Sunday, July 16, 2006

Giant Flaws

I caught pieces of the Giants game yesterday. It was obvious when Barry flied out to center with the bases loaded early in the game that the Giants were going to have trouble. The reality is that if the Giants are contenders, they have to beat flawed teams like the Phillies, who basically have Ryan Howard and, uh, uh, David Bell?

I’ve been meaning to do a post-break state of the team. I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating: the Giants can not afford to give up on this season. They have instituted huge ticket price increases in the most expensive seats, and they have to sell those tickets next season. Nobody is going to write a check for $11,000 in order to secure 2 seats to next year’s All-Star game, the most overblown, overrated event in baseball. If they are going to sell those seats, they have to win games between now and the end of September, and preferably a few in October too.

That means Jason Schmidt and Moises Alou aren’t going anywhere. Any deals Sabean makes will involve the last crumbs in the prospect cupboard. If they are going to trade for a first baseman (isn’t that pretty much they only thing we can expect) you have to assume that Niekro will be leaving in that deal along with something in the minors. Maybe they’ll get something for a pitcher, but that pitcher isn’t going to be Cain or Schmidt. Hey, after yesterday’s game, feel free to trade any of those young guys who got beat up.

In the wake of yesterday’s disaster, let’s start with the pitching. We keep hearing about how great the Giants’ starting rotation is, but is anyone really convinced? One thing is sure: if the Giants’ starting pitching isn’t great, this team isn’t going anywhere.

Schmidt had a run a few weeks ago during which he looked like a Cy Young candidate, but despite his fine ERA, he’s not winning games. His fault? Probably not, but the hitting inconsistencies put a lot of pressure on the pitchers to be perfect. I’m glad he’s here for the duration, and I hope he’s part of the future here too, because besides being a great guy, he’s a bona fide ace.

The rest of the rotation is just a bunch question marks. Morris? Lowry? Wright? Cain? Consistently inconsistent. The Giants’ rotation numbers look good because all of them have had a few superb games (though I can’t remember any by Lowry this season), but they’ve all had some stinkers too, including Lowry’s outing yesterday. Hand the man a Bullinger. It is clear that along with Hennessey (also an ugly outing yesterday), this is the rotation we’ve got, so like I say about fantasy teams in September, they just have to perform.

Who the hell knows if this bullpen can do the job? Some days yes, some days no. The good news is Fatmondo is looking better, maybe even good. This is another requirement for success this year. If he can avoid being the evil Benitez, it takes pressure off the rest of the bullpen. I’m going to guess that Sabean lives with this group too, plus those guys “ready” to come back to the big club currently at Fresno (Taschner, Munter, etc.) BTW, didn’t we all expect Merkin Valdez to be helping by now? Maybe there is one of your trading pieces.

The hitting is so dicey. Can we agree yet that Barry doesn’t have it anymore, his recent base stealing antics not withstanding. This is a team without much power, but with some decent balance and depth, so long as Bull Durham keeps up his decent hitting streak.

Clearly they need to fix first base. The Pickled Pecklers believed enough in Niekro to draft him, but he’s been not only a huge disappointment, but the most injured regular, which is ironic in that he is the youngest regular as well. Sweeney is a nice pinch hitter. I keep hearing the name Sean Casey, but anyone, absolutely anyone who has played NL fantasy baseball knows he’s a pansy, the lightest hitting .300 hitter in major league baseball. David Eckstein had way more homers than Casey last year. I’d just as soon give Niekro one more chance. Sabes, find a real name.

My gut says they can do it, but they’ve just got to play better. The NL West again is there for the taking. At least the team is healthy. I’m now headed out with Little Danny to check them out today. All they need to do is win every series for the next two months. Let them start today.

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