Ode to the Best Pick We Ever Made

We were price enforcing: $14. Our excel spreadsheet on our computer that said his value was $19. We had already spent $30 on Pedro Martinez, and we had no spot available for that kind of bid on a starting pitcher. In fact, we had no spots planned for ANY additional starting pitchers.

Crickets.

Brandon Webb was ours.

We’ve been in BABI a long time. I could go look up the Klesko thing (my way of determining our first year in the league), but it’s about 15 years, give or take. I’m quite sure we’ve never had a starting pitcher who we drafted onto our team who stayed on our team for four full years, including the extension year.

Those years were glorious.

He was 26 years old, and had just finished his second year in the bigs. He had a great rookie season, and then a traditional sophomore slump in which he had a WHIP problem. His 2004 numbers were: 7-16, 3.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. I remember Boof telling me he thought he’d always have control problems.

Here is what we got:

2005 – 229 IP, 14-12, 3.54, 1.26
2006 – 235 IP, 16-8, 3.10, 1.13
2007 – 236.1 IP, 18-10, 3.01, 1.19
2008 – 226.2 IP, 22-7, 3.30, 1.20

He won a Cy Young in 2006, was runner up to Jake Peavy in 2007 and runner up to The Kid in 2008.

Pretty good.

He cost us $14 for the first 2 years and $19 for the last two. We didn’t bid on a $20+ starting pitcher during the past 3 seasons. We’ve been consistently near the top in ERA and Ratio during this time.

It’s a little daunting to start over without him. All we’ve got on our starting staff is $2 Paul Maholm. We’re probably going to have to spend $30 on a staff anchor, a scary prospect, because some of those guys don’t turn out so good. The sad thing is although we were in the money in all four years, we never really cashed in (4th, 7th, 5th, 4th). Too many $23 Chris Duncans, I guess.

I imagine 20 years from now when most of us are at the auction with our portable oxygen tanks, The Doc and I will be telling stories of the great times we had when Brandon Webb was our staff gem. Well, that and our 19 year unbroken streak of 1st place finishes in BABI.

How'd He Do It?

After reading my analysis of the Leaguers, our reigning champion sent me an email asking, basically, “What about me?” Now Boof is going to deny he said this, but I’ve got the email right here:

From: Boof Brittain
To: Sgt. Bilko
Subject: Mr. Leaguer Analysis

What about me?

Boof

There you go. Proof positive.

In a subsequent email he made a good case for an analysis by BABI’s most brilliant commentator. He may deny he called me that, but I’ve got his email right here. If you insist, I’ll reprint it on this blog in the future.

Anyway, he added, “Maybe you can figure out how I won. I’m still trying to figure it out, although I think Pujols had something to do with it… Remember, I lost Pujols, Peavy & Smoltz for an extended period and some at the same time. You really don’t know how close I got to pitching it all in. I made quite a few dump offers and nobody took them. It’s like the saying goes, “The best deals are the ones you don’t make.”

Well, that’s certainly true about deals that Mark offers you.

He’s right – it was quite a comeback. Peavy was on the DL from 5/14-6/12 with right elbow problems, which can be season and/or career ending. Pujols popped his calf (painful and debilitating – I know because I’ve done it 3 times) and was on the DL from 6/10-6/26. And Smoltz ended up having shoulder surgery, which ended his season on April 29 with the exception of 2 days in June when he tried to come back.

Peavy was $34, Pujols $45 and Smoltz $25, for a total of $104 of salary. For 3 days in June their DL stints were overlapping. And I can confirm that he was thinking of throwing in the towel, because he told me that, and he was flashing the Pujols trade card*, though it never got serious.

*Speaking of the Pujols trade card, last summer we did speak about a Pujols trade, but it wasn’t going to be a dump deal. We chatted about Pujols for Webb. Webb was not only the reigning Cy Young winner, but was at that time the clear leader for a repeat. Don’t forget, Webb won his first 9 starts. Meanwhile, despite how well he did last year, Pujols was always at risk of going on the DL for the duration. Mark wanted more. We just wanted to balance. We never got any further, but I found the negotiation interesting – the best hitter for the best starting pitcher. Does anyone else have an opinion?

