Saturday, April 07, 2007

Accept or Deny?

So it’s the morning after (actually, it’s late afternoon, but I’ve lost all sense of day and time). I woke up and turned to see what (besides my dog Max) I had been sleeping with.

On the bed stand next to me was my trusty BABI roster printout. I came home from the auction last night, plugged the old Diebold Laptop into the docking station, fired up Rotolab, and printed out the league rosters. I fell asleep enamored with the 2007 Pickled Pecklers.

But now I was awake. I lifted my left eyelid to spy the roster sheet only inches away. Now that it was morning, and I had fresh perspective, had I been sleeping with a piglet?

Everyone in BABI thinks our now dueling Dell laptops give us some kind of edge. Maybe, though I don’t think so. It is still all about judgment, and the Pickled Pecklers will not cede their judgment to a box. If the team is good, we did it.

We work hard in the weeks leading to the draft. We chat on the phone for 40 minutes every morning while I am driving to work. The Doc, who has been working a lot of 3P-1A shifts, drags out of bed when I call him at 8A. We chat until I hit the Twin Peaks downgrade, when my cell bugs out, and then we reconnect at the bottom of the hill. We email each other frequently with things we’ve read, ideas, and many second thoughts. We work hard. And if the team sucks, we take responsibility for that too.

We thought our keeper list was right at the top of the bottom half of the league. Losing $5 Josh Barfield hurt. We had decent keepers, but no one special, like Hanley Ramirez at $11. Our best keeper, Adam Wainright at $4, would have been worth a hell of a lot more as a closer.

We were realistic that we didn’t sell out hard enough last year. The Doc told me to bid $5 on Luke Scott and Chris Duncan last year. We had Scott Thorman on our team at 5-08X during the summer, and we waived him to pick up Todd Linden instead of waiving the unkeepable Gabe Gross. We did pick up Kaz Matsui, and we ended up talking ourselves into keeping Linden, and we were able to trade pickups Randy Wolf and Ollie Perez for a better draft position. But we really wanted to finish 7th. So we never sold out completely.

Like Bats did. What a keeper list! And by virtually all standards, Bats is the leader in the clubhouse before and after the auction. Unfortunately for the Old Bat, waking up next to his roster this morning is the best sex he’s had in a while.

Back to us. We had several strategies. First, Derrick Lee. We had no first basemen, and they were awfully short in supply. Lee is the only one under $59 who steals any bases. We wanted him, but expected high 40’s. We also like Adam LaRoche, pegging him at 32. We figured Nomar and Helton would end up too expensive, and from there it was a long way down to Thorman and Craig Wilson. We even had a contingency plan for Tony Clark at a buck. So obviously, we really wanted Lee. And to keep him affordable, we needed him to go before Pujols.

We’ve been in this league a long time. For the first time ever, we drew #1 out of the hat. Glory Be! Derrick Lee was going to go before Pujols! And so, after the grounds crew mopped up the remains of Boof’s wine-soaked former laptop, I was on my feet, proposing Derrick Lee, 1B, Chicago -- $37. After a moment of silence, Boof muttered “that ought to do it.” We knew it wouldn’t but it was some beneficial table talk, because it softened the bidding. We heard 38, 39, and pause, “going once” and we said $40. Derrick Lee, 2007 Pickled Peckler, $5 less than we were willing to go. Geo, sitting on our left, said “that’s a good price.” We certainly thought so. We had taken care of our #1 checklist item.

Pujols followed immediately. Five bids only: $35, $45, $50, $51, $59. Sold to the Cartel, who still had about $1000 to spend.

Kenny 9 keeps his promises. He said he was going to extend Ryan Howard to 2011. Really, 2011, at a $30 salary. He also said he was going to go to $59 on Jose Reyes. Well, he didn’t have to, getting him for $58.

Zito for $17. Rollins too much at $43. Barrett to whoever would say $20. Pierre 41, Peavy 34. The Lickers tried to steal Armando by making him the first closer, but here in Homerville, they had to pay $23.

Tankersley $10. Francis, $10. TEN??? And TEN??? What the….

Then Kenny 9 must have borrowed some money from Mr. Leaguer to buy Wagner for $38. The Cardinal-lovin’ Pounders paid $24 for Izzy. Dave Ross went for a quite reasonable $12 (if you like that kind of thing). Beltran (who we had interest in at the right price) didn’t go for it. His big 2-homer game this week earned him a $47 price. Hoffman, $34.

