA will be better, both offense and in bullpen

Aaron Harang Busch 1/06 – KEEPER
Hard to complain about 211 innings, 11 wins, 3.83, 1.27 in Cinci. Jeff likes him, but I don’t see him being extended

Brad Penny Bums 15/07 – PROBABLE KEEPER
has pitched solidly since return from DL, but LA just doesn’t get wins for him. Still worth his $$

4TH TIER

Chris Young - AVAILABLE
He’s 26, and was in Texas, which is a big time hitter’s park. He was 12-7, 31 starts, 165 innings, 137 K, 4.26, 1.26. He’s now in a pitcher’s park in SD. This should lower his ERA to sub 4.0, possibly to 3.5-3.7 with Whip around 1.2. He could be $8 on last years #’s or $15 on youth and hype. I like him and could be good value under $15.

Roger Clemens – Won’t be available for draft.Not going to be on an opening day roster, so not worth drafting and having to throw him back.

John Lieber Bats 14/07 – BORDERLINE KEEPER
He had 17 wins, 218 inning, 4.20, 1.21 #’s in Phili. He was better after All Star Game, with 3.28, 1.03 #’s. At $14 he’s certainly keepable, with potential to have sub 4.0 ERA and 1.2 #’s. If returns, will go for the same $12-15.

Doug Davis Lickers 12/07 – SHOULD BE KEEPER
Worth every penny, 11 wins, 222 innings, 208 K, 3.84, 1.30 are all solid #’s for the price. And the Lickers don’t have much else to keep

John Patterson Hobo 2/07 – KEEPER
Too many of us have owned him in the past to like him at the draft, but he’s finally showed he did really have major league stuff: 2.74/1.19, we’ll see if it’s real. He’s certainly cheap

Noah Lowry Pounders 11/07 – KEEPER
a tale of 2 half-seasons. ERA 5.07 in 1st half, then ended up with 13 wins and 3.78 ERA for season. August was 5-0 with 0.69 ERA. Unbelievable.

Brett Myers Cappers 2/07 - KEEPER
George was mad he didn’t take Ohka at draft instead of him, but 12 Wins, 3.63/1.222 later, he had a bargain.

Matt Morris Rip 10/07 - KEEPER
Now in SF. He had a great recovery year. SF is good, but not as good as StLouis. Still should be keeper.

5TH TIER

John Thomson Pounders 15/07 - PROBABLY AVAILABLE
He had a breakout year in 2004, with 3.72, 1.32, which drove him to $15 price. He started out 3-2 with 3.42 last year, then tore a finger tendon and never returned to form. 99 inning, 4.47, 1.41. Career #’s were in Colorado and Texas, so you can’t really use them, but were 4.65, 1.3. So to expect 3.72, 1.32 in an uninjured Atlanta season, isn’t unrealistic. His price will drop though to $8-10. He’d be interesting at that price, but not at $13-15.

Odalis Perez Any9 20/07 - AVAILABLE
He was hurt last year and never did return to form. So, value should drop after 7 Wins, 4.56, 1.26 year. His career has been up and down every other year with ERA 3.25 or 4.5, but Whip is 1.25 or less. LA should be good team, so if healthy he could have 15 wins, sub 4.0 and 1.2 #. Could drop to $12-15 or less, and would be good risk at that price.

Tom Glavine Rip 10/06 - BORDERLINE KEEPER
He’s old guy, but had solid year in NY. Should have better wins and bullpen protection after all the pickups by the Mets. He’s not really tradable unless he’s super hot, so he’s better for a team with good keeper list. Not for a team with nothing, as he could be good, but no upside.

Livan Hernandez Licker 9/07 - BORDERLINE KEEPER
He keeps surprising us, sometimes good and others bad. He says he’s 31 years old, give or take 10 years. Still he was 15 Wins, 246 Innings, 3.98 ERA last year, but 1.43 Whip is a killer. Lickers don’t have much, so he’s easily keepable at $9, but unless Whip is better and he can get 15 wins again, he could hurt more then help. I’d pass unless cheaper if he’s returned to draft.

Jason Marquis Licker 13/07 - BORDERLINE KEEPER
He’s 27, an inning eater on great team, but #’s dropped to 4.13 and 1.33 in 207 innings. He’s a free agent after the season, so long term, likely elsewhere, with Anthony Reyes poised to take his spot. Would go for same, not worth more.

Jeff Suppan
Being in St.Louis has been perfect for him, with 16 wins x 2 years. He had a career year for ERA last year with 3.57, and was 4.16 and 4.19 the previous 2 years (also his best at the time). His Whip is 1.38 (consistent past 5 years). Expect him to be 15 wins, 4.00 ERA, 1.38 Whip this year. He’d probably be $3-5 elsewhere, but in St. Louis he’ll get the wins to drive him up to $7-10. The #’s probably aren’t worth that price, only the wins. Would be solid in the $5-8 range.

