Lou's List

We're talking about Lou's other list, his keeper list. If you thought the Old Rips' 2005 keeper list is a little lean, you should see Lou's. It's possible Lou is going to just throw them ALL back.

His possibles are:

• Rafael Furcal 33-06 He's fully priced, but he's one of the few base stealers fairly sure of getting near if not above 30, so he's a rarity you've got to pay for these days.
• Barry Bonds 40-06 We'd probably throw him back because he's not likely to go for much more, and might be cheaper. He'll probably earn it, though.
• Jose Mesa 23-06 This one is sad. Mesa is probably his best keeper. Now that is a frightening thought.

He's got a couple of others like Grudz at7 and Moeller at 1 but really, who really would keep those guys? We'd rather start clean.

Hey, Lou is the one guy who wants to have a season where we get to throw them all back. Maybe this is his year. The only problem is, he'll be the only one to do it.

One final note: Lou only kept a few guys last year and still finished 3rd. Give the guy credit, he did a hell of a job with his team last year. He's our BABI general manager of the year for 2004.

Unfortunately, it's 2005. Good luck, Lou.

The Results of Challenging Busch

What usually happens when you try to win it all (or lately, try to finish 2nd) is that the following season's auction is a disaster. The 2004 2nd place winner, the Old Rips, is no exception.

Who have they got to keep? They have a few:

• Greg Aquino 7-06x Great pickup by Mark. Probably keepable even if Valverde gets the job in the spring.
• Al Leiter 8-05x Moving from a good pitcher's park to a great one. Take your few bucks in profit here.
• Scott Rolen 33-05 Probably not extendable, but reasonably priced if he does it again.
• Bobby Abreu 40-06 Four categories, and paying for it.
• Armando Benitez 30-06 Priced fairly, and given the lack of closers, a must keeper. Beware: he may not like San Francisco's cold weather.

That's 118 for only 5 players. Good players, but only 5. Mark is not likely to keep fully priced Todd Helton 39-05 or Chipper Jones 33-06. Maybe on Larry Walker at 17-06. Fair prices, but they probably don't go for much more.

That's what you get when you play full out. In fact, it's probably a better start than Lou's got (for another day). But as for the Old Rips, we can only say "That's a shame."

Lost in Translation

In case I don't have a chance to write tomorrow (with Charles Karault, I'll be on the road), here is a quick extra one for Saturday.

That 10th spot on our roster could easily have been filled by any of 3 guys we were excited to keep in 2005 who were lost to other leagues. They were:

• Tony Batista 12-06 Off to Fukyouova, Japan or somewhere like that. He gave us 32/110/14 in addition to that ugly .241 BA for a dozen dollars. He was one of the real bargains of the 2004 draft.
• Jay Payton 5-06X He looked like a great pickup until he headed to the Bosox. His numbers for the year were weak, but he hit .360 for us after we stole him and threw in 3 HR's and 14 RBI's in just over a month.
• Dustin Hermanson 2-06 We gave up Kent and Williams to Lou for this guy, and he gave us 16 saves and the promise of more this year. The Giants, I have it on the best of authority, really wanted to sign this guy to be their closer, but they couldn't make the deal, and so had to settle for spending real money for Benitez.

We probably were hit the hardest of any team in the keepers we lost. But most everyone was hurt:

• Any 9 lost Randy Johnson 28-06.
• The Bums lost Adrian Beltre 22-06 and Carl Pavano 8-06.
• Busch Leaguers lost Steve Finley 18-06 and Matt Clement 6-05
• The Cartel lost Eli Marrero 3-06. I wouldn't have included Marrero here, but I never want to waste an opportunity to bring up Marrero's great value.
• Hobo lost Richie Sexson 28-05.
• Old Rips lost Jason Kendall 17-06 and David Wells 13-06.
• Lou lost Scott Podsednik 36-06. Not everyone would keep him, but 70 steals is a throwback to the Vince Coleman era.

Lesson learned: never play for next year. It might not come.