Peavy came back, and although was only 10-11 on the season, his ERA was 2.85 and his WHIP was 1.18. This was critical in the final race because ERA and WHIP were incredibly close categories among the top 3 teams, and by finishing first in both categories he was able to win the stretch drive. Pujols was only on the DL for that short time, and he finished a phenomenal season (routine for him) with 641 plate appearances. Smoltz was a lost cause, and it certainly hurt to lose him, but recovery, obviously was possible. Had all 3 been history as was rumored, Boof would have been finished.

The Old Rips share one important factor with the Leaguers: they had no expensive keepers who failed miserably. Freddie Sanchez and Matt Diaz disappointed, but they only cost $6 and $2 respectively. Peavy’s low win total meant he underperformed his $34 price tag, but his pristine numbers proved critical to the Rips. And best of all, Boof kept 4 players who ended up with big profits: Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino and Jason Werth, who was 20-20 for 2 bucks. No big mistakes and 4 huge winners.

Smoltz was the one huge mistake in the auction. Riske and Wolf at $13 were both pretty bad. Geoff Jenkins at $17 lost money, but Boof was able to trade him, so he wasn’t that bad of a pick. Mark Reynolds was a mixed bag, but he banged the homers for $21 and his BA didn’t hurt so badly when he was traded. Kent was ok, underperforming at $22, but not that badly.

Boof had a few larger mistakes than Mr. Leaguer, but he also had some monster cheap draft buys. Jim Edmonds hit 20 homers for 2 bucks. I consider that possibly the most outrageous statistic of 2008. Aaron Cook pitched well for the Old Rips for 1 dollar, winning 13 games with excellent numbers (3.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) before Boof traded him to the Lickers and he decided to be the guy nobody wanted to say $2 on (5.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). Ryan Franklin became the closer in St. Louis for a while for a buck, getting 4 wins and 14 saves before he too was traded (and then lost the closer role to Chris Perez). I’d put this trio of cheap guys up against any purchased in 2008 for the value they provided last year.

Where Mr. Leaguer was about not making mistakes, the Old Rips won because they hit it big on some keepers and some guys purchased in the auction. This more than offset the mistakes.

Another factor in the Old Rips’ 2008 success was that they had two of their farm players with big reputations, Clayton Kershaw and Chase Headley, come up from the minors, not suck, and then become valuable trade pieces.

Reviewing the team’s non-trade transactions, most of them were forgettable. John Grabow produced a 7.20 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. However, Ricky Nolasco got 8 wins and posted 3.01-0.94. Ryan Madson was picked up off waivers after the Pecklers unceremoniously dumped him, and he went on to get 2 wins in 6 weeks with a 2.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. )BTW, his numbers in 11.2 innings for us were 5.40 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. We didn’t time him quite as well as Boof.) Russell Branyan had 12 homers and even hit .250 for the Rips’ $13 FAAB bid. Jody Gerut had 13-42-5-.302 for a $12 FAAB bid. It may sound crazy, but 4 useful, normal (less than $20) FAAB pickups in one season is sensational.

And then, when various teams in the league were ready to take a dump, the Old Rips were there, holding a roll of toilet paper.

Six trades - 5 dump deals and a semi-dump. The semi-dump was with Hobo, on July 1, the midway point of the season. Hobo sent Dobbs and Lowe to the Rips for Reynolds and Flash Gordon. Gordon would soon be on the DL for the rest of the season, and possibly his life. Hobo also got the short end (11 of his 28 homers) of Reynolds’ big stick. Lowe was superb for the Rips (9 wins, 2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). Dobbs was Dobbs – he hit a little more than a little, and then Mark sent him back to Hobo later in the season in a true dump deal. Definite plus for the Old Rips.

