Mr. Leaguer's Post Mortem

Remember May 2? Here’s the blog for that day?

Meanwhile, Busch Leaguers, 10th place, 41 points, with a grand total of 9 points in pitching. This is not just Gagne. Starting pitching can KILL you. The Leaguers’ starting pitching is killing them. Wolf, Perez, Harang, the bad R. Ortiz (and the good one isn’t all that good!) I don’t think Jeff can fix it. You heard it here.

Two months later:
July 4 Standings:
Any 9 71.5
Pecklers 66.5
Bats 62.5
Hobo 60.5
Cappers 59.5
Leaguers 57.5

Rumors of a trade between the Leaguers and Hobo including Oswalt circulate. The thought that the Leaguers might improve, calls for a PECKLER PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE—a warning of the dire consequences if the Leaguers got Oswalt. Remember this comment?

July 4:
Meanwhile, we have to admit we’re concerned about the Leaguers getting Oswalt. We hope that Hank and Noel know better than to make a deal like that. Oswalt could be worth a dozen points to the Leaguers. If you trade Oswalt, you’ve traded to Jeff one of maybe 5 pitchers in the NL that can make the difference for his team. That could mean big jumps in ERA, WHIP and Wins. Even if Hobo improves their team, they have to be conscious of how much they help a very dangerous competitor. And, although Reggie Sanders is having a career year, he’s going to be 38 this year and he’s always been a first half player. Always. As Sgt. Esterhaus used to say on Hill Street Blues, “be careful out there.”

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Just the facts ma’am

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Roy Oswalt, Busch Leaguers
IP: 112.33
Ratio 1.38
ERA 3.52
Wins 9

Busch Leaguers with Oswalt:
ERA 3.84 9 points
Ratio 1.2961 10 points
Wins 76 4 points

Busch Leaguers without Oswalt:
ERA 3.87 9 points
Ratio 1.2883 10 points
Wins 67 2 points

Difference: 2 points !

To sum up, had the Leaguers received a year-long dead spot instead of Oswalt, they still would have taken first place.

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How did the Leaguers do it? 30% wise moves; 70% luck.

Well behind in the pitching categories, and with a staff that included three starters (Harang, an injured Oliver Perez and a possibly injured Ben Sheets), I needed to take some risks. The top pitchers did not seem available, so I decided to bite the bullet and see if I could trade Lidge for two starters with the potential to revitalize my staff. Mark kept calling, but he wanted more than Lidge for pitching, so I looked towards the Faulkuhns. We had a deal on the table—Lidge and two bum pitchers for Kris Benson, Javier Vazquez and Brazoban. 9 a.m. Tuesday morning, I agree to the deal and call Larry. He says it sounds like a go, and he’ll call me back in 15 minutes. No call. At 10:45 a.m. I made the deal with Mark that ended up winning the league for me. I gave up Lidge, Kyle Davies, Choi, Dubois, and got Maddux, Lowe, Abreu and Todd Jones/Benitez. In retrospect, this was a great deal. But it was not easy for me to pull the trigger. Aside from a $13 07 Lidge, Dubois at $7/07 had 7 hrs and 22 rbis in just 130 AB and looked like he could win a job and be a good keeper. Choi at $10/07 had 13 home runs in 187 AB and had (seemingly) flashed his potential with a monster four day stretch in June during which he hit 7 round trippers. Benitez was out for the year, Todd Jones was 37 years old and had an ERA of over 5 and a ratio over 1.5 over the past 5 years. Maddux had a 4.56 ERA and had given up 15 home runs in 96 innings. Abreu, the sure thing, went 7 hr, 50 rbi,13 sb and .251 BA the rest of the way.

Maddux and Lowe certainly had the potential to perform. But Todd Jones outsaving Lidge 24 to 21? Benitez, who was only included in the trade because he was tied to Jones, saving 14 games in 19 innings? And in the crucial batting average category, the Pecklers fold in September (Jose Guillen .130, Andruw Jones .206, Matt Lawton .133, Sean Casey .240) while the .300 Pounders do them one better (Brian Schneider .147, Loduca .191, Loretta .231, Corey Patterson .178)?

Sometimes you just need the Rotisserie Gods to smile on you.