A Dot in the Distance

Today there were some sparks flying on the internet regarding the effect of open FAAB this season. I was going to send a "reply all" email regarding this, but then realized that Noel and Hank hate that, and after all, that’s why I write this thing.

Barry suggested that the close race this season was an outgrowth of open FAAB. He said, tongue in cheek, “yeah ... we wouldn't want another season were six teams are still competing for first place in August ... that would suck (lol).” I particularly like the fact that he refers to 6 teams, not 5 or 7 or 8. Guess who is in sixth.

George, who rarely puts his two cents in, responded, “Not saying that there’s anything definitive, but I wouldn’t attribute open FAAB as the factor. More like injuries to Leaguers and some other teams that had the potential to put some distance in the standings. Where would we be if Gagne was Gagne for the whole season?”

Of course, Mark, who hates open FAAB because it reduces the need for others to trade with him (not that he hasn’t been able to make trades this season) added, “. . . or if George had Bonds all season. Open FAAB is not the reason this year’s race is so close.”

These are all reasonable opinions. Now here is the answer:

The Pecklers were and remain big proponents of open FAAB. As for what causes a race to be close, there are many factors. Open FAAB allows teams to manage their teams more proactively after the draft, giving them some opportunity to fix bad picks that would otherwise drag that team down. The fix comes at a cost, which is FAAB dollars, which are fixed in amount.

Certainly injuries and luck combine with good management and poor management to produce results that affect every race. Referring to Gagne and Bonds is just rehashing the classic woulda couldas we all talk about after the fact. Actually Gagne was hurt before the season started, and the Leaguers could have thrown him back by buying out his contract if they so chose. His injury was obviously bad.

And although Barry’s return date has always been hazy, George spent $31 on him after his 3rd operation of the off season. That was a calculated decision, not a matter of just luck. He could have spent that same money on a hell of a lot of hitters that would have helped him. Plus he has turned down trades for Bonds.

These things have nothing to do with the open FAAB issue. I agree with Mark and George that open FAAB in and of itself does not make for a close race.

However, open FAAB allows teams an opportunity to fix their teams instead of giving up. Why are we so arbitrary about preventing teams from doing so before a certain date? If you think you can be in the race, you’ll try to be in the race, and that makes the race better, and postpones dumping.

I used to make the argument that teams should pay for their draft mistakes. I still believe that. But paying by not being able to even try to fix your team is stupid and self-defeating. And we do pay, by using up our FAAB budgets earlier in the season. It didn’t matter at the major league deadline this season, but it certainly could have, and it certainly has in previous years.

And of course many teams figured out with open FAAB that they can take chances in the draft, particularly with starting pitching. If the guy sucks, throw him back. If he turns out good, you got a bargain. A lot of the pitchers drafted by the Lickers turned out pretty good, and they were cheap. On the other hand, Ken fired off on Dohmann. And soon after, he simply fired him.

If we think that teams don’t pay enough for those mistakes, we can assess a FAAB surcharge for non-open spot replacements before a certain date. This would be a surcharge against the FAAB budget, causing someone to use up their FAAB budget at an even faster rate. I’m actually for this concept, which distinguishes between an injury replacement and a bad choice replacement.

In the end, who knows why we have a good race? Everything is the cause and nothing is the cause. It’s luck, it’s injuries, it’s skill and lack all three. As for the Pecklers, had Milton Bradley not given us the finger and had we spent the $38 we spent for Kaz Matsui and Jose Cruz for Willie Taveras and Chase Utley, we’d be so far ahead of everyone we’d look like a dot in the distance.

That's a shame.