Deal #2 was with Any 9 on July 22. Any 9 had bought Harden in cross-over FAAB for $85, and immediately packaged him and LaPorta and a bum, for Headley (activated farm), Parra (farm), Matt Diaz (on his way to bumdom) and Tyler Yates (long time resident of bumdom). Classic dump deal, with future players to determine if this is a good deal for Any 9. Harden won 5 games and posted 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Another plus.

Deals #3 and #4 were with the Bums and the Lickers on July 29. The Bums trade was simple: Valverde straight up for Kershaw. Kershaw, an activated farm player, is all future (he pitched OK for the Rips, not so well for the Bums. We assume he’ll be kept by the Bums. Valverde was spectacular in the last 2 months, with 2 wins, 17 saves, 0.76 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. That ERA is not a misprint. Boof sent Cook to the Lickers just in time, packaged with a bum for Tejada and Billinsgley. Tejada was no great shakes (3-17-0-.281) but Billingsley had 6 wins and an ERA of 2.92, WHIP of 1.39. Plus and Plus.

Notice that every deal brought a pitcher who was lights out for the Old Rips. And this mattered because they finished with 43 of 48 pitching points, with the primary competition coming from the closest competition. The perfect 24 points in ERA and WHIP beat the 22 points from All Tease, 18 points from the Leaguers and 17 points from the distant 4th place Pecklers.

Deal #5 was concluded on Bugger the Cartel Day on August 19. Mark got Burrell (didn’t do much), Pierre (the famous French fighter pilot didn’t do much), and Maddux (the 1 pitcher he traded for who absolutely STUNK - 7.16 ERA and 1.55 WHIP) for $1 Franklin (no longer the closer in St. Louis), an injured Geoff Jenkins (at $17 maybe he’ll be kept, and maybe he’ll be somewhere else), a DL’d $1 Jason Schmidt (who knows?) and a non-keeper, Brandon Moss (had the most RBIs of anyone after the deal). Boof gave up almost nothing, and got some big names who produced almost nothing.

Oh, he got one more name, a final throw-in to the deal. Farm prospect Jason Heyward. He was a throw in. One week later Heyward was traded to Hobo in Deal #6 along with the $1 Dobbs for Aramis Ramirez and Stephen Pearce, who was required to be activated. Both guys hit fine, hit a few dingers, hit for decent average. So did Dobbs (his usual, above expectations), but it was a net plus again for the Old Rips.

Boof’s deals were superb for him. He was able to get value for guys like Matt Diaz and Greg Dobbs, as well as young guys he received in trade (Headley and Heyward). And his timing was mystical on Cook and Gordon and Reynolds.

Wanna know how he won? Good keepers. No big mistakes. Decent draft with a few huge cheap winners. Four solid mid-season pickups. And some magical trades.

The Pecklers congratulate him, and would like to remind you all that as usual we didn’t make any trades with him. Don’t blame us.

Kickin' Our Asses

I’ve taken a careful look at the BABI results since the new millennium, and if you’re somehow unaware, Mr. Leaguer has been kicking our asses. I mean REALLY kicking our asses.

Since the year 2000, he’s been in the money 9 out of 9 times. He’s won it 5 times, and his worst finish, in a rebuilding year after 4 consecutive wins, was 5th. His AVERAGE finish is 2nd (2.22).

He’s won 80% of the money. Only 2 other teams are net ahead, and not by much.

So here are some BABI trivia questions:

What are the other two teams that are net ahead during the past 9 years?

What team has finished in the money 8 times?

What 2 teams have finished in the money 6 times?

What two teams besides the Leaguers have not finished 11th or 12th in that period?

What other 4 teams have finished have finished first, second or third three or more times in that period?

The answers will follow at the end.

I’ve been analyzing the Leaguers’ 2008 campaign to figure out how they did it. They didn’t appear to have a strong keeper list. They kept 7 players:

C – Bard 6
3B – Atkins 19
SS – H. Ramirez 21
MI – Rollins 43
OF – Ethier 13
OF – Bourn 6
P – Gorzelanny 7

It’s not a long list. There are no monster keepers, like Kerry Wood at 3, or Ryan Braun at 5, or Matt Kemp at 10, or Ryan Ludwick at 6 (though Kemp and Ludwick weren’t obviously incredible keepers on cutdown day). Ramirez and Ethier had nice built in profits. Rollins had an off year, but he didn’t suck at 11-59-47-.277. On cutdown day, he was clearly no bargain. Bard and Gorzelanny stunk. In fact, Gorzelanny was waived before the end of April. I’ll talk about Bourn in a bit.

