Around the Corner

We found out last year it’s important to know the positions of scarcity and those that have interchangeable parts. I will include players who qualify in multiple positions at each position. I will also include players expected to be kept, to rank them in case they aren’t kept. The position of most scarcity I think will actually be SS. There are a lot of SS’s, but not at the high level. I will start with the Corners.

FIRST BASE:

This is a deep position with available top level players and lots of decent players who will be mid range or cheap. I will start with the likely available guys, then the likely keepers in each Tier.

TOP TIER STARS:
1) Albert Pujols – will be $50 doesn’t get any better, .330, 41 HR, 129 RBI, 16 SB.
2) Adam Dunn – 1B/OF - ANY 9 - $39/07 Will go for $30-35. Did have 40 HR – 107 RBI. But, he’s stopped stealing bases (only 4) and BAve dropped to .247. Career high was .266, otherwise never above .249. This should drop his value.
3) Todd Helton - ?$35+ He dropped in all his stats, though still did hit .320, but this was worst since 1998. He only had 20 HR – 79 RBI. He has had lower #’s for past 4 years actually. He had 30-33 HR, 96-117 RBI previous 3 years, which are great. But, this was down from 2 prior star years: 42/49 HR, 147/146 RBI, which will still drive his price. Expect him to return to 30+ HR – 100 RBI - .330 though.
4) Derrek Lee – BATS, $34 /06 – KEEPER Career year. Won’t repeat, but still stud: .290, 35-40 HR, 100 RBI, 12 SB
5) Carlos Delgado – Lickers, $34/07 – Probable Keeper Consistent 32+ HR – 100+ RBI since 1997. BAve goes up or down: .270 or .300. Should have similar #’s with NY Mets.
6) Lance Berkman – Cappers, $28/07, 1B/OF – Probable Keeper Off year due to injury and only 468 AB, but still had 24 HR, 82 RBI. Should return to 30 HR, 100 RBI, .295-300 with full year
7) Ryan Howard – Doyle, $5/07F – KEEPER No brainer keeper for years to come.

2ND TIER
8) Chad Tracy – BUMS 5/6F - KEEPER He’ll be starting 3B, and will get .300, 20 HR with no competition for AB’s
9) Adam LaRoche – BUMS 9/06 – KEEPER Julio Franco’s gone, so should get 500+ AB now. 20+ HR, .275

3RD TIER
10) Nick Johnson – BUMS $15/07 – Doesn’t make the cut for Bums Was injured, so didn’t get full AB’s. Look for 15-20 HR, .280, 75 RBI. Worth $15, but not huge upside
11) Sean Casey – Expect .300+ Bave, but wouldn’t expect more then 10-15 HR, 75 RBI in Pitt. Always gets overpriced. Really shouldn’t be more then $15
12) Tony Clark – Cappers $1/07 - KEEPER Won’t hit .304 – 30 HR again, but still a studly value at $1
13) Conor Jackson – Rips $5/F – KEEPER He’ll have the starting 1B job with Clark getting some of his AB’s. Still has huge upside and obvious keeper
14) Prince Fielder – Falkuhns - $5/F – KEEPER Starting 1B job in Milwaukee, future star
15) Mike Jacobs – Falkuhns - $6/07X – KEEPER Great pickup by Larry.net. Now the starting 1B or at worst platoon 1B in Florida. Had 11 HR in 100 AB, so should be good for 20+ HR in full season.

4th TIER
16) Jeff Bagwell – Doyle $24 – not keeper Houston is trying to declare him disabled. So, may not even play this year. Would be interesting to see where he lands or if he plays. Could be cheap.
17) Lance Niekro Starting 1B, though will lose some AB’s to Sweeney. Still, had 12 HR in 278 AB, so has 20 HR potential, and hitting behind Barry, Alou, and Feliz will get RBI’s. BAve could be anything .250-.285. Could be $8-12, depending on all the Giant homers.
18) Xavier Nady – Lickers $10/07 Looks to be starting or platoon OF with Mets. Figure 10-12 HR, .265, 50 RBI. Not the same hype as last year. Could be $5-8.
19) Hee Seop Choi – Rips $10/07 – not keeper Had 15 HR, but has no job. Could get 10 HR with .260 if gets 250 AB’s. Hard to see him getting them though, unless Nomar goes to OF. Should be cheap $5