The Brilliant Bums

We want to give a nod to the Bleacher Bums, those Modesto twins Doug and Frank, who have somehow finished fourth and fifth the past two years despite making a grand total two FAAB pickups.

We don't know how these guys do it, exactly, but they've developed some kind of new paradigm in rotisserie baseball. We give full credit to the most creative geniuses in BABI for sure, and who knows what larger territory. We bet there is no true rotisserie league in America in which a team finished fifth and made money with no transactions.

In 2004 these guys let half their pitching staff freeze, finished with a total of 3 saves (2 from Dempster and 1 from Dreifort) and still finished 4th with 34 pitching points. The key was that they spent 78 dollars on 5 starters, none of whom hurt them during the season. They were:

• Jason Schmidt 20-05C They purchased him way back when at a time he was hurt.
• Kerry Wood 23-05 They love this guy, and thought he had a disappointing great season, he didn't put up bad numbers.
• Jake Peavy 10-05 He really came into his own, and they'll have to consider extending him in 2005.
• Carl Pavano 8-06 A true bargain of the auction, and we kick ourselves for not saying "9", except we had absolutely no money and couldn't. That said, he's an American Leaguer now.
• Brad Penny 17-06 Doesn't get the wins on that bad team, but he's matured into the stud we always expected him to be.

What a great staff. They had some injuries during the year or else they wouldn't have blown that ratio point by picking up Shawn Estes, who is now keepable at $5, we'd like to remind them. At one point we offered them the steal magnate, Scott Podsednik along with Woody Williams for any of the above 5 pitchers. They passed (a mistake, as Pods kept stealing like crazy and Woody finished the season stronger than he started it). But it was at that moment that we realized these guys actually had a plan for their team as opposed to randomly playing for next year.

We can't remember any team basing their success on top quality starting pitching, which is such a risky strategy. But they'll all be back again, save Pavano in 2005. Throw in Jason Bay, a 1 dollar Wily Mo Pena (10 letters, 5 syllables), Kahlil Green and Pedro Feliz. (all picked up in the 2004 auction) throw in a $2 Dempster and a $1 Ankiel, and they have an excellent core of players at 10 for $118, despite losing Pavano and their $22 superstar Adrian Beltre to the AL. If they can restrain the love of their Giants at the auction, maybe this year they'll make the push to the real race instead of the mid-level race they've gotten used to.

We're big fans of players who do not follow the conventional wisdom. We had absolutely no objection the crazy Ken's strategy to blow the innings minimum in order to finish 8th rather than 7th (missed it by not reading Larry's set of rules). Jeff Busch is a true contrarian, bidding big when others are not and waiting patiently when others are overspending early.

But no one compares to Doug and Frank. You never know what they'll do next. Hey, maybe this year they'll buy a closer! They're true originals. We love having them in BABI.

Busch Leaguers

As we enter the 2005 season, all hail the repeat champion Busch Leaguers. The run is much more than having a cheap Pujols (18) and Gagne (12), both of whom are entering the last year of their contracts. Jeff still has to put together a team that can win. I'll bet over half the guys in BABI would not have won the league had they started with the same guys.

Furthermore, Jeff has a hard time both at the draft (he's often targetted) and in trades (many of us are wary of dealing with him to let him improve his team, though that hasn't stopped him from picking up Pujols, Gagne and Lidge). His success is a testament to superb talent evalation skills and constant attention to improving his team.

We made one deal with him last year: we gave him Dennis Tankersley's open spot so he could activate someone off the dl for the Colorado $1 Luis Gonzalez, who we liked on draft day. Jeff offered, we accepted. Easy deal. He's actually pretty easy to deal with, because knowing that teams are wary of trading with him, he always offers reasonable deals. Right now he's offering Gagne, given that he'll never be worth more than he is right now at $12 entering his last season. Someone might bite, but I'm sure he's looking for a longer term keeper. We're satisfied with Looper, and we surely don't want to help him build for the 2006 season.