But there is a theme here. There were no huge mistakes. We kept Nick Johnson at 10, Ryan Zimmerman at 21 and we extended Eric Byrnes to 18. Injuries ruined their seasons. Other keepers included Francoeur at 15, Saito at 28, R. Soriano at 12, Harang at 19, Rich Hill at 13, Chad Cordero at 24, and Izzy at 24. Nasty seasons, every one of them.

Actually one of the consistent themes of the top 3 teams is that they didn’t have any ugly results from any of their keepers. Not all of them performed as well as was hoped, but none of the expensive keepers stunk.

Getting back to Michael Bourn, he was traded on 5/27 to the Lickers straight up for Adam Dunn (31-2010). Mr. Leaguer got 23 of Bourn’s 41 steals, and he got 27 of Dunn’s 40 homers and 68 of his 100 RBI’s. The totals accumulated for each team were:

Leaguers – 30 homers, 78 RBIs, 24 steals, .225 BA in 551 abs.
Lickers – 15 homers, 51 RBIs, 19 steals, .242 BA in 433 at bats.

The Leaguers paid $6 for those stats, the Lickers paid $31. Plus Bourn’s contract is dead, and Dunn, if he signs with an NL team, is a potential keeper for the Leaguers. This deal was a good one for the Leaguers.

Unlike the other 2 contending teams, the Leaguers only made two other deals. On August 5 they did a dump deal with the Bums, getting the $135 Sabathia and bums (small “b”) for Chris Iannetta and Jonathan Sanchez. Iannetta was a terrific pick, and Sanchez had his moments, though in the end, he’s still more promise than quality. Sabathia solidified the pitching for the Leaguers in the end in categories that were very close.

The other deal was celibrated on Bugger The Cartel Day on August 19, when all 3 teams at the top made deals with the Cartel. The Leaguer deal was the least significant of the three. He received Ty Wigginton, who hit .238 for the Leaguers during the last 6 weeks and Jonathan Broxton, who had 5 saves, which wasn’t enough to move the Leaguers out of last place in saves. Wigginton might be a keeper at 19 if he stays in the NL.

He didn’t do it on trades. Two deals helped some, but it probably wasn’t the difference between 3rd and 4th, given they finished 16.5 points ahead of us in 4th place.

Here is the Leaguers’ draft. They started with 18 slots and $165 to spend. This is the order of their picks, the salaries paid and the slots/money left after the pick:

Carlos Lee 43 - 17/122
Dan Haren 27 - 16/95
Randy Johnson 8 – 15/87
Bronson Arroyo 15 – 14/72
Michael Wuertz 2 – 13/70
Chad Tracy 6 – 12/64
Randy Winn 13 – 11/51
Xavier Nady 20 – 10/31
Scott Hairston 13 – 9/18
Chris Iannetta 4 – 8/14
Scott Hatteberg 2 – 7/12
Damion Easley 1 – 6/11
Chris Duffy 5 – 5/6
Jonathan Sanchez 2 – 4/4
Guillermo Mota 1 – 3/3
Todd Coffey 1 – 2/2
General Kuo 1 – 1/1
Jason Bergmann 1 – Done

All of the mistakes were small. All of the double digit guys did ok or better, as opposed to this run of 4 drafted Capper outfielders: Andrew Jones 24, Austin Kearns 20, Dave Roberts 16, Wily Mo Pena 14. Is there any wonder how the Cappers turned a solid keeper list into total crap?

And there are some nice picks in the middle of the auction. Randy Johnson at 8, Randy Winn at 13 and Xavier Nady at 20 performed quite well. The two Randys are sure keepers for 2009. Chad Tracy and Chris Iannetta at 6 and 4 are probably keepers too, though Iannetta will be a keeper for the Bums.

