How'd He Do It?

After reading my analysis of the Leaguers, our reigning champion sent me an email asking, basically, “What about me?” Now Boof is going to deny he said this, but I’ve got the email right here:

From: Boof Brittain
To: Sgt. Bilko
Subject: Mr. Leaguer Analysis

What about me?

Boof

There you go. Proof positive.

In a subsequent email he made a good case for an analysis by BABI’s most brilliant commentator. He may deny he called me that, but I’ve got his email right here. If you insist, I’ll reprint it on this blog in the future.

Anyway, he added, “Maybe you can figure out how I won. I’m still trying to figure it out, although I think Pujols had something to do with it… Remember, I lost Pujols, Peavy & Smoltz for an extended period and some at the same time. You really don’t know how close I got to pitching it all in. I made quite a few dump offers and nobody took them. It’s like the saying goes, “The best deals are the ones you don’t make.”

Well, that’s certainly true about deals that Mark offers you.

He’s right – it was quite a comeback. Peavy was on the DL from 5/14-6/12 with right elbow problems, which can be season and/or career ending. Pujols popped his calf (painful and debilitating – I know because I’ve done it 3 times) and was on the DL from 6/10-6/26. And Smoltz ended up having shoulder surgery, which ended his season on April 29 with the exception of 2 days in June when he tried to come back.

Peavy was $34, Pujols $45 and Smoltz $25, for a total of $104 of salary. For 3 days in June their DL stints were overlapping. And I can confirm that he was thinking of throwing in the towel, because he told me that, and he was flashing the Pujols trade card*, though it never got serious.

*Speaking of the Pujols trade card, last summer we did speak about a Pujols trade, but it wasn’t going to be a dump deal. We chatted about Pujols for Webb. Webb was not only the reigning Cy Young winner, but was at that time the clear leader for a repeat. Don’t forget, Webb won his first 9 starts. Meanwhile, despite how well he did last year, Pujols was always at risk of going on the DL for the duration. Mark wanted more. We just wanted to balance. We never got any further, but I found the negotiation interesting – the best hitter for the best starting pitcher. Does anyone else have an opinion?

Peavy came back, and although was only 10-11 on the season, his ERA was 2.85 and his WHIP was 1.18. This was critical in the final race because ERA and WHIP were incredibly close categories among the top 3 teams, and by finishing first in both categories he was able to win the stretch drive. Pujols was only on the DL for that short time, and he finished a phenomenal season (routine for him) with 641 plate appearances. Smoltz was a lost cause, and it certainly hurt to lose him, but recovery, obviously was possible. Had all 3 been history as was rumored, Boof would have been finished.

The Old Rips share one important factor with the Leaguers: they had no expensive keepers who failed miserably. Freddie Sanchez and Matt Diaz disappointed, but they only cost $6 and $2 respectively. Peavy’s low win total meant he underperformed his $34 price tag, but his pristine numbers proved critical to the Rips. And best of all, Boof kept 4 players who ended up with big profits: Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino and Jason Werth, who was 20-20 for 2 bucks. No big mistakes and 4 huge winners.

Smoltz was the one huge mistake in the auction. Riske and Wolf at $13 were both pretty bad. Geoff Jenkins at $17 lost money, but Boof was able to trade him, so he wasn’t that bad of a pick. Mark Reynolds was a mixed bag, but he banged the homers for $21 and his BA didn’t hurt so badly when he was traded. Kent was ok, underperforming at $22, but not that badly.

Boof had a few larger mistakes than Mr. Leaguer, but he also had some monster cheap draft buys. Jim Edmonds hit 20 homers for 2 bucks. I consider that possibly the most outrageous statistic of 2008. Aaron Cook pitched well for the Old Rips for 1 dollar, winning 13 games with excellent numbers (3.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) before Boof traded him to the Lickers and he decided to be the guy nobody wanted to say $2 on (5.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). Ryan Franklin became the closer in St. Louis for a while for a buck, getting 4 wins and 14 saves before he too was traded (and then lost the closer role to Chris Perez). I’d put this trio of cheap guys up against any purchased in 2008 for the value they provided last year.

Where Mr. Leaguer was about not making mistakes, the Old Rips won because they hit it big on some keepers and some guys purchased in the auction. This more than offset the mistakes.

