Tuesday, November 15, 2005

1 Run

I never posted this on the blog at the end of the season, because it was just too depressing. We missed 3rd place by 1 earned run.

1 earned run. If we had just 1 less earned run or if Any 9 had 1 more earned run, we would have passed them in ERA, a 2 point swing. Cost us 1 large, give or take.

Obviously there are a million points in the season you can point to for 1 earned run. As the owners of temporary Giant closer Tyler Walker, we can all think of a number of beyond ugly blown saves during the season. And had we made the Farnsworth deal with the Rips for Glavine instead of with the Falkuhns for Seo (who did pitch well on the last day of the season), we would have won that category.

But the great moment which I just knew was it occurred during apoker game on the penultimate night of the season. Any 9's Matt Belisle gave up 5 unearned runs that night. The error was by Belisle himself.

1 large.

Mr. Leaguer's Post Mortem

Remember May 2? Here’s the blog for that day?

Meanwhile, Busch Leaguers, 10th place, 41 points, with a grand total of 9 points in pitching. This is not just Gagne. Starting pitching can KILL you. The Leaguers’ starting pitching is killing them. Wolf, Perez, Harang, the bad R. Ortiz (and the good one isn’t all that good!) I don’t think Jeff can fix it. You heard it here.

Two months later:
July 4 Standings:
Any 9 71.5
Pecklers 66.5
Bats 62.5
Hobo 60.5
Cappers 59.5
Leaguers 57.5

Rumors of a trade between the Leaguers and Hobo including Oswalt circulate. The thought that the Leaguers might improve, calls for a PECKLER PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE—a warning of the dire consequences if the Leaguers got Oswalt. Remember this comment?

July 4:
Meanwhile, we have to admit we’re concerned about the Leaguers getting Oswalt. We hope that Hank and Noel know better than to make a deal like that. Oswalt could be worth a dozen points to the Leaguers. If you trade Oswalt, you’ve traded to Jeff one of maybe 5 pitchers in the NL that can make the difference for his team. That could mean big jumps in ERA, WHIP and Wins. Even if Hobo improves their team, they have to be conscious of how much they help a very dangerous competitor. And, although Reggie Sanders is having a career year, he’s going to be 38 this year and he’s always been a first half player. Always. As Sgt. Esterhaus used to say on Hill Street Blues, “be careful out there.”

***********

Just the facts ma’am

***********

Roy Oswalt, Busch Leaguers
IP: 112.33
Ratio 1.38
ERA 3.52
Wins 9

Busch Leaguers with Oswalt:
ERA 3.84 9 points
Ratio 1.2961 10 points
Wins 76 4 points

Busch Leaguers without Oswalt:
ERA 3.87 9 points
Ratio 1.2883 10 points
Wins 67 2 points

Difference: 2 points !

To sum up, had the Leaguers received a year-long dead spot instead of Oswalt, they still would have taken first place.

************

How did the Leaguers do it? 30% wise moves; 70% luck.

Well behind in the pitching categories, and with a staff that included three starters (Harang, an injured Oliver Perez and a possibly injured Ben Sheets), I needed to take some risks. The top pitchers did not seem available, so I decided to bite the bullet and see if I could trade Lidge for two starters with the potential to revitalize my staff. Mark kept calling, but he wanted more than Lidge for pitching, so I looked towards the Faulkuhns. We had a deal on the table—Lidge and two bum pitchers for Kris Benson, Javier Vazquez and Brazoban. 9 a.m. Tuesday morning, I agree to the deal and call Larry. He says it sounds like a go, and he’ll call me back in 15 minutes. No call. At 10:45 a.m. I made the deal with Mark that ended up winning the league for me. I gave up Lidge, Kyle Davies, Choi, Dubois, and got Maddux, Lowe, Abreu and Todd Jones/Benitez. In retrospect, this was a great deal. But it was not easy for me to pull the trigger. Aside from a $13 07 Lidge, Dubois at $7/07 had 7 hrs and 22 rbis in just 130 AB and looked like he could win a job and be a good keeper. Choi at $10/07 had 13 home runs in 187 AB and had (seemingly) flashed his potential with a monster four day stretch in June during which he hit 7 round trippers. Benitez was out for the year, Todd Jones was 37 years old and had an ERA of over 5 and a ratio over 1.5 over the past 5 years. Maddux had a 4.56 ERA and had given up 15 home runs in 96 innings. Abreu, the sure thing, went 7 hr, 50 rbi,13 sb and .251 BA the rest of the way.

