Rippin' the Rips

This piece was written by both of us.

Boof Brittain called me last night to report on his recent login in at Larry Dot Net (aka Clavin Dot Com). Larry called to tell him that he had been hornswaggled by Mr. Leaguer in the Hall for Oswalt deal.

I told Boof that the same Larry Dot Net had once told me that I hosed the Elder Barry (I think it was him) when I traded him Luis Gonzalez at 17 and Felix Rodriguez at about 3 for Dave Veres. Gonzalez went on to hit 56 homers that year, Rodriguez won 10 games and was lights out for the Giants, and Veres was an ex-closer before the all-star break. So maybe hearing Larry’s negative opinion was a good thing.

In the course of the conversation, we discussed George’s great keeper list. He insisted that with a $1 Tony Clark, George should trade for Conor Jackson. I said he didn’t have anything worth giving up for a promising part time player. Clearly Boof took that as a challenge, and about 15 minutes later we got the next trade email – Jackson for Smoltz.

I imagine the conversation went something like this:

Boof – Interested in Conor Jackson?

George – Maybe.

Boof – How about Smoltz?

George – Um…ok.

Except, he didn’t say “Um.”

As to him not having anyone worth trading, well, I guess I was wrong. I started to do the starting pitching list when I saw the second trade. The guys at the top available will be Pedro, Mark Prior, Tim Hudson, Jason Schmidt, Zach Duke, Kerry Wood, and maybe Mark Mulder. Everyone has questions, most coming back from injury or Zach going to his sophomore slump. Mark obviously saw this and decided to get his starters now and just spend on hitting, which may be more secure.

George gets the Clark/Jackson platoon and even more money to spend. I think both teams got what they want, and will be the top 2 teams going in. But, I like George’s team now over Mark’s after both trades. George is more balanced and has more money to spend on his needs and he can be very flexible as to how he can fill his needs. Mark has more openings to fill and less money.

Dr. Tailgate’s roster analysis:

OLD RIPS:
He traded away his corners to get 2 front line starters. It’s safer, just more expensive. He lost Hall ($2) + Jackson ($5) = $7 for Oswalt + Smoltz = $51. He will now need to spend money on 2 corners and he still needs another SB guy. He won’t have to spend much on starting pitching, and he may not have money now for a second closer. I don’t know who’s his #10 – Glavine closes out his Starters vs Cameron who gives him SB’s for $19. The team gets more expensive: 10 for $127 or $136.

The team needs to spend on some sure thing hitters: Pujols/Helton + Rolen/Ensberg for $70-80. With only $150 left, that will leave $70-80 for Outfielders, a cheap corner, and 5-6 pitchers, which is certainly doable. But, is this better then Jackson + Hall + Glavine: 10 for $78, with $202 to spend on: Pujols $50, Pierre $36, Pedro $30, Tim Hudson $26, and $60 to spend on Outfielders and backup pitching. This gets him similar starters, more SB’s and can easily get value in outfield. Personally I think I like the flexibility and upside of latter over the more security, but no corners and maybe not enough money for SB’s of Mark’s choice.

It will be interesting to see who he gets in the draft. 9 players - $117 + Cameron ($19) vs Glavine ($10)

1) Yadier Molina C - $3/07 – starting catcher, who doesn’t suck. But, no bargain
2) Felipe Lopez SS - $2/07 - 20 HR-15 SB for $2 is a bargain
3) Chase Utley 2B– $13-07 - should have been a Peckler. Another 20+ -15 MI guy
4) Clint Barmes 2B - $13/06X - .330 / 15+ HR Colorado guy.
5) Jason Lane OF - $7/06 – should continue to improve, 20-25 HR, probably goes to $12/07C
6) Brad Lidge Closer - $13/07C – one of best keeper values in league
7) Roy Oswalt SP - $31/07 – a star, true #1 starter
8) John Smoltz SP $20/07 – He’s a year older and always an injury risk. Still, he was great last year: 14 wins, 2.95, 1.135
9) Matt Morris SP - $10/07 – Now in SF. He had a great recovery year. SF is good, but not as good as StLouis. Still should be keeper.

