The Warriors Bet

At the start of the NBA season, the master of BABI, Jeff, made a $50 bet with 3 guys at our poker game that the Warriors would win 30 games this season. In January the bet was good as lost. One of the guys he had a bet with, Mr. Money Asshole Bags, offered Jeff the opportunity to buy back the bet for $40, promissing to pay him $50 if the Warriors somehow miraculously won 30 games. Jeff accepted.

Guess what? The Warriors only have to go 4-7 in their last 11 games to make it. It looks like they are going to make it with ease.

I've been thinking about that buy back offer. Why would Jeff take it only to save ten bucks? Obviously in retrospect, it looks like a horrible mistake. But at the time it almost certainly looked like a sure way to save $10.

Ten bucks. Only ten bucks. What that says to me is when betting for real money, betting isn't about fun, it's about money. We all throw $5 into the NCAA pool for the fun of it. It's not real money. But if you bet on a lot of things, it's about coming out ahead, and ten bucks is part of the formula. Every ten bucks counts. You can't afford to periodically throw away ten bucks, because in those series of ten bucks is your margin for winning. And in the end, winning money, coming out ahead, is what it is about.

True in BABI, too. It's not about 1st place. It's about consistently staying ahead over the long haul. And that's our goal.

So, in conclusion, how 'bout them Warriors?

Player Updates 3/28 Part Deux

The Diamondbacks learned today that Chris Snyder likely would be ready for Opening Day despite a thumb injury. The sprained tendon in Snyder's thumb shouldn't keep him out for more than a few days. It's been decided that both Snyder and Koyie Hill will make the team out of spring training. The Diamondbacks' official site believes Hill will get most of the playing time initially, but we'd still give Snyder the edge for fantasy purposes. The Diamondbacks have informed Kelly Stinnett that he won't make the team. They'll keep Chris Snyder and Koyie Hill as their catchers. A good idea. Stinnett is likely to exercise his right to become a free agent.

Snyder might not be a buck, but he'll be cheap.

Diamondbacks optioned OF-2B Scott Hairston and RHP Lance Cormier to Triple-A Tuscon and reassigned LHP Kevin Tolar to minor league camp. The Diamondbacks probably aren't going to be too much better off with Shawn Green in right field than they would have with Hairston. ''He did everything to make a team,'' manager Bob Melvin said. ''There just wasn't room right now.'' Apparently, something is forcing the Diamondbacks to keep both Luis Terrero and Quinton McCracken.

Is Hairston available in the farm draft? Probably not. Terrero is a good name for the end game, but we may have no OF slots.

Andruw Jones hit his ninth and 10th homers of the spring today in a 12-6 win over the Indians. Jones attributes his terrific spring results to a change in his batting stance. Wille Mays told him to spread his feet wider. ''It's all about feeling comfortable up there,'' Jones said, ''and I feel comfortable.'' We wouldn't count on this being the year that Jones finally becomes an offensive superstar, but he should be worth more than $25 in NL-only leagues.

I think this is Andruw's year. He'll probably be in the high 20's to 30 except for the hype he's getting from his hot spring. He might be a better alternative for than Thome, given he has speed even if he doesn't steal much anymore. And he's a good age.

Mets reassigned RHP Scott Strickland, LHP Scott Stewart and RHP Orber Moreno to minor league camp. The Mets still felt Strickland needed more time to recover from Tommy John surgery. He had allowed one run in three innings this spring. Moreno isn't yet ready to pitch following shoulder surgery.

Ol' "Orber" didn't make it. Who the hell is setting up in Shea?

Freddy Sanchez homered and doubled today for his second and third extra-base hits in 49 at-bats. Sanchez also has just one walk, so his .286 batting average is pretty empty. He'll make the Pirates, but he won't get a lot of playing time initially.

Great $1 MI name at the end of the auction.

Jayson Werth today hit off a tee for the first time since breaking his left wrist 3 1/2 weeks ago. He expects to take batting practice in a day or two. It's probably too late for Werth to begin the season on the active roster, but maybe he won't be too far behind. Ricky Ledee and Jason Repko will share time in left field while Werth is on the DL.

I don't think we even reserve Werth if he goes on the DL.

Available Money at the Auction

At $208 for 15 players, we predict only 2 teams will have more money at the table than us, Lou and Larry.

But on a $/player to be bought basis, we're the richest guys in town. Here's the list:

Pecklers -- 13.9
Alltease -- 13.1
Any 9 -- 9.7
Bats -- 10.5
Bums -- 10.3
Busch -- 10.6
Cappers -- 10.9
Doyle -- 11.9
Hobo -- 11.7
Lou -- 9.7
Pounders - 12.2
Rips -- 8.4

Early inflation knowledge will be the key. And the automated sheets should help.

Hitters v. Pitchers

67.86%. That's our projected allocation to hitters on the sheet. This reflects a total of $2280, or $190 per team in hitting and $90 per team in pitching.

It's the highest allocation to hitting I see out there. The LABR draft was $2178 to hitting, or 64.84%. Hunt is at $2066, or 60.34%. Patton bid prices 65.18%, Patton values 57.42% (absurd), and Rotoworld 63.08%.

Even the small percentage difference from the LABR draft results in $100 extra allocation to pitchers and away from hitters. That's a big deal. So, are we wrong?

We are showing much more inflation toward the pitchers (30.40%) than the hitters (18.10%), which would suggest the opposite. If we allocate an extra $100 in PECK value to the pitchers, that means there will be more keeper profits in the pitchers and less in the hitters than we currently show. There can't possibly be that much disparity.

This year we've got to do a post draft analysis which factors in BABI's hitter/pitcher allocation. I have no idea what it is. But I bet we're more right than the other guys. And if we're not, it means pitchers are going to go for more than we think, particularly during the first 2/3 of the auction. That could cause a problem with our stud pitcher, but we'll get one of those guys because we're not going to see a bunch of $30+ starters. And it could cause a problem with the Lowry spot, but we'll get someone in that vicinity. And the rest of our guys should be near the end, so overall it shouldn't cause us a big problem. Meanwhile, it means we've slightly overpriced the hitters we want, which means we'll get a few of them at prices less than we're expecting.

That result would be OK with me.

Tools

This season we appear to be fascinated by multi-tooled players. Here is a list of players we can expect to generate at least 15 homers and at least 10 steals who will be available at the draft:

Carlos Beltran 30+/30+. Expect a drop in power and steals.
Carlos Lee 30-10. To be determined if the Brewers will let him run.
Derek Lee 30-10. Has increasing power potential, but is stealing less.
Corey Patterson 25-30. We’ve got him targeted. Likely to be a Peckler.
Kaz Matsui 15-20. The only non-outfielder on the list.
Mike Cameron 25-20. BA sucks, but he’s a stat machine.
Matt Lawton 20-20. Seems underappreciated in the new league.
Cliff Floyd 20-10. Promissed 25 steals. Just promise 500 AB’s.
Jose Cruz 20-15. Lost weight in the off season should help speed.
Milton Bradley 15-15. More valuable that many think, and is still young.
Juan Encarnacion 15-10. Poor man’s Reggie Sanders.

This is a short list. Guys like this get kept, even if they are expensive like Bobby Abreu. It is our hope that Jayson Werth has the speed to move into this group.

Matsui is the only player on this list that qualifies at any position other than OF only. We only have 3 OF spots plus Utility even after moving Gonzalez to 2B. So Matsui has got to be on our target list.

The other thing is that most of these players are power hitters with speed rather than the other way around, like say, Rafael Furcal or Rickey Henderson. This makes Beltran and Patterson that much more valuable. In fact, only 4 of the guys above are likely to get 20 steals.

