One Down, 43 To Go

Happy New Year. Let’s all assume I’ve got the usual New Year’s resolutions about this blog and get on with 2009’s 1st post.

I’ve made the case here before touting Andre Dawson’s HOF credentials. I don’t get Jim Rice going in before The Hawk. I think that’s about the Boston Whiners. Dawson did it all – hit, hit with power, run, throw.

Dawson got the most votes of anyone who didn’t get in this year. He got 361 votes (67%) with 405 needed for enshrinement. He’s 44 votes short, but he’ll get the Jim Rice spotlight next year, which should help.

Bruce Jenkins voted for Rice, but didn’t vote for Dawson this year. He explained his vote in his column of December 10. On Dawson, he said:

“Confession: I've never been able to make a definitive call on this guy. He does look great in retrospect. Hell, he looked great at the time. It's just that from the very start, in the Montreal outfield with Ellis Valentine and Warren Cromartie, he was short on full-blown recognition. A reluctant no.”

I don’t think that’s a very fair review of Dawson’s credentials. It’s not his fault he played on bad teams and that pitchers had the luxury of pitching around him. Bruce likes to go with his gut, which will result in him voting for more Yankees and Red Sox and nobody from the Expos (he passed on Tim Raines, too). That’s cool, but sometimes you have to look at the statistics to clarify the worthiness of a player who you didn’t see or read about as often. In the wake of the HOF results this month, I sent off this email to the 3-Dot Lounge proprietor:

Subject: My Guy for the HOF

Bruce,

Every year you leave a guy off your HOF ballot who I think is deserving. Here is my
case:

Here are the top 24 all-time total base guys. My guy is #25:

Aaron
Musial
Mays
Bonds
Cobb
Ruth
Rose
Yaz
Murray
Palmeiro
F. Robinson
Winfield
Ripken
Speaker
Gehrig
Brett
Ott
Foxx
Williams
H. Wagner
Molitor
Kaline
Reg. Jackson

Just for fun, #26 and #27 are Yount and Hornsby. Rogers Freaking Hornsby is behind him.

Man, look at that list! These were the kings of the game! Everyone but Bonds, Rose, Palmiero and Griffey are in. You agree that Bonds and Rose deserve it, and clearly Griffey is going in on the first ballot too. Palmeiro probably doesn't meet your "in the gut" test, but ignoring the stench he left under, his numbers are huge. He had 9 straight years with 38 or more homers.

#25 is Andre Dawson.

He's ahead of Hornsby and Banks and Henderson and Mickey. Total bases is a sign of power and consistency and longevity. Every guy on this list can really hit. Jim Rice is way back in the dust on this one.

Let's just throw in a couple of more things: 8 gold gloves and 300+ steals. Jim Rice is a little behind on those ones too. The only guys with more steals on that list above were Mays, Bonds, Cobb, Speaker, Wagner and Molitor.

This is pretty fancy company.

He was the MVP on a last place club, so at least in 1987 he was the best hitter around. That's for the guys who need a gut check.

Remember his all around game - the power, the speed, the arm, the range.

Funny thing - I'm not a particular fan of his. I just think he's due.

Anyone with more total bases than Rogers Hornsby should be in. My corollary, by the way, is that anyone with more career strikeouts than Walter Johnson, who held that record for something like 60 years, should be in - that's my case for Blyleven.

Love your stuff.

Sure enough, I got a quick reply. I’ve found that most writers will reply to emails that have good information and suggestions. Here’s what he said:

“Josh: That's an awfully strong case, and I can't argue with it. I rarely change my vote on someone from year to year, but next year I'm voting for Dawson -- and Alomar...”

All right! One down, 43 to go! Next up – Joe Posnanski. At least Joe agrees with me on Blyleven and Raines, so it’s clear he can be reasoned with. On the other hand, he does make a good point regarding his low OBA. Bruce is right about one thing - sometimes people can take stats too far.