So he's on the cusp of losing the players who are the backbone of his team. Meanwhile, although he didn't win by much, here he is with another phenomenal list of keepers. Meanwhile, Mark and Lou's team are pretty well decimated, just as our team and Larry's team were the year before. Here is our best guess at his keeper list:

1. C - R. Hernandez 12-06 Solid bat at a fair price
2. MI - D. Jimenez 8-05x Nice improving player at a nice price
3. 1B - A. Pujols 18-05C Stan Musial at a bargain price
4. OF - J. Burnitz 12-05 Probably not extendable outside of Colorado. Decent profit this season, but probably won't have the numbers he had last year.
5. OF - R. Sanders 18-06 Not too big a profit, but he's reliable in 3 categories despite being 37.
6. RP - E. Gagne 12-05C Showing some wear, and the team won't be as good, but still a great bargain.
7. RP - B. Lidge 3-05 Almost sure to raise him to 13. Young stud we originally drafted at 3, then traded to Lou to get Ken Griffey. Not our best moment, but certainly not Lou's best moment to let Busch get him.
8. SP - B. Sheets 12-05 Some might extend him, particularly if he was on a better team, but we think not. Became a wonderful numbers pitcher last season.
9. SP - O. Perez 3-06 Solid starting pitcher at a bargain price. He might well extend him next year.
10. SP - J. Thomson 13-06 He might keep Harang at $1, but Thomson was a solid starter last year on a good team who surely won't go cheaper. He finally showed what he could do away from Colorado.

That's 121 players for 5 hitters and 3 starters and 2 top closers. He'll need some speed, and he'll need to fill out the power, but he's got a great core, and he can afford anyone, including a top starter (not sure who that might be) and/or Beltran. He'll have 159 for the remaining 15 players. All he has to do is lock in his profits, avoid injury, pick up a couple of cheap guys who work out for either trading purposes or for 2006, and avoid stepping on his dick, and he'll have a sure contender again. As always, he's going to be tough competition.

Jeff always has said the great thing about this game is finding the balance between this year and next year. He does it better than anyone. We are strongly against playing for next year, but it's tough not to rip your team to shreads while going for the win. We just don't know how he does it. Meanwhile, we're going to be all over him at the auction.

$30+

Several years ago we got into a bidding war with the Old Rips over Gary Sheffield. We bid $55 for him. Bluto Brittain shook his head in disbelief. On "going twice" Jeff Busch bid $56, and Sheffield was a Busch Leaguer. Sheffield went on to have a mediocre season.

What the hell were we thinking to bid $55?

It's always an interesting gambit to be bidding past $30 on a player. If you are in the $30's or higher, you are talking blue chipper. There are a lot of pros and cons on getting a player of that cost.

Pros:

• You have to spend your money, and you may as well spend some of it on top quality players who are more likely to perform well.
• Some players are specialists, and if you get one, you don't have to spend much more on the category. Steals and saves come to mind, but sluggers also fit the mold.
• Four category players never come cheap, but they are valuable.

Cons:

• Any $30+ player who gets injured will kill you.
• Any $30+ player who sucks will kill you.
• Spending big money early might leave you out of the auction end game where the bargains may be.
• These players are only tradable to teams playing for this year.

We've always been of a mind to purchase a couple of expensive players. We actually like getting some cheap players at the end of the draft, because if you hit on a couple, they help you this year, next year and they are tradable to everyone. So it can be within the budget to have a couple of these guys.

Furthermore, in most seasons, in a league with a ton of inflation, many of these players are relative bargains. Often times there are bidding wars for the $15-$25 players because at that point in the auction, there are still teams with money, but the supply of good players is getting short.

Last season, however, the bidding war was on the expensive guys. There was a hole in the middle of the draft, and Jeff Busch, waiting patiently, grabbed 4 outfielders in the high teens. This was really the key to his winning season. Historically the Busch Leaguers have always bought expensive players and then were masters of the end game. But last year when Billy Wagner went for $45, it was clear that big money was going to be spent on the superstars. Jeff sensed the extreme overbidding and waited patiently for the bargains to come.

