The Morning Line

Kenny9 has decided (at my prompting) to handicap the BABI race. Here is his current posted line:

Win:
Busch Leaguers 1-2
Pickled Pecklers 7-5
.300 Pounders 5-1
Any 9 5-1
Cappers 8-1
Bats 10-1
Iwanna 12-1
Field 60-1 (all the rest of the teams)

Exacta:
Busch-Pecklers 7-5
Busch-.300 lb 3-1
Busch-Any 9: 3-1
Busch-Cappers 5-1
Busch-Bats 7-1
Busch-Iwanna 7-1
Busch-Field 20-1

Pecklers-Busch 2-1
Pecklers-.300 lb 6-1
Pecklers-Any9 6-1
Pecklers-Cappers 10-1
Pecklers-Bats 12-1
Pecklers-Iwanna 12-1
Pecklers-Field 40-1

I think at 5-1 Kenny9 is underestimating his own team. I’d say it is closer to 4-1.

And I think he’s overestimating the chances of the Bats and Lickers to make it. The Pecklers hit 70 points today and the Leaguers are right behind at 69.5. I think it’s going to take 71 points to win, and I don’t see how either of those teams can scare up the points to get near there. No offense meant here, but I’d put the Bats at 100-1 and the Lickers at 250-1.

Finally, the field bet at 60-1 is crazy. None of those teams are going to come close. The field has to be at 1000-1. If you include the Bats and the Lickers in the field bet, then 60-1 is probably about right.

Not that I’m offering wagering on these odds.

Keep your eye on the saves and RBI races between the Pecklers and the Leaguers. Those look like the keys down the stretch between them. More comments on this later.