Friday, December 29, 2006

The Other Barry

The Giants signed Barry Zito yesterday for 7 years at $126 million, the richest contract for a pitcher ever. Any fantasy player will tell you that the Giants have chosen the riskiest way to build a team, betting a lot of chips on a pitcher.

Yes, Zito has been durable. And yes, he’s relatively young. But he’s likely to miss big parts of a couple of years of this contract. And because he’s been so durable, he has already pitched a lot of innings.

How did they end up here? Two months ago it was clear the Giants planned to rebuild the hitting part of the ballclub and go forward with their young pitching staff. Today they have most of the usual suspects in their lineups, and they have a brand new ace.

My theory is that it all goes back to the 2002 post-season, and the almost simultaneous signing of two free agents: Edgardo Alfonso and Ray Durham.

The Giants had just lost (blown) that 7 game World Series, and their second best hitter, Jeff Kent, took off for Houston. Their manager, Dusty Baker, was shunted off to the Windy City. They had some free agent money to spend, and they committed about $60 million of it to Alfonso and Durham over 4 years.

That didn’t work out too well.

Alfonso was a bust. He hit a total of 26 homers and drove in a total of 206 runs during the term of that 4 year contract, not counting however many he had in the minors. Nice guy, good fielder. Huge bust.

We think of Ray Durham as not terribly durable. His hammys are always giving him trouble. But he’s actually never had less than 410 at bats with the Giants, never hit less than .282, never had an on base % less than .356.

On the other hand, he’s never had appreciably more than any of these numbers either. He stole way less bases than we expected - he had 23 or more steals in each of the 7 seasons prior to joining the Giants, but no more than 10 since. He had a sudden power surge this last season with 26, but had only 8, 17 and 12 in the first 3 years here. He has never had 150 hits in a season in San Francisco, but never had less than that previously, other than his shortened rookie season.

To say that most Giants fans were disappointed that they re-upped Ray Ray this season is more than a modest understatement.

Sixty million bucks over 4 years, fifteen million a year. Had the Giants waited one season, that money could have bought them….Vlad Guerrero.

In 2003, Vlad entered the last year of his contract. The entire baseball world knew that he was going to be a free agent in 2004. Barry was coming to the end of his career, and the Giants KNOW that they must always have a marquee player on their roster for marketing purposes. When the Giants signed Alfonso and Durham, they doomed their interest in Guerrero. He signed in 2004 with the Angels for $70 million over five years plus a club option for the sixth year at $15 million. Suddenly that sounds dirt cheap.

I’m not going to mention that the last two years might have been quite different for the Giants had Guerrero been in their outfield instead of any of those old guys. Well, I guess I just did mention it. The point is as we prepare for 2007, if Vlad were in the fold, this team would be mighty different, and the Giants would not have felt the enormous pressure to make a big splash with the last big name out there, Barry Zito. Instead, we’re also stuck for one more year with the other Barry, and with Ray Ray and Peter Happy and the newly versatile Rich Aurilia.

Ah, what might have been.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Bags

Jeff Bagwell, owner of the ugliest batting stance this side of Moises Alou, hung it up after 15 seasons, all with the Astros. His final at bat was a ground out to second in the seventh inning of game four of the 2005 World Series.

He was never the best first baseman in the game, but he was always among them. You never heard a bad word uttered about him. A solid pro.

So – Hall of Fame?

He’s certainly earned consideration for the hall. Bags hit 449 homers (33rd all-time) and drove in 1,528 runs (41st all-time) while hitting .297 and .540. He finished his career 56th in total bases (4,213), 31st in extra-base hits (969). He’s also 35th in slugging %, 44th in on-base %.

He won 1 MVP award. No homer crowns. No batting crowns (2nd in 1994 with .368). He was a consistent top 10 RBI man, but only topped the NL once.

To paraphrase Rutherford (played by Richard Masur) in Risky Business, “He’s done some solid work here, but is it really Princeton work?”

Bags got screwed. His career year was 1994, the year of the strike. But he can’t use that as an excuse: he broke his hand a couple of days before the strike began. He was on pace for 60 homers, but it was not to be, strike or no strike.

He had 43 HR-31 SB in 1996, 42-30 in 1999. Has any other first baseman ever gone 30-30? I looked at the list of 48 30-30 seasons through Soriano’s in 2006, and although a couple of guys have played first base (Shawn Green, Larry Walker), they were principally outfielders. So this is unique. And he is one of only 10 that have done it more than once. Bags finished with 202 steals, more than Mickey Mantle, and a LOT more than Lou Gehrig and Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew and other Hall of Fame first basemen.

The fact is Bags was cursed to be among the best for a long time, but was never actually the best. He was consistent in his ability to play the game at a high level, and he was durable. He played at least 142 games in 12 of his 15 seasons, and played in at least 156 games in 10 of those seasons. His career was shorter than even Lou Gehrig’s, which was 16 plus a stub of a season in 1939. Bags had less of everything except speed.