Kenny 9 then outbid us for Bill Hall at $33 and followed with the first real bargain since Lee: Aaron Harang for $19. Where he got the money, I have no idea, but their next player would bring their max bid down to $12, and I’m still in the middle of page 1 of 5 of the auction list.

Freel $30. Zambrano, the good one, $26. Barry, Giant Barry, full priced at $25. The Cartel then bought some more crap for cheap prices (Eaton at $3 and Duke at $9). Saito $28 to the Bums. How can those Giant nuts buy the Dodger closer? Ben Sheets will earn his $31 only if he pitches every start all season long.

Carlos Lee $44. Hey, we like Carlos Lee. We bought him last year for $40. But $44? The Old Bat really had profits to burn. Salomon Torres and his 3 quick saves went for $23.

And finally, we bought another player. The Doc says he was always interested in Edgar Renteria, but I never once put him on a mock roster. We had kept 2 middle infielders, Kaz and Izturis, and my mantra was if we had to move Cesar to corner, it would be a sign our team sucked. Now it was looking like he was on the move. But $25 was such a reasonable price for Edgar, in light of all this spending, he was irresistible.

Now for some editing. We wanted a cheaper closer. We were thinking Izzy from the start, and probably should have said $25, but we always were thinking $22 or $23. We also had interest in Benitez, but at maybe $18, not $23. We hated Weathers and Dempster. Having kept 4 solid starting pitchers for a total of $26, we planned to buy 4 or 5 future closers: Soriano, Gonzalez (hopefully both of them), Madson, Wuertz, Linebrink, Meredith (the Doc called me at 10P on the way home from the game Wednesday raving about Cla), Rauch, and if we were running out of money, Corpas and Burgos. There were probably a few more names on that list including a few of those Florida guys (we liked Owens, the ex-catcher with the crazy strikeout numbers), but you get the idea. We were even considering blowing off any real closer.

Well, not really. The last acceptable closer came up – Flash Gordon. I told the Doc we had to get serious. He’s old, he’s scary, and he’s pretty good. We had saved some money so far. Our Rotolab projected value was rising despite the inflation, not falling. We could stretch it. And $26 seemed pretty reasonable. On the other hand, my first words to The Doc buying him was “we MUST buy Madson now.” We were committed, and budgeted $8 for him. His horrible start allowed us to eventually buy him for $4.

And we bought Meredith and Gonzalez. And at the end, our last pick, Rauch. And we really tried for Soriano. We bid $11 on him. It was way above our budget. We loved the idea of Soriano AND Gonzalez, one sure closer for next year at less than half price. But Geo just wouldn’t let it happen. We suspect he got the right guy.

In the midst of this, Andruw Jones started stalling out in the mid-30’s. I turned to the Doc and said “He’s good.” He replied, “Really good.” We bid 36 or 37. Someone said $38. Going twice.

I pause here to say that I told The Doc I wasn’t going to make any of the bids, it was all him. I get too excited, which is how we ended up with Klesko last year. But when I heard “Going Twice,” I couldn’t hold back. “39!” And he was ours. I turned sheepishly to The Doc and said “Sorry, I hope you like him.” He said, “No problem, I like him.”

Only two players went for more than that after Jones. The first was Cabrera at $47. We love Miggy, but when we were discussing his potential stats at a break with Kenny 9 and Kevin 300, I said “125.” Kenny 9 asked “RBI’s?” I answered, “No, intentional walks.” Why would anyone pitch with men on base to Cabrera with Jacobs behind him? I was happy with Andruw and the extra $8.

Aramis Ramirez at $44 was the other. I bring him up because first, he’s a hell of a player. But second, Derrick Lee was $4 cheaper. Excuse me, but who is the hitting star on the Cubs? And just for kicks, let’s throw in the 15 steals Lee brings to the party.

At this point the inflation was about gone. I told The Doc we still had some dough - $52 for 10 players. I said we were almost out of $20 hitters. The Doc didn’t quite believe me. He’ll listen next year. I was right. Ask Mr. Leaguer.