Maddux and Lowe certainly had the potential to perform. But Todd Jones outsaving Lidge 24 to 21? Benitez, who was only included in the trade because he was tied to Jones, saving 14 games in 19 innings? And in the crucial batting average category, the Pecklers fold in September (Jose Guillen .130, Andruw Jones .206, Matt Lawton .133, Sean Casey .240) while the .300 Pounders do them one better (Brian Schneider .147, Loduca .191, Loretta .231, Corey Patterson .178)?

Sometimes you just need the Rotisserie Gods to smile on you.

BABI Talk, Postseason Edition

It might require a novelist to effectively convey the drama and pathos this BABI season created. But since I am not a novelist and long ago stopped imagining that I would be, I will skip the drama and pathos in favor of statistics and jokes, not necessarily in that order.

If Jeff Busch weren’t such a good guy and such a gracious winner now would be the time to call him ungentlemanly names. However, sportsmanship dictates that we offer polite congratulations to the rat-bastard who has taken so much of our money over the past few years. As we bow down in humble submission to the Busch Leaguers, it’s fair to ask. What has to happen for this guy to lose? Consider: Eric Gagne out most of the season; Oliver Perez ineffective and then also shelved; Ben Sheets hurt for the second half; Carlos Beltran doing his best Marvin Benard imitation. Where he did he find 75 points? Jeff scored the way he often does, by stockpiling solid players who are steady contributors in multiple categories. Guys like Garrett Atkins, Ramon Hernandez, Placido Polanco, Adam Everett. He assembles a contingent of players whose sum is greater than its parts. But pitching was the key. The categories he absolutely had to move in were ERA and WHIP. A few other owners have suggested that getting Oswalt from Hobo put him over the top, but that’s not really the case. Oswalt’s numbers for Busch were mediocre (3.53 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). What happened was that the rest of the league came back to meet him just as Jeff was improving his numbers. Jeff is also the master at getting valuable “throw-ins.” For example, back in May when he traded with Old Rips to get Abreu, Todd Jones, etc., he also got Armando Benitez. Sure enough, Benitez comes back earlier than expected and finishes with 14 saves for Busch, pushing him to first place in the category. Rat-bastard.

It has to be said: Cappers had the title sitting there for the taking and didn’t take it. George had the best draft and parlayed it into some serious money, but he’s the one guy who could have opened up some ground late in the year and challenged Busch. Think about how far he could have moved with a couple of 2-for-1 trades for Clark or Freel. All he really needed were a couple more .300 hitters to move up in BA, where he earned only 3 points. Unfortunately, the one big trade he made early in the season backfired as Rolen got hurt and Klesko was horrible. It’s hard to say bad things about George’s strategy because he loves his guys so much. He’s like a nurturing mom who can’t let the kids leave the house. But nobody ever won the jackpot without chasing the rainbow. If you wanna win, you gotta be ruthless.

Speaking of ruthless … remember that scene in Glengarry Glen Ross when Alec Baldwin rips Ed Harris a new one for whining about why he can’t make sales? That’s Any 9 on transaction day. “Hit the road, pal. And take that sorry-ass ERA with you.” Ken rented a whole bunch of players, but in the end his success really came down to one guy: Randy Winn. Without his numbers, Any 9 finishes fifth. Winn almost single-handedly earned four points in BA, two in HR and one in RBI. And it seemed like half of those homers came against my pitchers. Rat-bastard.