Jae Weong Seo Peck 5/07X – Borderline Keeper
Now the #5 starter for Dodgers. Nice stats: 8-2, 2.59 ERA, 1.11 Whip. LA is good pitcher park. Lineup should be good behind him also for runs and bullpen. As a #5, his price will be down, but price could go up to $5-7, just due to his #’s last year. He’s definitely of interest at that price, especially if ends up at $3-5.

Chris Capuano Hobo 9/07 – KEEPER
Went full price at the time, but easily paid for himself. 16 wins on Milwaukee with 3.6 ERA, are solid, though 1.32 Ratio isn’t studly. Still solid keeper with great stuff.

Oliver Perez Busch 3/06 – KEEPER
A true bust last year with his shoulder problems. Could be kept on potential and his 2004 stats, as he’s cheap with upside. If returns to draft, could drop to $5-8, but 2004 #’s could raise him to $12. He’d be worth the low spot, not the risk at the upper price.

Matt Cain Bats 5/07F – KEEPER
He’s a future star, but rookie years are always a crap shoot. Still worth the gamble, especially with Barry back

6TH TIER

Greg Maddux Busch 16/07 – AVAILABLE
His #’s have been worse past 3 yeas from his career, but 4.24, 1.22 last year isn’t terrible. He should easily keep around the same # or better, 4.05, 1.20, 15 wins. Worth $7-10, not more for a 39 year old, near the end of his career.

Jorge Sosa
He was terrible in Tampa Bay, but he shined under Leo Mazzone last year (but Leo is gone). He’ll be the #3 or #4 starter in Atlanta. He was 2.55, 1.39 last year, all killing his previous best #’s. You can’t expect a 2.55 ERA again, but 3.5, 1.39 with 15 wins would certainly be doable, but so could a reverting to 4.6, 1.5 #’s. He’ll go for $8-12 on last year’s #’s, but would be worth the rist at the lower end, probably not the upper end of the value.

Orlando Hernandez
He was probably the worst of the White Sox pitchers last year at 5.12, 1.46 in 128 innings, both career worst. He was much better in 2002 and 2004 with NY Yankees, but hurt in 2003. I don’t see Arizona as a great team, so can’t expect more then 10-12 wins with 4.0-4.2 ERA, 1.25+ Whip would be his upside, and he could really have a downside. Worth around $5-6 if upside reached, really more of a $3-5 guy. Remember he’s 36 + years old.

David Bush Milw
He was traded from Toronto for Lyle Overbay. He’s like Oliver Perez and Willis who had big rookie years, then slumped, so has the talent to be good. In 2004, he had 16 starts, 98 innings, 3.69 ERA, 1.23 Whip. He slumped in 2005 some. In 10 starts early, he got beat up by Red Sox 3 times enroute to 4.89 ERA, but was 3.40 without the 3 Boston games and went back to AAA. After All Star Game, he was 5-6, 4.23, 1.23. Milwaukee is a bad park, but Sheets, Davis, and Capuano have all done well recently. Bush could be #5 or #6 starter, but hard to believe he won’t beat out Helling. He could be a break out guy with sub 4.0 ERA, 1.25 Whip. He’ll be $1-5, depending on whether declared starter or not. Has upside.

Miguel Batista
He’s 35, and back in Arizona where he had his best years 2001-2003. he was bad in Toronto and was changed to a closer last year with ugly #’s. The time of him having sub 4 ERA is likely gone. A good year would be 9-10 wins, 4.2 ERA, 1.35 whip. He’s a $2-3 guy, who could be $1 or $5.

Brett Tomko Lickers 10/07
His only sub 4.0 ERA was in 1997 and sub 1.33 whip was 1997 and 98. He’ll be helped being in LA, so could get 10-12 wins, 4.2 ERA, 1.35 Whip, better would unrealistic. He’s a $2-4 player, on someone else’s team.

Woody Williams Bums 7/07 – PROBABLE AVAILABLE
He’s 39, and looking it, with ERA and Whip each climbing every year for past 4 years. Even bad in SD pitcher’s park. He was studly in 2002 if only 102 innings. Otherwise 4.5 ERA, 1.3+ Whip is as good as could hope, and could be much worse. Not worth chasing. He could be $1-3 based on stats or $5-7 based on name

Jerome Williams
After being traded to Chicago, he went 6-8, 3.91, and he’s only 24. The key will be how much he starts. Prior and Wood are hurt, Wade Miller is hurt. So, he’ll likely start out in the rotation, but could be dropped at any time. If he got 25-30 starts, he has the talent to get 10-15 wins, 3.8-4.2 ERA, 1.29 whip. He’ll only go $2-5, and could be only $1-2. He’s an interesting risk

Horacio Ramirez
He looked great in his 60 innings in 2004. In 2003 and 2005 with 29 and 32 starts, he did get 11 and 12 wins, but ERA was 4.00/4.63, and 1.29 Whip both. He’ll be #5 starter, would be lucky to be 4.2, 1.39 with 10 wins. Not worth the #’s for the wins. Will go $2-5.

