The New Guys Looking Up

BUSCH LEAGUERS:

LOST – Roberto Hernandez, Andy Marte, DeAngelo Jimenez

Has good keepers, but not much extra value. Will need to get SB’s, and closer. Has good start at starting pitchers, so Jeff will use his magic and get cheap starters and spend his money on a closer and hitting.

7 Players - $68

Probable Keepers:
1) Garrett Atkins 3B 14-07 – an everyday Rockie is hard to pass on, but only had 13 HR, but did get 87 RBI and hit .287. He’s at value and has upside to hit .300 and more HR’s 2
) Adam Everett SS 6-06 – only hit .248, but his 11 HR – 21 SB’s easily were worth his money
3) Brad Hawpe OF 14-07 – you have like a starting Rockie OF’er. Wasn’t great last year, hitting .262, 9 HR in 305 AB. Has 20 HR power and better BAve potential. But, could lose time to Ryan Shealy. Still should be keeper at $14
4) R. Langerhans OF 3-07 – He’ll at least be a platoon left fielder with Kelly Johnson or Matt Diaz. Should get 300+ AB’s, so will be worth $3
5) Aaron Harang P 1-06 – hard to complain about 211 innings, 11 wins, 3.83, 1.27 in Cinci. Jeff likes him, but I don’t see him being extended
6) Derek Lowe P 13-07 – not a stud, but solid year. 222 innings, 3.61, 1.25, 12 wins. And LA will be better, both offense and in bullpen
7) Ben Sheets P 17-06C – when not hurt last year, he pitched great. 10 wins, 3.33, 1.07 in 156 innings. Jeff’s not going to buy him out

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Ricky Ledee OF 2-07 – with all the injuries in LA, he’ll get to play some. Is good for 7-10 HR if gets 200-250 AB’s
2) Bobby Abreu OF 40-06 – His #’s crashed in second half – 6 HR, 10 SB enroute to 24 HR and 31 SB. He could rebound, but isn’t a keeper at $40 again
3) Armando Benitez P 30-06 – he’s at value and should earn it. Jeff may keep, or could throw him back as so many closers available, there’s no real upside to keep
4) Oliver Perez P 3-06 – a true bust last year with his shoulder problems. Could be kept on potential and his 2004 stats, as he’s cheap

BATS:

LOST – Mackowiak, Javier Vazquez Has a good start on HR and SB’s with 4 infielders. Has 2 closers. Will need starting pitching and OF’ers to complete the team.

9 Players - $129

Probable Keepers:
1) Derrek Lee 1B 34-06 – No brainer. Had his career year: .335, 46 HR, 107 RBI, 15 SB. Doesn’t matter if won’t happen again, still will be worth the money
2) Todd Walker 2B 9-06 – still starting 2B in Chicago, so unless Jerry Hairston is declared the starter, should be worth keeping. Had 12 HR, .305 last year
3) Jimmy Rollins SS 27-06 – SB’s are tough to get. He’s probably extendable to $32 after .290, 12 HR, 41 SB season
4) Victor Diaz OF 3-07 – We laughed at Mackowiak in 2004. We laughed at Diaz, but he got 280 AB’s and made the most of it 12 HR, 6 SB.
5) Aramis Ramirez 3B 29-06 – Solid year .302, 31 HR, 92 RBI. Worth keeping, but he’s at his value, as he gets 0 SB
6) Matt Cain P 5-07F – He’s a future star, but rookie years are always a crap shoot. Still worth the gamble, especially with Barry back
7) Brian Fuentes P 10-07 – lucked into Jeff dropping Fuentes, then he started to close games. And he was studly. 31 Sv, 2.91, 1.25, 91 K in 74 innings. Can he keep those #’s in Colorado. Will he be looking over his shoulder at Jose Mesa (not)?
8) Mike Gonzalez P 12-07 – the one future closer to actually be given the job this year. And with Salomon Torres and Marte setting him up, he should have a good chance to get some leads actually into the 9th inning

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Tomo Ohka P 1-07 – Now in Milwaukee, will be in the rotation. That could be good or bad. He’s going from good pitcher park to a hitter’s park. But, $1 might be worth the risk: 180 inning, 4.04, 1.35
2) John Lieber P 14-07 – At full value, 218 inning, 4.20, 1.21, 17 wins are OK, but ERA could hurt. Phili doesn’t look as good as in the past to get those wins. 3
) Jason LaRue C 7-07 – resigned to be the starter, but is at value. 14 HR, .260 are OK. But, also has Javier Valentin as backup who had great year also.
4) Tim Hudson P 33-07 – Was OK, but not worth 33. Still will go around $30. 14 Wins, 3.52, 1.35 aren’t earth shattering for that price

ANY 9

LOST – Luis Castillo, Vincente Padilla, Alfonseca More like Any 2 or Any 3. Will have lots of money to spend and enforce bidding.

