Ties

I'm going to be heading for NYC tomorrow for a few days, which will include 2 Yankee games this weekend. One will be with my old college friends and the other will be with my even older grade school friends. Actually, everyone is about the same age, so no one is particularly older, though they (we) are all older than the last time I saw any of them, which was about 1978. The big question will be who has grey hair and who has no hair.

Anyway, I've been a little lax here because my personal life has been a mess coupled with the stratospheric rise of the Busch Leaguers, who have left the rest of us in the dust. It's a race for second at this point, which is a little less exciting. The last time I saw Jeff he offered a bet on us finishing first (he would bet on us). I turned him down. It was kind of like taking insurance at the blackjack table.

The race for second looks to be among Any 9, the Pounders and the Pecklers. No offense to the Cappers and the Bats, but despite what Kenny 9 wrote below, I just don't see it. Hey, I'll be happy to eat my words if I'm wrong.

I started looking at what the tie breakers are. The main tie breaker is categories between the teams. In this regard, Any 9 and the Pecklers are tied at 4-4. Possible changes are limited to ERA (Pecklers have upside) and Ratio (Any 9 has upside). Any 9 leads the Pounders 5-3, with Any 9 having upside in homers and the Pounders having upside in BA. Finally the Pecklers and the Pounders are tied at 4-4, with the Pecklers having upside in RBI and maybe, just maybe, in wins.

It's pretty close.

The next tie breaker involves innings pitched and at bats. In this, the more the better. Here are the stats:

At Bats:
Any 9 - 6002
Pecklers - 6142
Pounders - 6172

Innings Pitched:
Any 9 - 1183.3
Pecklers - 1188.3
Pounders - 1244.7

So the Pounders have a clear lead, and the Pecklers are 2nd.

It ought to get interesting.

Upside

I'm going to write something in a second, but here is a little analysis from Kenny 9 on upside in the BABI race:

Based on possibilities of upside only, here are where the top 6 teams going for the ring can best hope to finish with two weeks left:

Team ....Current Pts.... Best Possible Finish
Busch...................73.................................77
Any 9...................67.5............................. 75
Pecklers.............. 67............................... 70
.300 LB............... 64............................... 71
Cappers...............61.5............................ 75.5
Bats..................... 61............................... 65

Of course, if one team picks up points, others will lose points.

George has the biggest upside, but this is nothing new, as he has had this all year long.

If you merely establish the 50% point (mediun) of where each team is now, and where they could be by year end, you have the following finish:
Busch.........75
Any 9.........71.5
Pecklers.... 68.5
.300 LB......68
Cappers......68.5
Bats............ 62.5

I’m not forecasting this by any means, but it does take “reasonable” upside into consideration, and food for thought.

I enjoyed reading this, but it's clear that Ken needs something more in his life to do. Actually, I think he's just trying to delude himself that he's going to beat us out for 2nd.

That's a Shame

I've been overwhelmed in the past couple of weeks, both by the Busch Leaguers and by personal circumstances, resulting in a blog void. Filling the void today is a pinch hitter hot off the DL. No, not Barry Bonds. It's...

"Now pinch hitting, number 9, Kenny 9!"

Top 5 September Outcomes that would...be a shame:

1) Barry comes back, hits 9 home runs, but his .198 batting average causes the Cappers to sink to last in BA, and costs George his second BABI championship.

2) Last week of the season, Cardinals rest Pujols with an injury, and Phils rest Abreau for the playoffs after clinching the wild card. Beltran continutes to be the ‘05 Version of Beltran, and Jeff loses 6 pts. in HR’s & RBI’s as three teams go by him in each category, and loses what would have been his umpteenth BABI championship on the last day of the season.

3) On the last day of the season, Kelly Stinnett, a catcher’s catcher by all accounts, steals the first two bases in his career, and the Lickers pass the .300 pounders in steals, putting the Lickers into 3rd place and at the same time robbing Kevin of his first BABI championship.

4) On the last day of the season, the Seattle Mariners activate Jessie Foppert, and he gets tagged for 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 1/3rd of an inning, and Any 9 loses 3 pts. combined in ERA and Ratio, robbing Ken of his first BABI championship.

5) In the last two weeks of the season, desperate for wins, the Pecklers claim old favorite Chan Ho Park off the waiver wire, after he was dumped by the Busch Leaguers. Park miraculously pitches 3 shutouts and clinches the first BABI championship for the Pickled Ones!