One other common characteristic of the above players is that none of them have the look of .300 hitters. They are mostly .275ish with a few guys lower. And it’s one of the things that really distinguishes Bobby Abreu from the group.

JD Drew would make this list. So did Tony Batista-san last season, who would have been kept at only $12.

SF Bleacher Bums

Doug Moore just sent out an email to the league telling about his trip with Frank down to Las Vegas to participate in what I assume was the World Series of Fantasy Baseball or some such. They are in an NL only league with none other than Meatloaf, who Doug said is a nice guy. If I ever transport this blog to web site that allows photos, I'm going to upload that photo of Doug and Patti and Meatloaf. In fact it's going to be the first picture I put up.

Meanwhile, there is nobody more fun than the Bums, or as Doug says they're going to be known, the S.F. Bleacher Bums. Check out this team they drafted:

The hitters include Metheny, Snow, Durham, Visquel, Alfonso, D. Cruz, Feliz, Bonds, Alou and Tucker. The only non-Giants are Pratt, Bay, Grieve and Thome.

The pitchers include hitters Tomko and virtually the entire Giants middle relief corps, Brower, Christiansen and Eyre. What, no Herges? They've also got Hudson, Wood, Maddux, Leiter, Capellan (interesting $1 pick) and Kolb.

Only these guys would travel to Vegas and plunk down $650 to pick virtually the entire Giants roster. And really, it's not a bad team. They have decent starting pitching (if Wood is healthy sooner than later, it's a pretty good group, actually). They're dumping steals, which is pretty obvious if you are drafting virtually nothing but Giants batters. They should have decent enough everything else, while they work the trade lines to steal Yorvit over.

I've committed to a Vegas run in my first retirement year. Vegas with Doug and Frank. I'd rather go there with them than with Hunter Thompson, RIP.

Minor Speed in a Major Way

Most everyone is going to be conscious of Willy Taveras, he of the over 50 steals in the minors for the last three years. Here is another name I found in BP:

Michael Bourn, 22 year old OF had the following line in the Sallie League for Phily -

413 AB, .315/.431/.467, 5 HR's, 20 D's, 14 T's, 58 SB's, and only 6 CS's.

Might last to the 2nd round. Might not even be noticed.

Auction Strategy - Zig and Zag

I was reading the TMR so-called NL Expert League auction piece. BABI players would tear these guys up. Huge overbidding early, ridiculous bargains at the end, just like the classic rookie type draft. Graves went for $5 and Mesa went for $4; meanwhile Yhency Brazoban went for $8. And this in a non-keeper league.

Mike Bornhorst, who resisted most of the overspending temptation early, had this to say about his strategy:

Personally, I go into every auction prepared to implement one of two strategies: 1) Stars and scrubs; and 2) Total cheapskate, no $30 player-mode. I do this because I think fantasy owners are better off zigging when the majority of the league is zagging. Better to be the owner with a ton of money in the middle rounds if teams are spending $40 for $30 players in the first few rounds. Similarly, if most owners are sitting on their money when the draft starts, then it's best to open up your wallet early - trust me, you want no part of the Geoff Jenkins bidding war; that's not why you saved $150 for the end of your draft. Sometimes the best bargains don't come at the end of the draft, but at the very beginning.

I find this insight truly profound. This is a much more difficult thing to evaluate in a high inflation keeper league like BABI. You've got to have a clear feel for the inflated value of each player, particularly early in the auction. Is $45 a bargain or a ripoff for Beltran in an inflationary setting? You've got to know right away if the league is overspending or underspending, because if you just wait, and it turns out to be the latter, you're going to pay $27 for Geoff Jenkins.

I wonder if Jeff Busch knew or just sensed the relative overspending early. I knew it, but we were too committed to our strategy to buy certain expensive players. This season, we have to be doubly sensitive, because we're keeping 10 for only $72. We've got to spend that money, and we don't want to be chasing Jerry Hariston to $17 half way through the auction. We need to know in the first few picks what the nature of the spending is to project whether there will be middle-round bargains (a bargain generally being defined as a fairly priced player relative to real value).

It makes me rethink our commitment to Thome, which is going to happen pretty early in this auction. Committing to a super-specialist can cause you to lose all flexibility later. The same might be said of Dave Roberts, though the scarcity of steals might justify it. Going after the 4 category guys we like will help us spend the money, and by bying a little of every stat, we retain our flexibility. If Thome is going twice at $34, though, we've got to step up.

I do believe we have the approach relative to analyzing inflation that should allow us to exercise judgement quickly. We just have to have the courage to do so.

One More $30+ Guy

There is one more guy out there who is sure to be bid up over $30: Dave Roberts. He's not going cheap. There are no steals. Repeat. There are no steals.

And particularly there are at this time no steals on the Pecklers. We've got Barrett, Tracy, Bell, Gonzalez, Mohr, Drew and Werth. JD Drew was the only guy on this list with more than 5 steals. Edmonds had more than any of them too. Werth will probably get a few, and Mohr, though a bonehead on the bases, could probably get a few, but this is a slow group. And they represent 7 of the 15 players we're going to purchase. Assume a typical 2nd catcher and Jim Thome (or another slow 1B), and virtually all of our steals are going to have to come from the last 6 guys we buy. We've got Patterson and Lawton in mind, but that's not going to be enough. And we may not get them. Assuming we pass on Beltran and Abreu is not available, we've got to at least consider Roberts.

Bidding on Roberts could easily turn into a war. Personally, I don't think he's worth it. But we're going to have to find another guy who can bag 20 steals somewhere. And THAT is a short list. And that may be the thing that justifies the big price on Beltran. Figure he's worth 33 as a SB guy alone. The power numbers (and they will be smaller in Shea than in Enron Park) have got to be worth another 12-15. It's possible people will faint above $45. But of course, it only takes 2 teams to make a mess of things.

I'm considering a preemptive $45 bid on Beltran. It's a Barry-like move. I don't think it will work, but if we get him there, we've got to be happy. And if we don't, well it ought to get interesting. And it will be an indication of how ugly the bidding is going to get on Roberts.

Done Deal

(Note: I wrote this without seeing Seth's analysis below. Bell is only $4, so we've got 10 for $72, not $73.)

Book the trade: our best player, Jim Edmonds, to the Cappers for Chad Tracy (5-06), Dustan Mohr (5-06) and Jesse Foppert (3-06). In expectation of our deal getting done, George swapped Sean Casey and Luis Ayala to the Cartel for Craig Wilson.

He threw in Foppert, who we don't really need, but might use in a trade when Seth successfully suggested that he couldn't take a chance that Foppert would be sent down between cutdown day and draft day. This is a small possibility, but significant for George who can keep Kip Wells instead. To be honest, we would have done the deal without Foppert, and were prepared to ask for Schneider instead when he accepted. It's probably not significant since both teams likely would have thrown him back into the pool.

George made the deal with Doyle to get a cheaper keeper with more flexibility (1B/OF plus who knows if he'll play catcher this year) and with more power than Sean Casey who principally provides BA and RBI. By obtaining Edmonds, who hit .300 last year, he protected the loss of BA by giving up Casey, saved $5 and got a nicely priced stud. George's team now looks like: Freel, Lane, Wilson (bump 5), Castilla (bump 5), Reyes (bump 5), Edmonds, Mota (bump 5 or 10), Hoffman (bump 5), Burnett and either Wells or Guzman depending on Guzman's status. A total of 91 (or 88 with Guzman) plus probably $30 in bumps for 121 for 10 good players. He's got speed, power, 2 closers and likely 2 starters, plus 2 1st round picks to boot. This team is a contender.