2 Players - $38 or 3 Players - $55 with Vizquel.

Probable Keepers:
1) Jeff Kent 2B 25-07 – now the #2 power hitting 2B in NL (after Soriano), so good starting point: .289, 29 HR, 105 RBI
2) Craig Biggio 2B 13-06 – he’s not playing his age (40), with .264, 26 HR, 11 SB last year. Someday he’ll hit the wall, and it could happen at any time (just ask Sammy Sosa)
3) Omar Vizquel SS 17-07 – probably won’t keep, so look for him to be traded to one of the SF homers after 24 SB year

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Adam Dunn 1B/OF 39-07 – did get the HR’s (40) and RBI (101) as expected, but BAve .247 sucked, and stopped stealing, only 4 SB. Will go for the same, but not worth keeping on chance price drops due to BAve
2) Bobby Hill 3B 2-07 – if was 2B, he might be worth the risk that Bellhorn and Barfield can’t hit. Unfortunately, he can’t either
3) Brazoban P 5-06X – Was unhittable in 2004, but not able to cash in as the closer. Now is the #3 guy, so should have chance to get good #’s, but no saves. Not keepable now
4) Johnny Estrada C 11-06 – After great start in 2004, had disappointing year with only .261, 4 HR year. Value has dropped, not keeper now
5) Odalis Perez P 20-07 – He was hurt last year and never did return to form. So, value should drop after 7 Wins, 4.56, 1.26 year.

POUNDERS:

LOST – Lyle Overbay, Corey Patterson, JT Snow, Troy Glaus, Jeff Weaver A great Pitching staff with 3 front line starters (if Lowry is like 2nd half) and 2 Closers. Can spend almost all his money on hitters.

6 Players - $89

Probable Keepers:
1) Carlos Lee OF 38-07 – He was full priced, but performed. The BAve dropped to .265 in 1st year in NL, but could easily rise back to .290. And the rest was as usual with 31 HR, 114 RBI, 13 SB. I know, he’s no Corey $39 Patterson, but who is.
2) Carlos Zambrano P 8-06C – 3rd great year, and Whip has improved to .115, with 14 Wins and 3.26 ERA and 200 K’s is a true #1 pitcher
3) Mark Mulder P 26-07 – turned out to be the ex-A’s pitcher to have, 16 Wins, 205 inning, 3.64, 1.38 and he’s on best team in NL, so should do as well.
4) Noah Lowry P 11-07 – a tale of 2 half-seasons. ERA 5.07 in 1st half, then ended up with 13 wins and 3.78 ERA for season. August was 5-0 with 0.69 ERA. Unbelievable.
5) Jose Valverde P 4-07 – An injury waiting to happen, but until then, he’s the closer. Brandon Lyon is back, but his #’s sucked, probably due to his injury though.
6) Derek Turnbow P 2-07 – he was a stud, after Brewers gave up on Mike Adams early. His #’s look like he has real stuff, if can continue the good control.

Other Possible Keepers:
1) LoDuca C 14-06 – Not worth the price after BAve dropped to .283, and only 6 HR’s.
2) Chipper Jones 3B 33-06 – He was hurt, so only 358 AB’s, still he did have 21 HR, 72 RBI, .296 year. Would be worth the price if stays healthy. But, won’t go more, and would better off having new 08 contract

LICKERS:

LOST – Nevin, Loaiza, Jim Thome After having no keepers and lots of money last year, will start with

6 Players - $110, so not the spending potential. The players are all near value, but are solid players to start with. And has SB’s, so can spend elsewhere.

Probable Keepers:
1) Carlos Delgado 1B 34-07 – went full price, but is worth it as a true 3 category guy: .301, 33 HR, 115 RBI. Should be similar in NY.
2) Furcal SS 30-07 – Like Rollins, you’ve got to spend for SB’s and he’s a good one. .284 – 12 HR – 46 SB last year
3) Dave Roberts OF 24-07 – He was hurt, only got 411 AB. Didn’t get as many steals as expected, but 23 SB’s is still good, but 12 CS isn’t good. He added 8 HR with .275 BAve. He’s at value, but worth keeping as a SB guy.
4) Doug Davis P 12-07 – Worth every penny, 11 wins, 222 innings, 208 K, 3.84, 1.30 are all solid #’s for the price
5) Blaine Boyer P 5-07X – he’s currently the #2 behind Reitsma in Atlanta, so worth the gamble that he could be the closer at any point
6) Eric Reed Farm – He’s currently the starting CF’er, so worth keeping. Still would be cheap if Florida gets someone else

Other Possible Keepers:
1) Roger Clemens P 24-07 – Not going to be on an opening day roster, so won’t be keepable
2) Livan Hernandez P 9-07 – He keeps surprising us, sometimes good and others bad. He says he’s 31 years old, give or take 10 years. Still he was 15 Wins, 246 Innings, 3.98 ERA last year, but 1.43 Whip is a killer
3) Marquis P 13-07 – inning eater on great team, but #’s dropped to 4.13 and 1.33 in 207 innings. Would go for same, not worth more.
4) Brandon Backe P 2-07 – didn’t show the stuff he had in 2004 playoffs. He’s only a $1-2 player at best anyway.Spivey 2B 10-07 – if is given the 2B job, he’d be keepable. He’ll get pitches to hit in that lineup in StLouis. BAve .232 was bad, but in 259 AB, had 7 HR

Written by Dr. Tailgate