We could see it too, as we were tracking inflation, and it was obvious that the league was spending too much early in the auction. We had already kept Thome at $38, and were committed to Podsednik, who we bought at $36 (we'd do that again-the guy had 70 steals), and a closer (we bought Looper at $25 because you've got to have 1 closer). Unfortunately, we also were committed to Jeff Kent, who we bought at our planned number of $32. That's when we were pretty much out of the running for the middle priced guys, a few of whom turned out to be bargains. That was one too many expensive guys, and we lost all flexibility. We also liked Todd Walker at 2B, who we could have bought for $11, leaving us an extra $21 to spend on Reggie Sanders or Steve Finley, plus an extra few bucks that would have made a BIG difference in that crappy outfield we purchased with no money.

This year our most expensive keeper is Edmonds at $29. We're likely to buy somebody expensive - after all, we have got to get some steals on this team. But this time we pledge to pay attention to our inflation monitoring system. If the high priced guys are too high, we'll wait and focus on the middle level players. Ken always tries to have all of his hitters be regular players, which is impossible when you drop $38 on Thome and $36 on Podsednik. It's a nice concept.

On the other hand, we also like the idea of simply bidding $1 more on anyone Busch bids on.

Ichiro

We're rarely going to mention an AL player (an oxymoron) in this blog, but I've been thinking about Ichiro Suzuki, and the incredible season he had in 2004. 262 hits, .372 BA, but most impressive for a fantasy player with a high average, an incredible 704 AB's.

Those kind of quality at bats have an incredible effect on BA. I ran some figures on the 2004 Pickled Pecklers batting average to see what kind of an effect Ichiro would have had. Our base numbers were:

AB's 6225
Hits 1677
BA .26940

Not very good, but not totally horrible either.

To see the effect of Ichiro, we backed out JD Drew's BA stats and added in Ichiro's. Now Drew had a career year last year, hitting .305 with 518 AB's and 158 hits. Subtracting Drew and adding Ichiro, our team BA went up from .26940 to .27780, over 8 points! That would have been worth 5 points in BA alone.

We took it a step further. We backed out Drew and added Barry Bonds, who hit .362, albeit with only 373 AB's and 135 hits. Our team average only moved up to .27204. So Bonds improved us 2-1/2 points in BA, meaning his 362 wasn't worth that much more than Drew's 305 with more at bats.

Then we went one more step. We backed out Bonds' figures and added Ichiro's. Our BA went up to .27517. Substituting Ichiro for Bonds on our team increased our our BA almost 6 points.

That's the power of 704 quality at bats. I wonder if anyone in major league history has had a higher batting average than Ichiro with at least 704 at bats. My guess is no. What an amazing fantasy stat and season he had.

Keepers

Here is a look at the Pickled Pecklers for 2005 as spring training begins.

Hitters:

Michael Barrett - C 06-3
We got Barrett from Lou in the Podsednik trade. We expect numbers similar to last year, which makes him worth 10-13.

Luis Gonzalez (Col) 2B/OF 06-1
We got Gonzo 2 from Jeff for Tankersley's open spot.

David Bell 3B 06-4
We got Bell from Lou in the Podsednik trade. He had a nice year last year, but we're worried about his nagging back.

Jim Edmonds OF 06-29
We got Edmonds from Ken in a deal he wishes he didn't make for Thome and Pierzinski and Deivi Cruz. He got nowhere as Thome played hurt the rest of the way and we got a stud at an excellent price.

JD Drew OF 05-20
Hey, someone we actually drafted, though it was 2 years ago. 2004 was the season we've all been waiting for after a career on the DL. We tried to trade this guy a million times, and no one wanted him. Now in LA, we can't extend him. Our rule - only extend if he's a bargain or if it increases his trade value. We can't imagine increasing Drew's salary to 25 will increase his trade value. We'll take the few bucks of value he gives and wish him a fond farewell in October.

Jayson Werth OF 06-1
The only one of those crummy outfielders we took last year to be worth much. All credit to the Doc, who targetted him all the way. We offered him around too, even at the rules meeting during which he hit a homer on TV in front of us against the Giants. Power, some speed, youth, and an injured knee. He'll be extendable next year.