What is left to say about the Pecklers that they haven’t already said? It was fun to follow their rise and fall in Sour Grapes, and I can’t be too hard on them since they had the balls to put it out there—angst and all—for the rest of us to see. They were in contention right out of the box, and remained there until Busch plowed through the league in September. For all of the rhetoric, though, Josh and Seth really weren’t that active. They made a couple of big trades, including One Which Will Not Be Named, and a couple of free agent pickups, but mostly they stuck with the team they drafted. Nobody really had a career year here, which speaks to the overall quality of the draft. But the Pecklers decision early on not to compete in steals probably doomed their chances for the big prize. Unlike some other categories, steals are a hard place to make up ground, and the Pecklers got only 2 points there. They don’t have any killer keepers and since they traded You Know Who to the Kuhns (was it guilt?), next year may start off on a somewhat sour note.

For a minute there, I thought .300 Pounders might sneak in and win. On Sept. 13, I was in second place, one point from the lead. Over the next three weeks, my offense (what was left of it after injuries and benchings) spiraled into hell with line scores like this: 33 ABs, 2 hits, 1 RBI. You’d think somebody would at least hit a sacrifice fly now and then. I dropped three notches in RBI and lost four points in BA. Hello, fifth place. But if I’m going to whine like this I might as well have Barry write BABI Talk. So, on a more cheerful subject … there’s something to be said for hanging around in the middle of the pack and picking up the crumbs the contenders toss your way. Guys like Noah Lowry, arguably the best pitcher in the league in the second half. (His ERA for the Pecklers was 5.25.) Or Rich Aurilia, who hit .315 with 7 homers and 37 RBI in 200 at bats after being waived. (He hit .202 for Any 9.) Usually it’s me who gives up a guy just before he goes on a tear. And my razor sharp acumen was on full display when I paid $31 to buy rat-bastard Larry Bigbie. For my money I got 2 RBI and a .212 BA. His season mercifully ended when he suffered a strained hamstring, the new code words for “benched indefinitely.” So much for the “Colorado effect.” Some guys are shitty at any elevation.

Hellacious offense, no pitching. That’s Bat of out Hell’s season in a nutshell. Although if you could start the season with the staff Barry ended with, you might have a good shot at winning some of the pitching categories. Zach Duke, Tim Hudson, Mark Prior, Javier Vazquez and Matt Cain make a pretty damn good rotation. Throw in Mike Gonzalez and Brian Fuentes and you’ve got two decent closers. But somehow Barry manages to draft or pick up guys whose numbers are so bad no amount of shutout innings can save his ERA and WHIP. Here are some names (and ERAs) Barry might wish to avoid in future seasons: Joe Leicester (6.75), Zach Day (6.11), Ben Weber (6.35), Ryan Drese (7.88), Ezekial Astacio (9.82). On the bright side, that 12-step program Barry entered last spring seems to have cured his addiction to Giants players. He ended the season with only two on his roster. But we know the truth, Barry: you really wanted Justin Knoedler, didn’t you?

Hate to say I told you so, but … in the midseason BABI Talk, I predicted Iwant2lickBusch would falter in the second half, and it gives me no pleasure to report that they did, dropping to 7th place. Oh, who am I kidding, of course it gives me pleasure to report it. Their second-half pitching numbers got ugly fast as Marquis, Doug Davis and Livan lost their magic. But I will give Lou and Rick credit: they made some of the best picks of the draft among starting pitchers, especially John Patterson and Chris Capuano, who both had breakout years. Unfortunately, they are no longer on the team, nor are any other players who might be keepers (maybe Matt Murton). Not that these guys care about that. They are content to begin the season with a blank slate and buy what they need. It’s a strategy that guarantees fun on draft day. As a strategy for winning, it’s not so great.