Another factor in the Old Rips’ 2008 success was that they had two of their farm players with big reputations, Clayton Kershaw and Chase Headley, come up from the minors, not suck, and then become valuable trade pieces.

Reviewing the team’s non-trade transactions, most of them were forgettable. John Grabow produced a 7.20 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. However, Ricky Nolasco got 8 wins and posted 3.01-0.94. Ryan Madson was picked up off waivers after the Pecklers unceremoniously dumped him, and he went on to get 2 wins in 6 weeks with a 2.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. )BTW, his numbers in 11.2 innings for us were 5.40 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. We didn’t time him quite as well as Boof.) Russell Branyan had 12 homers and even hit .250 for the Rips’ $13 FAAB bid. Jody Gerut had 13-42-5-.302 for a $12 FAAB bid. It may sound crazy, but 4 useful, normal (less than $20) FAAB pickups in one season is sensational.

And then, when various teams in the league were ready to take a dump, the Old Rips were there, holding a roll of toilet paper.

Six trades - 5 dump deals and a semi-dump. The semi-dump was with Hobo, on July 1, the midway point of the season. Hobo sent Dobbs and Lowe to the Rips for Reynolds and Flash Gordon. Gordon would soon be on the DL for the rest of the season, and possibly his life. Hobo also got the short end (11 of his 28 homers) of Reynolds’ big stick. Lowe was superb for the Rips (9 wins, 2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). Dobbs was Dobbs – he hit a little more than a little, and then Mark sent him back to Hobo later in the season in a true dump deal. Definite plus for the Old Rips.

Deal #2 was with Any 9 on July 22. Any 9 had bought Harden in cross-over FAAB for $85, and immediately packaged him and LaPorta and a bum, for Headley (activated farm), Parra (farm), Matt Diaz (on his way to bumdom) and Tyler Yates (long time resident of bumdom). Classic dump deal, with future players to determine if this is a good deal for Any 9. Harden won 5 games and posted 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Another plus.

Deals #3 and #4 were with the Bums and the Lickers on July 29. The Bums trade was simple: Valverde straight up for Kershaw. Kershaw, an activated farm player, is all future (he pitched OK for the Rips, not so well for the Bums. We assume he’ll be kept by the Bums. Valverde was spectacular in the last 2 months, with 2 wins, 17 saves, 0.76 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. That ERA is not a misprint. Boof sent Cook to the Lickers just in time, packaged with a bum for Tejada and Billinsgley. Tejada was no great shakes (3-17-0-.281) but Billingsley had 6 wins and an ERA of 2.92, WHIP of 1.39. Plus and Plus.

Notice that every deal brought a pitcher who was lights out for the Old Rips. And this mattered because they finished with 43 of 48 pitching points, with the primary competition coming from the closest competition. The perfect 24 points in ERA and WHIP beat the 22 points from All Tease, 18 points from the Leaguers and 17 points from the distant 4th place Pecklers.

Deal #5 was concluded on Bugger the Cartel Day on August 19. Mark got Burrell (didn’t do much), Pierre (the famous French fighter pilot didn’t do much), and Maddux (the 1 pitcher he traded for who absolutely STUNK - 7.16 ERA and 1.55 WHIP) for $1 Franklin (no longer the closer in St. Louis), an injured Geoff Jenkins (at $17 maybe he’ll be kept, and maybe he’ll be somewhere else), a DL’d $1 Jason Schmidt (who knows?) and a non-keeper, Brandon Moss (had the most RBIs of anyone after the deal). Boof gave up almost nothing, and got some big names who produced almost nothing.

Oh, he got one more name, a final throw-in to the deal. Farm prospect Jason Heyward. He was a throw in. One week later Heyward was traded to Hobo in Deal #6 along with the $1 Dobbs for Aramis Ramirez and Stephen Pearce, who was required to be activated. Both guys hit fine, hit a few dingers, hit for decent average. So did Dobbs (his usual, above expectations), but it was a net plus again for the Old Rips.

Boof’s deals were superb for him. He was able to get value for guys like Matt Diaz and Greg Dobbs, as well as young guys he received in trade (Headley and Heyward). And his timing was mystical on Cook and Gordon and Reynolds.

Wanna know how he won? Good keepers. No big mistakes. Decent draft with a few huge cheap winners. Four solid mid-season pickups. And some magical trades.

The Pecklers congratulate him, and would like to remind you all that as usual we didn’t make any trades with him. Don’t blame us.