5th TIER – CHEAP GUYS
20) Ryan Shealy Future 1B in Colorado and may get some AB’s in OF. He can hit, is big guy. Could be 10 HR in limited AB’s in Colorado, and 20-25 HR if had a job. Could be $2-3 21) Olmedo Saenz LA He had 15 HR in 319 AB last year, but like Choi, he won’t play. But, could be productive when does play. Should be $1-3
22) Mike Lamb He’s gotten 14 and 12 HR in 278/322 AB’s last 2 years in Houston. He plays everywhere and will probably get the 250 AB’s again backing everyone up again. Worth $2-5
23) Adrian Gonzalez SD Traded from Texas. He’ll back up Klesko and could be 15 HR, .290-.300 hitter if got to start. Worth $1-3 on upside alone
24) Scott Hatteberg Cin He’ll have more value, if he gets to play catcher. Otherwise, he’ll be behind Dunn. Would be .260 -7 HR guy if gets to play some. Nothing special. Only worth $1-2
25) Mark Sweeney Depends on whether he gets to play at all, either platoon or if Niekro flops. Look for 150 AB with 7+ HR, .270. Worth $1-2, maybe more if you have Niekro and want protection
26) Robert Fick Wash He qualifies as a catcher. So, no reason to draft at 1B, unless you have 2 catchers and want depth. He’s not worth it at 1B. There’s better $1 guys.
27) Daryle Ward Wash He has 10-12 HR power, .265 Bave if gets 300+ AB’s. Only will get if Nick Johnson gets hurt. Only $1-2.
28) Brad Eldred Pitt Back up to Casey, but he has power. Had 12 HR in 190 AB, but .221 is real. Will get some chances to play, but are the 10 HR in 200 AB, worth the BAve. For $1-2, maybe.
29) Julio Franco NYMET He’s older the I am and still playing. Won’t get much more then pinch hitting unless Delgado gets hurt. $1 if drafted

THIRD BASE: Though Larry Dot Net keeps saying there aren’t enough 3Bmen, there’s actually more depth then there has been in the past few years.

TOP TIER
1) Miguel Cabrera – Falkuhns $15/06C – Keeper Star, but stats may not be as good without any other players in Florida
2) David Wright – Doyle 5/06F – Will be Extended Star, will be better with all the Mets additions
3) Scott Rolen If comes back from injury, could return to 30 HR, 100+ RBI, .280 glory days. He gets AB’s with that lineup. He could slip due to the injury, still could go $25-30
4) Morgan Ensberg Bats should have extended him. Had the career year we thought could happen when we drafted him. After 36 HR, 101 RBI, .283 year, could be $25+ or less if people don’t believe it
5) Chipper Jones Pounders $33/06 – doubt kept If healthy could easily be back to 25-30 HR, 100 RBI, .280 year. Will go around same price at $28-30
6) Aramis Ramirez – Bats $29/06 – probable keeper Could be thrown back, but after .302, 31 HR, 92 RBI, he earns his money. If thrown back will be $30

2ND TIER
7) Nomar Garciaparra – 3B/SS He’ll be 1B and maybe OF during season also. Has become an injury risk with only 230 AB last year and 550 over past 2 years. If he could ever stay healthy, he could be 20 HR, 80 RBI, .290+ hitter. Will be $20+. Not worth the risk
8) Joe Randa – Falkuhns $13/07 – keepable, may not make the cut Had good year: .276, 17 HR, 71 RBI, and is now with Pitt. Could match those #’s. Would go $13-15, depending on the demand for 3B.
9) Bill Hall – Rips $2/06 – KEEPER, extendable, 2B/SS/3B Who’d have thought it, but he’s a stud. .291, 17 HR, 18 SB, 69 RBI., and qualifies everywhere. Easily $15-20 value
10) Pedro Feliz – 3B/OF, Bums $10/06 - KEEPER Well he’s the everyday 3B, and in that lineup should get 20+ HR, 75 RBI. Bave crashed in second half, so can’t expect better then .260. Still he’s a $15 player