Tomo Ohka Bats 1/07 – Could be Kept due to $1 only
He either gets low 3.3-3.4 or 4-4.2 ERA’s, and 1.39 Whip. That was in good parks, which Milwaukee isn’t. Expect him to be worse then last year, so 4.2+, 1.39, 8-10 wins. He’ll be $1-2. I’d rather take a chance on David Bush.

Brandon Claussen Bums 1/07 – Doubt makes Bums cut
It’s hard to like anyone pitching in Cinci, and his #’s are below average, for season 4.11/1.37, but was better after all star game. So, could be worth the $1 for a team without enough keepers. Will be $1 again. There's some talk about him being a closer in the future

Anthony Reyes Pounders Farm – Keeper, he’s a Cardinal
He’s losing the starting job now to Sir Sidney Ponson, but he is a star in the making. If he’s in AAA or declared he’s a starter, he’ll be a Pounder. But, does Kevin keep him if he’s in the bullpen? If thrown back, he’s got huge future upside. He’ll eventually replace Marquis or Suppan (both in last year of contract) or Sir Sid (who sucks). If returns to draft, will be $3-5 on potential.

The Rest of the Pack

Sir Sidney Ponson (aka: Sir Drinkalot)
He’s in St. Louis, which helps. But he was ugly since the Giants playoffs in 2003. He’ll be better, but let someone else pay the $2-3. He looks like he’d fit on the 300 Pounders: Both for his weight and he’s a Cardinal

Paul Maholm Pitt
He broke his orbit in 2004, but looked good in Minors and Majors last year. He came up in August, 6 starts, 41 innings, 2.18 ERA, 1.16 Whip, 26 K. In minors AA/AAA, he was 3.35, 1.3 guy. Has the potential to be good, 3.8-4.1, 1.3 and will be only $2-4. Might be a guy to risk on.

Jason Vargas Bat 7/07X
He tore up the minorsA/AA, then came up to Florida and in 74 innings, 59 K, 4.03, 1.38. He should be better as he learns, but it’s on the job training on a bad team. He could be a future star, but not likely this year. Will be $2-3 with upside and downside risks

Steve Trachsel
He was out last year with injury. He was pretty good 2002-2004: ERA’s 3.38, 3.78, 4.00 (all increased, but still good), but Whip’s were 1.38,1.31, 1.41. He’ll be cheap, so could be worth the $1-3.

Wade Miller CHC
He’s been hurt for 2 years, getting 88 and 92 innings past 2 years. If he could be healthy, he’d be an interesting risk at cheap price. He was really good in Houston from 2001-2004 when healthy. Could be only $1

Ryan Madson
Looked like closer of future, but now he’s #3 starter. He could be sub 4.0 and 1.2, but we have no real track record to go from. He’s been hyped as a $6-8 guy. We’ll see

Kyle Davies Rip 5/07F
Currently #6 Atlanta starter. Will be good in future, but probably starts in the bullpen

Aaron Heilman Doyle 5/07X - AVAILABLE
He could be the Mets #5 starter and was really good last year in relief and starting. He was a star in 2nd half: 0.68 ERA, 45 K in 40 innings. Those are certainly #’s worth taking a risk on, with a young guy, with good stuff and upside. $3-6.

Brandon Backe Lickers 2/07
He didn’t show the stuff he had in 2004 playoffs. He’s only a $1-2 player at best.

Cory Lidle
When your #’s improved the last 3 years, and still you’re at 4.53/1.35, that’s not a guy you want. $0-1.

Victor Zambrano
The wrong Zambrano, will get 12 wins, 4.3, 1.48 or worse #’s

Pedro Astacio and Ramon Ortiz Hobo 5/07X - Wash
Pedro’s #’s have sucked since 1996 and Ramon was only good in 2002, no reason to expect anything better.

Eric Milton
He was terrible last year, but he’s not better then a 4.7, 1.35 pitcher anyway, so don’t even think of it

Sergio Mitre, Brian Moehler - Fla
They’ll be ugly in Florida this year

Shawn Estes
Why do teams keep starting him? He’s not been sub 4.0 or sub 1.43 since 1997, and mostly around 4.8-5.8 and 1.6. Just say no.

Glendon Rusch
A fill-in starter, long reliever. Not worth the $1 as not much upside

Tony Armas Jr Cappers 2/07
Another National getting worse yearly

Brian Lawrence
Out for the year with shoulder problems

Jose Lima
Just say no

Russ Ortiz
Dusty should have left him the playoff game and we’d be world champs. As for 2006, he’s getting worse by the year, no reason to expect a reversal of fortune

Kip Wells
Had a blood clot removed, so will be out up to 2 months. He was really bad in 2004-2005 after career years in 2002-2003.

Mike Hampton Bums 3/07
When healthy he’s been like the Hampton pre-Colorado. But, can he stay healthy. At $3, he’s a safe play.

Brad Hennessey
His #’s sucked. One of the Giant Homers might try him at $1, but why?

Robinson Tejeda
He looked good down the stretch last year. He could be #5 starter or middle relief. He’d be worthy of $1 shot.

Justin Nippert Ariz
Likely going to AAA, but was solid in AA, and could make the majors this year with big future upside

Written by Dr. Tailgate