Pitchers:

Jeff Suppan SP 05-3
We got Suppan from Barry in the preseason trade last year along with Jason Larue for our #1 minor league pick. We thought we'd end up with either Suppan or Traschel, and we got the slightly more valuable pitcher. Not because he's any good, but because he's on a great team. Not extendable, obviously.

Brett Tomko SP 06X-5
When we sold out for the season, we grabbed Tomko who was showing signs of reviving. He got beat up a couple more times, then was lights out the rest of the way. Unfortunately, he didn't get that last win in the Giants' penultimate game down in LA despite leaving with a shutout after 7 innings. Steve Finley, grand slam, end of playoff run. But Tomko looked great. We're just hoping he starts pitching well before August this year.

Braden Looper RP 06-25
You've got to have a closer, and this year you've really got to have one going into the season. Wagner might be the only closer available, and at least 4 teams won't have one going into the draft. Looper had a nice season in 2004, the Mets have improved, and he's priced fairly. No brainer.

So that's 9 players who are sure keepers. It's possible we've got another to get to the limit.

Best chance is probably JJ Hardy, on our farm. It looks like he may be the starter at shortstop for the Brewskies this season, which would make him an automatic keeper at 5. We're hoping they send him down so we can keep him on the farm on draft day.

Jose Valverde RP 06-14 won the closer job for a while in Arizona, but disappeared for 4 months onto the DL with arm trouble. Unless they give him the closer job in spring training, he's not keepable at 14. He's got stuff, but he's got an ugly motion that puts serious pressure on his shoulder. I predict a career of arm trouble. He does look like a closer though, particularly the way he wears his cap askew.

Kaz Ishii is a buck. And he'll still be a buck when he's taken in the auction. If he's taken in the auction. We've already got 2 guys who may not have pristine numbers.

Eric Valent 06x-5 has power and is versatile. He's probably going to get 250-300 at bats for the Mets, but he's not likely to go for any more than 5. Good bargain at 2, though.

Royse Clayton is only worth 8 in Colorado. Maybe.

We like Matt Kata 06-2. But that infield in Arizona has gotten awfully crowded, and with his truncated season last year, it's hard to imagine him going for any more than 2.

Ricky Ledee is only a buck, but his numbers with the Giants make Ron Calloway's season look good.

Tomorrow, the coulda shouldas.

We Wuz Robbed

This blog will be a chronicle of the 2005 MLB season as seen through the eyes of the Pickled Pecklers, 2004 10th place finishers in the Bay Area Baseball Illusions NL only rotisserie league. We are also SF Giant fans and season ticket holders.

Even though it's still February, and it's just pitchers and catchers in the rain down in the Arizona desert, since Bruce Jenkins brought back the 3 Dot Lounge this week, it's time to start our baseball commentary. We'll focus later on our team (the PP's) and our team (the Giants) soon enough.

Today let's hear it for Robb Nen, now officially a part of baseball history. Nen has been a hot button on the SF sports talk shows the past two years, as the Giants shelled out about $18 million for nary a pitch. That money could have been spent, so it is said, on Vlad the Impaler or some other real stick to hit behind BALCO Barry.

Too true. But don't blame Nen, and don't blame the Giants. Nen earned every penny. He pitched in 2002 until his arm literally came off. He had no business still being out there for the fatal game six catastrophe. He wasn't running on fumes, there were no fumes. He went out there with nothing but chutzpah and pain, hoping to do it one last time. Well, he got that part right. It was one last time, one ugly last time. He's retiring young because in 2002, when the Giants needed him the most, he was there, litteraly leaving it all out on the field.

It was a nice career for the guy who reached 300 saves at a younger age than anyone in MLB history. It's too bad for him and for Giants fans that it ended the way it did. There will always be a stool at the bar for him in the Pecklers' clubhouse. Like Pierre, the famous French aviator, when Robb Nen finally went down, he went down in flames. Here's to him.