6) In the most counter-intuitive, albeit BRILLIANT move yet, Barry drops all of his starting pitchers except rookies Matt Cain and Zach Duke for the final 3 weeks, and picks up the remainder of the unclaimed Pirates bullpen through FAAB. The Pittsburgh team wins 18 of their remaining 21 games and Barry runs off 3 consecutive weeks of 6+ of vulture wins, and 5+ saves per week with the Buc’s pen and stout starting pitching outings by the two rooks. His motto: “Duke and Cain, and pray for rain!” Bat out of Hell finishes tied for first with the Pecklers at the end of the season, but larry.dot.net points out that they did not meet the innings requirement, as the two rookie hurlers were under age according to “THE BOOK” and get dropped to last in ERA and Ratio, and plummets back into 6th place as a result. ...Now, THAT’S a shame!

Good luck gentlemen!

The Morning Line

Kenny9 has decided (at my prompting) to handicap the BABI race. Here is his current posted line:

Win:
Busch Leaguers 1-2
Pickled Pecklers 7-5
.300 Pounders 5-1
Any 9 5-1
Cappers 8-1
Bats 10-1
Iwanna 12-1
Field 60-1 (all the rest of the teams)

Exacta:
Busch-Pecklers 7-5
Busch-.300 lb 3-1
Busch-Any 9: 3-1
Busch-Cappers 5-1
Busch-Bats 7-1
Busch-Iwanna 7-1
Busch-Field 20-1

Pecklers-Busch 2-1
Pecklers-.300 lb 6-1
Pecklers-Any9 6-1
Pecklers-Cappers 10-1
Pecklers-Bats 12-1
Pecklers-Iwanna 12-1
Pecklers-Field 40-1

I think at 5-1 Kenny9 is underestimating his own team. I’d say it is closer to 4-1.

And I think he’s overestimating the chances of the Bats and Lickers to make it. The Pecklers hit 70 points today and the Leaguers are right behind at 69.5. I think it’s going to take 71 points to win, and I don’t see how either of those teams can scare up the points to get near there. No offense meant here, but I’d put the Bats at 100-1 and the Lickers at 250-1.

Finally, the field bet at 60-1 is crazy. None of those teams are going to come close. The field has to be at 1000-1. If you include the Bats and the Lickers in the field bet, then 60-1 is probably about right.

Not that I’m offering wagering on these odds.

Keep your eye on the saves and RBI races between the Pecklers and the Leaguers. Those look like the keys down the stretch between them. More comments on this later.

Catching Up in the Race

Here are the results through Wednesday’s games, showing the increase or decrease from last Saturday when I did my last update.

Pecklers 69.5 (+2.5)
Busch Leaguers 69.5 (+8.0)
Any 9 65.5 (+.5)
300 Pounders 63.0 (+.5)
Cappers 61.5 (-5.5)
Bats 60.0 (-1.0)
Lickers 54.5 (-3.5)

The Busch Leaguers have made a strong move, paralleled by a jump into 2nd place in saves. The Pecklers put one save point at risk to them by trading Farnsworth, but since the transaction does not become effective until 9/6, we may hang on anyway. Clearly that point could be critical between the two teams.

The Pecklers have the tie breaker advantage over everyone, including the Busch Leaguers. The Leaguers ability to steal the save point would change the 1st tie breaker to 4-4 in categories. On the other hand, thanks to 23 RBI’s in the first 2 days of this week, including 14 yesterday, the Leaguers only lead the Pecklers by 8 in that category. So there.

We made the pitching trade to try to inch up in wins, but more importantly, to stay in front of the teams behind us. We now have 5 starters. Carrying 3 closers puts a governor on the wins production. Usually the only wins closers get are ugly ones (ie, blown saves). We hope that by taking one of the Falkuhns’ starters we will pass them in wins. We also hope the presence of a closer on the Falkuhns will keep them ahead of some of the teams that trail them in saves.

Any 9 has been hovering at 65, give or take, for a long time. They picked up Ensberg, which should help them in homers and possibly RBI’s. They will need to get some points in these categories to make it all possible.

The Cappers have taken a pounding this week. They suddenly only have 2 points in BA. George insists he couldn’t finish higher than 2nd, so he didn’t sell out completely. I don’t believe it. Neither does anyone I’ve talked to about it. Hey, I’m glad. He was serious competition, but only if he made a serious move. The result: the Cappers will finish 4th-6th, which just doesn’t pay. You’ve got to finish first or second at least every third year to make any money in this game. On the other hand, he’ll have another strong keeper list next year.