3RD TIER: Potential Young and Old
11) Edwin Encarnacion – Cappers $5/F – KEEPER It’s his job now, and 20-25 HR, .265 year, in Cinci is sure possible. He’d be $15 in the draft
12) Garrett Atkins – Busch $14/07 – At value, could be kept He was OK last year, but not worth his cost. Still, he’s in Colorado and is the starter, so could easily improve on rookie year to 15+ HR, 90 RBI, .290. Not bad, worth $10-15. Remember, he’s not the future star here, Ian Stewart should be up in 2007 to take the job.
13) Vinny Castilla – Cappers $6/06C – KEEPER vs BUYOUT? Didn’t live up to previous stats in Washington, 12 HR, 66 RBI, .253. He’s now in SD, which isn’t much better to hit in. So, expect the same 10-15 HR, 70 RBI. He’ll go $5-10.
14) Corey Koskie Starting 3B in Milwaukee, though will lose AB’s to Bill Hall. He’s an injury waiting to happen, hasn’t had 490 AB since 2002, but their usually productive ones. 2004: 422 AB, 25 HR, 9 SB. I don’t see him getting 25 HR again, but he could get 15 HR, 8-10 SB in 425 AB. Worth $15-17.
15) Bill Mueller He’s always been decent hitter, but won’t get batting crown like 2003. Figure .295 with 10 HR and 70 RBI similar to past 2 years. Worth $8-10.
16) Ryan Zimmerman Nats How did we miss a jew on our prospect list. It’s his job without Vinny there. He’ll hit for average, but isn’t a power guy. He looks more like a doubles guy, so as he gets better, might become a HR guy. Could be .310, 10-15 HR guy with future upside. Who knows what he’ll go for, probably $10 range

4TH TIER – The rest of the bunch
17) David Bell – Pecklers $4/06 – not keeping #’s dropped last year, but if healthy could be 10+ HR, .260, but no big upside. He’ll go same range, $3-6
18) Alex Cintron – 2B/SS/3B Flexible, and will get 350 AB’s as utility. He was pretty good last year: .273, 8 HR, 48 RBI. Not studly, but solid for $1-3 guy who’ll play everywhere
19) Abraham Nunez Phili – 2B/SS/3B He’s the guy who was in StL last year. He’s a bench guy, but could get more play as he’s behind Bell. Hit .285 with 5 HR in 421 AB, so no real power. He’s a $1-2 fill in due to flexibility.
20) Wes Helms Hasn’t done much since had his career year for us in 2003. He’ll backup Jacobs and Cabrera, so could get 200 AB. Still that only means 5 or so HR. So, only worth $1.
21) Jose Valentin NY Met He won’t get much play behind Wright and Reyes. He had 35-30 HR from 2000-2004 with bad Bave. Then he crashed in 2005 in LA to 2 HR in 147 AB. If gets AB’s he’ll get some HR’s, but will kill the Bave. Worth $1-3.
22) Freddy Sanchez Pit – 2B/3B He’ll be utility and get 300+ AB’s. But, other then hitting .290, he won’t help at all with HR or SB’s. Worth only $1-2.
23) Oscar Robles LAD This team is deep with infielders, and he’s low on the depth chart. He’ll drop further when Isturis returns. Not worth drafting.
24) Jeff Baker COL He should change his name to Jeff Brittain, as he basically sucked. He had the chance to be the starting 3B in Col, but he blew it. He’ll only play much if Atkins gets hurt. Worth $1-2, as he’s a Rockie.
25) Wilson Betemit Atl Not much upside being behind Chipper unless he gets hurt. Betemit did hit .300 with 4 HR in 246 AB’s. He’s worth $1, with upside if gets any AB’s
26) Willy Aybar LAD Probably goes to AAA, as there’s no place for him. Not worth more then $1 on potential only.
27) Geoff Blum SD – 2B/SS/3B He won’t get as many AB’s in SD, but could get 250 AB, with 5-8 HR, but crappy BAve. Will go $0-2, but not worth it due to the Bave.
28) Bobby Hill SD Behind Barfield and Bellhorn at 2B, so not going to get AB’s. And he can’t hit even with those AB’s. Worth $0.

So, lots of depth at both positions, with some quality at the top and lower levels.

Written by Dr. Tailgate