Thursday, February 24, 2005

$30+

Several years ago we got into a bidding war with the Old Rips over Gary Sheffield. We bid $55 for him. Bluto Brittain shook his head in disbelief. On "going twice" Jeff Busch bid $56, and Sheffield was a Busch Leaguer. Sheffield went on to have a mediocre season.

What the hell were we thinking to bid $55?

It's always an interesting gambit to be bidding past $30 on a player. If you are in the $30's or higher, you are talking blue chipper. There are a lot of pros and cons on getting a player of that cost.

Pros:
  • You have to spend your money, and you may as well spend some of it on top quality players who are more likely to perform well.
  • Some players are specialists, and if you get one, you don't have to spend much more on the category. Steals and saves come to mind, but sluggers also fit the mold.
  • Four category players never come cheap, but they are valuable.

Cons:
  • Any $30+ player who gets injured will kill you.
  • Any $30+ player who sucks will kill you.
  • Spending big money early might leave you out of the auction end game where the bargains may be.
  • These players are only tradable to teams playing for this year.
We've always been of a mind to purchase a couple of expensive players. We actually like getting some cheap players at the end of the draft, because if you hit on a couple, they help you this year, next year and they are tradable to everyone. So it can be within the budget to have a couple of these guys.

Furthermore, in most seasons, in a league with a ton of inflation, many of these players are relative bargains. Often times there are bidding wars for the $15-$25 players because at that point in the auction, there are still teams with money, but the supply of good players is getting short.

Last season, however, the bidding war was on the expensive guys. There was a hole in the middle of the draft, and Jeff Busch, waiting patiently, grabbed 4 outfielders in the high teens. This was really the key to his winning season. Historically the Busch Leaguers have always bought expensive players and then were masters of the end game. But last year when Billy Wagner went for $45, it was clear that big money was going to be spent on the superstars. Jeff sensed the extreme overbidding and waited patiently for the bargains to come.

We could see it too, as we were tracking inflation, and it was obvious that the league was spending too much early in the auction. We had already kept Thome at $38, and were committed to Podsednik, who we bought at $36 (we'd do that again-the guy had 70 steals), and a closer (we bought Looper at $25 because you've got to have 1 closer). Unfortunately, we also were committed to Jeff Kent, who we bought at our planned number of $32. That's when we were pretty much out of the running for the middle priced guys, a few of whom turned out to be bargains. That was one too many expensive guys, and we lost all flexibility. We also liked Todd Walker at 2B, who we could have bought for $11, leaving us an extra $21 to spend on Reggie Sanders or Steve Finley, plus an extra few bucks that would have made a BIG difference in that crappy outfield we purchased with no money.

This year our most expensive keeper is Edmonds at $29. We're likely to buy somebody expensive - after all, we have got to get some steals on this team. But this time we pledge to pay attention to our inflation monitoring system. If the high priced guys are too high, we'll wait and focus on the middle level players. Ken always tries to have all of his hitters be regular players, which is impossible when you drop $38 on Thome and $36 on Podsednik. It's a nice concept.

On the other hand, we also like the idea of simply bidding $1 more on anyone Busch bids on.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home