Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Cappers' Dapper Keepers

George settled for 6th when he could have made a couple of deals to move up a couple of spots. As a result he kept all of his futures players and now looks to have the deepest squad for 2005. It's not the best keeper list, but he's got more than 10 keepable players for sure.

We're guessing he'll keep the following 10:



  1. Guillermo Mota 1-05. He's got to move him to 11. Dynamite value.
  2. Trevor Hoffman 11-05. We'd move him to 16, but George may not. We think this is an example of improving his value by increasing the length of his contract.
  3. AJ Burnett 7-06. Like Hoffman, George lived through the bad times and now gets the benefits.
  4. Jesse Foppert 3-06. See Burnett. He might choose not to keep him, but we would.
  5. Sean Casey 14-05. A candidate to be moved up to 19.
  6. Ryan Freel 8-06. It took a lot of balls to say 8 on this guy last year, though George was sitting on money at the end of the auction.
  7. Dustan Mohr 5-06. Could be a starting OF in Colorado. Even if he's #4 he's a must keeper.
  8. Jason Lane 7-06. Looks like he's got a starting job.
  9. Vinny Castilla 1-05. Not in Colorado anymore, but you've still got to make him at least 6. We'd stop there because he's in that part of his career where he might end up in the AL at any second.
  10. Jose Reyes 10-05. Sure keeper, but a tough call on the extension. We say yes to 15. Unfortunately it's a little bit of a speculation. Major upside here, especially in SB's.

That's 67 for 10 players plus 10 more for Mota and 5 more each for Casey, Castilla and Reyes for a total of 92 for 10. There is not quite as much value here as the Busch Leaguers, but it's close. George has to play hard for this year.

That leaves some decent talent on the sidelines:

Brian Schneider 4-06. He's worth 8-12, and he's improving.
Chad Tracy 5-06. This guy can hit, he qualifies at 3B, and is probably their starting 1B this year. He'll also qualify in the OF eventually. And he turns 25 in May.
Luis Ayala 5-05. Could become a closer, and even if he doesn't, his numbers have been superb the past few years.
Roger Clemens 28-06. We wouldn't keep him, but he'll go for something like this. He was phenomenal last year.
Kip Wells 8-05. He's a good pitcher on a bad team coming off an injured poor season. His ERA in 2003 was 3.28 in 197 IP.

And of course, there's always Joe Borowski 2-05. What's the latest on this guy?

We should consider a trade with George for some of his depth, particularly those top 2 guys on the sidelines. Furthermore, George might keep someone else and cut one of the guys we see as his keepers. He might do a deal like we did with Barry last year to give us our choice of 2 guys after he protects 10 (or 9) to move up in the minor league draft. I'd offer to swap picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds. With the #3 pick, he's got to consider it. This strategy is dependent on our feeling about David Bell (hurt again), JJ Hardy (whether he's going to make the team) and Jose Valverde (possible closer in AZ?).

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