Doyle got Ayala thrown in. We would have bid up Ayala, but he's probably going to keep him. He's desperate for saves, though the Borowski pickup is looking more interesting. Ayala might end up the closer in DC, who knows. Casey is a little better than Wilson with potential power improvement, though a little more expensive. He's got to extend him to 19. Greg's got one of the toughest keeper lists to predict. Presumably Casey, Wilson, Cabrera (bump 10), Borowski (maybe bump 5?) and Otsuka for sure, and then a list of maybes led by Branyan at 7 (looking good in spring training so probably), Walker at 9 (ok, he's probably a sure thing), Castillo (I wouldn't do it, but maybe), Livan (not me at 17) and Ayala. This team has a ways to go, and Greg will be under pressure at the draft.

Meanwhile, back at the Pickle Ranch, our 10 looks set with Foppert and Hardy in reserve: 7 hitters (Barrett, Bell, Tracy, Mohr, Drew, Werth and Gonzalez maybe sliding into the infield) and 3 pitchers (Tomko, Suppan and Looper). 7 hitters for 39, 3 pitchers for 33, $72 for 10 players. Everyone but Gonzalez is a starter, and Luis will get at least 350 at bats. We're going to have to spend some serious money on big players, including one boomer (maybe Thome), a stud starter (we like Hudson and Oswalt), and some speed. We can chase anyone with that kind of money to spend. We've got about $150 to spend on only 8 hitters, and we expect to buy 3 cheap ones in there (catcher, MI and UT) so that's 140 to spend on 5 hitters, an average of $28. We'll be noisy early. We have the potential with a great draft, so it's all about player evaluation from here.

Mohr-on and Hanging Chad

Since we're looking at trading for Dustin Mohr and Chad Tracy, here are a couple of recent comments from the web sites of the Rockies and the Diamondbacks:

The lead article today at the Colorado Rockies website was on Mohr, who we best remember for his sensation catch against the Padres in the 9th inning when he tripped over the bullpen pitchers' mound, wrenched his knee while catching the ball, costing the Giants the game when the runner scored the winning run from third base.

There's little chance of the Rockies bringing in an established talent. The challenge will come from the minor league system. Left-handed hitting Brad Hawpe struggled to start Spring Training, but he hit 31 home runs in Triple-A last year and could be ready to buck for playing time.

But Mohr's versatility helps. He could move to center if Preston Wilson is injured or dealt. Also, the Rockies like the fact that he wants to be more than a one-and-done player.

"One of the issues we really highlighted, and one of the parts of the plan we wanted to put in this winter is anything we talked about for '05 would have to have some meaning for '06 and further down the road," Rockies manager Clint Hurdle said.

Maybe Mohr stays put in Colorado next year, increasing his value.

On the D'Backs website, they caught up with Mark Grace:

A four-time Gold Glove winner, former Arizona first baseman Mark Grace is tutoring Tracy this spring on the nuances of playing first. Perhaps fittingly, Tracy's swing has been likened to that of Grace, who hit for a high average with plenty of doubles and not a lot of home runs during his long career.

"He can hit," Grace said of Tracy. "This kid's going to be a .300 hitter. Honestly, I think he's going to be a lot like I was in my heyday. He's going to hit a lot of doubles. He'll hit 10 to 15 home runs. I don't want him to change that line-drive stroke. A line-drive stroke is a great thing."

He will be hard to extend, just like Grace was, if he doesn't show more power, though he could drive in runs in that lineup. He stole all of 2 bags last year, so he won't be much of a speed guy. He'll qualify at both corner positions the day after the auction.

Dickering with Geo

We've opened the negotiations with the Cappers for his depth. With the #1 and #7 picks, he's not interested in the minor league draft. He's interested in a stud at a great price. Well, we've only got one of those kind of guys, Jim Edmonds at $29-06. George is interested in Edmonds - he asked for him. The key to dealing with George (and really everyone) is to find out what they want, offer it, and ask a lot for it. George is an experienced player, who has actually won this thing once, so we're not going to talk him into anything. If he wants Edmonds, well, we're not married to the guy.

He confirmed he's going to keep Casey, Freel, Lane, Castilla, Mota, Hoffman, Burnett, Reyes, Wells and Foppert. He's thinking seriously about Guzman if he ends up on the major league DL (probably will, so that's another spot). That means Tracy and Mohr (who he offered) are available, along with Schneider, Ayala, and one or possibly two of the guys from the list of 10, since Edmonds would step into one spot and possibly Guzman the second spot.

It's a great deal for George, who has a great keeper list, and gets to add a well priced stud who even stole 8 bases last season. He's got good, cheap keepers and needs to spend money on some expensive players. And he's giving up guys who are worth nothing to him.

For us, Edmonds is a great player who is right at the top of his value. For us to move him for younger, cheaper parts is an opportunity to sell high. We won't be able to buy a big hitter for Edmonds' price (which is why George wants him). We've already asked for Foppert in addition to Tracy and Mohr. We'll see, but if he balks we'll ask for Wells and call it a day.

We don't actually need Foppert or Wells. We probably can't find a place on the roster for either of them. It's looking like David Bell will be back this weekend, so our keeper list would be Barrett, Tracy (CI), Bell (3B), Gonzalez, Drew, Mohr, Drew, Werth, Tomko, Suppan and Looper. That's only $72 for 10 players. No space for JJ Hardy if he makes the team. No room for Valverde, though we'd only keep him if officially annointed the closer.

And we'd have to buy some seriously expensive guys. In fact, we could afford Beltran if we want him. Here's a snapshot of us buying Beltran, Hudson, Thome, and Patterson, all for $30+ that falls just short, but would be tweakable:

C Barrett 3
C 2
1B Thome 38
2B Gonzo 1
SS 5
3B Bell 4
MI 3
CI Tracy 5
O1 Drew 20
O2 Patterson 33
O3 Lawton 25
O4 Werth 1
O5 Mohr 5
O6 Beltran 48
U 2
HITTERS 197
P1 Tomko 5
P2 Suppan 3
P3 Lowry 10
P4 Hudson 30
P5 4
P6 3
P7 3
P8 2
P9 2
P10 Looper 25
PITCHERS 87
TOTAL 284

This list has power and speed, decent numbers if we pick well among the middle relievers, one closer (fixable later in the season). There are 3 4-category players here. Might be a little light on BA, but again that's fixable as there are no Tony Batistas here. And there are a lot of guys right at the start of their prime years.

As for the extra player, it would be tradable. But we're not going to kill this deal over a guy we don't need. And we'll hope for Hardy to start at AAA, which he should. We could be a contendah.

Baseball Prospectus

It's all been crap out there, until my pal Rocky Lane dropped off a doorstop of a book, the Baseball Prospectus 2005. Two inches thick and just loaded with incomprehensible statistics, it has fabulous, hilarious and even some negative descriptions for the players of MLB.

I flipped it open randomly, and facing me on page 15 was the writeup for Sergio Santos, prospect of both the DBacks and the Pickled Pecklers.

We admit we're not scouts. Having spoken with a number of real scouts, we can say they're good at spotting things. They're trained. They're professionals. We can argue about what role scouting is going to play in an organization, but no one at BP is a scout. And yet unlike Diamondbacks' scouts, it's almost impossible for us to watch Serio Santos and believe that he's ever going to be able to play a passable shortstop. There's no economy of motion, no instincts. You know how Gabe Kapler looks when he's playing defense? Kind of like Arnold Schwarzenegger in one of the Conan movies, with a kind of hypermechanical, MC Escher quality to his movement. Kapler can get by with that in the outfield, but Santos, in the infield, looks like a complete disaster. But that only goes to his ability to play shortstop. He's got a nice bat, puts a lot of energy into his swing, and held his own in Double-A at the age of 21. He's got a chance to be a good one if he can find somewhere else to play. It's bad enough we have to watch Derek Jeter play shortstop. Lord, save us from Santos.