Other potential keepers:
1) Mike Cameron OF $19/07 – now in SD, so will hurt his HR’s, but still has SB potential. Though not worth $19 without the HR’s
2) Tom Glavine P $10/07 – old, but had solid year in NY. Should have better wins and protection after all the pickups by the Mets
3) Kylie Davies P $5/07F – currently #6 Atlanta starter. Will be good in future, but probably starts in the bullpen
4) Brandon Lyon Closer - $21/07 – looks like lost closer job to Valverde, so not a keeper unless declared he is the the closer.
5) Jose Capellan P – Farm – could make Brewer Bullpen. Has that 100 MPH fastball, and bad control
6) Chad Qualls P a buck – you could spend a buck in a lot of worse ways.

Mark wants to make a 2 for 1. If he doesn’t, I’d bet on Cameron. As for Mark’s situation, the Doc made a very good point: he can have Pedro and Hudson for around $56, give or take. Maybe a little less great than Oswalt and Smoltz, but still pretty good, plus he’d have those 2 cheap guys. The pitchers were replaceable in the draft, but Hall and Jackson probably will not be without a lot of luck.

Back to the Doc’s analysis:

CAPPERS:
He gets the high upside platoon of Clark + Jackson for $6 at 1B/CI, so he doesn’t have to worry about who is playing. He has lots of Power and a great start at SB with Reyes. The keepers got cheaper, with more money to spend on pitching, 2B/MI, and OF. Alfonso Soriano or Beltran or Winn could give him whatever he needs in SB’s and add some power too. And he’ll buy Pedro or Hudson to go with Pettitte and Myers. Spending $60-65 on the multi-category hitter plus the stud starting pitcher still leaves him around $100 for more pitching and OF. He’ll be able to spend for a 2nd closer ($30), 4th Starter ($15-20) and OF’ers at $10 average.

10 players for $118.

1) Javier Valentin C $1/07 – Jason La Who? This guy could play everyday, with .290, 12 HR in only 175 AB’s. But, they resigned LaRue to be the main guy still.
2) Tony Clark 1B $1/07 – WOW. .308 with 25 HR as platoon guy. Where did that .308 come from. This guy couldn’t even play for the Mets last year. Will get AB’s in platoon with Connor Jackson. Now that Tracy is at 3B full time
3) Edwin Encarnacion 3B - $5/07F - should start in Cinci this year. He’s a sure keeper if makes ML roster, and they have no one better
4) Conor Jackson 1B – 5/F – will likely be starting in Arizona with Clark, has nothing left to prove in AAA. Has big power upside.
5) Jose Reyes SS - $15/06C – finally lived up to the hype with 51 SB’s. George probably should have extended him to $20. Got to get a top SB guy to stay in the game, and he’s the best (except for Podsednik of course)
6) Lance Berkman OF $28/07 – started slow after DL, but is now at .295 with 19 HR. Should be back to .300+, 30 HR, 100 RBI’s next year
7) Pat Burrell OF $29/07 – He’s back, no .209 Bave this year. .280 – 30 HR’s – 106 RBI so far. Easy keeper
8) Andy Pettitte SP $16/07 – I didn’t like his Ratio history and Injury History. Man he’s been great. 15 wins, 2.48, 1.056. A steal.
9). Brett Myers SP $2/07 - George was mad he didn’t take Ohka at draft instead of him, but 12 Wins, 3.63/1.222 later, he had a bargain.
10) Trevor Hoffman CL $16/06C – He’s 38 and just gets better. Eliminating the injury year 2003, his worst #’s were his rookie year in 1993. No reason to think he’ll be worse any time soon.

The next guys:
1) Ugueth Urbina CL $17/07 – can a player be called a “free” agent, when he’s in jail awaiting trial for murder.
2) Luis Gonzalez OF $22/07 – I know, he’s an old guy, but he’s always worth $20-25. He’ll go around that in draft, so not worth it on this team.
3) Jim Edmonds OF $29/06 – another stellar year with 25 + HR, just not good enough on Cappers.
4) Russ Branyan 3B $7/06X – solid 15 HR guy undervalued.
5
) Barry Bonds OF $31/07 – if he’s back and healthy, he’s below value
6) Vinny Castilla 3B - $6/06C – Now in SD, a bad HR park. George will probably have to buy out the contract, or will have to drop someone above

Final note from Pefacommish – Boof said he thinks he might not keep Burrell. Gotta be smoke, but who knows? Maybe George doesn’t want to cut Castilla loose for a benjy. And maybe he’s satisfied with 2nd place.