At this point Mr. Leaguer was sitting on a pile of cash, over $100. I told The Doc he had to start spending. Kent for 22 got him under $100. Weathers $15, the last closer, fair price for a crappy, scary guy. And then a long wait, while guys like Dunn and Kearns and Helms and Kouzmanoff (how does he NOT say 19?) and Moises and Brian Giles (good price at 21, and a sign that the inflation was gone, gone, gone), and the last $20 player, Rowand. Silence. Not a word from Mr. Leaguer when it counted (right before “Gone”).

When the $20 players were gone, so were most of the teeners too. We were now into deflation. I told The Doc we had to buy somebody. We only paid $4 for Jack Wilson. Not a bad buy, but we still had $44. We started to pay attention. Floyd, who we almost kept last year at $26, was a Peckler again at only $9. Craig Wilson, our only bad mistake, now seemed like the best hitter out there, so we bought him. We started lining up for Juan (My Wrist No Good For Hitting or Sex) Encarnacion. Someone bought up Valentin, who was one of the top hitters left. Six bucks later he’s Pickled. Deflation.

Meanwhile Mr. Leaguer is still sitting on his cash like it’s the middle of the thirties. Ethier, Suppan, Murton and then Matt Morris, $5. Spend it, man. OK, I like Gorzellany, but that isn’t going to get rid of it. OK, you can afford to overspend on Victorino. You’re going to waste a pile of that money, it’s clear. The best player this league has ever seen – what the hell were you thinking? He eventually burned $15 of his budget.

We bid the $12 we had on Encarnacion, but Larry Dot Net went another buck. We always liked Endy Chavez, so we paid $7. We needed some more speed. We should have gone to $11 on Ryan Theriot, we now realized, instead of buying Craig Wilson.

Deflation. Everyone was a bargain. Frandsen was the first $1 player. There would be 39 more before it was over. Lots of 2’s and 3’s as well. We’ve never seen anything like it. Hobo, $6 for 6 hitters plus some middle reliever named something like Cunnilingus for a buck too. Seven buck players to the Lickers. Seven to Kenny 9, plus a couple of $2 players. The Cartel bought a $59 pitching staff which includes $23 Torres and $15 keeper Greg Maddux. We’ve never seen anything like it.

It made money king. Pick who you like. And this brings us to our end, which was, like it is occasionally, premature. We were the first team out, for the first time ever. We had no end game. We had filled the hitting, and had $9 for 2 pitchers. We had not yet purchased a starter, just our original four keepers (Webb 19, Wainright 4, Patterson 2, and Hensley 1). We had a super-secret plan.

We had the #2 and #4 picks in the minor league draft. We knew #2 was reserved for James Loney. We love Loney. We don’t think he’ll make the Hall of Fame, but we think he can hit major league pitching, and we just love the idea of a $5 first baseman for the next couple of seasons. We were counting on Larry Dot Net to take Lincecum or Bailey #1, and Loney would be ours. But our special idea was Mike Pelfrey at #4.

Pelfrey isn’t the best of the minor league lot. But what makes him special is that he actually made the major league team. He’s the Mets’ #5 starter. But they don’t need a #5 starter the first week, so they sent him down for a week to make a start while he waits for his start in the majors. He was a farm eligible instant starter. Our plan: buy a cheap guy on the DL and bring up Pelfrey to replace him, reserving the injured pitcher. Our #1 idea: Eddie Guardaro. But Guardado went for 7. Pedro went for 11. Too much. We wanted a bargain.

And here he came, walking down the pike, the next guy on our list. Kerry Wood was nominated for a buck. We waited. Someone bid 2. At “Going Twice” we bid 3. He was ours, to be reserved and replaced for a while with our #5 starter, Mike Pelfrey. Clever, eh? We were up next, with $6 for whoever we wanted. Jon Rauch got pushed to $4, and we ended our night by buying the Nationals’ closer in August, 2007 for $5.

We didn’t buy a single $1 player in the year of deflation. Mr. Leaguer emailed us this morning that his software has us projected for 2nd place behind Bats. So does our software. I opened my eyes and looked at the roster. She was looking pretty hot. Pickled Pecklers, 2007 – Accept or Deny? We accept.

1 Comments:

Blogger Meatstout said...

Fun to see how an auction strategy plays out, especially with two heads figuring it out. However, you missed out on that $1 end game fun--plus we all missed out on a $1 keeper who is this year's Hensley.

8:12 PM  

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