Now that's writing! Better than Alex Patton's wonderful old books (bring 'em back, Alex, you're a shell of your former self) because the oauther is willing to take serious time like that while being completely negative. It sounds like....me!

Baseball Prospectus 2005. A winner.

Sports Weekly Fantasy Guide

What a piece of ....

The fantasy guide has been a great source of information to us, in particularly the values in the LABR NL draft. This guide has nothing to do with roto and values. It's all about fantasy drafts, and has nothing but a bunch of old information. Here's an example:

Preston Wilson, Rockies

Wilson had a breakthrough season in 2003, leading the NL with 141 RBI and reaching career bests in home runs and average. In 2004, he had knee surgery in April, and his offensive numbers suffered. Check on his health during spring training; if he's good to go, move him up on your draft board.

Wow, isn't that useful information. Is this information for the fantasy draft in Mrs. Rogozinski's 4th grade class?

The only reference to values is Alex Patton's figures on one page in the back. The same Alex Patton who's figures add up to around $700 too much.

And there are no projections of stats. The guide always had John Hunt's stat projections as well as his values. John Hunt wrote NOTHING for this guide.

What a waste of money.

First Draft, 2005 PP's

Here is a peak at strategy #1 for us. No expensive starters. A bunch of decent relievers in the 2-6 range who won't hurt, maybe including Ayala. Chase no potential closers to double digits. Get a boomer (Thome, the ultimate) and a couple of younger potential 4 category guys like Patterson and Lawton.

C Barrett 3
C 4
1B Thome 38
2B 5
SS Hardy 5
3B Bell 4
MI Cintron 5
CI 22
O1 Edmonds 29
O2 Drew 20
O3 Patterson 32
O4 Werth 1
O5 Gonzalez 1
O6 Lawton 23
U 17
HITTERS 209

P1 Tomko 5
P2 Suppan 3
P3 Lowry 10
P4 Willis 12
P5 4
P6 3
P7 3
P8 3
P9 3
P10 Looper 25
PITCHERS 71

TOTAL 280

Conclusion: There are no cheap hitters like Werth and Gonzalez were last year. We need a spot for at least 1. Gonzalez can move to 2nd and we can buy a $5 OF'er like Terrero for some cheap speed. We could cheat the Utility and buy an expensive starter instead of someone like Willis. We could also arguably pay up for Beltran instead of say Patterson. Also we could go cheaper than Thome for power to pay up for something else. Like the Giants, the key is will the starters kill us? Lots of hitting here.

Projections - Hitters

Patton has the hitters at a total of 2441. Our target is 2280. Not as bad as the pitchers, but still 161 to high.

Rotoworld was actually at 2120, so the total with the pitchers (1273) is 3393, or only 33 too high. In the end, we just don't like the pitcher-hitter weighting.

I've entered the preliminary values. Next step, time to refine a little, then work on the inflation number.

I have a vision of a huge draft day spreadsheet, tracking each team, their profits, their overspending relative to inflation, and league totals. It's a vision.

Player Notes 3/9

Padres center field prospect Freddy Guzman could be out for the season because of an elbow surgery. He will miss at least a few weeks, probably more, while the Padres decide if Guzman requires reconstructive surgery. He has a damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. If Guzman undergoes surgery, Xavier Nady could become the top option in center in the event of a Dave Roberts injury. Mar. 9 - 11:34 am et

Nady could be real cheap, particularly hitting in San Diego.

Cliff Floyd says he wants to steal 20-25 bases this season under Willie Randolph's green light philosophy. Well, that would certainly be a surprising development. Floyd has stole 14 bases the last two seasons while battling constant injuries. He stole a bag in Tuesday's game successfully. Mar. 9 - 11:23 am et

Yeah, right. And Piazza’s going to get a dozen.

GM Paul DePodesta said starters Odalis Perez and Brad Penny, both struggling with biceps injuries, might not be ready to start the season. L.A. is getting Scott Erickson and Edwin Jackson prepared in the event this happens. Perhaps DePodesta is just being cautious, but Perez is at least a week from appearing in a game. Mar. 9 - 11:05

Those are Busch and Bums keepers. Meanwhile, Any 9 may have to make a decision on Jackson.

Joe Kennedy believes his shoulder is strong after winter workouts. The test, of course, will be how it feels a few months from now. Denver's Opening Day starter will make his second spring appearance today. Mar. 9 - 10:17 am et

He can pitch. If he were on the Giants’ staff he’d go for 5-10. Do we dare say a buck?

Brian Fuentes gave up a cycle of hits Monday in one inning of work. The top candidates for Denver's closer job, Fuentes, Eddie Gaillard and Chin-Hui Tsao, have struggled thus far in spring. Gaillard has a 23.14 ERA. At this point, it looks like Tsao could win the job by default. Mar. 9 - 10:08 am et

Somebody’s going to overpay for General Tsao and his chicken.

Greg Aquino, who has been bothered by an elbow strain, pitched a bullpen session Tuesday with no complications. It sounds like he's not far away from pitching in games. Aquino may need a solid spring to keep his closer's job, especially if Jose Valverde pitches well. Mar. 9 - 9:29 am et

Jose Valverde worked a perfect eighth innings today against the Athletics. Quite an improvement over his first outing, when he was charged with five runs in two-thirds of an inning. Valverde, returning from a partially torn labrum, will likely open the season as Greg Aquino's setup man. Mar. 8 - 9:18 pm et

A good day for the good guys holding the rights to Valverde.

Luis Terrero, who left Monday's game with a bruised tailbone, should return to the Diamondbacks lineup today. Terrero looks like the fourth outfielder in Arizona currently. If he gets enough at-bats due to injuries, he could provide double-digit steals. Mar. 9 - 9:26 am et

Could be a source of cheap steals.

Conor Jackson homered, singled and was hit by a pitch in Arizona's 10-2 win today. Jackson is 4-for-10. He's getting most of his playing time at first, which figures to be his position in the minors this season. He's only a year away. Mar. 8 - 9:26 pm et

1st round minor league???

Noah Lowry bounced back from a rough first outing to hold the Rangers to one hit in three shutout innings today. We remain unimpressed by Lowry's curve, but his change is an excellent pitch, especially against right-handers and hitters that haven't seen him before, both of which describe most of the players in the Rangers lineup today. We're not very optimistic about his chances of remaining a quality starting pitcher. Mar. 8 - 5:45 pm et

We’ve seen him. He can pitch. And he may go cheap, though maybe not in a league based in SF.

Brandon Claussen beat the Pirates by throwing three scoreless innings today. Claussen hasn't allowed a run in five innings. Although technically there are five pitchers competing for the final two spots in the Cincinnati rotation, the way we see it, Aaron Harang is close to a lock for the fourth spot and Luke Hudson and Claussen are the top candidates for the last opening, with the loser working in middle relief initially. If Claussen's strong spring continues, he could pass Hudson and become a nifty $1-$2 pick in NL-only leagues. Mar. 8 - 5:15 pm et

Good name for the end of the draft, though I think we’ll be looking at relievers then.

Vincente Padilla (triceps) continues to work on long tosses, but his availability for Opening Day remains in doubt. Manager Charlie Manuel says he will have a better idea about Padilla by next week. Mar. 8 - 9:29 am et

Forget him. He’s somehow turned into Old Guy.

Jason Marquis is debuting a new curve that will give him a ''swing and miss'' pitch he's never had.Marquis got a strikeout on a nasty curve using the pitch on Monday. Even a few more strikeouts would help Marquis provide more value in fantasy leagues this season. Mar. 8 - 8:45 am et

Uh huh. Is this from the same guy who was hyping Volglesong last year?