But it’s not fair to compare him to Gehrig, the greatest. Except he was like Gehrig in the way he was integral to the fabric of his team, the only team he ever played for in the majors. Bagwell was the face of the Astros, a perennial contender, just as the Iron Horse was the captain of the Yankees, the only player so chosen until modern times. Day after day, opposing pitchers had to deal with him in the middle of that lineup. It was always a scary proposition. Bags was a tough out, despite that horrible looking stance.

Who were his closest BR comparisons? Frank Thomas, Garry Sheffield, Fred McGriff, Willie Stargell, Andres Galarraga, Ken Griffey, Orlando Cepeda, Mickey Mantle, Willie McCovey and Duke Snider. All fine players (I’m kind of surprised at seeing Galarraga there). Mostly hall of famers or future members. They are all the real deal.

I’m not sure his career stats earned it, but Bags is a guy I want in the Hall. He makes the Hall of Fame better by his presence. He was a quality baseball player, a quality teammate, and the real deal as an opponent, virtually every day for 15 years. The baseball world was better for his finally making it to the Series in 2005, despite his inability to swing anymore. Vote him in.

Happy New Year, Chris Brown

Thanks to my buddy and seat license partner, Dale, for starting me on writing something again for this space.

Chris Brown died this week, age 45.

"Chris the Slacker" as he was known during his days as a Giant third baseman died Tuesday under mysterious circumstances. It seems the house in Houston where he had been staying (apparently an abandoned house with no furniture) burned in what police and fire officials suspect was arson. Brown was in the house at the time of the fire and died as a result of burns.

Brown, who played with Darryl Strawberry at Crenshaw High School in Los Angeles, came up through the Giants' system and played on the major league team in 1985 and 1986. He was a member of the All-Rookie team in 1985 and made the NL All-Star team in 1986. In 1987 the Giants traded him to San Diego, a deal that brought another troubled soul, Kevin Mitchell, to the Giants.

The "Slacker" title originated during Brown's time in SF. During the 1986 season, he complained of shoulder soreness, but an examination found no problem with the shoulder. Teammates and fans accused him of dogging it, and that reputation was with him the rest of his stay in SF.

The Slacker was a tremendous prospect who flamed out. Chris Brown's final season was 1989. He played 17 games for Detroit that season and was waived for good in May at the age of 27. This once can't miss prospect ended his major league career with only 449 games, 1,523 at bats, 38 homers and a .269 batting average. He ended up with almost twice as many errors (65) as homers.

From the perspective of Giants fans, the best thing about Brown was that he brought Kevin Mitchell to San Francisco. Mitch may have had his problems, but in 1989, the season Brown's carrer ended, he got us to a World Series. He was the 1989 MVP, and that season led the NL in homers (47), RBIs (125), slugging (.635), total bases (345) and extra base hits (87), as well as barehanded catches in the outfield (1). He was my all-time favorite Giant (Will Clark being a close second). On my desk at home I've got a Mitch bobblehead in a Sonoma Crushers uniform with the gold tooth!

The entire trade, by the way, was quite interesting - Brown, Mark Davis and Mark Grant went to San Diego for Mitch, Craig Lefferts and Dave Dravecky.

Mark Davis also was great in 1989, winning the Cy Young award as the closer for the Padres. He had 44 saves and an ERA of 1.85. He finished 6th in the MVP voting that season behind Mitchell, Clark, Pedro Guerrero, Ryne Sandberg and Howard Johnson (in the second of his three 30-30 seasons). He pitched until 1997, but had only 1 season after 1989 win an ERA under 5.

Dave Dravecky pitched his horrific last game in 1989. In mid-pitch his arm snapped in two after a return from cancer surgery. He only pitched in 2 games that season - the glorious, moving, inspiring, victorious comeback outing the week before, and that disasterous final outing. He remains a huge favorite in San Francisco despite and likely partly because of the absence of his left arm.

Craig Lefferts started the 1989 season as the Giants' closer, getting 20 saves, but the Giants made a mid-season deal that brought 1987 Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and the pennant to San Francisco. Bedrock was the closer through the end of the season and into the World Series (the earthquake series), in which he didn't get any saves as the Giants were shut out. The Giants dumped Lefferts at the end of the 89 season. The Bedrock deal, by the way, was Bedrock and a bum (Rick Parker) for Terry Mullholland (still pitching!), Dennis Cook and Charlie Hayes. There are some names from the past!

Mark Grant stuck around for a while, but was pretty much a bum.

Here's to Chris Brown, a part of the rich fabric of San Francisco baseball history, albeit more in his absence. So much potential. There is nothing in life worse than wasted potential.