The end game was of little significance. They got a small trading chip in Sanchez, and Kuo had a wonderful season, but he only had 5 wins and 1 save. Should he turn into the closer in LA this year, in retrospect it will be the top pick of the 2008 auction. The other guys were bums.

I looked over the transactions of the Leaguers. There were 2 excellent pickups. On May 27 when the Leaguers were near the bottom of BABI, they grabbed Cody Ross off the waiver wire. He went 16-61-1-.279 from there. That is a lot of homers on the waiver wire. In July he picked up the frightening and ancient Jamie Moyer, who had 8 wins, an ERA of 3.39 and a ratio of 1.25 for the Leaguers in 11 weeks. He paid $8 for him. Great pickup.

The rest was completely forgettable. Wandy Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.48 and a ratio of 1.48 for the Leaguers. Joe Koshansky, who cost $28, had a total of 14 at bats before going on the DL. The $62 Casey Kotchman was 2-19-0-.246. Nothing else besides Ross and Moyer worked.

So how the hell did he do it? Three words: no big mistakes.

Let’s not let him do it again.

Oh, yeah, the BABI trivia questions:

What are the other two teams that are net ahead during the past 9 years? - Old Rips and Bleacher Bums

What team has finished in the money 8 times? Pickled Pecklers

What 2 teams have finished in the money 6 times? Bleacher Bums and Any 9

What two teams besides the Leaguers have not finished 11th or 12th in that period? Bleacher Bums and Pickled Pecklers

What other 4 teams have finished first, second or third three or more times in that period? Old Rips (1,1,2,3), All Tease Falkuhns (1,2,3), Bleacher Bums (1,2,3) and (surprise) Any 9 (2,3,3).

I Got Here First

In the wake of Jeff Kent's retirement, there has been a lot of local chatter about him. Yesterday JT Snow was on with Tom and Ralph and told a wonderful story about Kent when he first came to the Giants.

In 1996 Kent was traded from the Mets to the Indians. He never quite fit in at either place, and he felt he wasn't getting his full opportunity with the Indians. He played in 128 games that season with only 437 at bats.

JT was playing that season for the Angels, where he won his second consecutive Gold Glove. Kent spoke to him about his frustration (who knows - might have been one of those conversations at first base), and he asked JT to put in a good word for him with the Angels' organization. They may well have known each other in college - they are the same age and they both played in the Pac 10 (Snow with Arizona, Kent with Cal). JT said he'd do it.

Ironically, in the off-season they both got traded to the Giants, and the team was set for their eventual run to the 2002 World Series 6 years later.

That's not the story. That's just the setup. The story was early in the season in 1997 a group of guys including Barry made up to go to a bar after a game. One of the guys with a van was going to drive. When JT got to the van he piled into the back with another young Giant. Kent was sitting shotgun. Barry came up to the van and told Kent to get out of his seat. Kent said "no," he had gotten there first. Barry said to stop kidding around and to get the hell out of his seat. Kent refused. Sure enough, when the van took off, Barry was sitting in the back seat.

That is a true Jeff Kent story. Cocky guy, heckova player.

Story Addendum: Here are the trades that got Kent and Snow to the Giants.

Kent came in the famous Matt Williams deal. The Giants sent Williams and Trenidad Hubbard to Cleveland for Kent, Jose Vizcaino, Joe Roa and the beloved Julian Tavarez.

Snow was traded by the Angels to the Giants for Allen Watson and Fausto Macey. Great name, Fausto. I'll put that in my pet name list, but it will be behind "Snidely."

Cheers to a Giant Second Baseman

Jeff Kent called it quits today.

I’m already on record – the boos at Telephone Park are ridiculous. He gave the Giants 6 seasons of incredible hitting from a second baseman. Beyond incredible.

After Rogers Hornsby, those six years were possibly the best hitting by any 2nd baseman ever.