Nationals GM Jim Bowden says ''It'd be real hard for me to trade a guy like (Sledge)... because they don't come around very often.'' Sledge played first base on Monday, where he could spell Nick Johnson occasionally during the season. Manager Frank Robinson has told Sledge to ignore the trade rumors surrounding him. While it's uncertain if he'll have a spot to start on Opening Day, he should get his at-bats eventually. Mar. 8 - 8:36 am et

Player. Keeper.

Sergio Santos got a start at third base tonight and went 1-for-3. It's not a position switch, at least not according to the Diamondbacks. They're just giving Santos some time at third in order to allow Alex Cintron more reps at short. Santos is expected to remain a shortstop in the minors this year. Mar. 8 - 1:47 am et

Nice to see his name. AAA this year?

Rule 5 pick D.J. Houlton pitched three hitless innings tonight in the Dodgers' win over the Marlins. He fanned five. ''That was very, very impressive,'' manager Jim Tracy said. ''He threw strikes with all his pitches. He was aggressive with all his pitches. His curveball was as good as Josh Beckett's.'' Well, that might be a little generous. Houlton still doesn't seem very likely to make the Dodgers, but if he continues to retire batters this spring, another team may claim him off waivers. Mar. 7 - 11:40 pm et

There is a name from absolutely nowhere. Let’s remember it, particularly in the 2nd round of the minor league draft.

Kieschnik's Cousin

From Rotoworld today:

Rick Ankiel will attempt to convert to a full-time outfielder, effective immediately.That was sudden. Ankiel looked great last September, but says his mechanics were scrambled when he injured his elbow in winter ball. Ankiel was quite erractic early this spring. ''This whole time, that frustration has built up. I just really felt like it was eroding my spirits and starting to affect my personality off the field as well,'' Ankiel said Tuesday. Ankiel is out of options, so he'll need to make the team as an outfielder or get cut. Given the circumstances, it's a lot more likely that he'll be able to clear waivers now. Mar. 9 - 11:43 am et

I just wonder if TQ Stats will be able to handle this. Also, what's a throw from deep centerfield to the plate from Ankiel going to look like?

Projection Accuracy

I don't have lots of time this week to blog, as my baseball minutes are focused on getting the first draft of the analysis on "The Sheets", so we'll keep it short for a few days and hope the Doc pitches in.

Meanwhile, in reviewing the values of our pal Alex Patton (we don't actually know him, but we love him) and Rotoworld, I'm finding a problem. A big problem.

Patton's top 120 pitchers has a total value of $1,849. Rotoworld is at $1,273, and they've got a bunch of zero guys in there. You can't bid less than a buck.

Our target is $1,080, or 12 teams x $90, which is 32.14% of the auction pool, assuming every dollar is spent, which it won't be. Someone's going to finish with $6 or so. I guess you could argue a little higher, but 1/3-2/3 is pretty standard between pitching and hitting, so we've got to be in the right ballpark.

So, Alex, how do you justify 71% more? His bid number, which also has a bunch of zeros, is $1,194, which I guess is in the general ballpark, but the allocation has got to make sense.

That means that many pitchers are worth WAY less than Alex and RW think. I put my numbers in for value and came out about $300 too high, so I started cutting, hard. Gagne from 36 to 32 (Patton says 43). Lidge from 35 to 29 (Patton says 45). Hudson from 29 to 23 (Patton says 35). All down the line with Lowry down from 11 to 6 (Patton says 9). The average cut was over $2. And now there are a lot more 1's.

This means that there is a little less inflation than we think. Accurate values and accurate inflation values are the keys to good performance in the auction. All I can say is watch out for the Pecklers in the first year I retire, because I'm going to really have time to do this as well as to take a little trip to Arizona.

The Other Guys

Since I've got to work on "The Sheets", I'd better summarize the keeper situation for the other 5 teams I've avoided comment on.

All Tease Falkuhns:

• Mike Lowell 23-05. No extension here. Larry's been trying to trade him with no luck.
• Aaron Miles 10-06. Some services are predicting over 500 AB's. We'll see.
• Jose Castillo 2-06. Should improve a little.
• Termell Sledge 8-06. Not sure where he's going to play, but should get plenty of AB's.
• Kent Benson 8-06. I don't like this guy, but he's worth $8 and has some upside.
• Dan Kolb 6-05x. The only great bargain, worth 25+.
• Toma Okha 2-06. A lot of upside here. Only keep him if his spring goes well.

There are a few others who are possible, icnluding Marlon Byrd 12-05, Ken Griffey 23-06, Yancey Brazoban 5-06x and Tony Torcato 1-06. We don't think they go for any more than these amounts, though if Griffey looks good in the spring, we'd think about it.

Any 9:

• Adam Laroche 9-06. He's got good power.
• David Wright 5-06F. I wonder if he's as good as he looked last year. And he DID look good!
• Juan Pierre 31-05. Ken is considering extending him. He's actually had more steals than I realized - 47, 65 and 45 in the last 3 years, and had a strong 2nd half last year. My initial thought was no, but now I say yes to a .300+ hitter who may lead the league in steals.
• Austin Kearns 15-05C. Not worth breaking the contract.
• Craig Biggio 13-06. Replaced his speed with extra power last year. Reminiscent of Marquis Grissom. And he'll qualify at 2nd base somewhere along the way this year.
• Moises Alou 21-06. He'll probably have less homeruns (though Rich Aurilia hit 37 at Pac Bell), but should have plenty of RBI's.
• Todd Worrell 4-06. A good price if he gets no saves at all.
• Jason Isringhausen 26-05. Signed a contract last week. Fair price for a decent closer on the best NL team.
• Mike Adams 6-06x. Lucky bastard.

That's 9 players for 130, plus maybe 5 more for Pierre. Closser at 11, Edwin Jackson at 5, and Koplove at 3 are all possibilities I'd pass on. Gotta watch Closser, though. OK list, but Adams is the only bargain.

Bats:

• Todd Greene 3-06. 10 homers 3 straight years. Not many AB's or RBI's, though.
• Derek Lee 34-06. Not everyone would keep him, but he's a good candidate to hit 40 homers for the first time this season. Adds a few bags, and should have plenty of RBI's.
• Aramis Ramirez 29-06. See Lee above, except the 40 homer remark. One thing about the two of them is that they both have 06, not 05 contracts.
• Morgan Ensberg 3-05. Disappointing last year, but he didn't stink. I'd extend him to 8.
• Marcus Giles 10-05. Another extension, to 15.
• Alex Gonzalez (Fla) 1-05. And one more extension, to 6.
• Jimmy Rollins 27-06. He's only 26, and this could be the breakout year. Steals are a bitch in the NL. And he's got an 06 contract. I'd be less likely to keep him if he was 05.
• Rob Mackowiak 3-06. He loved this pick. Nice cheap player.
• Mark Prior 15-05C. End of the contract.
• Tom Glavine 8-06. I'd take my chance at that price, despite his bad 2nd half.

That's 135 for 10 players plus 15 more for 3 extensions. Barry's not going to be a big bidder in the auction, but he's got a lot of good players here. No closer, though.

Doyle Cartel:

• Craig Wilson 9-05. I'd extend him if he qualified at catcher, but he's 1B/OF only now.
• Todd Walker 9-06. No bargain, but he's a starter.
• Jack Wilson 8-06. See Walker.
• Miguel Cabera 10-05. Extend to 20. Superstar.
• Tike Redman 15-05X. Worth it for the steals. Barely.
• Josh Beckett 15-05C. Last year of contract.
• Akinori Otsuka 2-06. Good price, good stuff, good park.
• Joe Borowski 2-05. Must like him or must not think much of that #1 draft pick. Can't imagine he'll extend him. Well, I can't imagine that I'd extend him, but maybe Greg will.
• Richie Weeks 05-F. If he makes the team.