The Pounders have stalled at around 62 points after a furious run in August. The Pecklers just took an RBI point away from them, but it’s still close. This team just has to finish 3rd in saves (good for 2 points) which they probably will. And like everyone else, they need to get wins from their starting pitchers.

The Bats are hanging despite the following pitching line yesterday: 16-1/3 IP, 29 H, 3 BB, 19 ER. The Elder Barry emailed me some more of his new mystery novel to peruse. He says he’s going to name the first guy killed Mark Prior.

Let’s put the unhappy face on the Lickers. They are desperate for saves points, but have only one closer. They should have been banging on our door for Farnsworth. And after all season in the stratosphere in wins, suddenly the Cappers are on their butt. They have a few points upside here and there, but 60 points now seems to be their ceiling. They look to be down for the count, but let’s give credit where it is due: they had a brilliant draft. I just don’t think they got enough for their pitching keepers that they traded.

Finally, the Pecklers had a lovely finish to the Mets-Phils game a couple of days ago. In the top of the 8th, down 1 run, they brought in Juan Padilla for a clean inning. Then in the bottom of the 8th, Ramon Castro hit a 3 run homer. Looper came in for a clean ninth for the save. A win, a save and a game winning 3 run jimmy jack. It just doesn’t get any better than that.

In the Hands of the Players

I’m on a quick break between the hospital and the office, so I want to catch up here as best I can.

The long weekend began Friday morning with a phone message that my aunt had died in Chico. She was 85, and it was expected, though she thankfully went downhill very quickly. I was to be stuck with a number of obligations relating to the Colma funeral scheduled for Tuesday.

Saturday we were advised that my two cousins living in New Orleans had evacuated their family to Baton Rouge. It took 11 hours to drive 75 miles, but they made it and settled into the house of some generous friends.

Sunday afternoon I attended the Giants-Mets game as Noel’s guest, along with Kenny9 and Mr. Leaguer. It’s always a lot of fun to go to a game with other BABIrarians, and with the race so close among the Pecklers, Leaguers and 9’s, it was particularly intense. We watched ex-Pickled One Noah Lowry throw another impeccable game, and we suffered through an Armando Benitez/Busch Leaguer save. Benson, being waived around as trade bait by the Falkuhns, looked pretty good until suddenly he was beat up in the 6th. It ended Benson’s tradability, since the only teams looking to deal watched him blow up.

Season record now 8-8.

On the way home from the game, I got a call that my wife had taken my mother to the ER. The Doc, who was at the game as well in different seats, was already there. I was assigned to feed and walk the dog and then come over. What started as an intense headache turned out to be leaking blood vessel in her brain. She was transferred down to Redwood City where Kaiser has its neurological surgery center.

Monday was filled with funeral arrangements and the arrival of relatives, with our home as the base. The Doc and I made it down to visit our mother in the afternoon, and we were advised that she was scheduled for a fancy vascular procedure to correct the problem on Wednesday afternoon.

On the way back, we logged onto Larry Dot Net in the car, because we were talking about a deal that would send Farnsworth to him for a starting pitcher (we hoped it would be Willis). I mention this because I hope you are all impressed that through all the tsouris (Yiddish for troubles, heartache), we were able to keep our priorities straight. We hoped to get a deal done right then, but LDN was moving at the usual glacier speed, and of course, in the background, Robert was up to no good.

The funeral went off without a hitch on Tuesday. We got in another hospital visit that afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, they began the procedure at 5 PM.

With nothing better to do, we sat outside the hospital and once more dialed into Larry Dot Net. Even though the trade deadline was now only hours away, Larry wasn’t ready yet. He had my cell number, though in the Critical Care Unit I wasn’t allowed to have it on. He said he’d call and leave a message.

So the Doc and I settled in, watching TV (Seinfeld – the car with B.O. episode, or as George said, “beyond B.O.”, followed by a Victor Borge special and then a Jack Paar special). After a 4 hour procedure, the doctor joined us to say that the procedure was 95% successful, but that later in the week our mother will need “small brain surgery” to remove the remaining 5% he could not treat. It was an extreme good news-bad news scenario.

After he left, I check my voice mail messages. Sure enough, there was a call from Larry Dot Net offering a deal. We decided we didn’t want to give up as much hitting as he was asking for. We didn’t really have time to return the call, as we wanted to hang with our mother to be there when she woke up.