Here are those Giant years, and they were truly giant, from 1997-2002:

BA - .297
OBP - .403
SLG - .535
Hits – 1021 (170/year)
Homers – 175 (29/year)
Doubles – 247 (41/year)
Triples – 22 (3.67/year)
RBIs – 689 (115/year)

He was durable, he protected Bonds (for a while) he hit with power, he hit in the clutch, he stole a few bags, he backed up at first and third when needed, he could turn the double play, and he got us to within 2 innings of a world championship. Stop your whining. After Bonds and the Hall of Famers, he’s the best the SF Giants have ever had.

Sure he was an asshole. So was Barry. And periodically in his extended career, so was Willie. What more did you want from the guy?

So here’s the question: is he HOF material?

The gut says yes. Let’s look at the career stats:

BA - .290
OBP - .356
SLG - .500
Hits – 2461
Homers – 377
Doubles – 560
Triples – 47
RBIs – 1518

He got an MVP award in 2000 for the Giants, hitting 33 homers, driving in 125, with a career high BA of .334 and career slugging % of .596. I’m not sure how he beat out Barry that year (49/106/.306/.688). but it was a hell of a year. Not quite Hornsby in 1922 (42/152/.401/.722) or 1925 (39/143/.403/.756) or 1929 (39/149/.380/.679). No, not quite Hornsby, but pretty damn good, among the best ever by any second baseman. (Take a good look at those Hornsby years – holey moley!)

He hit 351 homers as a 2nd baseman, the most by any second baseman ever. EVER. Next was HOFer Ryne Sandberg, 74 homers behind. Sandberg, who was inducted into the Hall in 2005, was behind Kent in almost everything: hits, doubles, homers, rbis (457 behind), BA, OBP, SLG, and total bases. Sandberg had more triples and a lot more steals, and he was a much better fielder.

Let’s compare with HOFer Joe Morgan, who went into the Hall on his first opportunity. Kent had more doubles, way more homers, way more RBI’s, a higher batting average and much higher slugging. Joe had 56 more hits, more triples, way more steals and a higher OBP. And he too was a better fielder. Hell, I’m a better fielder than Kent.

Roberto Alomar is up for the first time next season. Kent topped him in all of the power categories, Alomar was tops in the basic hitting and speed categories. Alomar batted 3rd for a lot of his career, and yet he had 384 less RBI’s than Kent. And, of course, Alomar was a way, way, way better fielder, possibly the greatest 2nd baseman in the field ever. Except for the spitting incident, I’d say Alomar is in next year.

How can Kent not be in? He was the greatest power hitting 2nd baseman ever. And as a hitter, he’s comparable overall to the best 2nd basemen of the past half century.

IN.

Hellova player. Hellova fantasy player. And a hellovan asshole, though a minor leaguer compared to Cobb.

What a great combination. Stop booing, buttheads.

BABI Rule Change Proposals

Here are rules suggestions I’ve received. Obviously some of them need to be fleshed out.

Thornton Melon
1 – Move to 5x5, adding K’s and runs scored.
2 – Real time pickups

Old Ripper
1 – Open FAAB date postponed until 6/1. Between draft night and open FAAB date, replacements only for open roster spots. All players traded from AL may be bid on by anyone.

Gilbert Sullivan
1 – 5x5 or 5x4
2 – Reserve Squad

Mr. Leaguer
Current Rule:
A mid-season or pre-season meeting of all owners will make all decisions relative to the future league rules and the dates for roster turn-in, draft day, etc. A majority of owners present is sufficient to make any and all decisions.

Proposed:
A pre-season meeting of all owners will make all decisions relative to the future league rules and the dates for roster turn-in, draft day, etc. A quorum of 7 owners is required to make any rule changes. All rule changes will require a 2/3 vote of owners present. Owners may participate via telephone.

Rationale:
Rule changes should not be made lightly. A 4-3 vote could have one third of the owners radically changing how the game is played.

Verbally from Larry Dot Net
Eliminate one utility slot, presumably with a corresponding drop in team budgets, probably to $270.

Kenny9
Throw them all back in a few years.

You are welcome to use the comments on this blog for discussion. Please sign with some indication of which team you represent.