That's only 70 for 8 plus 10 for Cabrera plus 5 for Weeks. I'd pass on Castillo at 27 (doesn't steal enough anymore) and Hamption and Hernandez. Branyan at 7 is a maybe, but they're pumping up Wes Helms in the news lately.

.300 Pounders:

• Johnny Estrada 11-06. Some wouldn't keep him, but I think it's a no brainer.
• Phil Nevin 6-05. Extend to 11, I guess.
• Lyle Overbay 9-05. Gotta go to 14.
• Geoff Jenkins 18-05. I wouldn't extend.
• Brady Clark 10-06. Candidate to jump to 30 steals.
• Jeff Weaver 8-06. Decent starter, decent price, good ballpark.
• Carlos Zambrano 3-05. Gotta go to 8. Gotta consider 13, though I'd pass on any starter.
• Julian Tavarez 1-06. Whacko, but no doubter.
• Jerome Williams 5-05F, No extension, but he paid $132 for this guy.
• Chris Burke 10-F. He's supposed to start. I'd keep him for sure at $5. Not so sure at $10.

If not Burke, there is Franco at $1, Gryboski at $1 and Alvarez at $3, all possibles. That's 71 for 9 plus 5 for Nevin and 5 for Overbay. Kevin is going to have some money at the table. And more if he throws Burke back and keeps one of the cheap guys.

The Sheets

I've received the first working draft from the Doc of "The Sheets", hitters only. At last, I can begin to apply my sensational accounting skills to pages of numbers which will eventually turn into "The PP Auction Plan."

It occurs to me that I'll have to finish my team keeper analyses. Actually, I've done the easy ones already. I've got to get on with the teams will weak lists where the decision to keep is marginal. That includes the Cartel (with newly acquired Joe Borowski, if George's check doesn't bounce), the Pounders, Bats, Any 9 and maybe the Falkuhns.

The goal is to end up with a list of 180 hitters and 120 pitchers with proper inflated salaries taking into account keeper prices. The hitters must include 25 catchers and an appropriate allocation of all positions. Minimum salary is $1.

I love this work. I just wish I wasn't so busy.

P.S. Mark and Ken think Borowski is on the Cubs' closer possible list. I don't care how good he looked yesterday, he won't be closing there. #1 pick? Nuts.

Artillery Fire

With their recent acquisition of Todd Helton (panned in this space), Hobo looks to have 10 fairly sure keepers and a choice of backups:

• Brad Wilkerson 13-05C. His BA has been disapointing, but he hit 32 homers and had 13 SB's to boot. What's the deal with only 67 RBI's in 572 AB's for a guy who had 32 dingers? Is that some kind of strange record?
• Mark Loretta 6-05C. Last year of a contract for a guy who has really come into his own at a late age (he's 33). He hit .335 in 620 AB's. I wonder if his BA was worth more than Barry's .362? (See Ichiro piece)
• Adam Everett 6-06. Maybe they won't keep him, but he's 27 and he's now a starter. He can hit and he's in a good hitters park.
• Cesar Izturis 5-06. He was the surprise of 2004. Serious steals for only $5.
• Scott Hairston 5-06F. Maybe they won't keep him, but they'd be crazy not to. He hit 13 homers in half a season, and he's only going to be 25 in May. That's a crowded infield, though.
• Todd Helton 39-5. Their hitting keepers are pretty cheap, so they certainly can afford him, but only for this year.
• Danny Graves 9-5. I'm in the minority here (my partner doesn't even agree) but I wouldn't extend him. He could be anywhere in July. Or next season. Meanwhile, he'll earn his $9 by Flag Day. They're trying desperately to trade him before the auction. Word is the Cartel wouldn't part with Cabrera, as they shouldn't.
• Chris Carpenter 1-6.Probably the pitching find of 2004. Great pick. He'll be one of those rare starting pitchers to extend next year. If, of course, he doesn't suck this year.
• Latroy Hawkins 14-06. They've got to keep him. He's going to start as the closer, though he may not end up that way. But at 14, it's a no brainer. Hold your breath.
• Chad Cordero 14-06. He's got it. I still don't understand why Luis Ayala hasn't gotten a chance. He had ERA's of 2.92 and 2.69 the last 2 years and WHIP's of 1.10 and 1.18. He's only walked 28 guys in the last 2 seasons in a total of 161 innings. I want that guy.

It's a nice team. Closers to deal, though only one starter. Hitting and speed and money to spend. $112 for 10 players (plus probably an extra $5 for Graves). And good players, with some youth and a fair number of 06 contracts. They could make a run, but they'd better get decent starting pitching. As should we all.

Sunday 3/6 Player Notes from Rotoworld

Josh Fogg pitched two scoreless innings against Minnesota yesterday, setting down the final six batters he faced. ''He threw the ball pretty decent,'' Pittsburgh manager Lloyd McClendon said. ''I thought he had some good changeups, commanded the fastball pretty well. I was very pleased.'' Fogg had a disappointing 2004 season, but did post a 3.42 ERA in the second half. He is slated to be the Pirates' fourth starter.

--Some day this guy is going to be good.

Darrell May was perfect for two innings against the Giants today. Although May was dropped from the Padres' 40-man roster, he's almost certain to be the Padres' fifth starter. A decent spring would make him a sleeper.

--A $1 sleeper in a great pitchers’ park.

Jose Valverde was tagged for five runs in two-thirds of an inning today. Valverde walked two and gave up three hits, including Carl Everett's grand slam. The early reports were good, but he still has some work to do in order to show that he's overcome his partially torn labrum.

--I still don’t like his throwing motion.

Dontrelle Willis, who gave up six runs in his start against the University of Miami, bounced back today with four scoreless innings against the Cardinals. Willis got into trouble in third, but with the bases loaded, left fielder Miguel Cabrera made a nice catch on Albert Pujols' liner. He struck out one and walked none, though he did hit David Eckstein.

--Eckstein probably deserved it.

Terrmel Sledge hit a two-run homer and singled in a third run after replacing Jose Guillen in right field today. It's unclear whether Sledge has any real chance of winning a spot in the Opening Day lineup. Still, it's worth drafting him and hoping that he'll play regularly later on. Endy Chavez isn't likely to get that much better and Nick Johnson remains a health risk.

--I assume he’ll be kept.

Roy Oswalt retired all six batters he faced today against the Braves. He struck out Roosevelt Brown to conclude the outing. ''When you have a special arm, you can see it,'' manager Phil Garner said, ''It's just quicker than anybody else's. He was surprisingly sharp, I would think, for his first outing.''

--He’ll be expensive. But probably worth it. We should consider him.

Aaron Miles suffered a sprained MCL Friday while trying to turn a double play. Friend and former minor league teammate Willie Harris slid cleanly into Miles. The Colorado medical staff does not believe Miles' ligament is torn, but he is expected to be out several days. Manager Clint Hurdle said the team would know more today.

--This is important in re: Luis Gonzalez.

David Bell (back) said he expects to be ready for the season opener April 4. Bell is under doctors orders not to play until March 24, but believes he can get ready to play in the 11 days following that. Given Bell's history with back problems, we're still not convinced that Placido Polanco's won't be the Opening Day third baseman.

--I guess we’ve got to keep him.

Jose Reyes went 2-for-4 and stole third base twice yesterday. We're doing our fair share of knocking on wood, but this is starting to get exciting for those of us who own Reyes in keeper leagues.

--George has to extend him.

The Bottom Line

I've been thinking hard and long about how success is defined in BABI. The Pickled Pecklers joined BABI in 1994, making this our 12th season in the league. In that time we've finished 2nd twice, third once, in the middle probably about 4 times and out of the money about 4 times. That might be 3 and 5. Who knows?