I’m not sure what to say about Bleacher Bums. They were totally silent for most of the season in the transaction action, then came roaring out of the chute to pay $98 for Randy Winn, whom they promptly traded. As best I can deduce, Doug and Frank’s game plan is to draft at least five Giants players and finish somewhere between 3rd and 8th place. Well, mission accomplished. At least they are finally rid of oft-injured Kerry Wood, the most overrated pitcher of the past 10 years, whose contract expired. Now they have to deal with Jeff Francoeur, who tore it up for three weeks until pitchers realized his strike zone was wider than a Kirstie Alley party dress. Francoeur takes a walk about as often as a new pope is installed. Which, unfortunately, is also about the frequency of Dem Bums’ pennant aspirations.

Things started so well for Noel and Hank. Edgardo Alfonzo looked like he was 28 again. Corey Patterson was in the major leagues. Todd Helton’s swing hadn’t yet begun to resemble a latter-day Ron Fairly. And then, for some reason, it all went south. It’s tough to put your finger on why Hobo Artillery didn’t contend given the career years some of their players enjoyed. They had the best closer in Cordero, the best starter in Carpenter, the best setup man in Linebrink, the best undervalued breakout star in Utley. What happened? Their demise began with the three guys mentioned above. Alfonzo got hurt and never recovered, Patterson just plain stunk, and Helton had his worst season as a pro. That gutted the offense, and the Artillery ended up shooting blanks. Cordero, Carpenter and Linebrink (who looks like the closer of the future in San Diego) all return at huge bargain prices, along with Willy Taveras, whom I predict will steal 60 bases next year. And in the wings lies Carlos Quentin, former Stanford outfielder, who will be a big run producer once he arrives in the Show, perhaps next year. There is a future in Hobo-land.


The youth movement is on in Falkuhn country, and I’m not talking about Larry’s toddling son. He begins next spring with Jeremy Hermida, Prince Fielder, Josh Willingham, and Chris Duffy for a combined $20. Throw in below-market Dontrelle Willis, Kyle Farnsworth, Marcus Giles, and, ahem, Miguel Cabrera, and here’s your preseason favorite for ’06. Given that Larry will be in contention, I think it’s only fair that he write a blog next season. It wouldn’t take any longer than a typical phone call, which last season included treatises on, among other things, pre-shot routines in golf (extremely important), Karl Rove’s evil minions (marginally important), and all of the reasons why I should trade for Mike Lowell (of absolutely no importance). Kuhn-Dawg, you need a hobby. Or a babysitter.

A handful of National Leaguers did not play for the Old Rips. Perhaps they weren’t able to walk, or had momentarily left the country, or were under indictment. Most of those who were ambulatory and breathing suited up for the Rips. You see, Mark is all about inclusiveness. Bring us your poor, your infirm, your third-string middle infielders. We’ll take them all. Not quite all. Eighty-five, to be precise. That’s one of every five National Leaguers (and a couple of American Leaguers). Mark used nine catchers, 19 outfielders, 29 pitchers, and Hector Luna. He had Santiago, Garabito, Cirillo, Aquino, Quintero and Cordero (Will, not Chad). He had two Hills, one Hall and a Lane. He traded most of his team for Brad Lidge, and for some reason did not trade Victor Santos. Who knows what lies in store for the Rips next season, but this much we can say with certainty: Many will be chosen. A couple of them won’t suck too badly.

Greg made some good second-half moves to put Doyle Cartel in position for contention next year. Freel, Weeks, Wright and Burke are a solid nucleus with big upside. Imagine what Miguel Cabrera would look like alongside those guys. Whew. If you were rating how well Greg maximized his assets, you’d have to drop his grade from A to C on the basis of the Cabrera trade alone. But take heart, Greg: you always have Jason Werth to fall back on.

And now this year’s awards:

MVP
Chris Carpenter. A three-category stud (and real-life Cy Young winner) for $1.

Best bargain
Tony Clark, 30 homers, 87 RBI and a .302 BA for $1. Nobody else was even close.

Best line by an owner trying to unload an underachieving player
Larry Kuhn, describing Mike Lowell. “He leads the team in doubles.”

See you in April!