Joe and Bert

I hadn’t checked out Joe Posnanski’s blog in a while. I’d give anything to have his talent and his perseverance. I maintain that Joe, author of the greatest book ever written (The Soul of Baseball) also has the best blog on the planet.

Joe is able to write “curiously long posts” which include meanderings that if put on a telestrator look like John Madden’s chicken scratching play descriptions. In the neighborhood there are cul de sacs, and forks, and three pronged forks, circles which come back to the same road, and long winding roads that end up in a different county. You never know what you’ll see. For example, he’s got part of a post (maybe 2,000 words) on Barry Manilow’s CD “Greatest Songs of the Eighties.” This is the lead in to his analysis of the Baseball HOF results. To quote my buddy Kulko the Clown, “You never know where you’re going ‘till you get there.”

Somewhere past his imagining Barry singing “Against All Odds,” (“My high school senior class song. And no, I’m not going back for my 25th reunion this year. This song is why.”) he finally gets to the actual results. Ultimately he comes to Bert Blyleven, for whom he’s been a one-man band in support of his candidacy.

I agree. Here is why:

Bert Blyleven – 3,701
Walter Johnson – 3,509

That is career strikeouts. Frankly, that’s enough for me. He’s 5th all-time, ahead of, well, just about everyone. He’s over 300 ahead of Greg Maddux, who is turning 127 years old this year. Strikeouts are the purest form of evaluating pitching “stuff”, but Joe has an analysis covering shutouts which is incredible.

Here you go – learn something about Bert Blyleven. I challenge anyone to read this and not be shocked at how good he was. Well, unless you already knew how good he was.

Bert Blyleven (338 votes, 62.7%). Up only two votes this year … not a whole lot of momentum there. Sigh. I fear what Blyleven is missing is a solid theme, a slogan, a new campaign, something to rival “Most fearsome hitter of his time.” I’m not going to lie: I don’t think, “Guy whose numbers impress a lot of Internet Geeks” is getting it done for us.

Maybe we need to simply play up his shutouts. I think we all know that shutouts are good things … and they are an old fashioned thing. The old writers should APPRECIATE a good shutout. And shutouts are not things that you can just COMPILE by hanging around. Pedro Martinez is 36 years old, he has an argument as the most dominant pitcher ever, and I suspect he will NEVER throw another shutout.

So, let me kickoff the new “Project Shutout” by putting it this way:

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Bob Gibson. He has more shutouts than Juan Marichal. He has more shutouts than Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson — a lot more than either of them. He has more shutouts than Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins or Robin Roberts. He, of course, has more shutouts than Koufax, who had his career shortened, and he has more shutouts than Phil Niekro who pitched forever. He has more shutouts than Three Finger Brown, more than Five Finger And Some Sandpaper Don Sutton, more than Early Wynn, who threw at batter’s fingers.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Lefty Grove, Lefty Gomez, Lefty Hoerst, Lefty Tyler, lefty Hopper, Lefty Williams, Lefty Stewart and any other pitcher named Lefty including Steve Carlton, who was nicknamed Lefty.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Bob Lemon and Jack Morris combined.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina combined.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Whitey Ford and Don Gullett combined.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Bob Feller PLUS Roy Halladay.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Tom Glavine PLUS John Smoltz and you could throw Babe Ruth’s 18 shutouts on top of that and still not get there.

Bert Blyleven has more shutouts than Curt Schilling PLUS Pedro Martinez PLUS Johnny Sain PLUS Two Days of Rain PLUS Roy Oswalt.

Bert Blyleven had more shutouts in 1973 than Johan Santana has in his career.

Let’s put it this way: Since 1920 — the beginning of the lively ball era — Bert Blyleven ranks fourth in shutouts. Only Warren Spahn, Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver have thrown more shutouts. Spahn has three more. Ryan and Seaver each have one more. They are all in the Hall of Fame, first-ballot, never a doubt. I’m just not sure what we are waiting for.

Don’t make me do this same exercise with strikeouts. Because I will.