I think we're considered pretty good players, and the Doc is an excellent player, having with George won BARB last year. Up until now, our only strategy is to find a way to finish first. Not many have done it, and we really only came close once, in our second season. We led the league from wire to almost wire, getting destroyed by injuries in September. It seemed pretty easy then, but it has not been. So we have not been successful based on our definition of BABI success.

I suspect Jeff Busch defines that success differently. Of course, having won the league a couple of thousand times, that might be easy for him. But I bet if you posed the question to him, he would answer simply, "to make money over the long run."

Net winners. It's how you define all gambling success. You don't have to win the World Series of Poker to be a successful poker player by this standard. This week I couldn't draw a hand in our monthly poker game, losing a buck ninety. I only won 3-half pots, two with garbage. Given the cards I drew, I actually played pretty well to limit my losses. Over the past year, I've probably made a little more than I lost. This week's massacre is just part of the bigger picture.

I don't know if we've been net winners or losers in BABI since 1994. My guess is pretty close to even, but probably slightly behind. If we finish in the top two this year we'll probably be a little ahead. But we've never really played to make money. We've always played to finish first.

As a result, we've made some transactional moves that cost us money for even the most minor edge. We've reserved players we were unlikely to reactivate or keep in the future just to have the option of doing so. Last season we picked up some players like Pete Munro and Eric Valent who had very little chance of turning into 5X keepers. We've always used every minor league draft pick we could even though good prospects were not available. And when we've been close to the top, money was no object.

Each of these transactions costs money, maybe the money that would be the difference between being ahead or behind in this game. And because there are two of us, the money doesn't mean as much as if we were playing separately. If we drop $800 one season into the pot as we did last year, it's only $400 each.

But as a game player, I'm intrigued at moving toward consistent winning of money. It's not easy. Other than Jeff, I'm not sure who is net ahead. Maybe Mark. Maybe Larry. Hell, maybe the Bums. It's not obvious. And it's not obvious because the formula for winning on this basis isn't obvious.

I asked Mark to send me the last 2 years' accounting spreadsheets to get a clue. The pot runs between about 9 and 10 thousand each year, net of league expenses which are about $100 per team, including the entertainment. First place gets 40%, 2nd 25%, 3rd 15%, 4th 10%. Since the average team contributes 8.33% of the pot, and the top teams tend to contribute a little more than that, 4th place is usually about break even. If the Bums finish 4th, they win a little money (hell, they won money in 2003 finishing 5th with only a 5% payout!) If Any 9 or the Old Rips finish 4th, they'll lose money because of their heavy transaction fees. Mark said he thinks he lost money finishing third once because he paid in so much.

My theory is you can't win money consistently unless you finish at least 2nd periodically. If you finish 3rd one year and out of the money the next, you're probably behind. Second place, however, can cover 2 years of out of the money. I don't mention first, because it seems so unattainable. In 2003 when we finished 2nd, we played all out even though it was the best we could finish. And we enjoyed doing so, but Larry and Lou got much smaller payouts without the potential upside of finishing first.

The challenge is that usually if you finish in the top 3, you bust up your team and finish out of it the following season. The three of us did that without even the chance of finishing first. That probably was not smart in playing to make money. Jeff's dominance of BABI has virtually taken away the ability to challenge for first place money. As a result, the best we've been able to hope for was to break even over time. Actually, I don't think that's healthy for the league, but at the same time, it is really challenging to have such a good player to play against.

Until we've actually won the league, we'll probably keep trying to win it all. But I'm going to start paying attention to the nickels and dimes, and try to find a better balance between this year and next year. I do vow this: I'm not going to break up our team if the best I can hope for is 2nd place. Because as Larry and Lou learned in 2003, you might not get 2nd. There's a grand between 2nd and 3rd, and $1500 between 2nd and 4th. If you blow up your team, you'd better finish at least 2nd.

And next year, Jeff's going to return to the pack, if you assholes will stop trading incredible, cheap talent to him. If you must trade away those kind of players, trade them to us.

Player Notes This Week

Brady Clark appears to be the front-runner to replace Scott Podsednik as the starting centerfielder and leadoff batter. Clark's never been an everyday player, but he did post a .385 on-base percentage and 15 stolen bases in 353 at-bats last season, making him a better-than-average leadoff man. It would be reasonable to expect 20 stolen bases from him.

He's probably going to be kept by the Pounders at 10 if there is a good chance he's going to be an everyday player.

The Brewers have so many position battles going on that manager Ned Yost can't be certain what his bench will look like come Opening Day. At third base, Wes Helms, Russell Branyan, and Jeff Cirillo are competing. J.J. Hardy and Bill Hall are vying for the shortstop job, though if Hardy loses out he will probably begin the season in the minors. Dave Krynzel could start in center field, be an extra outfielder, or go to Triple-A.

We're kind of rooting for Hardy to lose out temporarily. Wes Helms might be a bargain.

Doctors in Dallas and Los Angeles diagnosed a sprained annular ligament in David Bell's lower back. Bell received an epidural injection, and was told not to play in any games for three weeks. Bell may have to open the season on the DL and miss the first two weeks. His injury may end up costing Jose Offerman a chance at a bench slot, as the Phillies may opt instead to open the season with six outfielders, giving them more time to decide between Marlon Byrd and Shane Victorino.

This one smells bad.

A high-tech lab in Birmingham, Alabama, revealed why batters have so many problems hitting Yusmeiro Petit, even though he doesn't reach 90 mph. The slow-motion cameras, which take pictures more than 16 times faster than a standard video recorder, showed that Petit manages to keep the ball hidden longer than other pitchers. Petit finished second in the minors in strikeouts last season with 200. The Mets also sent prospects Matt Lindstrom and Gabby Hernandez to the facility.

Who the hell is this guy? Was that Nomo's secret when he first came up?

Alex Cintron went 3-for-3 with a home run today as the Diamondbacks edged the White Sox 4-3. Cintron won't even have an opportunity to compete with shortstop Royce Clayton or second baseman Craig Counsell for a starting job. He should be available in trade talks if any teams have pitching to spare.

I guess he's not a keeper. Might be a real bargain in the auction.

A small fracture was found in Jayson Werth's left wrist as a result of yesterday's HBP, and he's expected to miss at least 10-14 days. X-rays didn't pick it up, so we can only assume Werth had an MRI earlier today. If he's going to miss much more than two weeks, his status for Opening Day would be in doubt. Ricky Ledee, probably a superior hitter against right-handers, is his backup in left field.

Not a good thing. Ledee should go for a buck again. He might not be as bad as he seemed with the Giants.

Kip Wells gave up both Yankee runs today as Pittsburgh and New York played to a 202 tie in nine innings. The results weren't great, but Wells looked just fine. He hit 91-92 on the gun a bunch of times while throwing mostly fastballs to the Yankees' regulars. At this point, there's no longer any reason for the Pirates to view him as the biggest question mark on their staff.

I like this guy. Could be a bargain. George has him at $8 on the cut list.

Javier Vazquez has added a knuckle-curve, which he learned last season from Mike Mussina, to his repertoire. ''I didn't throw it in a game [last season], but this year, I've practiced it in the off-season, and hopefully it's going to work,'' Vazquez said. Scott Hairston tried to hit two knuckle-curves from Vazquez yesterday, and called the pitch ''nasty.''

Don't trust him. Interesting, though.

Rich Aurilia went 3-for-4 with a double in yesterday's intrasquad contest. Aurilia is trying to win a job as a utility man with the Reds. He makes a decent insurance policy at shortstop if Felipe Lopez doesn't work out.

Could be a guy you say "2" on. Hitters park.

Chad Cordero pitched a perfect ninth against the Mets for a save today. Luis Ayala set him up. Manager Frank Robinson used the ''committee'' word again today, but he also indicated that he expected Cordero to get most of the save chances in the early going. It wouldn't be surprising to see Cordero used just like every other closer.