We decided to leave the hospital at about 11:15. We came in separate cars, so I hopped in mine and headed home. As I was driving up route 101, the phone rang. It was Larry Dot Net. He offered to reduce the deal to what we ended up with: So and Seo for Farnsworth and our choice of hitters, which was Dustin Mohr-on. We had decided to waive Mohr when we learned that Barry had traded Ensberg, so we’re happy to give him to Larry, who isn’t going to keep him despite his homers. I confirmed the deal with Seth, who was in his car.

I got home at 11:40 and hopped on the computer to see that we had a monster day. I logged into Larry Dot Net to confirm the deal, and sent out a quick email to the BABI world at 11:45. The last trade of the season was complete.

There is still some diddling to do, but for the most part, it’s out of our control. That pretty much describes my attitude toward life. All that’s left is to cheer: “Go Pickled Ones.”

Dot Dot Dot

My last posting was Saturday. Life has gotten quite complicated this week, with a death in the family, our mother in the hospital requiring brain surgery, and two cousins evacuating from New Orleans to Baton Rouge.

That said, I’m sure you’re all impressed with our ability to pull off a last second deadline deal, winning me a buck on the over (2-1/2) for the number of trades in the last week.

I’ll catch up either later today or tomorrow with details on all of the above and more. Meanwhile, the Assman sent the post below. I’m not sure if it’s flattering or not, but since only about 10 people on earth read this thing, I’m happy to post it.

Assman on the Pecklers

The Education of a Rotisserie Champion
(or How the Pecklers learned to win in Rotisserie Baseball)

By Dr. Howard Cooperman (AKA “Assman”, AKA Larry Kuhn)

In several past years, the Pickled Pecklers started the season well, with strong statistical starts (even from some unorthodox pitchers). In many seasons they were major contenders until around July. Then it seemed the inevitable slide would occur. The Pecklers would start to look like a setting sun, slowly fading to black as the eventual winners made the moves they needed to catch and pass the seemingly hapless Pecklers. They had many upper division finishes, but appeared to not have what it took to reach the top.

Though this was by no means a tragedy, I can recall many conversations with other owners when the Pecklers were dismissed as a contender. They had seen the Pecklers second half behavior and expected them to continue to fall away whenever their team began to contend. The Pecklers got less respect than they deserved.

So cut to this year. What are the differences? The Pecklers learned something and it shows in their team this year. In my opinion, there is a minor factor, the computer, and a major factor, the development of audacity.

The Computer:
This year the Pecklers brought a computer to the draft. They will say that this was not a big factor in their success at the draft, but I’m not sure I agree. I KNOW the computer helped them because it made them focus. Previously the Pecklers have joked and jeered and kept up a running commentary during the auction. Not this time. You could hear a pin drop at their table (or a bottle drop on Larry’s). That focus paid off big time with a well balanced lineup (they’ve also spent less money on transactions than almost anyone). And they didn’t take big chances on questionable pitchers (although they might have if Bullinger was available). Focus made the difference and the computer required focus.

Audacity:
Often in the past a trade conversation with a Peckler would end with a promise by that Peckler to speak to the other Peckler and consider a deal. Almost never did they want to trade real value and they had a tendency to fall in love with their prospects. That is why in past years they did not strike while the iron was hot. This left them literally out in the cold; they missed out on the players they needed to acquire via trade. They acted as though they weren’t SURE they wanted to go for it. They seemed almost afraid to take a chance and then finish second. This year all of that has changed.

This year they are exhibiting Audacity. They are doing whatever they need to do to win, like trading Milledge (though perhaps the fact he almost ended up in the AL in July had something to do with that). And hopefully tonight (I’m writing this on August 31 around 10 PM) they are trading me Farnsworth who is at a very good price if he holds the closer job in Atlanta). As Josh and Seth would no doubt say this year, “keepers be damned”.

So the Pecklers ARE different this year and it REALLY is a big difference. And from now on, they can never again be disrespected, at least when they are contenders.

As a past winner (as well as whiner), I think you need four things to win the Championship of Rotisserie. Those things are:

1. Knowledge – of the players and the other owners
2. Discipline – at the auction to not get carried away
3. Audacity – the willingness to go for it at all cost
4. Luck – too many injuries will negate all of the above

So Good Luck all you contenders. It is an exciting race even for those who are out of it. We losers just don’t give a shit who wins. Best of luck to the Pounders, the Bats, the Lickers, the Cappers, the Leaguers, Any 9 and yes, the suddenly audacious Pecklers.