Balancing Next Year's Books

The Giants are somehow still in the thick of it, after three consecutive non-Schmidt stirring pitching performances by Lowry, Morris and Cain. They are only 2 games out in the wild card chase, but keep your perspective: they are still under .500.

Meanwhile, I can’t help thinking about next season. I keep seeing references to the money the Giants have tied up for next season, and the money they will have to spend in the post-old guy era to come. I decided, being an accountant after all, to do some research on this matter. I saw several web sites, but the best appears to be Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which despite some of the complex contracts, is clear and easy to read and follow.

Here are the players who the Giants are absolutely committed to for 2007:

Matheny - $2,250,000
Vizquel - $4,000,000
Winn - $4,000,000
Sweeney - $950,000
Morris - $9,500,000
Lowry - $1,150,000
Worrell - $2,000,000 (ouch)
Benitez - $7,600,000

Total – 4 hitters and 4 pitchers, $31,450,000

In addition, the Giants hold team options for Finley (forget it at $7 million) and Wright (I doubt it at $2.5 million). They will have to pay Finley $1 million and Wright $300,000 to buy out the options. Let’s assume they do that, bringing the total 2007 payroll commitment to $32,750,000.

Before we start filling in the blanks, let’s determine how much the Giants will have to spend. Cot’s lists the 2006 Giants’ Opening Day 25 man roster payroll at a hair over $90 million. I heard a talk recently by the Giants’ CIO that suggested the team’s 2006 payroll was in the low 80’s.

Whatever the base number, the team will have substantially more ticket revenue to spend in 2007 because of the increase in prices connected to the expiration of price caps for initial seat licensees. For example, our tickets in FC 109 are going from $40 (a real bargain) to $70 (still a hell of a lot cheaper than the Warriors). If we assume conservatively that the price of 10,000 seats will increase by an average of $10 per game, that represents $8.1 million in additional revenue. So it’s fair to assume that the Giants will have at least $90 million for payroll next season, and possibly quite a bit more.

So that leaves an additional $57,250,000 to spend beyond their current contractual commitments.

There are a number of young players who will not be eligible for arbitration next season. Let’s assume that the average salary for those players will be $450,000. The 2006 minimum is $327,000, so the $450K projection is probably high. Here are the players you can expect the team to resign, give or take one:

Alfonzo (starting/backup catcher)
Frandsen (backup middle infielder)
Linden (starting/backup outfielder)
Hennessey (starter)
Corriea (long relief, possible starter)
Taschner (middle relief)
Chulk (reliever)
Sanchez (reliever or starter).

Plus, of course, Matt Cain, who could be signed to a long term contract, but let’s assume the Giants wait one more year for that. (That’s 9 players at $450,000, or a total of $4.05 million, leaving $53,200,000 to spend on the following positions:

Starting 1B
Starting 2B
Starting 3B
2 Starting Outfielders
1 Backup Infielder
1 Backup Outfielder
1 Starting Pitcher
1 Lefty Short Reliever

That’s a lot of money for 8 slots. It’s not Yankee money, but it is an average of $6.65 million per player. And it could be more, because with the ticket increases, don’t be surprised if the Giants’ payroll is closer to $100 million next season.

They may also have to assume that Worrell is done despite the guaranteed contract, so there may be one more middle reliever spot open. And of course Matheny may not be able to answer the bell, but that would mean $1 million for a backup catcher, assuming Alfonzo continues as the starter.

So who will be gone and who is coming back?

Bonds – gone. I’ve heard Larry Baer discuss this indirectly, and it sounds like the Giants are just salivating over redistributing his contract money.

Alou – gone. I think we can assume that will be both Alous.

Finley – gone. Here’s your million dollar buyout.

Durham – gone. I know, this is not going to be popular, but he’s 35, he’s been nothing but a frustration until the last 10 weeks, and he’s going to be expensive. It’s time to start over at 2B. And get real - the starter is NOT going to be Frandsen.

Feliz – resigned. He’s arbitration eligible, he has power and he’s a good fielder. Pencil Peter Happy in at $5 million for next year.

Hillenbrand – gone. Like Sean Casey, he’s too soft. Maybe “The Larry” will remember my recommendation of Lyle Overbay, soon to be a free agent, who will probably get an Edgardo Alfonso type contract of 4 years at $30 million or so, and it may be a lot less.

Schmidt – gone. He’s going to be expensive, too expensive for a guy who hasn’t been consistently great for a couple of years. I saw the 16 strikeout game, but he also blew a 4-1 first inning lead this week. The Giants can afford to sign him (at the cost of a cleanup hitting outfielder), but I think they are looking to Sanchez to become that 5th starter. Nonetheless, they are probably going to sign another starter, but not at the $15 million per that Schmidt might command.

Wright – gone. Didn’t you all know that first month was a mirage? Wright was wrong.

Kline – maybe. They have a spot for a lefty reliever (maybe 2). He’s finishing a 2 year contract at $5.5 million. He’s probably going to cost at least $2.5 million. Dads, bring your boys up to be left handed pitchers. I miss Scott Eyre.

Stanton – maybe. I say no, at 40 years old, but he’s still got something in the tank. He’s making $1 million, so he could be a cheaper alternative. Again, they will definitely need at least one lefty reliever other than Sanchez.

Predictions:

This is where Alfonso Soriano is going to end up. The Giants are believers in having a superstar to build the team around, and they like it for marketing too. They’ve got a nice spot at second base (where he wants to play) just waiting for him. And he’s got legitimate power: of his 41 homers, 20 have been at RFK, a notorious pitchers’ park. He’ll hit plenty of shots into those left field bleachers. And I don’t care about his crappy fielding. How do you think the Yankees feel now about the Soriano-ARod deal now? Six years at $18 million per. It’s in the budget.

Assuming the Giants don’t sign Schmidt, they will have the money for another big free agent, maybe not Carlos Lee at $15 million per, but an outfielder at over $10 million. Plus they’ve got room for an Overbay level player at first base. And there you’ve got your instant, new 3-4-5 in the lineup.

There is still money in the budget for another $2.5 million outfielder, a $1 million outfielder, a $1.5 million backup infielder, and a $3 million starting pitcher. Sabean loves to drive us nuts with these kinds of guys (Reggie Sanders, Jose Cruz, Mark Sweeney, Jose Vizcaino, Neifi Perez, Eric Davis, Shinjo-san, Jamey Wright). Let’s hope he does better next year.

Here’s the look of next year’s lineup: Winn, Vizquel, Soriano, big OF, new 1B, small OF/Linden, Feliz, Alfonzo/Matheny. Fill in the names Carlos Lee and Lyle Overbay into the 4 and 5 slots, and that’s not a bad lineup.

And while we’re at it, give Bob Brenley some money to take over.