George has Ayala too. Might not keep him.

Ripped

Another sign of spring:

The season is now officially underway as the first trade has now been consummated. The Old Rips send Todd Helton to the Hobo Artillery for Todd Hollandsworth.

Mark has fired his first Salvo of the year. I guess it's just like the selling biz: make enough offers, and eventually someone will bite.

We know the Hobos have always had a hankering for Todd Helton, who is the real deal, and barring injury should be worth the $39. But he won't go for any more, and there are plenty of good players you can spend $39 on.

Meanwhile they gave up a $1 starting outfielder (he looks to be the Cubs LF'er) in Hollandsworth, who has always been a decent though injury prone hitter. Last season he hit .318 with 8 homers in 148 reserve at bats before going out for the season. He's exactly the kind of keeper everyone should want. He could earn over $15 this season. Keepers are about profits.

You can't have enough guys like Hollandsworth. All upside, no downside. When Hank wonders why he's never sniffed the title, he should remember this deal.

It Happens Every Spring

There are many rites of spring, including AMC showing the old Ray Milland movie "It Happens Every Spring" in which he's a chemistry professor and he invents by accident a substance that is "allergic" to wood. He becomes a baseball pitcher for the Cardinals and doctors the ball by wetting a small cloth which he puts in the palm of his glove underneath a small hole. You've got to love a 50+ year old movie that not only champions cheating (how timely!) but also has The Skipper (Alan Hale, Jr.) playing a college baseball player (catcher, naturally).

Yesterday we in BABI witnessed another classic rite of spring with the following email from the Doyle Cartel:

I have the following players available to trade for a closer, obviously it would be a multiple for one deal so would only suit a team that can give up a closer but needs keepers. I also have the first pick in the farm draft that I am willing to trade.

3B RBranyan Mil 7 06X
2B TWalker ChN 9 06
SS JWilson Pit 8 06
OF TRedman Pit 15 05X
P MHampton Atl 12 06X
P LHernandez Was 17 06
P JKennedy Col 5 06X
OF JStokes Fla 05 F
P CHamels Phi 5 F

What an enticing list! And all for just a closer!

As Bluto Brittain put it, "you know it's spring when you get the first ridiculous trade offer from Greg Doyle." Yes, this from the guy who had already offered him a $45 Billy Wagner, who he insists will go for at least that in the auction. I offered to take the under.

This year there is one bona fide closer (Wagner) plus whoever the Colorado guy is available. That's it, unless Adams isn't the answer in Milwaukee. Four teams in BABI have no closer going in, so there is bound to be a saves bidding war, and Mark says he'll be there to price enforce.

As for the Cartel, let's take a look at that list again. It's kind of a list mixed with unexciting guys at decent prices and unexciting guys at not so decent prices.

Branyan will probably go at 7, but he's going to hit .240 and the Brewers still have Wes Helms who sucked last year, but hit 23 dingers in 2003. We like Walker at 9, but he's not worth much more than that. Same thing with Jack Wilson at 8. Walker and Wilson both have the benefit of being middle infielders. Redman is in the last year of his contract, and he's worth just about 15, though he has the benefit of getting a few steals. Hamption pitched well at the end, but he won't go for more than 12 even in a high inflation league. Same with Hernandez at 17, who finished ugly last year. You've got to love a guy who will actually offer Joe Kennedy, a Colorado starter who won't go for more than a buck if he's drafted at all. And I'm not qualified to comment on those farm guys. The #1 draft slot is pretty nice, but not for a real closer.

Early last season, before he traded for Izzy, we told Ken that there weren't going to be any closers in this year's auction, and that you'd better make sure you have something going in. He credits us with this tidbit (he's given us a few over the years including Reitsma). I guess we should have mentioned it to Greg.

Hey, we're still thinking about keeping Valverde. We actually threw his name out to Greg. He wrote back:

Valverde is a good one but not tempting enough at this point for what I think you’d want for him. There may be other setup guys available.

We're not keeping him if he's a setup guy. But he's got a real possibility of being at least a half closer, which would make him worth 14. It'a a longshot, but we're going to wait to find out. Unless Greg wants to fork over that draft pick...

Ring My Bell

From Rotoworld

David Bell is on his way to Dallas and will also journey to Los Angeles in order to find out what's wrong with his back.Maybe Placido Polanco accepting arbitration was a good thing after all. It looks like Bell's problem could be significant.

We could be losing a keeper here.

Also, regarding the Dodgers:

Manager Jim Tracy said J.D. Drew would be his No. 3 hitter.Tracy also said he was leaning toward having left fielder Jayson Werth bat second behind shortstop Cesar Izturis, and outfielder Milton Bradley bat fifth in the order behind Jeff Kent. No surprises here, but if Hee Seop Choi gets off to a good start he could move into the fifth hole, bumping Bradley to sixth, so the Dodgers could go L-R-L-R three through six

Good sign for a couple of Pickled Players.

Cappers' Dapper Keepers

George settled for 6th when he could have made a couple of deals to move up a couple of spots. As a result he kept all of his futures players and now looks to have the deepest squad for 2005. It's not the best keeper list, but he's got more than 10 keepable players for sure.

We're guessing he'll keep the following 10:

1. Guillermo Mota 1-05. He's got to move him to 11. Dynamite value.
2. Trevor Hoffman 11-05. We'd move him to 16, but George may not. We think this is an example of improving his value by increasing the length of his contract.
3. AJ Burnett 7-06. Like Hoffman, George lived through the bad times and now gets the benefits.
4. Jesse Foppert 3-06. See Burnett. He might choose not to keep him, but we would.
5. Sean Casey 14-05. A candidate to be moved up to 19.
6. Ryan Freel 8-06. It took a lot of balls to say 8 on this guy last year, though George was sitting on money at the end of the auction.
7. Dustan Mohr 5-06. Could be a starting OF in Colorado. Even if he's #4 he's a must keeper.
8. Jason Lane 7-06. Looks like he's got a starting job.
9. Vinny Castilla 1-05. Not in Colorado anymore, but you've still got to make him at least 6. We'd stop there because he's in that part of his career where he might end up in the AL at any second.
10. Jose Reyes 10-05. Sure keeper, but a tough call on the extension. We say yes to 15. Unfortunately it's a little bit of a speculation. Major upside here, especially in SB's.

That's 67 for 10 players plus 10 more for Mota and 5 more each for Casey, Castilla and Reyes for a total of 92 for 10. There is not quite as much value here as the Busch Leaguers, but it's close. George has to play hard for this year.

That leaves some decent talent on the sidelines:

Brian Schneider 4-06. He's worth 8-12, and he's improving.
Chad Tracy 5-06. This guy can hit, he qualifies at 3B, and is probably their starting 1B this year. He'll also qualify in the OF eventually. And he turns 25 in May.
Luis Ayala 5-05. Could become a closer, and even if he doesn't, his numbers have been superb the past few years.
Roger Clemens 28-06. We wouldn't keep him, but he'll go for something like this. He was phenomenal last year.
Kip Wells 8-05. He's a good pitcher on a bad team coming off an injured poor season. His ERA in 2003 was 3.28 in 197 IP.

And of course, there's always Joe Borowski 2-05. What's the latest on this guy?

We should consider a trade with George for some of his depth, particularly those top 2 guys on the sidelines. Furthermore, George might keep someone else and cut one of the guys we see as his keepers. He might do a deal like we did with Barry last year to give us our choice of 2 guys after he protects 10 (or 9) to move up in the minor league draft. I'd offer to swap picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds. With the #3 pick, he's got to consider it. This strategy is dependent on our feeling about David Bell (hurt again), JJ Hardy (whether he's going to make the team) and Jose Valverde (possible closer in AZ?).