Not much to add. Bert had it and Joe has it cold. Of course, it is also clear that Joe has no life, though what’s cool is he gets paid to do research like that. Send me a dollar, and I’ll be able to say I live that dream too.

One Down, 43 To Go

Happy New Year. Let’s all assume I’ve got the usual New Year’s resolutions about this blog and get on with 2009’s 1st post.

I’ve made the case here before touting Andre Dawson’s HOF credentials. I don’t get Jim Rice going in before The Hawk. I think that’s about the Boston Whiners. Dawson did it all – hit, hit with power, run, throw.

Dawson got the most votes of anyone who didn’t get in this year. He got 361 votes (67%) with 405 needed for enshrinement. He’s 44 votes short, but he’ll get the Jim Rice spotlight next year, which should help.

Bruce Jenkins voted for Rice, but didn’t vote for Dawson this year. He explained his vote in his column of December 10. On Dawson, he said:

“Confession: I've never been able to make a definitive call on this guy. He does look great in retrospect. Hell, he looked great at the time. It's just that from the very start, in the Montreal outfield with Ellis Valentine and Warren Cromartie, he was short on full-blown recognition. A reluctant no.”

I don’t think that’s a very fair review of Dawson’s credentials. It’s not his fault he played on bad teams and that pitchers had the luxury of pitching around him. Bruce likes to go with his gut, which will result in him voting for more Yankees and Red Sox and nobody from the Expos (he passed on Tim Raines, too). That’s cool, but sometimes you have to look at the statistics to clarify the worthiness of a player who you didn’t see or read about as often. In the wake of the HOF results this month, I sent off this email to the 3-Dot Lounge proprietor:

Subject: My Guy for the HOF

Bruce,

Every year you leave a guy off your HOF ballot who I think is deserving. Here is my
case:

Here are the top 24 all-time total base guys. My guy is #25:

Aaron
Musial
Mays
Bonds
Cobb
Ruth
Rose
Yaz
Murray
Palmeiro
F. Robinson
Winfield
Ripken
Speaker
Gehrig
Brett
Ott
Foxx
Williams
H. Wagner
Molitor
Kaline
Reg. Jackson

Just for fun, #26 and #27 are Yount and Hornsby. Rogers Freaking Hornsby is behind him.

Man, look at that list! These were the kings of the game! Everyone but Bonds, Rose, Palmiero and Griffey are in. You agree that Bonds and Rose deserve it, and clearly Griffey is going in on the first ballot too. Palmeiro probably doesn't meet your "in the gut" test, but ignoring the stench he left under, his numbers are huge. He had 9 straight years with 38 or more homers.

#25 is Andre Dawson.

He's ahead of Hornsby and Banks and Henderson and Mickey. Total bases is a sign of power and consistency and longevity. Every guy on this list can really hit. Jim Rice is way back in the dust on this one.

Let's just throw in a couple of more things: 8 gold gloves and 300+ steals. Jim Rice is a little behind on those ones too. The only guys with more steals on that list above were Mays, Bonds, Cobb, Speaker, Wagner and Molitor.

This is pretty fancy company.

He was the MVP on a last place club, so at least in 1987 he was the best hitter around. That's for the guys who need a gut check.

Remember his all around game - the power, the speed, the arm, the range.

Funny thing - I'm not a particular fan of his. I just think he's due.

Anyone with more total bases than Rogers Hornsby should be in. My corollary, by the way, is that anyone with more career strikeouts than Walter Johnson, who held that record for something like 60 years, should be in - that's my case for Blyleven.

Love your stuff.

Sure enough, I got a quick reply. I’ve found that most writers will reply to emails that have good information and suggestions. Here’s what he said:

“Josh: That's an awfully strong case, and I can't argue with it. I rarely change my vote on someone from year to year, but next year I'm voting for Dawson -- and Alomar...”

All right! One down, 43 to go! Next up – Joe Posnanski. At least Joe agrees with me on Blyleven and Raines, so it’s clear he can be reasoned with. On the other hand, he does make a good point regarding his low OBA. Bruce is right about one thing - sometimes people can take stats too far.